GS take on NYC RE

w67thstreet: about 10 months ago

patient09... no, you double fuckin ROCK! Me, I likez me ABBA and Spandau Ballet :)

and Dylan :)

bjw2103: about 10 months ago

You got me! I was slightly incredulous someone would misspell his name - glad it wasn't really so!

patient09: about 10 months ago

once again..that's the goof, get it?..dillon=dylan....67, we knew one would fall for it

bjw2103: about 10 months ago

patient09, who is Bob Dillon?

patient09: about 10 months ago

67, you fuckin rock! screw those who don't get it. Its like the first time you ever heard Bob Dillon, you either got it, or you didn't. And if you don't, well, we can't it explain to you!

bjw2103: about 10 months ago

JuiceMan, I noticed that as well. I am not surprised though.

aboutready: about 10 months ago

happyowner - "I agree with Cramer" Did you really just write that? Wow.

I agree with Greenspan. I agree that he totally underestimated the financial community's ability to screw itself beyond recognition, and overestimated its ability to look forward and self-regulate to minimize or avoid said destruction.

w67th, I'm a bit despondent myself about Obama these days. One can hope, but the well is awfully low.

JuiceMan: about 10 months ago

You are one weird dude w67th

w67thstreet: about 10 months ago

Excuse me Mr. Juiceman, I believe ass=idiot, and contrary to your belief if you can choose to be an ass (on and off) then you are by definition an idiot... like I'll be an ass to my wife, but be okay to the hot dog guys... see the problem? no, Well, then you are an assdoucheidiot....

happyowner.... happywishing.... if that doesn't work fein hardship and drag yourself to bankruptcy court... apparently the US gov't is all about bailing out anyone who is under water...
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/09/business/economy/09loan.html?hp

Maybe I can become a bank holding company and getz me some TARP $.... if Discover Credit card can do it, bc they know the "sh-t" bowl of consumer credit that's going to be handed out in the next 3 qtrs.. .then happyowner should have no problem faking hardship to re-cut his mortgage....

Let's just bail out the over-leveraged idiots... GO OBAMA! Can't believe I voted for that idiot, but shooting under-water homeowners ala Palin isn't too fun either... :)

unbelievable: about 10 months ago

it's going lower

JuiceMan: about 10 months ago

"I know you desperately want to be right RIGHT NOW, but be patient."

bjw2103, I caught nyc10022 doing this the other day. He said Q3 median prices went up in the UWS because of 15 CPW closings. He then compared Q4 UWS numbers to Q3 UWS numbers, claimed a huge decrease in prices (20%) but never mentioned 15 CPW. Why do you think he does it?

happyowner: about 10 months ago

BTW, the data says co-ops per foot are down about 3 percent. Whoopee! Most Q4s are a bit weak.

happyowner: about 10 months ago

nyc - Noone argues that the market will go up anymore. We also don't even have the "will it be 5% or 20%" arguments. Notice how the arguments are now "will it be down 20% or 40-50%".

You forgot me!! *waves hand*

I agree with Cramer that the next few months will be weak for the occasional sellers who get panicked and throw away their apartments, but then it will recover nicely. Q1 2010 will surpass Q1 2009. Thanks for playing!!

JuiceMan: about 10 months ago

"Doosh-man"

I'm confused aj202. You are the one who 1) doesn't understand his own posts and 2) can't comprehend mine, and I'm the douche?

"but many of those other counties who have much higher transaction values and impact that series more meaningfully, are directly related to the NYC economy, so RE prices will correlate closely."

Really? I can't wait for your white paper describing the correlation between 15 CPW and Skyview at Carriage City. Here are the benefits of Skyview:

Community Features & Amenities
– Only minutes from shopping at Woodbridge Center and Menlo Park, and only 11 miles to the Mall at Short Hills
– Close to several large corporations including Merck & Co., Schering Plough, Lucent Technologies, Novartis
– Close to many institutions of higher learning: Rutgers, Princeton, Kean & others
– Excellent central location within minutes of major highway and public transportation including train and bus service
– Located midway between Manhattan and the New Jersey Shore area
– 30 minutes to Manhattan by train
– 17 minutes to Newark Airport
– 32 minutes to Princeton
– 45 minutes to Trenton
– 35 minutes to the Jersey Shore

Wow, you can live in a mall!! LMAO!

"like spending your day acting the ass on streeteasy."

I would rather be an ass than an idiot. I can choose not to be an ass, you will always be an idiot.

bjw2103: about 10 months ago

"Yes, and all the data you used then was wrong... even the report you like shows the drop you denied."

