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Gary is actually going off Robert Shiller's numbers. Hopefully you know who he is...
(and he made his name with calling two events... after a pretty good career to start)
gary's claim to fame is similar last name to robert shiller
To paraphrase Paul Samuelson "Gary Shilling has correctly called 345 of the last two major downturns." He has been consistently bearish for decades. That's what he does.
Shiller, on the other hand, knows what he talks about. He may not always be correct, but he always has something worthwhile to say.
> He may not always be correct,
When wasn't he?
He called the stock market crash... he called the real estate crash... and then he called "now is a good time to buy" within 4 days of the stock market bottom!
But you said to buy stocks on May 1, 2012.
No, I didn't... sorry.
Sorry, you are right - you didn't recommend others buy, you only said you were buying.
No, I didn't do that either.
For March 2012:
"March Case Shiller Misses Expectations: Housing Set For Quadruple Dip"
"( )many of the C-grade economists out there predicted that housing would bottom in March (this time for real) and it would be smooth sailing from there. Alas, the just released March Case Shiller data puts this latest speculation very much in doubt (once again), following a miss of consensus expectations in the Top 20 Composite of a 0.20% increase, printing at half that, or 0.09%, and more importantly, a decline from the February rate of increase, which was 0.15%. The non-seasonally adjusted number declined by 0.03%, the 7th consecutive drop in a row.
All this begs the question: did housing just quadruple dip, with a February local extreme in the Sequential rate of change. As the chart below shows, we had comparable peaks in the summer of 2009, in April 2010, and again in April 2011, following which the downward slide resumed every single time once the temporary benefits of monetary and fiscal easing subsided. Also, recall that March was the last month receiving benefits of a record warm winter: in effect a mini demand pull program. And now comes the hangover.
Bottom line: based on a broad index, housing is about to decline once again, and make a total joke out of all those who, yet again, made "bold" annual housing bottom predictions. "
I can't believe it's been two years since I started this thread....
Five cities reached new lows in property values since the housing slump began, including Atlanta, Chicago, Las Vegas, New York and Portland, Oregon
Funny,I guess one can paint any story, however this mornings headlines are
the March index rose 0.09% month over month and the 20 city index has now risen for two straight months while the 2.57% YoY decline was teh smallest since Dec 2010.
In terms of Case-Shiller, we've already seen the "quadruple dip." That happened three months ago in February, when the December numbers came out, and I wrote about it at the time.
However, I think the headlines that you're seeing are an attempt to reconcile Case-Shiller, which still looks negative, with the positive numbers from both the government (FHFA) and industry (NAR).
DG Neary Realty
1-months 3-months 1-year 2-years 3-years
earlier earlier earlier earlier earlier
US Composite-20 -0.03% -1.84% -2.57% -6.45% -4.26%
Phoenix 2.17% 4.39% 6.09% -2.87% -0.51%
Seattle 1.74% 0.18% -1.31% -8.69% -11.96%
Dallas 1.56% 1.16% 1.49% -1.15% 1.90%
Denver 1.52% 0.03% 2.57% -1.32% 2.73%
Tampa 1.28% 0.33% -0.96% -8.04% -11.30%
Charlotte 1.17% 0.16% 0.44% -4.68% -8.37%
San Francisco 1.04% -2.16% -2.99% -7.90% 6.99%
Washington DC 0.96% -1.07% -0.59% 0.61% 6.35%
Miami 0.91% 2.22% 2.53% -3.69% -5.37%
1-months 3-months 1-year 2-years 3-years
earlier earlier earlier earlier earlier
Cleveland 0.45% -3.17% -2.44% -8.39% -2.28%
San Diego 0.41% -0.49% -2.73% -6.58% 3.53%
Los Angeles 0.13% -1.46% -4.78% -6.38% -0.72%
Las Vegas -0.02% -0.93% -7.52% -12.39% -22.88%
Boston -0.21% -1.76% -0.96% -3.61% 0.06%
Portland -0.46% -2.82% -2.76% -10.17% -12.64%
New York -0.85% -2.84% -2.75% -6.73% -9.06%
Atlanta -0.91% -5.46% -17.74% -20.44% -21.45%
Minneapolis -0.92% -2.73% 3.25% -6.85% -0.34%
Chicago -2.51% -6.75% -7.05% -14.15% -16.11%
Detroit -4.43% -5.43% 2.27% -1.51% -6.03%
brooks is desperate for a bear to play with.
Wow, I was wrong. I did not call a quadruple dip!
Just trending down
unless of course you are actually in the market trying to buy an apartment. then it isn't trending down at all.
if you listen to a RE broker, I am sure that's what they'll tell you.
Streeteasy condo index keeps rising, MoM and Yoy.
If you pay attention to what what posters are on this board say who are looking, they'll say ir.
But keep trying brooks. If mental masturbation works for your lonely ass.
Go find a few more price choppers too
"Streeteasy condo index keeps rising, MoM and Yoy."
"keeps rising".. that's a funny way to put it when it is double digits below peak... and the same level as August 2010... not to mention 2005.
And in real terms... ouch.
"Case Shiller Top 20 Composite Rose In April, Posting Smaller Increase Than In March"
"Remember April? That's when the US stock market peaked. It also occurred right after March when the peak effect of the record warm winter weather hit, resulting in peak forward pulled demand. Sure enough, today's Case Shiller index confirmed that: in April the Top 20 SA Composite Index rose by a respectable 0.67%: not a bad sign considering until February it had declined for 20 consecutive months. The issue, however, is that the April increase was already lower than the March revision, which in turn had seen a 0.73% increase which was the highest since August 2009. Which means precisely what the chart below indicates: a continuous lower trendline in home prices, with delayed monthly noise based on what the S&P does.
