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The Oro seems to be moving along nicely now. >48% sold, and with the nearby towers filling up, the building will soon be in the middle of a thriving neighborhood.
How do you get the % sold?
False. ORO is still over priced. Toren is over priced as well. There are some sweet deals in Manhattan these days. ORO might only be filling due to rent-to-own... don't count on the neighborhood changing for at least 4 years. Aside from the new condos here in DoBro, there are actually less retail stores in DoBro than before.
more than 200 units left~
Wrong guys.... they're less than 10 unites from crossing the 50% Rubicon. Just about 150 are sold, with more than 100 occupied already. With Toren and Avalon alone, that's 1K units in 3 blocks, and if you add in Bell Tel, Brooklyner, and 80DKLB, that's abother 1500 units. Then go ahead and add in the 3 new hotels about to open, the Avalon Willoughby and CityPoint that get started this Spring, and you have more than enough Critical Mass to start changing the streetscape
Toren is overpriced though, 575/sq foot seems to move the condos nicely. Oro is trading close to what sold the Forte out.
Only 92 are sold, 58 in contract, which might or might not close. Some people might walk, it's happened elsewhere. Unless you are shilling for a competing property, this sort of thread just end up backfiring. You are more likely to draw out the sceptics by exaggerating the "good" news.
in NYC, sold includes units in Contract.... any units in contract when into that state post economic downturn, and will result in closed units, so there you have your 50% sold.
The building is finished being built, and is more than 1/3 occupied by owner residents.
Why the hate?
Oro is no where near the prices that Forte sold out at. Forte was at $456 per sqft. Show me a single unit at ORO with that rate.
It will be 4 years before the landscape changes,
As mentioned: "(Oro,) Toren and Avalon alone, that's 1K units in 3 blocks"
Then: Bell Tel, Brooklyner, and 80DKLB, that's abother 1500 units
3 hotels? and the fairytale ORO 2?
Finally: Ingersoll Houses and Whitman Houses will be finished and occupied before the neighborhood really changes...
Here's a good project for you to do. Take a walk up Flatbush and turn left at Fulton St. Count how much vacant retail space there is. That part of the neighborhood has been occupied for the last 10 years with people with far more equity than you have at ORO. They've had plenty of capital to spend... but no retail spaces seem to thrive there. You know why? Because Flatbush Extension will never be Montague St.
My advice to you, if don't how for change in this neighborhood, it hasn't changed in 10 years. You better learn to love it the way it is or you'll be greatly disappointed within 4 years.
BTW, you forgot Brooklyn Gold in your estimates... which doesn't help doesn't help my argument much, but still.
Oro, there is no "hate", just facts. Are facts hateful? Not in my opinion. You can still dream, just don't confuse with reality.
For example, in contract is not the same thing as sold, in NYC or anywhere else. Some of these units have been in contract for two and a half years. Will the prospective buyers really go through with a $600,000 1-bedroom, when the latest closings are in the low 400's? The developer would love $200,000 "gifts" from early contract buyers, but this is rather unlikely.
What they need to do is to adapt to the new market reality: make deals where possible, reprice at $450-500 psf and see what happens. It would be more productive than this painfully daft marketing ploy: "I have an idea! I'll go on Streeteasy and announce we're almost 50% sold."
It looks to me like Fulton Street is doing just fine, about as fine as any other NYC commercial strip. I'll grant you we're in a deep economic recession, but just like what happened in the early 90's, this will lift, and probably soon, and there will be an additional 3-4 thousand professionals living in Downtown. Face it, you guys chose poorly... all the Brooklyn and Queens neighborhoods with easy access to Manhattan via transit, and services nearby will grow in the midterm due to NYC growing.
Furthermore, the fact that these buildings are selling, and clearing 50% in this market, says very positive things.
Not to mention City Point just cleared another hurdle on it's way to a Q1 start date, and demo is beginning soon on the Tillary/Flatbush hotel site.
The only reason Forte sold out so quickly was because it was a foreclosure...and the only way one can expect Forte-like prices is if Toren/Oro foreclose. Forte was less than 30% sold for years when it tanked (and it entered the market at more than $800/sq ft)...both Oro and Toren are at 50% (banks and gov consider in-contract as sold), so chanced of them foreclosing at this point, while not impossible, are less likely. Who at those buildings has been in contract for 2.5 years? That makes no sense - Oro's been finished since Oct 2009. Toren started selling in April 2008.