This is patently untrue. Look at the Streeteasy Quarterly reports. Median price in Q2 was up 8.1% from Q1, and then -5.5% from Q2 to Q3. That's hardly the -12% (from Q1) you kept bandying about. The Corcoran report showed a slight decline, but again, NOT what you were saying. I don't deny drops - I just prefer having legit data posted here, and you seem not to care for that.

"Thats like saying you wanted to know the price of gas, but you went with the report on corn prices because its more reliable.

Data from the wrong period is simply not reliable, particularly when much of it is from PRE the event that folks are trying to determine the effects of.

Reliable meaningless data is still meaningless data..."

That's a pretty atrocious analogy. I'm comparing the prices of Manhattan apartments to... Manhattan apartments. I know you don't like the data, but it's there, and it's the most recent. There is nothing more reliable and current out there right now - sorry, Fed Beige Book is not comparable, as it's mostly narrative (and the one sentence in there isn't even talking about closings!).

coopownr98: about 10 months ago

Where was this article published? Is there a link? Thanks.

nyc10022: about 10 months ago

> i believe it would be prune juice.... 50% by Q2 09'... and yes I'd like a cookie :)

lol

nyc10022: about 10 months ago

> I know you desperately want to be right RIGHT NOW, but be patient.

Doesn't matter when YOU find out, if I'm right, I'm right.... whether you know it or not.
;-)

nyc10022: about 10 months ago

"Wrong (again!) - you were trying to make that claim from the Q3 data and I pointed out that you purposely ignored the two other reports (one of which was Streeteasy's, which could be argued is the least subject to broker "spin") that did not show such a drop."

Yes, and all the data you used then was wrong... even the report you like shows the drop you denied.

> Except it's the most recent, reliable data.

Thats like saying you wanted to know the price of gas, but you went with the report on corn prices because its more reliable.

Data from the wrong period is simply not reliable, particularly when much of it is from PRE the event that folks are trying to determine the effects of.

Reliable meaningless data is still meaningless data...

w67thstreet: about 10 months ago

i believe it would be prune juice.... 50% by Q2 09'... and yes I'd like a cookie :)

bjw2103: about 10 months ago

"Nope, just saying that you're looking at outdated data..."

Except it's the most recent, reliable data. I know you desperately want to be right RIGHT NOW, but be patient.

bjw2103: about 10 months ago

"Funny that he's now (a little late though) trying to use the data from that same same period - which I was right on about - to tell me I'm wrong again...

In fact, 12% was exactly what I said, and he complained...."

Wrong (again!) - you were trying to make that claim from the Q3 data and I pointed out that you purposely ignored the two other reports (one of which was Streeteasy's, which could be argued is the least subject to broker "spin") that did not show such a drop.

nyc10022: about 10 months ago

> but you're saying the Miller Samuel data says something it doesn't

Nope, just saying that you're looking at outdated data...

bjw2103: about 10 months ago

Topper, exactly, and therefore it's not comparable. nyc10022, your agenda belies the actual data. I said very clearly that the Q1 stats may well show further drops in prices and sales volumes, but you're saying the Miller Samuel data says something it doesn't. If you don't believe it, run it yourself: http://www.millersamuel.com/data/

nyc10022: about 10 months ago

btw, its funny... I remember bjw trying to scold me for saying the market was down double digits, back in November.

Funny that he's now (a little late though) trying to use the data from that same same period - which I was right on about - to tell me I'm wrong again...

In fact, 12% was exactly what I said, and he complained....

Topper: about 10 months ago

I assume you know that the (15% to) 20% figure mentioned was related to "contract" sales, not closings.

nyc10022: about 10 months ago

> but worth noting (again) that this is wilfull misdirection.

The misdirection is yours and yours alone (again)... you're looking at past stats, closed contracts from months back.

The miller samuel numbers for NEW contracts are just as I said.

bjw2103: about 10 months ago

"If you want co-ops and Manhattan only... then just ask Miller Samuel.

Their number... 20% down off peak, 75% decline in sales volume."

The Miller Samuel data actually shows a 12% decline off peak median sales price ($1.025m in Q2 to $900k currently). As for sales volume, it's a 26% drop. We will almost surely see higher percentage drops in the Q1 report, but worth noting (again) that this is wilfull misdirection.

Topper: about 10 months ago

The CS New York condo market really doesn't represent Manhattan. In addition to all the suburban counties included in the index, it's important to note that most of the Manhattan condo/coop market value today comes from coops and not condos.

Hopefully, Manhattan will eventually be broken out.

Topper: about 10 months ago

Yalie wanna cookie?

bjw2103: about 10 months ago

"You know, I just realized that we've come a long way.

Noone argues that the market will go up anymore. We also don't even have the "will it be 5% or 20%" arguments. Notice how the arguments are now "will it be down 20% or 40-50%".

