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*below 50 day moving average, not 200!
Oil below $50, 10 year below 2% Dow and s&p below their 50/200 day moving averages. That said I just wanted to say Happy New Year to all the SE folks for adding to the always interesting discussion on NYC real estate. It has certainly been a wild ride and quite entertaining at times!
The Burkhardt Group
And here comes the volatility.
Buy the dips or sell the rallies? I'm flat just watching...
I've been doing a little homework and speaking to who I've been able to speak to. Looking at a few areas nothing solid yet. Would you buy or lease? This would be a primary residence for 2-5 years most likely.
215 West 88th Street (Merrion Condo), low floor "G" units with sponsor renovations. 73.4% increase from the 2009 low, for a unit one floor closer to the street.
---------- Recorded Sales ----------|---------- Previous Listings ----------
09/09/2014 #3G $2,774,731 11.2% | . $2,495,000 3 beds 2 baths 1,676 SF
08/18/2009 #4G $1,600,000 -15.6% |↓ $1,895,000 3 beds 2 baths 1,676 SF
Correction: The Sellers' acquisition date for 90 RSD #11F was 2006, not 2005. The 2005 estate-sale buyers resold without renovating.
90 Riverside Drive #11F: Inward-facing classic six in a prime coop, with a pleasantly neutral renovation that hits all the key requirements without any frills. Resold 62.1% above 2005 estate-condition acquisition price and 16.2% above ask. Daunting price for a viewless RSD six. The low point for this line was the sale of #15F for $1.53MM in late 2008. That one needed renovation, but it also had significantly better light.
03/01/2005 Previous Sale recorded $1,800,000
02/23/2006 Previous Sale recorded $1,860,000
06/06/2014 Listed by Brown Harris Stevens $2,595,000
06/30/2014 Listing entered contract $2,595,000
09/10/2014 Sale recorded $3,015,000
41 West 82nd Street #1C: Modestly proportioned 3BR/2BA on the ground floor of a well-run 38-unit coop in the middle of a prime block. Renovated prior to 2012 sale, with a few subsequent cosmetic enhancements. Resold 38.6% above 2012 acquisition price, and 15.6% above ask. More evidence of tight supply in the $1.5-2.5MM range - especially units in move-in condition with sought-after school assignments.
10/07/2011 Previously Listed by Jan Asher, LREB $1,695,000
11/18/2011 Delisted by Jan Asher, LREB. Last priced at $1,445,000
12/01/2011 Previously Listed by Fenwick Keats Real Estate $1,445,000
05/07/2012 Fenwick Keats Real Estate Listing sold Last priced at $1,350,000
06/13/2012 Previous Sale recorded $1,334,926
05/16/2014 Listed by Douglas Elliman $1,600,000
06/04/2014 Listing entered contract
09/15/2014 Sale recorded $1,850,000
wow. crazy one on the 43w64 street w/ market up 69% from lows in 2009. Have you seen the new UD west81st?
Our time model that powers the new price your apartment tool (it provides suggested settings going back to may 2008 using our own index), has general market up 53% from mid 2009 to today. But these examples are always great to give us a sense of market action for diff areas/price points. etc..keep it up!!
cra, than's for your 2 valuable posts on Streeteasy since February, 2008.
If it doesn't sell it is likely to grow to 900 square feet
I have been looking at a magical apartment. From the floorplan (640) to the original listing (725) to the latest listing (740), the square footage grows like Pinocchio's nose.!
For what it's worth, I just had a bank appraisal come in at 45 sq ft (about 7%) more than the listing...Based on the above it doesn't really matter, but figured one "happy story" would be fitting (in light of the holiday season)
To use the mezzanine example, what happens if there's an official regulation that says spaces with less than 8' (or < 7'6") ceilings should not be counted toward square footage?
