Have things just gotten dumb?

Streeteasy and the message board posters are only here for you, our favorite unemployed renter.

steve,

You can argue with me. And whoever said that the Irish carpenters are going to save us is wrong. Everyone knows that doctors (especially the celebrity ones) are going to save the market. Doctors Mehmet Oz, Sanjay Gupta, Phil McGraw, and Zimmor (from the subway ads) are going to buy up Manhattan real estate, putting a floor in pricing.

LOL. Did you just start that account IrishCarpenter? Is that you JuiceMan?

my housing is private, please don't discuss here.

I would never want to use a doctor who does not even know how to correctly spell his last name.

http://select.nytimes.com/2006/01/18/nyregion/18about.html?_r=1

Glad the Irish Carpenter is back.

Come on Steve, this is a bit tongue-in-cheek, no? You have "nemeses" on here? Do you feel like you've dispatched them somehow? Where you're right (and others have complained about this) is that this board has taken a hit in terms of quality and civility (there was always some back-and-forth, but it was usually far more good-natured). Though your volume of posting has receded to a normal level (and your arguments only benefit from this, trust me), I think you have to share at least some of the blame on "things getting dumb" around here. There's been a pretty perverse need to separate posters into the "bear" or "bull" camp, which, well, has dumbed things down considerably. Can we take the conversations to a higher level? Sure. We just need more people to make the effort.

The bulls and bears existed long before I started posting. I said in May there had been a change in tone, it was denied by many. Now they're all gone.

Steve, that wasn't my point - I was trying to say that the conversation became largely dominated by "you're a bull, I'm a bear, I'm right, ha ha ha!" That's maybe why you're getting the impression things have gotten dumb. No one is "gone," except for spunky, who's been noticeably absent for a while now.

"After a year of posting, and having seen my myriad nemeses disappear...What has come of the world? Have we all come to believe as I stated a year ago, that (like the rest of the country) we're in for a 50% decline in property prices?"

Self-centered much?

Now it's mostly bears, then it was mostly bulls. Personally, I don't find that the civility has decreased that much. It was pretty nasty. Now there are alot more trolls, but they can be ignored rather easily, or I must confess that I find a couple of them rather droll (ie Rufus). bjw, Malraux has apparently gone the way of Spunky, although I for one am not so sure we aren't occasionally experiencing the joy of Spunky's presence, albeit under a different name.

I personally find the economic and real estate issues draining because I feel that the bottom has yet to hit, it could be a crater of huge proportions, and I'm beyond the point of caring whether or not I was right about the real estate market being an unsustainable bubble. This bubble caused a great deal of pain (and profit) in its creation, and will cause far more pain and loss on the way down. It sucks, I'll be able to afford a nice apartment, but that can only make you so happy when things are imploding around you. And, if my husband loses his job (although not likely at this point), we may not be able to afford that nice apartment anyway.

Well, you could try to change subjects a little. Instead of arguing about resale prices and new construction prices, why not interpret market rents and their trends? I don't know about rental prices, but I have gleaned a little anecdotal information that's interesting: (a) chatting with a doorman of a 400-unit market-rate rental bldg on the East Side, midtownish, just this week: "right now we've got about 15 vacancies." (b) chatting with a tenant in a smaller highrise, East '50s: "there are only five apartments to each floor, and from May to August I was the only tenant on my floor; people whose leases expire are asking for lower floors/smaller layouts."

Otherwise, you might try to not personalize things when you disagree with them.

"Self-centered much?"

Utterly.

aboutready, I think that's a pretty forward-thinking perspective. What's "affordable" is really getting reshaped, and that will affect everyone (yes, everyone). I think we can move to that conversation (to be fair, several threads have done this), although it's still unclear where we'll really "end up." For the record, malraux's been gone for what, a week? People sometimes take vacations this time of year. Or so I hear.

bjw. agreed. re malraux, i guess it was just the way he departed that makes me wonder.

