Random Advice

Apt_Boy: about 2 years ago

"But I do get tired of the structural bias of this site"

Not tired enough to continually type... "I am more than happy to help you with that purchase"

"which is that the people who are in synch with the way I think hire me, do their transactions, and then move on"

So I guess that people who are willing to overpay for a property are the ones in sync with you

Wbottom: about 2 years ago

how much does a banner cost on this site??

Wbottom: about 2 years ago

shilleroooooo!!

buy a banner!!

front_porch: about 2 years ago

ar, I'm not denying that my occupation may bias me; that's why I let everyone know on every post that I'm an agent.

But I do get tired of the structural bias of this site, which is that the people who are in synch with the way I think hire me, do their transactions, and then move on,

while there's a perma-population of people who aren't in synch with the way I think who seem to enjoy sticking around and making personal attacks.

As I indicated above, I think the time to call pricing of this market is in three weeks, and it seems like a lot of the responses I got to that comment were not discussing pricing at all, but to immediately start talking about volume.

Thank you ar for being civilized, and at the beginning of March let's do a new thread and have a spirited debate on pricing.

ali r.
DG Neary Realty

Apt_Boy: about 2 years ago

"You can disagree with my interpretation of my information, but it IS fresher information. That's one reason my clients hire me."

Yes, the info is Fresh as a Summers Eve and about as useful.

Wbottom: about 2 years ago

and ar is spot on--go to UD and subscribe--contracts signed is on seasonal trend at lower levels than last year and higher than 2009

Wbottom: about 2 years ago

UD's realtime data on contract signings is way more interesting than the usual heartfelt agendized current-feel-of-the-market crap from some broker (rarely feels awful, that's for sure)

circa 2011, same and/or better info than any broker can provide is availble to anyone who wants to easily find it--and then, once found, the data can be reviewed objectively, without a broker-who-needs-to-get-deals-done's agenda/filter applied

tina24hour: about 2 years ago

DTDWIH - do you know if the garage still retains the air rights? They may not have sold them to this building, but it they sold to someone else you may be clear of danger on that front.

aboutready: about 2 years ago

ali, i'm not accusing you of being a cheerleader. but every single damned up season (spring, post Labor Day), at the beginning, the same thing is said: i'm seeing strength, yada, yada, yada. then when comps show up some apartments surprise to the down, some to the up, and the remaining seem consistent with their submarket trend (which may be veering down or up).

at the big shops they have regular meetings with "experts" who regale the brokers with tales of market improvement, etc. and i think there is selection bias as well. just as i tend to focus more (although not exclusively, by any means) on the downside, brokers very much focus on the success stories. inventory is just truly starting to build, i'm in no hurry to call this season in either direction. i think you are much more so inclined.

aboutready: about 2 years ago

ali, you really think i don't follow new and current listings as well?

front_porch: about 2 years ago

I appreciate the input of the skilled observers here, but those on the sidelines are tracking sold comps. I'm getting a fresher sense of the market than that, by being out in it as properties are listed and move into contract.

You can disagree with my interpretation of my information, but it IS fresher information. That's one reason my clients hire me.

I see the latest bidding war in Tribeca as evidence that there's strong demand in the 2/2 space.

ali r.
DG Neary Realty

urbandigs: about 2 years ago

older post, but I liked this one:

http://www.urbandigs.com/2009/07/so_what_happened_since_lehman.html

urbandigs: about 2 years ago

Ill chime in..few things.

First, and foremost:

1. Look at the Contract Signed date, NOT the sale date. Go to ACRIS and look at the IMG doc to find the RP-5217 (I think thats the form) and it should show the actual contract signed date. You need to know this for a time adjustment> If it closed NOV 2009, it may have signed June-Aug 2009..and that period is right after what I called the bottom and the fear trades (early 2009 up to about April)

2. STAY IN YOUR BLDG for comps...if your broker goes outside, he is looking to ways to make the asking price work. Stay in your same line, minimize the variables! Try to keep adjustments to time adjustment, floor adjustment, and renovation adjustment only. If you have to do a size adjustment, fine, but make sure its the same kind of property..i.e., if its a 2br/2bth, look at other 2br/2bth that are around the same exposures as yours.

