Q: So is this just the usual spring bump, or actual signs of some sort of bottoming/recovery

A: "Unemployment is rising, mortgage rates are rising, the economy is (maybe) still in recession. Hard to imagine we are done"

This is what I mean about your tendencies - post the whole thing instead of the self-serving tidbit:

CurbedWire: So what's the biggest piece of bad news?
JMillzInDaHouse: Well, it's more like, what are they key stats for the quarter. The news wasn't much of a surprise, its already a weak market
CurbedWire: BORING
CurbedWire: give us the most soul-crushing stat
JMillzInDaHouse: Sales activity down 50.3% YOY
CurbedWire: now give us the most it'll-be-fine stat
JMillzInDaHouse: Man, you are all over the map here, ok
JMillzInDaHouse: Listing discount, the spread between contract price and list price improved over last quarter from 12.4% to 7.8%
JMillzInDaHouse: That means sellers are starting to price lower when apartment enters the market but its still way high. 10 year normal range is 2% to 3%
CurbedWire: So that's kind of like the reality check stat?
JMillzInDaHouse: Yeah - as that stat gets higher it means that sellers are chasing the market. Its falling faster than they can process
CurbedWire: How accurate are these numbers at reflecting the CURRENT market? Are they majorly lagging?
JMillzInDaHouse: A lot has been made of that, but there isn't a better way at the moment
JMillzInDaHouse: Closed sales absolutely lag the market, but contract data that is used and analyzed is random. So its not reliable
CurbedWire: Yeah, but since the market share of new development is way down, that means many of these sales may have been negotiated not long ago, right?
JMillzInDaHouse: Absolutely - thats why I break out new dev and re-sales. New dev has screwed up the overall numbers for three years
JMillzInDaHouse: New dev closings represent a meeting of the minds that occurred 12-18 months ago and random because it depends on what building mixes were at the time and how fast they were built
CurbedWire: so given the decline in new dev. closings, this could actually be the most "accurate" market report in a while, no?
JMillzInDaHouse: When looking at the total numbers - yes
JMillzInDaHouse: Lowest market share of new dev closings in a few years and the high priced projects like 15CPW and The Plaza are through the system
CurbedWire: How much of this sales uptick/green shoots chatter is spin?
JMillzInDaHouse: Look, we had a dearth of activity in the first 3-4 months of 2009. It was a late rally with a very busy May that got everyone jazzed.
JMillzInDaHouse: But really, this was a seasonal uptick combined with a release of pentup demand from earlier in the year
CurbedWire: So is this just the usual spring bump, or actual signs of some sort of bottoming/recovery
JMillzInDaHouse: Unemployment is rising, mortgage rates are rising, the economy is (maybe) still in recession. Hard to imagine we are done
JMillzInDaHouse: However, it may be that the worst is behind us
CurbedWire: Do you think the government released that terrible unemployment report today just to force more price cuts on new Williamsburg condos?
JMillzInDaHouse: Absolutely - it was a total scam.
JMillzInDaHouse: Remember, the world revolves around NYC. Curbed taught me that.
CurbedWire: give me one prediction for the Q3 market report
JMillzInDaHouse: It will be delivered after the end of the third quarter.
CurbedWire: STOP THE PRESSES
JMillzInDaHouse: I went out on a limb on that one.
CurbedWire: Do you ever get early copies of the other brokerages' reports, and then go back and change your numbers if they seem out of whack?
JMillzInDaHouse: Haha. I don't read the other reports when they are released. I am asked about them quite a bit when ours comes out during interviews but I'm not getting into a he said she said thing. I didn't write them so I don't know much about them. Plus, I see enough numbers with my own.
CurbedWire: on the night after the reports come out, do you all get together for a tall glass of scotch and swap war stories?
JMillzInDaHouse: No, I actually go home and hang out with my family and NOT talk about real estate. I'm boring that way. The last thing I need is my 10 year old asking me if first time buyers are going to continue to be a force in the market with mortgage rates rising.

http://curbed.com/archives/2009/07/02/curbed_imterview_jonathan_miller_talks_manhattan_massacre.php#more

Damned if I do, damned if I don't. I literally had someone complain when I posted too much of something. A lot of the rest gets boring.

And did you just try and say that what *I* do is self serving.

Careful there, kettle...

It was more that I was embarassed that I found it on curbed.

Actually, now that I think of it... bjw, didn't you scold me for that once? What are you doing over there?

IMO, common sense should indicate that this correction is nowhere near done. Geez, the stock market is basically trading at levels that were seen well over a decade ago and down for 2009. In addition, the NY state fiscal situation is a train wreck waiting to happen, empty retail space is on the rise and employment is tepid at best. There is also financial regulation to contend with plus the possible overhaul of the tax code, both of which are on a fast track.

Peak to trough correction in RE are easily 4-5 years in their duration. It is entirely possible and normal to have slight recovery periods during a decline but the macro economic forces will continue to exert their downward pressures for some time into the future. The damage to consumer balance sheets has been severe and to add insult to injury, the employment situation is well, very difficult and continues to detoriate. Just can't see the sun just yet.

And, lets not forget that Miller has now been accused of fudging the numbers on the brokerage's behalf...

I just found it interesting that even he said that.