JuiceMan disappeared, as well, though he apparently still reads.

And ccdevi, vverain, SPUNKY, evillager, deucescracked, I could go on. Haven't seen LICC, petrfitz, tecchie in a long time, either.

Malraux disapeered because he was exposed as a fraud. Called him on his "blind trust" buying @ 15 CPW. I'm sure he's on here as another screenname, this time with a condo in the TWC purchased for $500/sqft.

Well, while this is an anonymous board, using a consistent screenname is kind of nice because you can develop somewhat of a kinship with other posters who are smart, knowledgeable, and not too ego-driven (which is weird on a, well, anonymous message board, but still happens), as we try to figure out real estate in this great city. What's troubling is the horde of johnny-come-latelys who jump on the bandwagon-du-jour and berate older posters. This happened when the market was going up, as well as now, which makes people like malraux, mh23, JuiceMan, eah, tenemental, stevejhx, MMafia (there are others, apologies if I left you out) that much more reliable, and a whole host of others (I won't name names) that much more irritating. Some of the people Steve listed fit into that latter category, whereas others don't (they're still around - I just don't think you've noticed).

"johnny-come-latelys who jump on the bandwagon-du-jour and berate older posters."

Get off my lawn you whippersnappers.

"Malraux disapeered because he was exposed as a fraud."

He hoards krugerrands in a safe-deposit box.

His "art" collection wound up being fake, as well.

jgr, did I prick your conscience? Chances are, I'm probably younger than you!

stevejhx
about hours ago
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JuiceMan disappeared, as well, though he apparently still reads.

And ccdevi, vverain, SPUNKY, evillager, deucescracked, I could go on. Haven't seen LICC, petrfitz, tecchie in a long time, either.

No, Verain and VVerain went nowhere. Verain has been collecting plenty of information on you that you seem to freely share in streeteasy and over the internet as if you have no shame. Verain has also been adding to the list of your follies, errors, accidental misstatements and lies. Since Verain got "tired," under the Verain and VVerain names, we've noticed that you haven't done very well for yourself, but you have managed to admit (not that it wasn't evident to everyone) that the entire premise behind your most famous insistent diatribe isn't true.

Someone want to help me out and find that link about renting versus buying ALWAYS?

Have a good new year Mr. Hanley.

You are being watched, only because you allow yourself to be watched.

verain! Wow, creepiest: "Verain has been collecting plenty of information on you that you seem to freely share in streeteasy and over the internet as if you have no shame"

Wow! But it gets worse:

"You are being watched, only because you allow yourself to be watched."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zf5ExRvDMgU

That's how anonymous I am.

BTW I've NEVER referred to myself in the 3rd person. Damn. You should be on Seinfeld!

Dude, you can't be rich & famous like me, and expect anonymity like you have!

"Someone want to help me out and find that link about renting versus buying ALWAYS?"

I will! As long as you consider buying an "investment," rather than capitalized rent!

"Where you're right (and others have complained about this) is that this board has taken a hit in terms of quality and civility (there was always some back-and-forth, but it was usually far more good-natured)."

I figure only because we're now talking about folks who might have lost money. I don't think the ribbings are any worse than some of the things said in the past - I've seen some pretty awful stuff in old threads - if anything, I think there is a chance they used to be worse. Someone mentioned dco several times.

But now real money is in question. And I think that changes things dramatically.

"JuiceMan disappeared, as well, though he apparently still reads."

Where did I go?

What about LICcomment?

Ooops, I thought that video was supposed to be about overpriced real estate, lol, anyway, what was with the guy always touching his bald head, like OCD! Anyway, not very funny to drink and drive, my wife would be pretty upset that it was glorified in the video.

> And ccdevi, vverain, SPUNKY, evillager, deucescracked, I could go on. Haven't seen LICC, petrfitz,
> tecchie in a long time, either.

How about the guy who worked at lehman?

