Employers Begin Rehiring the Laid Off:

somewhereelse: about 9 months ago

Mainly because people aren't buying, and finding renting more attractive, even at the higher rents. Of course, the "higher" rents are still lower than peak... one study said they were at 90s levels in real terms.

That being said, there was a report saying vacancies are up... we could see a decrease.

Brooks2: about 9 months ago

But rents keep going up. Go figure.

uwsbeagle: about 9 months ago

Looks to me like the chart is in the same pattern as 2004 to 2006. Maybe it is bullish.

caonima: about 9 months ago

TSA gropers are hiring

jason10006: about 9 months ago

"New York City’s unemployment rate stuck at 10%
Number of city residents employed has remained essentially flat over the last twelve months"

SO bullish!!!! Buy now or FOREVER be priced out!!!!!

pulaski: about 9 months ago

"CHART: The Dwindling Number Of Wall Street Bankers"

"News hit over the past few weeks that a number of Wall Street heavyweights, including Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank, were once again cutting payrolls, while others, like Bank of America Merrill Lynch, were lowering bonuses.

Since the recession began in December of 2007, New York City has lost more than 18,000 bankers from its ranks, making it 10 percent smaller today."

"We thought it made for a pretty interesting chart."

http://www.businessinsider.com/investment-bank-jobs-nyc-2012-8

pulaski: about 9 months ago

"Baffle With BS Continues: Non-Manufacturing ISM Better Than Expected As Employment Drops To Lowest Since 2011"

"The strategy to keep everyone utterly confused and merely chasing momentum and trends continues. After the surge in this morning's NFP report, driven entirely by statistical fudging and part-time jobs, which has sent the market higher by well over 1%, we next get a Services ISM update for July according to which the US non-manufcaturing sector improved modestly, to 52.6, on expectations of an unchanged print at 52.1, making the case for NEW QE even more distant.

But wait, just to keep everyone totally baffled with BS, the ISM says that the employment index dipped below 50 for the first time since 2011, printing at 49.3 from 52.3: in other words, the employment in the US services sector is now contracting, something which the NFP number roundly denied. Confusion? Mutual exclusivity? It doesn't matter to algos, who are confident that the Fed will certainly launch more QE with the S&P at 2012 highs no matter what the facts say. "

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/baffle-bs-continues-non-manufacturing-ism-better-expected-employment-drops-lowest-2011

dc10023: about 9 months ago

8.3% as you mention is also impacted by the shadow unemployment effect. As more jobs are created, those that were deemed no longer looking for work (discouraged workers), re-join the job searching population as unemployed again.

Still 1 in 6 are not working (or under employed)... Is it better than 2009, perhaps... But not far from good.

pulaski: about 9 months ago

"JOBS REPORT CRUSHES EXPECTATIONS, BUT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE RISES TO 8.3%"

"The jobs report number is out, and it's good. But it's not amazing.

There were 163K net new jobs, well ahead of last month, and well ahead of expectations. Analysts had only been looking for 100K new jobs.

PRIVATE payrolls surged by 172K. That's well ahead of the 110K that was expected.

But there is a dark side.

The unemployment rate rose to 8.3% although this was due to a miniscule move and a rounding error..

And U-6, which is a broader measure of unemployment that includes discouraged workers and the uneremployed, rose to 15.0% from 14.9%.

http://www.businessinsider.com/july-jobs-report-2012-8

marco_m: about 9 months ago

big number tomorrow...im taking the over....+125k

pulaski: about 9 months ago

"Deutsche Bank To Lay Off 1900, As Meredith Whitney Predicts 50K Total Wall Street Layoffs"

"Deutsche Bank is laying off 1900 people. 1500 of them are in the investment bank.

This news comes as Meredith Whitney's been chatting with Tom Keene on Bloomberg TV this morning, and just as she started explaining why she thought Wall Street's big banks would initiate massive layoffs (50,000, actually)."

http://www.businessinsider.com/deutsche-bank-layoffs-2012-7

str33teasier: about 10 months ago

job gains at the low wages level and job losses at the high wages level .. nice trade off ...

* [The bank said it plans to cut senior positions, but it still plans to hire junior employees through channels such as regular campus recruiting, meaning overall headcount may increase by the end of the year, Viniar said.]

http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2012-07-17/business/sns-rt-us-goldman-resultsbre86g0fv-20120717_1_david-viniar-goldman-private-bank

pulaski: about 10 months ago

July 19, 2012

"Unemployment returns to recession level"

"Job gains for the city were not enough to prevent the unemployment rate from hitting double digits, according to state data released Thursday."

