New York City
Northern New Jersey
Open House Planner
Shop for a Broker
Condo Price Index
nycre18, do you really think potential buyers are going to do a conforming loan that's sold off to fnma when these are 2 and 3 bedrooms above 1.5 M? These are going to be jumbo loans above $ 729k, which lenders bank themselves. They don't need to meet fnma requirements. Are you a mortgage broker? If not, you probably should not speak about things of which you are not an expert. REFAN: any new development takes years to sell off. The Seville also took years to sell off when it first went live in 2003.
It also has many more units than 32!
What's with 5B and 10B being off the market?
Meant 6B, 10B and 15B.....what's up with this?
Based on having watched the evolution of a lot of listings on SE over the years, "Listing is no longer available" could mean a number of things:
Sometimes it means that the listing has been taken off the market. In the context of new development, where the owner deciding that they aren't going to sell after all and are just going to live there for a while longer is not an option, it can mean that the unit is being temporarily delisted, to return with a new (e.g., lower) price at some later date. I doubt that this is the case here, as this more often explains units being taken down en masse rather than in ones and twos. See the many previous listings at the Azure for an example of mass delistings in a new development.
Sometimes it means that the unit is in contract. Yes, I know that "Listing in contract" is an option for the developer/broker when they update their listings, but I'm just saying that I have seen many cases of apartments going from listed to no longer available to a closing, without ever having 'In Contract" in their SE history. It's a matter of how timely and thorough the developer/broker is in keeping their listings current. 10B and 15B could be examples of this - we'll only know if/when a closing appears in the coming weeks or months.
Sometimes it means that the unit has closed. Again, the developer/broker could just list the unit as closed once closing has taken place, but often it seems that they mark it as no longer available instead. Same housekeeping issue as above. I have found that progression in SE status from listed to "Listing entered contract" to "Listing is no longer available" has been a fairly reliable leading indicator of a closing, although again you don't know for sure until a deed is actually filed in ACRIS and the closing gets picked up by SE. 6B fits this pattern. The lag between the contract date and no longer available date of 7 weeks seems on the short side, although plausible, for completing a closing. Again, we won't really know until either the unit comes back on the market or a closing is recorded.
Thanks. Very odd.
Thanks for the advice on what to comment about live4. In keeping with that tradition please explain your comment that once they begin closings it is easier to get a loan. That is hogwash, and according to your fnma expertise, would be irrelevant. This developer has been offering their own financing for a year and look at the record. If you don't work for the developer, you should be on their pr team. Oh and I think manhattan house has openings as well.
"nycre18, do you really think potential buyers are going to do a conforming loan that's sold off to fnma when these are 2 and 3 bedrooms above 1.5 M? These are going to be jumbo loans above $ 729k, which lenders bank themselves"
The reality in new condo sales is much more complicated than this. You see everything from buyers paying all cash, to loans of exactly $417k to $729k that are obviously sized around FMNA eligibility (including sometimes for large apartments where the conforming loan is a small % of purchase price) to jumbo mortgages with the kind of 80/20 or 70/30 (loan/down payment) financing structure that might be thought of as "normal" to jumbos with higher than 20-30% down payments. The preferences and finances of today's buy-to-live audience are more varied than those of the spec buyer of yesteryear who could be relied on to take the last dollar of jumbo mortgage that a bank would lend.
yes thanks sideline. as someone still looking for an apartment, I know that the financing components are THE major issue facing a buyer. but I'm also forever thinking about resale value. most of these new projects, especially ones like this one, that for whatever reason sit empty for months on end, just logically cannot compete with an established condo project. too damn risky. there has got to be something wrong with this development. even people who claim the 2nd Ave subway is a deterrent haven't taken Georgica into account, which sits in front of a blasting zone and drill base and yet that still has a stellar sales record compared to this one. something is wrong.
I have a different perspective on the lack of sales at the Isis than that expressed by some others here.
While sales notionally started in the spring of 2008, the real estate environment was already going soft by that point. The "credit crunch" started the previous summer, the national mortgage market meltdown was well under way and right around the time the Isis hit the market we had the first big blow-up of a NY based Wall Street employer, Bear Stearns. This is all by way of saying that the game of selling new condos off of floor plans, taking deposits and delivering the product 2-3 years later was pretty much over at that point, so I would not have expected Isis to sell much of anything until they got much closer to completion (i.e., right about now). As to sitting empty for months on end, a new building looks complete from the outside months before it is habitable, so I would not jump to conclusions. The Georgica, which I can see out of my apartment window, was the same way and as nycre18 points out it seems to have sold just fine (much to my surprise, to be frank).
So did the Isis sell slower than the Brompton, Rushmore or Lucida, all of which had many contracts signed before the downturn? Sure, but other buildings all launched into a very different market 1-2 years earlier and are not good comparisons by which to measure the Isis. I doubt that the Isis developer was really trying that hard to sell for most of the time between mid-2008 and very recently. Why push the issue in, for example, the spring of 2009 when the market is a disaster and you're still 18 months from delivering a building? The only way to get a contract signed in that situation is to cave big time on price. That may be where they end up anyway - time will tell - but I really doubt that they will be worse off for having waited until they can sell a completed, immediate occupancy product instead of a promise.