Let's suppose there's an 800 square foot unit where 200 square feet have high ceilings and 600 square feet have 7'5" ceilings. Can the unit owner, whose offering plans says 4 rooms, go back to the co-op and sue for share reallocation based on material breach because only one of the four rooms would meet this new legal criterion? I know share reallocation is tough, but it has been permitted in cases where an apartment was falsely described in the offering plan.
Can the co-op then sue the city for tax reduction because a certain portion of the square footage that's currently counted is now deemed to be "unofficial" square footage?
I see all kinds of problems with using too stringent criteria, especially with older, grandfathered buildings that do not meet current code.
Fairly certain, but maybe not. Too lazy to look it up, so easily can later say you weren't wrong because you didn't look, then its the other person's fault, not yours. Maybe, I guess, possibly not, depends.
"Do they include outliers? I thought they didn't, although that might be miller."
Once again, not sure.
Rhino and aboutready talking about price trends is like Cheney and Kristol talking about what we should do in Iraq...
"still, it's shocking how little most save and how much $ they waste on housing. puzzling behavior. "
Millions of people make their livings in New York City, but quite a few of those millions cannot afford to live anywhere in the city, and many more are just barely making it, "wasting" their money on housing without having anything left over to "save".
I suppose everyone in the middle class who makes their living here in New York City should consign themselves to three hour commutes, living in Reading, Pennsylvania, so they can avoid "wasting" money on expensive housing here in the city?
meant "households should be saving 10%-15% at least in average"
expert, no doubt. housing should be saving at about 10%-15% given how fast boomers are retiring. still, it's shocking how little most save and how much $ they waste on housing. puzzling behavior.
Really? I don't think that the Wall Street Journal is paying its reporters any more than they used to.
1. the Journal article concerned highly skilled workers
2. and new factories which will only employ hundreds of Americans
3. March 2013 to April 2014 worker earning did not rise at all
4 in recent years there has also been an explosion in both part-time
and low wage work, not to mention unemployed and in many
instances no longer employable law school and college grads
will more than offset any interest rate increase....cycle continues
I hope you are laughing because you bought them for $750k or less....otherwise, what does all of the info above basically tell you?
lol that would put my place in brooklyn heights at around $750k (2br/2bth@4k a month)
at $750k......I'd be buying 3 of them.
"(owning is much cheaper than renting)"
When you start with this as your PREMISE, then you argument is fundamentally worthless.. and the rest is useless.
"Renters get ZERO percent return"
The long term stats say buyers get zero return.
Renters get whatever return they put the money they save on a down payment and/or cheaper monthly payments.
I am looking to advertise an open house on here, but I am not sure of how to do so. If anyone knows how to can you please explain it to me? Thanks!
Thank you for your comments!
Agree w/ Ottawa. Apt facing an exposed subway (even several floors above) is going to be significantly noisier, 24x7, than an apartment overlooking a park (even if there's a busy street between your window and the park). This is probably on Ocean Ave, where the Q comes above ground. For me, the apt in the back over the subway would be a non-starter.
Not much info, but you are basically saying a negative view versus a very nice one. So big difference IMO. Maybe 25%
This blog post by Noah on Urban Digs is a good place to start:
I was looking at apartments around Prospect Park. I found a building where there were 2 apartments that have the exact same layout and square footage, but one faces the park and the other faces the subway, which is outdoors. A bit more:
Apt A: Faces subway, but on higher floor and has recently been renovated.
Apt B: Apt faces the park and is in move in condition, but needs about 15K-20K of work to match Apt A.
Based on this knowledge, what % difference that you think the apartments should cost?
1. the single family vulture home market does not materially
influence NYC prices because its business model is based
upon buying foreclosures in depressed but rising markets
2. the stock market's swoon might energize price escalation
in the near term because it will probably lead to capital
flight into real estate, and because it will encourage
some owners to refrain from selling theur apts because real
estate appears to be a stable and rising asset while stocks
appear risky and increasingly so
You guys assume there will still be significant price increases across all neighborhoods or more in the hot areas?
