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340 West 86th Street #3A: Pre-war five-room condo with lovely period details. Resold 23.5% above 2008 acquisition price. The 2008 contract was post-peak, pre-crash. Not much work done on the apartment during the intervening years. The building shows better than it did in 2008.
10/09/2003 Previous Sale recorded $967,500
04/11/2008 Listed by Douglas Elliman $1,895,000
05/04/2008 Price decreased by 5% ↓ $1,795,000
08/07/2008 Listing entered contract
09/25/2008 Sale recorded $1,700,000
09/12/2014 Listed by Corcoran $2,300,000
10/17/2014 Price decreased by 5% ↓ $2,195,000
02/03/2015 Listing entered contract
03/31/2015 Sale recorded $2,100,000
I'll play: 305 West 98th, #5DS, 1,200 sf Convert-3, 2-BA.
Purchased 12/2007 for $1.16M
Sold 3/2015 for $1.325M
Any new comps from West81 or others? UWS?
215 West 88th Street (Merrion Condo), low floor "G" units with sponsor renovations. 73.4% increase from the 2009 low, for a unit one floor closer to the street.
---------- Recorded Sales ----------|---------- Previous Listings ----------
09/09/2014 #3G $2,774,731 11.2% | . $2,495,000 3 beds 2 baths 1,676 SF
08/18/2009 #4G $1,600,000 -15.6% |↓ $1,895,000 3 beds 2 baths 1,676 SF
Correction: The Sellers' acquisition date for 90 RSD #11F was 2006, not 2005. The 2005 estate-sale buyers resold without renovating.
Agreed steveF. From what I've seen, for lower priced units the numbers can quickly head up and over 100 in areas where inventory is lowest
Used to be like 4 saved in 3 days.
Whoa Streeteasy jumping in. Front porch I agree with the all eyes on new listings comments especially for the smaller segments(studios/ 1 beds). You look at a new studio listings fairly priced and in 3 days 30 saved users. These are by far the highest numbers I've ever seen. Granted I'm only looking at Condos but I'm sure it's condops and coops as well.
Interesting discussion and great points by front_porch and urbandigs (per usual). In Manhattan we certainly see seasonality in recorded sales volume - late spring it picks up before relatively slower July-September only to inch up again in the fall. The strength of these peaks and valleys change by year, but the pattern is most certainly there.
Thanks again front_porch and urbandigs. Perhaps related to front_porch's point, fewer people willing to take the profit and move/buy outside the city? I wonder what it will take to change the equation.
And today paper talks about people who are getting past the statute of limitations and may get their home free and clear despite not making payments for 5 years.
W 81, I figured out the difference between our numbers. We both did same math, only difference is I have inflation in the period apartments drop by 20%. You assume that inflation only begins after the drop. The inflation didn't go away just because the apartment price went down. Given that actually took more like 2 years, maybe I should be adding two years of it.
That puts the breakeven at 15-16 years at 4%, 11-12 at 5%
But, I agree with you, it is not that big a difference, and the point is made either way.
emma63: Sorry I missed your question. I think somewhereelse explained the calculation pretty well. I should have explained the starting points (100 and 80 respectively) when I posted the numbers.
somewhereelse: I think you're comparing numbers from different years. I'm not sure, and again, it doesn't really matter. The takeaway message is the same either way.
Ah, no worries... those numbers are just the "index" of prices.
100% is the starting point. 80% is where housing prices are after a 20% decline.
We then took the 100% base and grew it at 2% to show what just inflation would do.
Then we took the 80% and grew it at 4-5% a year.
To see where it crossed, as the "break-even" point.
Thank you. I did understand that, I just wasn't sure what the specific numbers represented (100.00 102.00 104.04). Again, apologies if this is something everyone but me knows, just trying to learn.
This far into the bull market ... still bullish over the next 12 months?
tell us about your family.
Here's to you C0C0. You and your family.
that's not new either, is it?
do you have any new material?
No, unfortunately it seems to be occurring for many generations in your family.
