Manhattan apartment rents surged in September, coming within 2.1 percent of the peak, as improving employment boosted competition among tenants.
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-10-11/manhattan-apartment-rents-near-peak-with-september-surge

I am waiting for Inonada to come and give the one unit he can find that is down YOY to disprove the entire survey.

In the MEANWHILE in reality-ville, while median rents went up 10%, the average price PER SQUARE FOOT was down (yes DOWN) 1.1% YOY with concessions, and up only 0.9% without them. The minus 1.1% figure is the "real" figure.

The average rental price was down 1.8% without concession, 3.7% with. DOWN.

Interestingly, the number of units offering concessions was UP 25% YOY.

So really its not so clear cut this time. When average is down overall and in per square foot terms while the median is up, that tells me that lots of very high end units came to market and drove up the median. Middle- and low-priced stuff was actually down. Has to be so, no?

When you look at the YOY change in new rentals by location, you begin to see why. Some areas had double (!!!) as all these new super-buildings opened up.

http://www.elliman.com/pdf/203c22b4c11af1ee3b11d24b6fdd91907aebf08e

Jason - some of the data in the article backs up your point:

"Leases for luxury apartments, or the top 10 percent of all rentals by price, increased 54 percent in September from a year earlier to 253 new agreements, Miller Samuel and Prudential said. The median rent for those deals fell 17 percent to $7,087.

So-called super-luxury apartments, or the top 5 percent of all rentals, leased at a median $9,400 in September, 11 percent less than a year earlier. Demand for super-luxury units jumped 45 percent, with renters signing 126 deals last month."

So the number of leases rose but the average prices declined.

Perhaps this means that while there are is more hiring in the city, since they are "new" jobs that means lower positions/salary and lower end apartments while the higher end positions (finance) are getting cut. This is probably pretty bullish for Brooklyn. And me, I will probably move out of Manhattan with the next renewal because of both cost and schools.

Maybe I mixed my math up, someone sort it out.

Well if Jim agrees with me, it must surely be true.

AvUWS see http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/10/report-predicts-fastest-job-growth-in-hotels-and-restaurants-not-financial-services/?ref=nyregion

So yes.

That won't help Manhattan much. Those industries pay lower than average wages. My hope for employment and wages was the high-tech/media-tech industries which, though much lower than finance, are usually at least up towards, and sometimes into, six figures.

It's correct - rents at peaks, vacancies up. Housing inventory constrained - because people can't sell without losing money, and mortgages are still hard to get.

It's an inflection point.

Delusion in this post people! I have worked in and around the RE industry since the 80's. Rents are RISING because of under-development during 2008-09 crash. Stop fooling yourselves. I've seen this cycle 4x already. We have not. reached. peak. rents. sorry!

So glad i didn't buy a place in 2009 during the housing crisis so i could rent and pay sky high rent the past 2 years.

Thank you housing bears.

instead you are up to your eyeballs in debt and living the good life in LIC.

what debt?
Only debt is the rent i'm paying.

Closing at 730-780 PSF!!!

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/building/the-yard

I knew i should had bought a place in 2009 when i had a chance at 560-620 psf.
Damn you all!

I'm not stuck paying sky high rent with no entry in sight.

Damn you all!
Where's aboutready? Oh that's right, she recently closed on a place after missing the bottom.

Damn you all again!

"JButton
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instead you are up to your eyeballs in debt and living the good life in LIC."

WHERE'S THE SUB 500 PSF THAT YOU SAID WILL HAPPEN!!!
I HATE YOU ALL!!

DAMN YOU ALL!

i hope you didnt buy. you really should get paid to live there.

Why didn't i buy that unit for 560 psf! I'm essentially priced out of the market now.
At $750 psf for a 1,500 unit it's going to cost me 1.12 million.

I would need to fork out 500K today just so my mortgage is below the new 625K conforming loan limit for a 1,500 square feet unit.

Back to renting that 2 bedroom at 4,200 for another GOD KNOWS HOW LONG!

HATE YOU ALL!!! THIS BOARD HAS THE WORST ADVICE AND KNOWLEDGE OF HOUSING MARKET EVER!!

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/rental/919530-condo-2-26-50th-avenue-hunters-point-long-island-city

"Yet if you ask any buyer out there today who is struggling to find quality inventory that is also priced right, they would say "no way are prices down over last year". Just the fact that we have 22% less product to choose from puts more pressure on buyers to find that perfect value play."

http://www.urbandigs.com/2012/10/q3_in_the_books_--_so_where_ar.html

So for lower end products, do we wait? Or continue to ride the "surging" rent?

NYC10023,
That unit faces the LIRR. If the price didn't blow my mind, the noise from the idle trains would. I would rather pay that extra $350 to live in one of the East Coast buildings.

I have no choice it looks like but to sell all my REAL ESTATE FUND holdings.

http://www.urbandigs.com/2012/10/q3_in_the_books_--_so_where_ar.html

Bought in at July of 2009 at 8 and change. Time to cash out and use that cash to PAY FOR MY RENT!

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=NRFYX+Interactive#symbol=nrfyx;range=5y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

rent "surges" coming from fewer people wanting to buy.

still pretending that is bullish?

> I have no choice it looks like but to sell all my REAL ESTATE FUND holdings.

Wow, he got it wrong in equities, too.

I took the same leverage, did it with the S&P. SSOs were up double that...

Sorry...