Weakening demand by financial companies that have been snapping up thousands of US homes on the cheap could fuel a future fall in house prices, the chief economist of Fannie Mae has warned
Also Fed has begun pulling back on Q.E. A Fed tightening could derail the sail winds of real estate. My guess is the market 12 months out is flat to down a little.
So we're projecting 2015 even though 2014 is barely under-way? Interesting.
Personally I think the real estate market , especially in Manhattan has gotten ahead of itself. If there's a surprise in store, I would think it would mean a pullback in prices. The market right now is totally driven by foreign money, at least in the new construction condo market.
Real Deal had an article recently about the real estate industry's heavy investment into tech.
Well, we know the sizzling RE market (in certain parts of the US, in particular) cannot keep shooting straight up. Moderation is indeed good and a "soft landing" for RE in 2015, 2016.
Also, Zillow states there is still a lot of money to be made right in USA, focusing on sales, rentals, and mortgages. Advertising and mobile use important to Zillow's current growth.
(NOW IF ONLY ZILLOW WILL NOT KILL THE ORIGINAL HIGH QUALITY STREETEASY FORMAT! My Words)
I wouldn't take financial advice from stevejhx unless you want to go broke.
To bad I didn't do the exact opposite of what he preached over the years for I'd be in the category of the super rich by now.
stevejhx? at least w67thstreet can't be proved wrong since he owned commercial property, residential property occupied by his mother, and then bought even more residential condo property.
Did you post this just to show how wrong Steve was all those years?
Any update from inonada?
inoitall, 300_mercer never replied to you - do you think that's because of all the money he's losing?
In their methodology paper, they clearly spell out that fit the index using ln(price_at_sale_2 / price_at_sale_1). You need to do this so that a 2x sale followed by a 0.5x sale of the same property returns you to a flat price end-to-end.
For outliers, this means that if the market went up 2x over some period, then a property with a 4x resale is just as much an outlier as one with a 1x resale.
Is that what they said? And how does it matter - prices naturally can't go below zero limiting the possibility of an extreme outlier to the downside.
Can prices even go near zero - will a foreclosure kick in first?
Just sit back and let Mayor de Blasio do the work for you...
An amusing article from the New Yorker on using the Broken Windows Theory to make New York apartments more affordable.
Liu-ser has a nerve!
Like a bad penny, John Liu won’t go away.
The comptroller is suing because the Campaign Finance Board denied him millions for his failed mayoral campaign. A report says he wants unspecified damages for “deprivation of civil rights, mental and emotional harm, loss of dignity, loss of earnings and professional reputation.”
Actually, taxpayers are the ones who suffered. They ought to sue Liu for being an expensive nuisance.
The campaign board rejected the Democrat’s bid for matching funds when a donor and an aide were indicted and later convicted in a scheme involving illegal donations. It cited a “pervasive” pattern of violations.
Voters didn’t think much of Liu either, giving him only 7 percent in the primary. Out of respect for their verdict, he ought to go quietly.
about 22 months ago
Member since: Oct 2009
ignore this person
yep, unfortunately he's back. i still say this place is upside down as he runs free and others still remain in purgatory. which is why........OCCUPY STREETEASY!!!!
about 22 months ago
Member since: Oct 2009
ignore this person
he is free to crap up these boards with his skewed view of the world and the shameless promotion of his failed business ventures.
Occupy Streeteasy indeed, rangersfan.
How have things gone in the 18 months since User_Usertofferson / petrfitz called for the end of the world?
Wow, there you go, finally something definitive out of your mouth.
I'm wrong but I'm right?
you said you didn't want to know. Now you do?
It helps the banks earn profits.
I guess the Fed's asset purchase program ($40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities and $45 billion of longer-term Treasury securities per month) will continue for a while. I have a lot of trouble believing that that program is actually helping economic growth and employment.
>Not a lot of substance in that critique, just ad hominem.
Minions! That's a good one ericho. Let's say it together! Minions!
Let's go Team RE!