http://www.urbandigs.com/2012/08/the_hottest_year_since_07.html

Inventory is anemic. 1st half of year prices to be reflected in 2nd half. Sellers will list higher based on comps and no inventory. Media will catch on as buyer anxiety builds. The spike up in prices soon to follow as buyers bid up on what little is available and the cycle continues....Cheers!

Yep, hard to argue with UD data.

Of course all neighborhoods and buildings are different, but at least in the area I am interested in it seems inevitable that prices are going to start ticking up significantly in the next 1.5-2 years. I am not sure it could be otherwise with so little inventory and so many frustrated buyers.

Its all cyclic.

So, Steve, given you're saying things will show next year... are you finally going to admit you've been wrong about real estate? The claims that it never went down, that it was already higher than peak (even though we're still down 15-20% off peak).

I mean, if you're saying it is *about* to go up, you have to admit it didn't already...

"I mean, if you're saying it is *about* to go up, you have to admit it didn't already..."

Don't use logic - steve's brain might short-circuit.

let me clarify we are close to peak for rents/sales right now. Soon we spike higher then peak(next spring) and prob in 5 years we settle in at new highs for the cycle to begin again. Manhattan is King.

the market is not taking off this year. its nutz. 51 deals signed yesterday, weekly pace around 240s, monthly pace just under 1,000. For a frame of reference, here is how past August production fared:

2008 - 867 deals
2009 - 746 deals
2010 - 674 deals
2011 - 734 deals
2012 - 30-day pace currently at 974

I know a lot of brokers who typically take off July & August, and come back to work after Labor day...not this year. Those with listings are golden right now...chances r they will sell within 180 days. Reminds me of 2005-early 2006 before the future new dev stuff became the rage

by "market is not taking off this year", I mean that the market is not having its typical summer off in terms of deal volume

Brook2....ru kidding?
Noah is Urbandigs
SteveF is SteveF cause F'inSteve was already taken.
(SteveF...no offence, welcome back)

I used to rip on steveF...now im cheerleading hahah

Noah, You don't seem to post much about the global financial situation. Is part of the surge in sales due to overseas capital seeking safe havens? After all, the Chinese can try and sue for offshore funds in the US, but it is harder for them to repossess a Manhattan condo bought for cash.

I would guess the kinds of signs would be more all-cash deals, greater premiums and volume in condos versus co-ops, more "investment" purchases, etc.

Otherwise the explanation for support in the market really only boils down to "the sky didn't fall in" the last time. And low rates, though that would not explain all-cash deals.

I've been discussing it, but I've also been trying to convey that its been mostly a non-event up to this point. Sure I can see some shift in capital overseas looking for a home and Manhattan RE being one asset class of choice, but as you said, its very difficult to track accurately and as of now there is no chart on this taking into the multiple factors you discuss.

Its a bit more than just the sky didnt fall sentiment. Its been a sustained overperformance and reflation for so long now, coupled with a rising equity market and falling rates and falling supply. I just think we recently experience the peak of activity (deal vol in April, May, June) after a 3+ yr progressive reflation from fear back in early 2009. Think of all the buyers who waited until things were more stable, and watching their price point for 3 yrs. All they saw was a sustained improvement. All this with less stuff coming to market for 3+ yrs now and you got a marketplace that is described as "red hot deal vol with a lack of quality product priced right".

Until overseas has an event of some sort that impacts US equities again, I dont see the "threat of such an event" having much of an impact on buy side demand/bids for Manhattan property. Im more worried that sellers will start lifting asking prices and anchoring themselves to past strong bids that are yet to clear (price discovery). Will the market over the next 4-5+ months be able to perform at such a high level if sellers use strong comps/data in their pricing strategy. Who caves first?

somewhere else continues to live in his fantasy to try to feel better about renting all this time. swe- it is ok to be wrong, just move on . . .