3. The TIME adjustment in your case if the deal was signed summer of 2009, in your price point (1-2m), I would say is between +8% to +12% or so. If it was signed in Feb-April 2009, Id up that to +10 to + 15% as fear trades in that period really defined the downturn we had. This price point was prob trading down 20-30% from peak when fear really was high for that small period of time. Now, that market is prob trading down around 12-18% or so from peak.

DTDWIH: about 2 years ago

Thank you Rangersfan. I did notice people do seem like they're frustrated when i read some of the blogs....

rangersfan: about 2 years ago

dtwih, all i can recommend here is that aboutready has the least ax to grind here is giving you good advice on comps and how to reconcile your questions. she is a great source of unbias info on the current state of play in the markets but ultimately you need to do what feels right for you after the appropriate due diligence. se insider will give you the access to good comps so ultimately that should drive your decision but my advice is to sprinkle that with ar expertise. will serve you well.

nycREjunkie: about 2 years ago

Sounds to me like you got vast majority of info on here rather than your broker. Shocking! And this cost you $20. You made right decision. Greedy, unrealistic, egotistical seller?.......GFY.

DTDWIH: about 2 years ago

Thanks SMattingly. Interesting Blog! Apparently the air rights are not owned by building on the garage next door so there is a large risk of one of the best things about the apartment being compromised. That and the price would have me not sleeping at night. You all were very helpful...along with my broker looking into these things.

buster2056: about 2 years ago

My two cents:
1) Sellers bought at the ultimate low and probably feel they deserve to profit
2) They priced it in line with some comps in the area and below others
3) If the listing languishes, this price gives them room to chop about 10-15% off of the price and still break even after brokers commission
4) If it's any consolation, this flatiron neighbor appears to be doing the same thing on a smaller scale: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/581181-coop-21-east-22nd-street-flatiron-new-york
5) If you buy the place, you should replace those floors - ugh

Apt_Boy: about 2 years ago

Ali R...

as Ali G once said...

"Is you on crack or somethin'?"

SMattingly: about 2 years ago

DTDWIH -- I am not going to give you advice on bidding here, but I found your question and the responses this morning so interesting that I did a looong blog post dealing with some of the data questions you and others have raised. It will take you some time to read, but you may find it worthwhile.

I have no public opinion on that price, or on how your agent is doing, but I can endorse AR's description of the market: "it's accurate to say that some properties are selling for more, some for less, some for around the same, as the 2009 lows. many aren't selling at all. some are selling immediately."

http://www.realtown.com/sandymattingly/blog/the-process-buying-an-apartme/how-to-read-past-sale-data-one-flatiron-loft-laboratory/

Good luck.

Apt_Boy: about 2 years ago

"The factors for an uptick are there" = Buy now or be priced out of NYC forever

Ali G., you really must have read Lawerence Yun's playbook closely

front_porch: about 2 years ago

The factors for an uptick are there: Wall Streeters didn't lose their jobs, equities didn't tank, and now there's a new round of bonus money (even if it is thinly spread).

But I think we need three more weeks before we can call a pricing trend.

However, I reiterate that I am in direct competition with your broker, whoever he or she is, and from where I'm standing he or she seems to be doing a fine job.

ali r.
DG Neary Realty

KeithB: about 2 years ago

This should help with the mechanics. (understanding the value of this place is not rocket science, and in your heart you know what an appropriate range is, I always give a range with explanations. But if someone decided to purchase with more heart than brain, well....)

A bidding strategy on a property like this needs to be well thought out; will the seller even consider $1.450 after such a short time on? IMHO; No. So do you waste your breath or be patient and let the market forces work? If what "we" are thinking (final price willing to pay) is to far from where "they" are, I usually advise some patient watching, this is if the property has been listed less than 30-45 days. If the property has languished for 2+ months, then we bid and lay out our case.

Either way, best of luck!
http://www.urbandigs.com/2009/07/valuing_manhattan_real_estate.html

Keith (broker)
http://ubivoletaudentunicornium.blogspot.com/

aboutready: about 2 years ago

No, it's accurate to say that some properties are selling for more, some for less, some for around the same, as the 2009 lows. many aren't selling at all. some are selling immediately.

needsadvice: about 2 years ago

See Urbandigs, subscribers have that access.