And with the S&P plunging in May, expect a comparable response in housing price when the data is finally released. At the end of July. By then, however, we may have bigger issues. Finally, those hoping that the Fed is looking at this indicator as permissive of more negative feedback easing, will be disappointed: the Fed will need to see at least one full period of a sustained decline.
So far not so good."
I think it's asking a lot of the C-S to assume that it's finely-tuned enough that a 6 basis points change from one month to the next is an accurate indicator, given that the March data point was just revised upward by 60 basis points.
Who knows what the April data point is going to look like when its revision comes out in four weeks?
what she do to go gray?
I agree DG... I have looked at this data, and the revisions is significant. So looking at m-o-m is misleading. If you looked at what the m-o-m looks like now (March to April) then look at it again next month... You probably will see close to 50bps lower.
"Case Shiller: House Prices increased 2.2% in May"
"average home prices increased by 2.2% in May over April for both the 10- and 20-City Composites.
With May’s data, we found that home prices fell annually by 1.0% for the 10-City Composite and by 0.7% for the 20-City Composite versus May 2011. Both Composites and 17 of the 20 MSAs saw increases in annual returns in May compared to April. ... All 20 cities and both Composites posted positive monthly returns."
So down yoy
For June 2012:
"CASE-SHILLER: Housing Soars Past Expectations, As Prices Officially Go Positive Vs. Last Year"
"Big news from Case-Shiller: House prices just went positive on a year-over-year basis.
Analysts had expected a 0.05% decline on a year over year basis, but instead prices rose 0.50%.
This is the first gain since early 2010.
On a sequential basis, house prices rose 0.94%, well ahead of the 0.45% that analysts were expecting."
Housing prices can't stay down forever, there may be some hiccups along the way but rising tides will like all boats or in this case real estate.
Tulip prices can't stay down forever!
But it can stay below bubble prices for a long enough time to kill all the tulip leeches and pumpers.
NYC still going lower down 2.1% yoy
So in real terms prices continued to fall?
Yea and the exodus of bankers to CT to rent does not bode well for manhattan RE. Foreign buying at a false bottom sounds more like it.
It's not NYC that's down yoy, it's the New York METROPOLITAN area, doubtful that applies to NYC, particularly Manhattan and Brooklyn.
Of cse you doubt it. I suspect most RE brokers would say that
what's this Case Shitter?
he doesn't even know RE price is at all-time high, what a waste of time for his crap
When you post a comment, at lest get your facts straight.
"NYC still going lower down 2.1% yoy"
SE Manhattan condo index is up 3.25% yoy. But let's not let data get in the way of a perfectly good confirmation bias
No, it's up.
No, it's up.
I guess the Case Shiller data is bogus then.
What biases might they have for presenting misleading data.
Case-Shiller Home Price Index: New York, NY is at a current level of 163.19, up from 161.89 last month and down from 166.66 one year ago. This is a change of 0.80% from last month and -2.08% from one year ago
Data for this Date Range
June 30, 2012 163.19
May 31, 2012 161.89
April 30, 2012 160.92
March 31, 2012 160.44
Feb. 29, 2012 160.63
Jan. 31, 2012 161.47
Dec. 31, 2011 162.50
Nov. 30, 2011 164.03
Oct. 31, 2011 165.20
Sept. 30, 2011 167.54
Aug. 31, 2011 167.06
July 31, 2011 167.86
June 30, 2011 166.66
May 31, 2011 167.00
April 30, 2011 166.99
March 31, 2011 165.22
Feb. 28, 2011 166.10
Jan. 31, 2011 166.66
Dec. 31, 2010 167.94
Nov. 30, 2010 168.60
Oct. 31, 2010 169.36
Sept. 30, 2010 172.07
Aug. 31, 2010 172.20
July 31, 2010 173.44
June 30, 2010 172.77
May 31, 2010 172.25
April 30, 2010 171.37
March 31, 2010 171.93
Feb. 28, 2010 172.02
Jan. 31, 2010 171.90
Dec. 31, 2009 171.66
Nov. 30, 2009 171.72
Oct. 31, 2009 172.77
Sept. 30, 2009 172.91
Aug. 31, 2009 173.32
July 31, 2009 172.95
June 30, 2009 172.42
May 31, 2009 172.74
April 30, 2009 172.42
March 31, 2009 175.53
Feb. 28, 2009 178.76
Jan. 31, 2009 181.15
Dec. 31, 2008 183.13
Nov. 30, 2008 185.58
Oct. 31, 2008 188.09
Sept. 30, 2008 190.14
Aug. 31, 2008 192.00
July 31, 2008 193.10
June 30, 2008 194.93
May 31, 2008 195.75
that was: Case-Shiller Home Price Index: New York, NY Historical Data
SLS, i get your point. but as i have often said i don't know if condo resales, given the date constraints, are really an accurate snapshot. i think they shed some light, but not a lot these days.
people don't like to take a loss, so many rent their units out rather than do so. there are any number of large buildings where a few lucky sellers hit full-offer all-cash pay dirt, and others wither on the vine indefinitely. If only 10% of sales listings in a building manage to sell a year, but those that do get a 2% increase in price, and the others can't sell because the demand isn't great enough, what does that mean?
> SE Manhattan condo index is up 3.25% yoy.
And Miller Samuel, which doesn't exclude co-ops is down. Not to mention, the SE index is at 2005 (!) prices.
> But let's not let data get in the way of a perfectly good confirmation bias