" Despite continued job gains, the city's unemployment rate jumped to 10% in June, from 9.7% in May, matching its recession peak, the state Department of Labor reported Thursday.

The jobless rate was more than a full percentage point above last June's figure.

"It's definitely sending a message that residents are having a harder time finding work this year than last year," said James Brown, principal economist at the Labor Department."

AvUWS: about 10 months ago

Sorry, but the creation of 169,000 jobs per month after the largest recession and job loss since the great depression is not an accomplishment. I am agnostic on the NY RE market, I thought it would drop more but it hasn't. But I do know the US small business and manufacturing market and things are not all wine and roses. They are no longer dismal, but no one is adding jobs they don't have to and the only businesses I know that are doing gangbusters are in manufacturing automation.

Every businessman I know is spending more of their capital reducing labor than increasing sales.

pulaski: about 10 months ago

"ECONOMIST: The Jobs Slowdown Is A Myth, And The Expansion Is On Track"

"The economy has created some 902,000 jobs through June of this year, running at the same pace seen in 2011 — when 1.840 million positions were created.

The question is, is that enough to put Americans back to work?

According to Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi Chief Economist Chris Rupkey, it is.

Rupkey notes that the 153,000 average in 2010 was fast enough to lower the unemployment rate 90 basis points in 2011 to 8.5 percent.

He writes:

From the end of the labor market recession in February 2010 when private job losses stopped, the economy has created 4.372 million jobs."

http://www.businessinsider.com/chris-rupkey-june-private-payrolls-2012-7

pulaski: about 10 months ago

"It Could Take Longer Than Anyone Thought To Escape The Unemployment Black Hole"

"The more sobering view comes from the Brookings Institution. As of June, the U.S. faces a “jobs gap” of 11.3 million jobs since the start of the Great Recession in December 2007. Under the assumption of 208,000 new jobs per month, it will take until June 2020 – or eight years – to close the jobs gap. At 321,000 jobs per month, the economy will reach pre-recession employment levels by August 2016."

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-black-hole-of-jobless-in-america-2012-7

marco_m: about 10 months ago

definitely no good. romney crushed obama on tv today

pulaski: about 10 months ago

"June Employment Report: 80,000 Jobs, 8.2% Unemployment Rate"

"Nonfarm payroll employment continued to edge up in June ( 80,000), and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.2 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.
...
Both the civilian labor force participation rate and the employment-population ratio were unchanged in June at 63.8 and 58.6 percent, respectively.
...
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for April was revised from 77,000 to 68,000, and the change for May was revised from 69,000 to 77,000. "

"This was another weak month, and the revisions for the previous two months were offsetting.

This was below expectations of 90,000 payroll jobs added."

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/07/june-employment-report-80000-jobs-82.html

"Obama Calls The Jobs Report A 'Step In The Right Direction' "

http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-jobs-report-is-a-step-in-the-right-direction-2012-7

str33teasier: about 10 months ago

If you look at the fluctuation of the jobless claims between the beginning of June and today, which is for the end of june, the #s have been flat! No improvement.

Truth: about 10 months ago

streeteasy is always hiring:

"We're hiring!"

pulaski: about 10 months ago

"ADP Says Better Than Expected 176K Private Jobs Added, Of Which Only 4,000 Manufactuing Jobs"

"The ADP Private jobs report is out, and in June America allegedly created 176K private jobs, better than expectations of 100K, and up from last month's 136K revised print. What hasn't changed is the continued lack of correlation between the ADP and the NFP report, nor the ongoing deterioration in claims. More importantly, Obama's promise of doubling US exports in 5 years from 2 years ago may be in jeopardy, since of the 176,000K extra jobs created, a whopping 4K was in manufacturing, the rest, or 160,000K, was service jobs."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/adp-says-better-expected-176k-private-jobs-added-which-only-4000-manufactuing-jobs

pulaski: about 11 months ago

"As Job Openings Plunge By Most Since May 2010, Beveridge Curve Goes Berserk"

"The BLS April JOLTS survey was released earlier and it was ugly - of particular attention was the number of "job opening" which collapsed from 3.741MM to 3.416MM, a drop of 325,000, which just happens to be the biggest decline since May 2010. It is also the 6th largest drop in history as the second chart below from John Lohman shows.

Adding to the dire jobs picture was the New Hires number which dropped by 160,000, the biggest sequential drop since April 2011, and finally separations, which after months of increases (remember: more separations is a good thing supposedly, meaning people are confident they can find better paying jobs elsewhere), had their biggest drop by 81,000, also the most since April 2011. "

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/job-openings-plunge-most-may-2010-beveridge-curve-goes-berserk

somewhereelse: about 11 months ago

well, they're already wrong in many cases....