Hey steve, I didn't go anywhere, just decided that posting here tends to do nothing but waste my time and getting into arguments with petrfitz. Not worth it.

For the record, I have never been a "bull", although I am quite happy in my apartment that I own. My problems with you have tended to be around the fact that you cherry-pick the buy vs rent math (which, I still stipulate, in the areas and kinds of buildings I looked at, never got too out of wack) and had some issues with your "models" you would throw around (e.g., 8-10% per year apprecition from the market as an alternative source of funds - I think the last year's performace pretty much justified my issues).

As for my situation, I am very happy. I bought near the top, but got a pretty good deal so I'm not overly concerned with prices coming down a bit. Longer term, I think recovery or not, inflation is coming back like a mother so I'm ok with owning real assets against long term, low fixed rate debt.

Bottom line - I love my place, and can afford it. Could I have gotten a better deal in a year or two? Maybe. But I still don't see "deals" in any of the buildings/areas I have been interested in, and regardless that would have meant continuing to live in (what I consider to be) a less-than-great rental in a less-than-ideal location for what I want for another 2, 3, 4 years.

7 days ago would make this New Years Eve. You're complaining that your anonymous Internet friends were all suddenly missing on New Years Eve? Wow... I'm going to bite my tongue.

Nice to have you back, evillager!

For the record, as you put it, I never cherry-picked any data. I provided my data from what I saw, and was and am more than willing to entertain anyone else's data, or any else's model, if they sourced them. But the didn't, because they couldn't.

And apparently, you still don't understand what my argument was about: I said that owner-occupied residential real estate was not a good "investment"; indeed, it's not an investment at all, it's capitalized rent. Therefore, if you (or anyone) expected it to continue to rise at astronomical levels forever, then you are mistaken.

"inflation is coming back like a mother"

I think you're mistaken there. One of the primary problems with "inflation," as I've also argued, is how the government measures it. Some 40% of inflation is owner's equivalent rent, which does not take asset prices into account. It was a change made some 20 years ago, and it allowed inflation to appear to be benign while home prices doubled, triple, quadrupled, quintupled and more in a very short period of time. The past few years saw enormous inflation even when the indices showed none. Now we are in a period of significant deflation.

Regarding last year's stock market performance, it was something that a) was mostly avoidable, and b) something that happens once every hundred or so years. It is anomalous, though it does represent a huge long-term buying opportunity.

Real estate market reports came out today - prices are down 20% since their peak according to Miller Samuel. In my opinion, they have another 40% to go.

I am back and bullish as ever. The Obama recovery starts in 13 days, and Manhattan will greatly benefit. We may have some more price dips this year, and some severe ones in the third quarter, but things will be back to mid-2008 levels by spring of 2010, and better than 2007 levels by spring of 2011.

So, fasten your seatbelts, stay tuned, it may be a bumpy ride, but the economy and the re overall will get better and better starting in a few months.

By the way, I agree with Steve about Lehman. I think that caused a major crisis in confidence that was responsible more than anything else that has happened.

will, I tend to agree with you that things will recover quickly. I had a wonderful year business-wise last year until December, when two major projects got canceled and nothing else came in. On January 1, however, the work started to flow.

You can only put off spending for so long, until you have to spend again.

BTW I was discussing business with a client of mine yesterday, and the sense is there will be plenty of work for us translators working on bankruptcy cases and international infrastructure projects. Lawyers are now switching their practices to bankruptcy.

Bankruptcy is a strange animal: people take losses, but a company in bankruptcy has easy access to credit because post-bankruptcy creditors take precedence over pre-bankruptcy creditors. Losses are taken, but the business starts up again.

stevejhx, will, risk is risk and risk is real. Lehman, a tsunami, an airplane engine failure, a stray bullet, a blue lobster, a black swan, 3 sets of double zeros. All of these things occur. Saying Lehman should not have occurred or that your strategy made sense but for Lehman (and it almost sounds like you want to continue the sentence ... and I want my money back) means that your strategy failed. You can't protect against all failures, and that is why diversification is important in investment. Evillager is able to do what he is able to do and sleep at night despite potential losses because he is diversified, didn't stretch on the real estate asset (and not excessively leveraged), has a long time frame (which mitigates volatility provided the prior point about leverage), and also has a lifestyle element built in.