DTDWIH: about 2 years ago

Thanks All. But is it accurate to say that prices are rising?

Wbottom: about 2 years ago

regardless of what you think of your broker, advocate for yourself--it's too easy, on SE and Urban Digs--the UD acris feature simplifies--it'll take you 30 minutes to know all there is to know of what your broker seems to know so little--or maybe knows plenty of, but needs to do a deal

front_porch: about 2 years ago

^^I was just going to recommend Digs too!

Ali

needsadvice: about 2 years ago

I don't understand the escalation either.

I think it's suppressed seller greed as opposed to suppressed consumer demand.

But if you look at Urbandigs, (http://www.urbandigs.com/) they have a lot of useful info. For the amount you're about to spend, it's worth it to subscribe and check neighborhood trends, which seems to be what you're most concerned with.

DTDWIH: about 2 years ago

Thanks Guys. I did see the 2nd floor unit and it's really dark and depressing. I assumed prices were going up but the 20% escalation is what confuses me. Especially since we're not really out of the woods. If someone could explain that level of escalation I'd be grateful.

needsadvice: about 2 years ago

I will say, though, that prices are going up. My sister bought a 2/1 condo in fall 2009, for $750 sq ft. (1,000 sq ft total) Now the comps in her building are all listing and selling at $1000+ per sq ft. Even a 1 bed closed for $150K more than she paid. How long ago was that? 15-18 months?

Crazy escalation.

She is not seeing a double dip.

aboutready: about 2 years ago

needsadvice, the second floor probably doesn't meet the light requirement.

DTDWIH, it seemed to me that a lot of downtown inventory was pulled this winter. my advice would be to stick to your budget. i actually got an apartment that way once, i lowballed and said, sorry this is as high is it's going to go because it's my budget, and i got the unit.

it's still early in the spring build up. i wouldn't jump because of a lack of inventory just yet.

needsadvice: about 2 years ago

I see this listing from December, 2010:
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/553016-condo-49-e-21st-st-flatiron-new-york

No longer available in Dec, probably off the market for the holidays.

Why not contact their broker, and see what the deal is? If it comes back in the spring at $1.4, will you be bothered?

DTDWIH: about 2 years ago

Hi, Yes I am. I guess I'll have to look at my own comps in future. I generally look at the building I'm looking in as I think all places are unique and hard to gauge one against the other sometimes. But I do see overall not much is selling. There also is little inventory. We've been told we have a tall order, downtown, 2 bed 2 bath, light, doorman, reasonable space,condo under 1.6k as we want what many want and there isn't much out there etc.. etc...

aboutready: about 2 years ago

there are others. some can be explained away (it's a coop) but still should be considered. are you an SE insider?

DTDWIH: about 2 years ago

Hi, No funny that one was left out. This gets me really annoyed.

aboutready: about 2 years ago

comps like this one?

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/182543-condo-27-west-19th-street-flatiron-new-york

DTDWIH: about 2 years ago

The Broker is running comps all over the neighborhood and going back almost a year since there is so little activity. Pointing out to us that if we notice the most recent comps, albeit small, are much higher than the earlier comps. Meaning that pricing is more like 1200 plus per sq. foot. I just have a difficult time with the same unit going up 350k in one year and being adviced that it's in line with market.
It just feels like something is not right.

drdrd: about 2 years ago

It sounds like you're doing fine with your reasoning & pricing; it's YOUR money so don't let the broker tell you how to spend it. Someone mentioned high monthlies. Remember that your purchase price will not change but your monthlies will only increase. Make the bid you're comfortable with & see what happens & don't fall in love with an apartment until after you buy it. Good luck.

front_porch: about 2 years ago

I specialize in downtown: we're in a very bifurcated market. There are properties that aren't closing at all, and properties that are causing, for lack of a better word, group gropes.

West 19th had 60 customers at the first OH, and supposedly eight bids in the first round. 108 Reade, a small 2-BR walkdown, just went to best and final a week after listing. Both properties, in the view of my clients, needed work.

My guess is that your broker isn't just pricing off past comps, but that he/she is taking into account the total scrum that certain 2-3BR properties are causing.

Sounds to me like your broker is doing a good job. As others have pointed out, the way to test that is to put in lower bids, and see what happens.

ali r.
DG Neary Realty