Economy in a slow recovery.

All indicators for Manhattan Real Estate are pointing up relative to a year ago.

I feel confident a bottom on both stocks and Real Estate are long behind us.

I like your optimism but need meaningful job growth for any recovery to be sustained. Today's ADP jobs report builds on a positive trend. Tomorrow's unemployment figures should continue to point to modest jobs recovery. Economy is still not moving forward under its own steam which is why FED is still poised to add stimulus. My opinion NYC RE flat at best for next 2-3 years. But I do agree we bounced off bottom.

7.9 unemployment on Nov 2 (last number released before election day). Election over. Obama gets another four years.

The broader measure also fell to 14.7% from 15. So its a "real" drop. Frankly, though, the people dropping out of the labor force are probably people retiring early. Its meh. Neither terrible or great for O or Mittins.

...and the proof is the S&P futures are still positive 30 minutes after the report.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-07/s-p-500-futures-pare-gain-as-treasuries-rally-on-jobs.html

...which could mean yikes is right. People assume from this more Fed stimulus.

I am having trouble committing anything but IRA funds to the market (those are on fire though!) Do we not fight the fed and just go all in until we are told otherwise (by the fed).

S&P made another 4 year high this morning, even after a lousy jobs report. Unemployment down to 8.1% but job creation was disappointing. I agree with uwsbeagle, unemployment below 8% before the election. Ain't manipulation a wonderful thing?

Let's wait for the revisions after the election.

S&P made another 4 year high this morning, even after a lousy jobs report. Unemployment down to 8.1% but job creation was disappointing. I agree with uwsbeagle, unemployment below 8% before the election. Ain't manipulation a wonderful thing?

So what does the market do when the Fed decides to unwind their bond purchases?

"So what does the market do when the Fed decides to unwind their bond purchases?"

Make sure you sell before that happens. You know what they say, "Bulls make money. Bears make money. Pigs get slaughtered."

LOL,
The guys at CNBC will come up with some reason that supports the market's going up even more.

"So what does the market do when the Fed decides to unwind their bond purchases?"

Sigh. Perma-ignorance.

1)They don't NEED to unwind them, they can just hold to maturity.
2) If they feel the need to unwind them, its because THE ECONOMY WILL BE GROWING FASTER than it is now and yet inflation will NOT be rampant.

Good thing I didn't short the index again.

perhaps RS might learn something this time:

"The Biggest Thing Paul Ryan Gets Wrong About The Fed"...and RS too.

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/paul-ryan-on-qe-2012-9#ixzz25nUKAC6T

Apt23: I was applying the same logic (since for various reasons I'm not selling my RE) to shorting the stock market. It hasn't worked for me thus far.

"So, after a 100% run up in the market, what kind of rise in the market are you predicting."

My original post said I thought we had seen a bottom in the housing and stock market long ago. If I could predict what the market will do next year, I wouldn't be wasting time on this forum, I'd be relaxing on Lake Como near my Italian Villa. LOL!

"Why not wait for a significant downturn before buying."

How long have you been waiting for that "significant" downturn. I don't see any big increases but I believe real estate will bump along for the next year or two without any significant movement up or down.

On a more current note, any opinions on ADNC, down 68% today, worth investing a few dollars??

Fool me once..
http://buzz.money.cnn.com/2012/09/06/stocks-bonds-inflows-outflows/?iid=HP_LN

Fool me twice..

http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20120907/FREE/120909962

> All indicators for Manhattan Real Estate are pointing up relative to a year ago.

Except for, you know, prices.

> S&P MADE ANOTHER 4 YEAR HIGH TODAY............

I sold off another few percentage points today, getting closer to target allocation (although this rise undid the shaving I did a few weeks ago in terms of %%).

I think we can pretty clearly say stock has been the better bet last few years, can't we?

Don't fight the Fed is the expression.

Just checked the SSOs for fun... most are gone, but I kept some for the memories.

Ok, most are in the 200%s, but the two best-times lots...
+318.47%
+316.19%

> What apt owner can say they made 90-100% in the last 18 months on their investment.

Well, there might be some who lost that much (when leveraged 5x or 10x).

I could never find anything that appropriately hedged away RE risk.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Just remember that the stock market is still down from where it stood 5 years ago. Much like real estate.

Bill Gross of PIMCO spoke to Bloomberg Television’s Stephanie Ruhle, Adam Johnson and Alix Steel on “Lunch Money” today, reiterating comments in his monthly outlook that the age of credit expansion that led to double digit returns is over. Gross said, “Those days are over…Pension funds and individuals and investors that expect 10% consistent returns to pay those bills are going to be disappointed.”

Gross also said that the price of gold “will be higher than it is today and certainly a better investment than a bond or stock, which will probably return only 3% to 4% over the next 5 to 10 years.”

http://wallstreetpit.com/96380-double-digit-returns-from-stocksbonds-are-over-pimcos-gross/

Frick(w67) & Frack(Brooksie), Frick BS's about his fortune and Frack eats it up. LOL!

Frack I hope Frick has let you in on the secrets to his BS success. Ha, Ha, Ha !!!