"Saying Lehman should not have occurred"

Then you didn't study the Great Depression, and you must be a supply-sider. Any Keynesian will tell you never let a back fail.

"your strategy made sense but for Lehman"

I never said that.

"diversification is important"

There was nothing to diversify into: EVERYTHING collapsed.

"didn't stretch on the real estate asset"

If you pay more than comparable rents, then you overpaid.

back fail = bank fail!

"Lawyers are now switching their practices to bankruptcy." Now THAT's a sign of a healthy economy just around the corner.

Let's take a little look see at the stimulus program. $310 billion for smallish tax breaks for those making less than $200K, loss tax changes for small businesses and incentives for small businesses, $165 or so billion for "shovel-ready" infrastructure projects (meaning they already would have been started and accounted for in local budgets under half-way normal circumstances), $250 billion for state unemployment shortfalls, medicaid and food stamps needed due to increasing unemployment, that gets us to over $700 billion with not much stimulus to me, just putting fingers in some holes and going forward with some projects that are probably long overdue.

CRE has the potential to take down numerous regional banks, so it (or really, its investors) must be saved. Auto for employment purposes. Mortgages must be crammed down to save asset prices but that will affect banks' balance sheets so they'll need to be propped up further or just see the TARP money disappear into the ether. State budgets, on top of the aid for infrastructure and population subsistence, will be facing huge shortfalls (governors recently asked for a two-year package totalling nearly $1 trillion), and states employ a ton of people, so they can't go under. Consumer credit is ostensibly more available, but only to those who have managed to emerge unscathed from this last year and a half credit-wise, and that 70% of the economy is crazy-gluing its wallets shut. Exports are cliff-diving, along with the economies of virtually every major US trading partner. Architect billings indicate that non-residential investment will tank, big time, in about six months. Bless you bulls, but I'm not there yet.

stevejhx
22 minutes ago
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"Saying Lehman should not have occurred"
Then you didn't study the Great Depression, and you must be a supply-sider. Any Keynesian will tell you never let a back fail.
"your strategy made sense but for Lehman"
I never said that.
"diversification is important"
There was nothing to diversify into: EVERYTHING collapsed.
"didn't stretch on the real estate asset"
If you pay more than comparable rents, then you overpaid.

I get it now, you are the always right type, even if you are wrong.

No, when I'm wrong I'm wrong.

However, bank failures is one major reason why the Depression lasted so long, and why the FDIC and other institutions were created.

Show me one asset class that went up last year. The best you can come up with is gold, which held about steady.

aboutready, I agree with you on car makers. However, why bankruptcy can cover everything EXCEPT owner-occupied real estate makes no sense. It is, in fact, the best way to stop what is currently going on.

States can't declare bankruptcy.

Bankruptcy is a lagging indicator.

This sounds more like an emotional argument for you for whatever reason - market losses, job loss, academic problems with your thesis - and as every guy knows, you can't get into a rational argument with your girl when she's all emotional, so I'll leave you to finish on your own.

"By the way, I agree with Steve about Lehman. I think that caused a major crisis in confidence"

Do coal miners blame the dead canary for causing a major crisis in confidence in the air they breath? Of course the first failure causes a major crisis in confidence. That doesn't mean the first failure caused the recession.

"This sounds more like an emotional argument for you for whatever reason"

Thanks for the pop-psychology analysis.

But it's wrong.

steve--we're here..you just have us on "ignore"...
you insisted on using bull - bear terminology which created a strage dynamic. most of us just don't want to play anymore because it is ridiculous. you work the conversation to the point where it goes from costructive arguement to slurs, so you have an excuse to hit "ignore"...
i come here when bored. most of my real discussion goes on elsewhere.