Times have definitely changed.

I could cry."

Do you want a cookie?

Topper: about 10 months ago

Yes, the various sub-markets are probably fairly highly correlated. But from my own experience (I own in Fairfield, CT), most of these markets are lower beta markets than Manhattan. The percentage price increase in Manhattan during the 2000s has been substantially higher than what was experienced in the suburbs.

I would expect Manhattan to fall much harder than the suburbs during the bear market. Manhattan is hypersensitive to foreign buying and Wall Street.

liquidpaper: about 10 months ago

errr . . . i think 300 WEA is a pretty nice building . . . was nice enough for harry belafonte for a number of years and nice enough for abby disney (of the Disney disney's) to buy in, if not actually move into . . . not sure it ever was overpriced, just an indication of how things change . . . though I confess that every time I look at those floor plans I wish there was a way to expand and incorporate the kitchen into the flow of the apartment. i think if there were we'd be seriously looking at it, or at least asking everyone here what they thought it was worth . . .

juiceman, we've never had the pleasure before . . . is it grapefruit, or prune?

aj202: about 10 months ago

Doosh-man,

"Who gives a shit? That tells me very little about Manhattan which is all I really care about. How does a 40% decrease in Union, NJ condos translate to a 50% decrease in Manhattan?"

Union, NJ I can't speak to- but many of those other counties who have much higher transaction values and impact that series more meaningfully, are directly related to the NYC economy, so RE prices will correlate closely. If they correlate closely, then they'll MOVE TOGETHER...So if they move together, AND they have a large weighting in the index, then maybe the price information contained in the index is a good proxy of Manhattan condos? Not sure why this is hard to understand but I wanted to make it R-E-A-L-L-Y simple since your "time is money" theme clearly means you've got tons going on...like spending your day acting the ass on streeteasy.

Not sure why this is hard to understand. Your concept tha

JuiceMan: about 10 months ago

"i showed you an apartment that is 400% overvalued, and yes, i do consider that an important data point to consider when talking about an overall 50% decline in the market."

For someone so interested in valuation and math you have terrible logic skills. A data point is one thing, but stating that the entire Manhattan market is going down 50% based on condo's in Union NJ and an overpriced pile of shit at 74th and west end is a bit far reaching isn't it? This is what you call "substantiated claims"?

happyrenter: about 10 months ago

juiceman,

i didn't show you an apartment 50% and overvalued and say that it proved the market was 50% overvalued. first of all, to support a market decline of 50% the market would have to be 100% overvalued, so get your math right. i showed you an apartment that is 400% overvalued, and yes, i do consider that an important data point to consider when talking about an overall 50% decline in the market.

JuiceMan: about 10 months ago

"there is tons of data supporting a decline of fifty percent or more in manhattan real estate as you well know. take 300 west end. at the peak apartments sold for $6 million and rented for 20k per month. subtract out 4.5k in cc and you get 15.5/month. that gives you a CAP rate of 3%. So if rents decline 10% and the CAP rate doubles to a reasonable 6%, you have the apartment selling at $2.7 million. this is in a rock solid coop building on 74th and west end."

happyrenter, do you believe if you find a 50% overpriced apartment that the entire market will decrease by 50%? I can find an apartment that is only 10% overpriced, does that mean I can say the market will only decrease by 10%?

"Since you've demonstrated an ability to copy and paste, but not read, you should note the index is VALUE-weighted"

No, I read the areas of the source data and was laughing so hard, I forgot to read the rest.

"I'm sure glad Fairfield, Westchester, Bergen and others have NOTHING to do with Wall Street or NYC- try telling that to any resident trying to sell a house there..Ridiculous"

Huh? Where did I say these areas had nothing to do with Wall St? Please proof read your posts before posting. You don’t make any sense.

Boss77: about 10 months ago

Thanks NYC. Isn't the corresponding downturn in condos 20% also - given that perhaps the coop and condo prices are more intertwined than I thought.

nyc10022: about 10 months ago

"Like many posts on this forum, I think this report is a good indicator, but not the end all be all of the market given that 1) the report does not include coops, which are a significant part of the market and 2) the report includes non-manhattan areas."

If you want co-ops and Manhattan only... then just ask Miller Samuel.

Their number... 20% down off peak, 75% decline in sales volume.

mbz: about 10 months ago

Commercial real estate might already be -60%. I just got this from an investment bank (not Goldman):

"We were just chatting to a senior CRE broker that works at CB Richard Ellis. He said that UBS has 3 floors or 30k sq foot available...they were asking $100/sq ft in August now asking for $60/sq ft and any deal will likely get done in the $40/sq ft range. PFE has 600k sq ft. available as well. This sublease space is going to put pressure on primary office space."