Wall Street’s Share of New York Jobs Hits Low

JButton: about 10 months ago

thanks somewhereelse for all these comments. now back in the hole and we'll hear from you in a week.

somewhereelse: about 10 months ago

"in this case, on both fronts, logic and hissiness, i see elsewhere as the clear winner"

woo-hoo!

jason10006: about 11 months ago

Yikes, AGAIN, my post merely stated what the bull and bear cases were. Or two of them anyway.

I think the high pay of WS makes the bear case more compelling, I agree. But clearly you have even a Fed member and of course Mayor Bloomberg touting the bull case so its not like I pulled it out of the air.

huntersburg: about 11 months ago

>i tend to look for the bear case

As that is what miserable people do.

yikes: about 11 months ago

nyc employment gains of recent (private employment, that is) have been largely in the retail sector. tech has had gains tho not nearly enough to offset losses in finance.

not sure how to read the increase in comm'l re taken by tech companies--you can bet it's a wash with losses of finance related office tenants--might not even cover

i tend to look for the bear case

jason10006: about 11 months ago

Here is the same article but with different headline: "New York is relying less and less on Wall Street."

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-07/wall-street-s-share-of-new-york-jobs-hits-low-chart-of-the-day?category=

Hmmmm. Sounds suspiciously like what I actually said.

Here is someone else making the same bull case WHICH I MERELY POINTED OUT EXISTS, not that I agree with:

"Once again, I seem to be the most optimistic. In fact, I completely agree with New York Federal Reserve Board President William Dudley, who told the Times that the city’s economy is far more diversified that it used to be. I would add that the economists continue to underestimate how diversified New York has become.

http://mycrains.crainsnewyork.com/blogs/greg-david-on-ny/2011/08/the-case-for-nys-diversified-economy/#ixzz1yvUZW8io

Here is another: http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-05-30/dudley-says-fiscal-shock-could-cause-another-u-dot-s-dot-recession

So clearly, I did not make up such a bull case. I merely pointed out what the bull case is.

jason10006: about 11 months ago

Nope. Here is what the article said:

"The city’s economy has become less dependent on Wall Street and is “doing quite well,” Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William C. Dudley said May 30. Other industries including tourism have helped boost the city’s economy, he said at the district bank’s regional economic briefing in New York.....

...While the share of finance jobs has continued to diminish since the credit crisis began in 2007, New York’s private workforce has recovered faster than the nation’s. Since the end of the recession, private employment in New York City has increased by 5.6 percent, while the national level of employment has climbed by 2.3 percent."

Not all sectors are going down at once, and there have been all sorts of other articles about tech taking up a lot of slack. Hence the diversification is not happening ALL because WS jobs are going down.

See for example "What’s The Deal: Tech on a Tear...

...According to the report, the tech sector fueled 159 real-estate deals in 2011, compared with just 74 in 2008. Companies that have embarked on well-known expansions in New York City include Google, Facebook, eBay, Apple and Twitter. Apple Inc. has nearly quintupled its foothold since 2008 to 55,000 square feet today, and Facebook has tripled in size to 40,000 square feet, according to the report..."

http://blogs.wsj.com/metropolis/2012/06/25/whats-the-deal-tech-on-a-tear/?KEYWORDS=technology+real+estate+new+york

If what I were saying was the same as what somewhere says I am saying, I would be wrong. But s/he read way more into my offhand comment than was actually present.

The bull case remains - and this is the bull case analysts and economists (and politicians) make about NYC real estate, both residential and commercial, is it depends on a more diverse workforce than it did in the past.

Since I presented both a bear and a bull case, I was not making a stand one way or another.

Brooks2: about 11 months ago

yup yikes

yikes: about 11 months ago

much as i generally respect the opinions of jason and elsewhwere, i must offer that they could very well be our two posters with best capability to be hissiest--and i respect that too, as sometimes that hissy is warranted--has even been pointed for good reason at times at me.

in this case, on both fronts, logic and hissiness, i see elsewhere as the clear winner

despite that he was educated at the inferior stuyvsant HS.

i will concede that there was no cellphone cheating when he attended:

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/manhattan/stuy_cheat_shock_jOT0ipGO2eoQdBeVzSdLBM

notadmin: about 11 months ago

the finance sector is still bloated wrt the size of the economy. expect more shrinking ahead, it's gonna take years ...

somewhereelse: about 11 months ago

> somewhereelse, your post is utterly redundant because I SAY THE EXACT SAME THING in my post.

actually, you said the opposite.

"Its better to have a diverse workforce, so a downturn in one sector does not adversely affect RE. "

And it is actually worse now that I read it again.

We have a downturn in a sector, and now that is a POSITIVE because that sector, being down considerably, can't have as much of an impact now?

Follow that logic... would it be great if ALL our big sectors fell, so then we would have more diversification.

Or let's go for an analogy.

I have 75% of my assets invested in RE. 25% in stocks.

RE loses 2/3 of its value.

Yay, I just benefitted from "diversification"! Woo hoo!

Diversification on its own is helpful. When it comes as the offshoot of major losses, it is not a positive.

yikes: about 11 months ago

in fact, Matt, sector in nyc with most gains in employment has been retail

actually jason, you offer what elsewhere says as one of two reasonable takes

elsewhere, as always, embraces the bear take--in this case, i agree with him

over time it will be healthy for nyc to become less dependent on wall st, which is largely a non-productive business, which will likely be regulated such that it is less volatile, less a liability for the economy and to the taxpayer, and less profitable.

but, net, now, the loss of wall st jobs is a neg for nyc re

jason10006: about 11 months ago

somewhereelse, your post is utterly redundant because I SAY THE EXACT SAME THING in my post.

Brooks2: about 11 months ago

so lets buy RE near a Burger King franchise... or is it the other way around?

NYCMatt: about 11 months ago

Has there been a spike in Burger King hirings in New York? I must have missed that.

somewhereelse: about 11 months ago

"Its better to have a diverse workforce, so a downturn in one sector does not adversely affect RE. That's the bull case."

So, let's trade in half the wall street jobs for burger king jobs, so we'll be diverse.

The diversity is not a positive when it comes from...
trading higher paying jobs for lower paying jobs
simply getting rid of jobs (the ratios look better, but you have fewer jobs)

Wall Street is what drove prices higher... this will only reverse that.

Brooks2: about 11 months ago

so condo prices will keep rising on a PSF basis and all those that purchase a condo for under 3mm will think there apartment is increasing in value... until they try to sell it

JButton: about 11 months ago

there's still a lot of money in finance so looks like the pie is being divided by less people. so there are more super rich and less rich. bullish for 10+mm bearish under.

jason10006: about 11 months ago

Its better to have a diverse workforce, so a downturn in one sector does not adversely affect RE. That's the bull case.

Bear case: Wall Street jobs pay so much better than any other sector, on average, including the recently touted tech area.

huntersburg: about 11 months ago

At what point will Wall Street be able to get rid of people from California?

yikes: about 11 months ago

bullish or bearish? can be spun either way

jason10006: about 11 months ago

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-07/wall-street-s-share-of-new-york-jobs-hits-low-chart-of-the-day.html