Lehman should have been saved, but it didn't cause AIG to have problems. It is one piece of a greater puzzle that has been unwinding over the past few months ata brisk pace. Any one or tow of these bad situations alone would not have destroyed confidence or frozen the credit markets to the extent that has happened. They each played their part of a greater problem.

The discussion also always feels like it never moves anywhere. We can prove something pretty obvious (mortgage tax deduction comes to mind), and tomorrow stevejhx acts as if the previous discussion never happened.

Nobody wants to play level 1 of super mario again and again and again. These discussions never reach level 2.

Real estate will do what it does regardless of what stevejhx wants, thinks, or expects (and regardless of what I want, think, or expect). If you won't listen to reason, whats the point of discussing this with you further? Your insanity doesn't actually matter.

To be honest with you, I was pretty damn good at Level 1 of Super Mario. Level 2....not so much.

Steve, bankruptcy lags, but by how much? And the significance of that would imply that there is some foreseeable end to bankruptcy. If they just keep coming, they just keep lagging, so to speak.

States can't go bankrupt, or declare bankruptcy? Municipalities/counties certainly have, and I wouldn't be stunned to see California default on debt eventually.

Lehman just shocked the system into realizing that there was something definitely stinky in Denmark. I doubt it would have taken that long, even with the forward-thinking seers running the banks, for them to realize that lending to just about anyone was an extremely poor idea. Bleeding cash from every orifice and knowing that everyone else is too is no working business environment. Yes the shock was sudden and nasty, but it only reflected fundamentals.

States can't declare bankruptcy. It's not allowed.

Yes, but they can default on debt, so can the US government. If you can't pay, you can't pay.

I didn't write that they would declare bankruptcy, just that they might not pay up what they owe, which is effectively the same thing. Semantics.

"they can default on debt, so can the US government"

They can default, but they have no way of dismissing the debt and it can be enforced in the courts. A court can certainly order the government to raise taxes or sell assets to pay what it owes.

if the government is kaput, exactly who is running the courts?

Steve, there were many of us here before you. I invented Little Black Arrows back in the stone age. I also obliterated Malraux and his fake art collection before he changed his handle to malraux. Let's all share the blackhearted love.

jerkstore--let steve have his delusions. god knows what he would do without them.

Life is sad when you actually have to take credit for streeteasy discussions and how long you've been wasting time on streeteasy.

It's similar to someone who lives in the projects states that they've lived in the PJs for 25 years.

They're both that out of touch with reality and claims to be proud of.

further proof of stevejhx's mental instability.

stevejhx always is always informative and interesting...you, on the other hand.

yes, things have gotten dumb.
with the troll rufus adding his Chicago is King, NYC is a dump b/c I couldn't make it there discussions, anon3 and other paranoid fringe jobs talking about buying canned soup and RE prices falling 1000%, the intellectualism on these boards have drastically fallen off. I agree with stevejhx.

"the intellectualism on these boards have drastically fallen off."

your momma

wow, oldbuyers... pretty pathetic here.

Talking about wasting time, and here you are, bumping this old thread each week and complaining about others...

Things have gotten dumb, reflected in such a low amount of deals going on.

You know, maybe I'm coming from this at the wrong direction, but I'd LOVE to see more deals happening. At lowered prices. That is what will drive this market down to reality, along with elevated inventory. Stagnation is stagnation. Drops don't occur all at once. I think we are finally seeing some sellers just go for the sale, those numbers will be more meaningful if there is some volume (not over the top, but some reflecting declining prices), which will show up in the media and in the sales reports, creating more impetus for declines. Yes, the positive spin on increased activity might slow things down a bit, but that's a natural part of the process. It would be unnatural if certain buyers didn't feel compelled to enter at each price inflection point. Credit conditions will keep the deals very repressed.