Downtown, the Crystal Ball Clouds Up

Thanks for starting the 10th thread on this topic, idiot.

we welcome the cold and tired masses in yorkville

thx for the link--sandy will no doubt have huge effects ongoing on NYC RE pricing

At least on the high end -- and not just for Downtown, but everywhere -- I believe many prospective buyers are seriously re-thinking living in high-rises period.

Our power infrastructure in this city seems to be particularly vulnerable and fragile these days. Who wants to pay north of $5 million so that when the lights go out (and these days, it seems like the outages no longer last just for minutes or hours, but *days* and even weeks) you're stuck on the 31st floor, can't open your windows, and can't flush the toilet?

I think the "new black" of New York real estate will be the single-family townhouse with a generator on the roof ... UPTOWN.

Or at the very least, many people will be giving the humble 5-story walk-up building a much closer look.

>I think the "

What is your track record on thinking?

My two-cents is that it's less about high-rise and uptown versus more sensitivity about the property's zone A-B-C designation.

"Despite predictions of a real estate recession in Manhattan after Sept. 11, co-op and condominium sales have rebounded strongly in the last two months, with the number of sales up and prices gradually rising -- in some cases even surpassing those of a year ago, when the sales market was still hot"

"Jonathan J. Miller, president of Miller Samuel, one of the city's largest appraisal companies, is more conservative. While other brokers boast of their current sales, Mr. Miller said quietly that the news is good. ''I would have imagined that with the negativity on Wall Street and with 9/11 that the real estate market would have suffered,'' he said yesterday. ''Instead, there has been a noticeable uptick in activity.''

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/03/13/nyregion/real-estate-in-manhattan-is-rebounding.html

funny--i sold a coop, closed in mar 2002--the market had been dead since oct 2001, when i listed, and had a frothy little pop in early 2002--it then settled down a bit and went flat for a few years

seems these pundits marked the near-term top! as pundits often do

did it flood or not? did its neighborhood flood or not?

these will be the key questions

power not so critical--the grid can be fixed, the oceans connot

Yikes was it downtown?

And here is the funniest quote, from the end of that article;
"Last fall, articles were written about New Yorkers' flight to far-flung counties along the Hudson River, and to enclaves in Connecticut.
Tom Swope, a real estate agent in Claverack, N.Y., was asked if the masses had reached Columbia County. ''Not yet,'' he said. ''We're still waiting.''

Sandy will have the same lasting effects on NYC real estate that 911 and the Triangle Shirtwaist fire continue to drag us down

carnegie hill prewar--bot in 94 sold in 20--lucky>3X

"Empty Offices Seem Poised to Remain So for Months...

...There is now more deserted office space in Lower Manhattan because of Hurricane Sandy than there are offices in many cities..."

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/07/nyregion/empty-offices-seem-poised-to-remain-so-in-lower-manhattan.html

"...The telephones are not working. And it turns out that under the current schedule for repairs, Verizon will not be finished until May..."

Uh-huh. No impact RE.

>"...The telephones are not working. And it turns out that under the current schedule for repairs, Verizon will not be finished until May..."

>Uh-huh. No impact RE.

The likely impact is that rent in neighboring buildings that weren't or mildly affected by Sandy will go UP now because of the hit to inventory.
Though I don't think that's the point you incessantly try to make.

I think Sandy's impact to carry the storm analogy further will just be a mild sprinkling spring shower compared to the unemployment hitting 6% and the subsequent ratcheting up of mortgages to R E Prices.

And so it begins.

jason10006
about 8 hours ago
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Member since: Jan 2009
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"...The telephones are not working. And it turns out that under the current schedule for repairs, Verizon will not be finished until May..."
Uh-huh. No impact RE.

Jason has it nailed as usual. People are buying real estate for the ability to use POTS.