Brooks2: about 11 months ago

and some think we hit the lows in RE in 09'... just wait

pulaski: about 11 months ago

"CHART OF THE DAY: The Scariest Jobs Chart Ever"

"With today's punk jobs report, it's time to revisit this famous chart from Bill McBride at Calculated Risk...

What it shows is the trajectory of job losses and gains from the start of the recession and the "recovery" compared to all other post-WWII job losses and recoveries.

As you can see, this collapse was totally unprecedented compared to past ones, and the recovery was far weaker than any others.

Just check out that red line."

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-percent-job-losses-in-post-wwii-recessions-2012-6

somewhereelse: about 11 months ago

the headlines are calling this a "terrible" jobs report.

Jeez, who posted this thread with the horribly wrong title?

JButton: about 11 months ago

Job growth was weak in May. Just as bad: the type of jobs the economy did manage to add.

According to today’s jobs report, 422,000 more Americans were employed in May than in April. (The figure is based on a monthly survey of around 60,000 households. The more widely cited figure of 69,000 payroll jobs is based on a separate survey of employers.) That isn’t a great number, but it’s better than April, when the number of Americans with jobs actually fell by 169,000.

But the job growth is coming entirely from workers getting part-time jobs. The number of Americans working full-time fell by 266,000 in May, erasing all the gains of the past three months. The total employment figure only rose because 618,000 more people got part-time jobs. Many of those people would rather be working full-time: The number of people classified as “part time for economic reasons” — meaning they’re working part-time because they can’t find a full-time job — rose by 245,000 to 8.1 million.

Brooks2: about 11 months ago

well we agree on something macro

pulaski: about 11 months ago

"JOBS REPORT DISASTER: JUST 69K NEW JOBS CREATED, UNEMPLOYMENT RISES, DOW PLUNGES 2.2%"

"The number is out.... It's bad.

There were just 69K net new jobs created in May. That's well below the Wall Street consensus of 150K.

Unemployment ticks up to 8.2%. It was 8.1% last month.

The market hates the news. Dow futures are off 202 points.

But what about revisions to past months? In the past they've been getting revised up.

But they were ugly too.

Last month was revised down from 115K to 77K."

http://www.businessinsider.com/the-may-non-farm-payrolls-report-2012-6

marco_m: about 11 months ago

the good news is that Obama is out!

Brooks2: about 11 months ago

69k ut ohh

Brooks2: about 11 months ago

expect a sub 100k # tomorrow

pulaski: about 11 months ago

"ADP Private Payrolls Print At 133K, Miss Expectations; Manufacturing Jobs Drop Two Months In A Row"

"That the ADP would miss today's expectations of 150K is no surprise: after all as we have been explaining for a while, the only way the Fed will have a green light to proceed with NEW QE if it so chooses at the June 19-20 meeting, is if the economic data suddenly turn horrendous. Which means tomorrow's NFP data is make or break: in fact, as far as markets are concerned, the worse the better - should a -1,000,000 NFP print come in, stocks will soar. Which is why the ADP print, which indeed was a miss, of 133K raised eyebrows that it wasn't bigger. Still, 3rd consecutive miss of expectations in a row, and 4th out of the last 5, it gives the BLS enough rope with which to hang itself, and potentially the president, who may have no choice but to sacrifice job creation "momentum" heading into the presidential race, in order to keep stocks higher.

Note the -2,000 change in manufcaturing jobs. We for one, can't wait for that "doubling of exports in 5 years" Obama promised 2 years ago."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/adp-private-payrolls-print-133k-miss-expectations-manufacturing-jobs-drop-two-months-row

Brooks2: about 12 months ago

hmm with the 10yr at 1.875% eguities closed close to the lows of the day..

rates are low cuz the Economy blows.. economy blows

dc10023: about 12 months ago

I agree with JButton, the line isn't zero, its population growth. So relative to that, the real payroll change is -65k. Not doomsday but not really in the right direction (recovery) yet either.

marco_m: about 12 months ago

of course we need more, but at least we're moving in the right direction.

JButton: about 12 months ago

marco, payroll up 115k, population growth 180k. we need more than just positive payroll #

marco_m: about 12 months ago

unemplyment rate is a joke of a number..no question. as long as we keep seeing positive pay roll numbers, the rest will take care of itself.

Brooks2: about 12 months ago

i wonder what time equities are going to roar back up?

dc10023: about 12 months ago

i agree in general the employment numbers can't be compared to historical numbers (i.e. 8.1%) when such numbers don't count so many people who fall off the backend. participation rate can be used to see real level of employment and recovery. Although, there may be a case to be made that even in better times we would expect these to be lower than historical values... but even so not this low!