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interesting thought... coming from the guy who called the bust based on the data...
"It will take a 22% drop to return median single-family house prices to the trend identified by Robert Shiller of Yale University that stretches back to the 1890s and prevailed until the housing bubble began. (It adjusts for inflation and the tendency of houses to get bigger over time.) And corrections usually overshoot on the downside just as bubbles do on the upside."
Speaking broadly, as long as the "median" household income is still hovering in the $50K range, it's absolutely unreasonable to expect them to be able to afford the "median" house priced in the $220K range.
the so-call "decline" will never happen as long as wall street puppy Obailout is in place
>Speaking broadly, as long as the "median" household income is still hovering in the $50K range, it's absolutely unreasonable to expect them to be able to afford the "median" house priced in the $220K range.
Nice try. The lower end of the HHI range, they expect to be renters. So remove that group, you need to look at a median HHI of eligible buyers when you compare to a median house price.
This article backs up Schillings point of view in article of OP. However, it is a little short on actual numbers and a little long on hyperbole. If his %'s on non foreclosed values for the big banks are correct, it is hard to believe they would make the banks insolvent -- unless it came on top of more trading losses and an EU meltdown for a perfect storm which is unlikely.
Still both these articles back up a poster a few months ago that said that apts in NYC are not being foreclosed upon and the backlog was huge. I thought he was wrong as those apts never came to market. But perhaps he was just early in his analysis. Can't find that post anymore.
do you mean shadow inventory?