Dollar is way up, maybe this changes the picture?
So you're suggesting that the Times RE people are stupid, rather than corrupt? Possible. Or it could be both.
With Eyn you don't really have corrupt as an option, so you're pretty much left with stupid.
Anyway, I don't know why Eyn is wasting his time helping Europeans buy in NY. He should be helping New Yorkers buy in Tokyo where their dollars are worth 82 times as much. I also hear that Harare is nice this time of year and the USD does crazy far in Zimbabwe.
> I don't know who's stupider: Mr. Eyn for saying it or the NYT for publishing it.
or the foreigner that feels the need for an address in manhattan and hence pays for our services: thank you snob!
NYT: For Europeans, with the euro trading at 1.34 to the dollar, “their money is worth 34 percent more now; it is a very safe bet for them,” Mr. Eyn said.
I don't know who's stupider: Mr. Eyn for saying it or the NYT for publishing it.
Any foreign buying weakness because of the Dollar's strength?
NYRENewbie, Manhattan real estate today is all about Orson Welles.
stevejhx, your posts are always "out of this world". Thanks for bringing a smile to my face. Wasn't Whitley Striber a New Yorker, way ahead of the curve in showing his apartment to aliens?
Yes, cliff, this will be Orson Welles' "Bidding Wars of the World" again.
You though it was scary over the radio!
I'm not sure about Martian buyers, but many brokers I've dealt showed signs of being from some other planet.
Not as expected.
What does it mean a building has a environmental restriction designation in nyc?
everything that cc2015 said is what I would strongly agree on before buying... But I just assumed those were all too obvious to mention.
If you have good financials and a stable job I would try to buy. Another thing to consider is family. If you have a family with children, there could be a VERY big difference in the school districts when buying vs renting.
If there is even a small possibility that your finances will change or you will have to move before 2 years I would reconsider. It can often take up to 6months to finalize a sale. If you can't afford 2ren'ts/ mortgages I would be very careful.
All things set aside prices will probably be higher in 2 yrs
Agree w/ jelj13. Try the NYT buy vs rent model. You enter in your purchase costs, time frame, tax rate, etc and it will tell you what comparable rent would make you agnostic. Lower rent, you rent. Higher rent, you buy.
If you can afford it... Buy it! for MANY MANY reasons which can't be described with words.
Have you looked at the "buy vs. lease" model on the NY Times Real Estate section? I found it helpful.
*below 50 day moving average, not 200!
Oil below $50, 10 year below 2% Dow and s&p below their 50/200 day moving averages. That said I just wanted to say Happy New Year to all the SE folks for adding to the always interesting discussion on NYC real estate. It has certainly been a wild ride and quite entertaining at times!
The Burkhardt Group
And here comes the volatility.
Buy the dips or sell the rallies? I'm flat just watching...
cra, than's for your 2 valuable posts on Streeteasy since February, 2008.
If it doesn't sell it is likely to grow to 900 square feet
I have been looking at a magical apartment. From the floorplan (640) to the original listing (725) to the latest listing (740), the square footage grows like Pinocchio's nose.!
For what it's worth, I just had a bank appraisal come in at 45 sq ft (about 7%) more than the listing...Based on the above it doesn't really matter, but figured one "happy story" would be fitting (in light of the holiday season)
To use the mezzanine example, what happens if there's an official regulation that says spaces with less than 8' (or < 7'6") ceilings should not be counted toward square footage?
Let's suppose there's an 800 square foot unit where 200 square feet have high ceilings and 600 square feet have 7'5" ceilings. Can the unit owner, whose offering plans says 4 rooms, go back to the co-op and sue for share reallocation based on material breach because only one of the four rooms would meet this new legal criterion? I know share reallocation is tough, but it has been permitted in cases where an apartment was falsely described in the offering plan.
Can the co-op then sue the city for tax reduction because a certain portion of the square footage that's currently counted is now deemed to be "unofficial" square footage?
I see all kinds of problems with using too stringent criteria, especially with older, grandfathered buildings that do not meet current code.