RS- Bill Gross still has not recovered from his idiotic statements about equity market returns not being able to outpace nominal GDP growth...you know, when he FORGOT that half the return over the past 100 years has been from DIVIDENDS? The guy is not the end all be all.

Oh, and he too has been totally wrong on Rates and inflation.

"How Bill Gross' wrong call on bonds has cost his Pimco investors"

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2011/08/bill-gross-pimco-total-return-bond-fund-returns-2011-treasury-bet-recession.html

"Come On, Bill Gross! Please Stop Insulting People And Fix Your Mistake! [about the stock market]

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/why-bill-gross-is-wrong-about-stock-returns-2012-8#ixzz25vCdyJ2L

Real unemployment is 4 percent which represents unemployment for college grads. There is a shortage of skills in this number such as forensic accountants, nurses, auto engineers, programmers, Algo developers. Thus, we have a low vacancy rate in new York. New York is for talented and not the wishful. Couple this with high levels in stock market , gold prices, foreign buyers, this points to boom conditions and rising residential manhattan prices. What new normal? Don't believe this propaganda of unemployment you read in newspaper. It is mostly teenage high school dropouts or vp wannabes. As the fed prints money all of this will lead to a surge in apartment prices. Buy or die!

"Just remember that the stock market is still down from where it stood 5 years ago. Much like real estate."

Of course, most folks don't leverage their stock bets...

Took more off the table today.

"Hindsight is a wonderful thing. Just remember that the stock market is still down from where it stood 5 years ago. Much like real estate."

The Case-shiller 20 city index is down approximately 28% from 196 to 142.

The SPXT - the S&P Total Return (which includes dividends or assumes dividend reinvestments) was 2423 five years ago and is 2364 today. So down 2%.

So not exactly the same.

____________________________

"Of course, most folks don't leverage their stock bets..."

Ummm...options market? Futures market? Anyone? Lots of plain, retail-oriented ETFs, mutual funds, and insurance company products aimed at grandma invest in S&P 500 indices etc. (Think a capital protection fund.)

Again, most people don't. But the point is that a huge share of RE downpayment money is leveraged significantly, and the average person doesn't do the same with their stock bets.... making things look even worse for RE comparatively.

Yes, you generate actual income instead with stocks.

Markets are at record highs....gold up. Luxury properties exceed 2007 highs in new York, Paris, London etc, apple new high, 3 carat diamonds, art, channel bags, princeton tuition, healthcare insurance....all at new highs. Car engineers getting 100k, union laborers in new York getting 100 per hour, etc etc. The desirable dear things in life ....all at new highs. There is no recession for the those want to live well and have good education and skill. This translates into good opportunities for rising new York city condo prices.

"The Case-shiller 20 city index is down approximately 28% from 196 to 142."

Case-Shiller Condominium Price Index: New York, NY is down from 230 to 203 over 5 years, about 12%. Manhattan probably preformed even better.

Median manhattan selling price is still down 15+%. Not quite sure about that "better" thing.

Also, we left out inflation...

> Luxury properties exceed 2007 highs i
Of course, the big number ones are new properties. Doesn't say rise, just more appetite. The average price for high end report came out a few weeks back (and discussed on this board) and it was actually down.

"This translates into good opportunities for rising new York city condo prices."
For the top few, perhaps. For the mass remaining... that wouldn't be very logical.

"Case-Shiller Condominium Price Index: New York, NY is down from 230 to 203 over 5 years, about 12%. Manhattan probably preformed even better."

Yes. And Priceline and Apple are both up like 500% over that time.

RENY: "Case-Shiller Condominium Price Index: New York, NY is down from 230 to 203 over 5 years, about 12%. Manhattan probably preformed even better."

Not really. The SE index has 2192 at the peak vs. 1970 today, so down 11%.

"Yes. And Priceline and Apple are both up like 500% over that time."

Nice to cherrypick after the fact.
Apple was at $200 a share in 2007, how does that compute to 500%?

Priceline is still down $350 per share from where it stood in 1999, or did you forget that?? Do you know any real estate that lost a third of it's value since 1999?

How about General Motors, AIG, Kodak, Nokia, Hewlett Packard, and I could go on and on.

@w67thstreet, As a (mostly) passive reader of this forum, I'd just like to let you know that we all get it. You made $1mm on sprint. Congratulations (seriously, it's a nice accomplishment and I get why your excited). However, I'm also perplexed by your acute disdain for NYC RE yet your continued obsession with this forum.

It has gotten old to say the least. Could you try to contribute something else to the conversation?

"Hindsight is a wonderful thing."

It wasn't hindsight, babe... I called it (and the brokers laughed).

"Just remember that the stock market is still down from where it stood 5 years ago."
You are cherry picking. It isn't down since I started calling for the buy...

"Much like real estate."

No, not like real estate. Medians are much further down than the stock market... not to mention the leverage.

"Nice to cherrypick after the fact. '

And so too did you.

Exactly.

In the end, since the stock bust, stock has been the right call... (where RE continued to fall significantly after).