Low End Prices NOT Holding Up

broadwayron: about 11 months ago

Wow... if a 900K apt is considered "low end", I don't know how I've survived in this city for 10 years. Now I'm thinking that I'M too low end (at least, for StreetEasy).
However, I will say that the "basement level" in which I'm interested hasn't seemed to drop near as much as the rest of the NYC supply. That's pretty much all I've looked at for the last 6 years, so I know that crap pretty well.

happyrenter: about 11 months ago

oh if thats the point then it is completely wrong. look at contracts signed, not price chops, to prove something like that.

Apt_Boy: about 11 months ago

The general point is that price declines are distributed rather equally across all price points in direct relation to their place in the market and that no one group, either high or low end is performing better or worse than any other

newaccount: about 11 months ago

You also need to consider the neighborhood. Washington Heights can't be compared to UWS to LES to Tribeca. SOme neighborhoods may hold up better than others.

julia: about 11 months ago

if stevejhx then I can move up to a one bedroom for $350??? I'm sticking with stevejhx and going to rent. There's too much confusion to buy.

nyc10022: about 11 months ago

> % declines in each Category of all Listings:
> $0-$1mm - 7.1%
> $1mm-$3mm - 5.3%
> $3mm+ - 4.4%

Better, thanks.

> I would consider "low-end" (what I look at) to be sub 400K.

In Manhattan? Thats not the low end, thats not the floor, thats the basement.

If the medians are over one million, requiring 30-40% of median as the cutoff for low end makes no sense...

Apt_Boy: about 11 months ago

NYCJ - what is your question???

nycjunior1: about 11 months ago

Can you please provide date for units >500K?

stevejhx: about 11 months ago

Anyone who thinks real estate prices are going to hold up is just deceiving himself. We are in for the biggest crash in the history of the city. Originally - a year ago - I said 50%. I wouldn't doubt 75% at this point, given the implosion of the banking sector, most especially the soon-to-be-defunct Citigroup.

patient09: about 11 months ago

AB...could be..but still issues..I think you need to look over a longer period..or compare many 7 day snapshots. Need to think stats for a minute???..Not even sure what the conclusions would tell us. I would venture to guess that 100% of apts that sell in the first 90 days of '09 will sell after a price reduction or at a discount to ask.

Apt_Boy: about 11 months ago

broadwayron...there are only 695 listings for no more than $400,000 in Manhattan or less than 10% of all listings in the $0 - $1mm range, so the category is not huge at all, your definition of 'low-end' is unrealistic

patient09 - 12,000 listings is a significant volume to draw a valid statistical conclusion...political polls call a few thousand people to judge the outcome of elections with tens of millions of voters and their variance for error is +/- 5%

The results are actually very accurate:

$0-$1mm - 53% of declines and 44% of all sales
$1mm-$3mm - 34% of declines and 38% of all sales
$3mm+ - 13% of all declines and 18 of all sales

happyrenter: about 11 months ago

i think his point is that it isn't holding up--not that it is doing as badly as the high end. i agree that his distributions are meaningless given that we don't know how many units are in each category. but he is at least showing that there are a significant number of cuts occurring sub 1 million, not the sign of a healthy market.

patient09: about 11 months ago

apt-boy..you still need more data to make your stats work..I always heard that the >3mm category constituted 10% of the number of units. If true, then that group is being disproportionately hit. You need to find the existing % of all housing stock in each of your 3 categories to draw any conclusions at all.

broadwayron: about 11 months ago

$0-$1mm is a HUGE category... I would consider "low-end" (what I look at) to be sub 400K.

Apt_Boy: about 11 months ago

Total for Sale:

$0-$1mm - 5,243 or 44%
$1mm-$3mm - 4,505 or 38%
$3mm+ - 2,085 or 18%

% declines in each Category of all Listings:

$0-$1mm - 7.1%
$1mm-$3mm - 5.3%
$3mm+ - 4.4%

nyc10022: about 11 months ago

interesting data, but...

1) doesn't say how many listings were in those groups (likely a lot more in the lower)
2) doesn't say the significance of the declines.... how big and off how inflated prices

We're already looking at price decline data... we're just not 100% sure what the makeup is.

Apt_Boy: about 11 months ago

Per SE, in the past 7 days, there were 699 price declines in Manhattan:

Distribution:

$0-$1mm - 370 or 53%
$1mm-$3mm - 237 or 34%
$3mm+ - 92 or 13%

So the arguement that the sub $1mm market is holding-up is not proven by the data