Fairly certain, but maybe not. Too lazy to look it up, so easily can later say you weren't wrong because you didn't look, then its the other person's fault, not yours. Maybe, I guess, possibly not, depends.
"Do they include outliers? I thought they didn't, although that might be miller."
Once again, not sure.
Rhino and aboutready talking about price trends is like Cheney and Kristol talking about what we should do in Iraq...
"still, it's shocking how little most save and how much $ they waste on housing. puzzling behavior. "
Millions of people make their livings in New York City, but quite a few of those millions cannot afford to live anywhere in the city, and many more are just barely making it, "wasting" their money on housing without having anything left over to "save".
I suppose everyone in the middle class who makes their living here in New York City should consign themselves to three hour commutes, living in Reading, Pennsylvania, so they can avoid "wasting" money on expensive housing here in the city?
meant "households should be saving 10%-15% at least in average"
expert, no doubt. housing should be saving at about 10%-15% given how fast boomers are retiring. still, it's shocking how little most save and how much $ they waste on housing. puzzling behavior.
Really? I don't think that the Wall Street Journal is paying its reporters any more than they used to.
1. the Journal article concerned highly skilled workers
2. and new factories which will only employ hundreds of Americans
3. March 2013 to April 2014 worker earning did not rise at all
4 in recent years there has also been an explosion in both part-time
and low wage work, not to mention unemployed and in many
instances no longer employable law school and college grads
will more than offset any interest rate increase....cycle continues
I hope you are laughing because you bought them for $750k or less....otherwise, what does all of the info above basically tell you?
lol that would put my place in brooklyn heights at around $750k (2br/2bth@4k a month)
at $750k......I'd be buying 3 of them.
"(owning is much cheaper than renting)"
When you start with this as your PREMISE, then you argument is fundamentally worthless.. and the rest is useless.
"Renters get ZERO percent return"
The long term stats say buyers get zero return.
Renters get whatever return they put the money they save on a down payment and/or cheaper monthly payments.
I am looking to advertise an open house on here, but I am not sure of how to do so. If anyone knows how to can you please explain it to me? Thanks!
Thank you for your comments!
Agree w/ Ottawa. Apt facing an exposed subway (even several floors above) is going to be significantly noisier, 24x7, than an apartment overlooking a park (even if there's a busy street between your window and the park). This is probably on Ocean Ave, where the Q comes above ground. For me, the apt in the back over the subway would be a non-starter.
Not much info, but you are basically saying a negative view versus a very nice one. So big difference IMO. Maybe 25%
This blog post by Noah on Urban Digs is a good place to start:
I was looking at apartments around Prospect Park. I found a building where there were 2 apartments that have the exact same layout and square footage, but one faces the park and the other faces the subway, which is outdoors. A bit more:
Apt A: Faces subway, but on higher floor and has recently been renovated.
Apt B: Apt faces the park and is in move in condition, but needs about 15K-20K of work to match Apt A.
Based on this knowledge, what % difference that you think the apartments should cost?
1. the single family vulture home market does not materially
influence NYC prices because its business model is based
upon buying foreclosures in depressed but rising markets
2. the stock market's swoon might energize price escalation
in the near term because it will probably lead to capital
flight into real estate, and because it will encourage
some owners to refrain from selling theur apts because real
estate appears to be a stable and rising asset while stocks
appear risky and increasingly so
You guys assume there will still be significant price increases across all neighborhoods or more in the hot areas?
Weakening demand by financial companies that have been snapping up thousands of US homes on the cheap could fuel a future fall in house prices, the chief economist of Fannie Mae has warned
Also Fed has begun pulling back on Q.E. A Fed tightening could derail the sail winds of real estate. My guess is the market 12 months out is flat to down a little.
So we're projecting 2015 even though 2014 is barely under-way? Interesting.
Personally I think the real estate market , especially in Manhattan has gotten ahead of itself. If there's a surprise in store, I would think it would mean a pullback in prices. The market right now is totally driven by foreign money, at least in the new construction condo market.