"It looks to me like Fulton Street is doing just fine"
If a four blocks of artwork is doing just fine... you're insane. Those are 4 full blocks of retail vacancies.
so do you guys think the area will be better in 4 years? how do you expected to change? I think if you do not mind walking the place is great as it is (15 mins to FG, Dumbo,Caroll Gardens and Brooklyn Heights) and very close to manhattan by subway or cab (very easy to get). If you want to have everything by your doorstep I do not think the area will never deliver. I guess it is a matter of taste. About pricing, one of the recent sales went for 550sqft so I guess it is not terribly overpriced. Forte sold out below 500 but it all happended in a couple of weeks. The developer at Oro might be a bit more patient.
Check for yourself: the listings in contract show the date the contract was signed. Lots of summer 2007 dates.
That building along Flatbush with the artwork is an office building, where they were unifying the space for a large tenant, probably a chain store or restaurant. The Applebees there is a mega success. Considering how horrible the retail economy is, Brooklyn is doing very well. The influx of several thousand new residents with disposable income won't hurt either.
Go back in your time machine to Smith Street in the early 90's. How is this really any different? Not to say the results will be the same, but if you have people, services usually follow unless there is come compelling reason otherwise
And some people that closed in summer 2007, move in the second half of 2009, when the building was initially occupied. Over 100 apartments are lived in now, so some people must have closed already.
I'll admit that the Toren is overpirced considering it is essentially the same product as Oro, with a slightly nicer edge that isn't worth 200/sq foot.
Any of the good Forte units went for over 500/sq foot, unless you wanted a living room on the D-line with a wall on the lot-line.
I also think one of the problems with assessing sales at the oro is that streeteasy does not reports units that went into contract after rose associated took over. for some reasons they decided not to report them, so there is no actual way to verify how many apt actually went into contract recently.
Good luck with the time machine and the positive thinking!
If I were you, I would look at my 92 sales, my 58 summer 1997 underwater contracts, my slowish rentals, my competition, my crappy location, and make adjustments where I can. Hint: a time machine is not the correct tool for your problem.
It's a real-politik situation. Smart growth dictates that mass transit, density and proximity are the lead indicators for successful managed growth. Downtown Brooklyn has subway access, allowance for a high density and proximity to Manhattan. The fact that there are a number of high rise towers built, and quite a few more coming online in the next few years that are condo/rental/hotel/dormitory mean that people are coming into the neighborhood. The fact that the area is adjacent to 3 "prime" neighborhoods should also be an indicator that it has strong potential to start to gel as a neighborhood (something it never did since there were never alot of people living there).
maly, if what you wrote was a response to me, I was just addressing a quite different point. the units shown in contract in streeteasy are almost surely gone (they count for zero). those contracts were signed when douglas elliman was the sales rep. that is a given. However, the new sales team has repeated in several occasions (newspapers and else) that in the past four months more than 45 new contracts were signed, which would make the building half/sold in contract. Streeteasy shows zero apt in contract with rose associates, suggesting that they did not report them (or that they had zero units in contract which is a bit implausible). the new contracts would definitely close, unless the buyers are out of their minds. The problem is, there is now way to verify how many contract were actually signed.
No, I was referring to oro616 time machine explanation. I too believe the 58 in contract are DOA. Who knows what's going on, but the secrecy can only mean bad news.
I was renting in Newport,Jersey city and considered buying there. There were times taxi driver asked me, "why do you live in jersey city? is there safe?" then i knew the driver hasn't been there for a long time. Newport has changed a lot in the past decade, still not a lot of shops/ restaurants, except the mall. Not the entire jersey city improved of course, but a few high rise rental buildings made a change to the neighborhood already.
I chose a one bedroom in Oro. Thanks to the 15 year tax abatement in NYC, i only have to pay $10/ month tax, instead of $500/month in jersey city. Plus i don't need to pay PATH nor tolls for taxi. I know it's not gonna be eastablished neighborhood like park slope, but i know there are not many one-stop-to-manhattan options. Let's say a few years later i have kids and need a bigger place, considering the higher RE tax in jersey city, I believe i can collect more rents.
jersey city is a real shit hole
It's going to take a lot more than that to make this 'neighborhood' (and I use that term loosely) livable