I say let's see how this progresses in the next couple of months, now that they are claiming more signed contracts and the building seems done or close to it. It may be poorly located and late to market (as some believe) or fundamentally flawed in some other respect, but frankly that just puts the Isis in the same position that the Georgica seemed to be in 9-12 months ago and that one is turning out fine.
sidelinesitter: you have by far, the clearest and most correct disposition on this thread and I thank you for leaving the sidelines to enter the fray. To add additional input: most new devs closed their sales centers in Spring 2009 because the market had entered such a state of paralysis and no deals were being done. Now, with volume up 70% y-o-y, developers are much more "in it to win it" mentality. Why do you think 123 Third Ave (downtown, different market, but still) launched sales just this week? Isis was largely off the market for the past 2 years, it is only now that they have a finished project with TCO and apts that you can see and buy. It will end exactly as the other developments have ended- sold. It's just a matter of time and how buyer's interpret Wall's Street's wild volatility and perceived lack of direction (which seems to not have as much influence on NYC's RE market as others on this thread would like).
OK, I don't know where you get your information from LIVE4NYCRE, but hello.....Isis has had open houses on every Wednesday AND Sundays for the past year, according to their own website. They were, until a few weeks ago, also offering "Incentives for the next buyers." You call that being "largely off the market"? Are you kidding? And you still have not explained your assertion that once they start closing, its "easier" to get loans. That is simply not true, under your FNMA analysis above. I know you are (apparently) repping a buyer here but lets get real; this is one of the weakest sales records in Manhattan and nobody really knows why.
What does "open house" mean when the building wasn't actually built for most of that year? If it means you open the sales office on Wednesdays and Sundays and staff it with a couple of 20-somethings who don't know anything about real estate but look good in a short skirt then that is hardly a serious sales effort. Anyway, we're all wasting our breath (or rather keypads) here because we're going to know a lot more through this fall about how many they can actually close and at what price.
Has anyone else taken a HUGE risk and sign a Contract at this struggling project?
There is no evidence that this project is struggling. Similarly, there is no evidence that it is doing well. Once closings start, we can see price relative to ask and to similar product (e.g., Georgica) and see pace of closings and then we will have evidence. If they're closing one per month at 20+% discounts to ask, it will be struggling. Three or four per month at 10% discounts from ask they will be doing well. In between is a debate, although I know we can put REFAN in the 'it's a disaster' column regardless of what the actual facts turn out to be.
As an update- we learned that their 5th signed contract came in yesterday (6A) so they now have 15% sold, and now need the AG to sign off on the Offering Plan. We are told they have 6 other contracts out as well (including ours), which if all came back signed (might not), it would bring total sold up to 30%. It looks like sales are picking up nicely alongside the fall selling season (Spring and Fall are the season with most activity)
These are pretty amusing comments but if you were actually looking for an apartment to buy with quality finishes you would know that there is not much available. The Brompton, Lucida, Isis, Laurel etc. are all pretty nice. I have found that the more amenities there are the more expensive the price and, sometimes, carry costs. I am more interested in location, finishes, price and quality of developer but not necessarily in that order. All four of those buildings are very nice but different. The nicest of the lot is the Laurel as it has tons of well done amenities but there is no bargain as it is pretty well sold out. The best deal with the least amenities is the Isis condo which has the lowest sell-out as it was recently TCO. I have not decided but if money is no object you cannot go wrong with any of them. I have to wait for my bonus.
live4nycre is on the payroll with developer.
for sure! Cannot compare Isis to Lucida or Brompton; amenities, finishes in B or L are much nicer and priced much higher but in a different league..
I've already noted that I represent a buyer in negotiations in the bldg. Are you illiterate? Amenities are nice but no one ever uses them. The isis is a much better location than all of them except for the Lucida, which is all sold out except for 2 sky high priced units. Do you really think the Laurel is better all the way over at 67th and 1st ave? In any case, these are all pretty much sold off as LOOKING4CONDO noted, except for the isis, which will begin selling quickly now that the Offering Plan will be declared effective and private banks will begin lending.
Actually I just shopped (again) all the new condos and I can tell you they are all reasonably comparable in terms of finishes. The differences are amenities and, therefore, price. To each his own but you do pay for all the extra goodies. I have narrowed it down to Georgica and Isis. The Isis developer cut prices since my last visit. The Georgica is nice also and more sold out. And it has more amenities that contribute to the pricing no doubt. The analysis is not so easy as the locations are all a bit different. All the developers seem pretty established particularly for Brompton, Isis, Lucida and Laurel. The frustration is that there is not much new product left on the market. That said, my wife changes her mind every day so maybe prices will drop if I wait but I doubt it.Isis is apparently doing alot better on sales as the unit I was considering is under contract. My broker confirmed that they have many new deals now although they are not yet as sold out as the other new buildings. If they get all their contracts back they will be almost 40% according to her. I seriously thinking about jumping in althought I wish I was earlier in the process. Aarrgh! I guess I should not have relied on REFAN's negative but funny comments as they are obsolete. We shall see how we do.
2nd Avenue and 77th Street, 2nd Avenue and 85th Street, 3rd Avenue and 85th Street, Lexington Avenue and 85th Street are all marginal areas where developers put lip stick on a pig and called their projects amenities rich. You still have to go out your front door.
If the Upper East Side is considered "marginal" except for Madison, Fifth and Park, then that is great but a fairly elitist point of view.
theres nothing marginal about all the townhouses between 1st ave and east end in the 80's
Classical misuse of their developer mission. The developers went for sites with arrangements that the UES will have to live with for a very long time. Look back at properties that were built in the last boom and bust and you'll see those properties suffering.
having spent too large a percentage of my adult life on the UES, it is tru that the developers have generally put up uninteresting buildings at best. There have been a few nice ones over the years but not that many. The newest ones on the UES for the most part at least fit in.
Two come to mind in the last boom and bust. The Monarch 200 East 89th and Hampton House 404 East 79th. Both have aged beyond their years and they show it. The RE prices just don't hold up very well over the long haul. You wonder if Georgica, Isis, Lucida and Brompton will be in that class.
According to everything I have read, the Isis, Lucida and Brompton have long established developers which should count for something. I have no idea who developed the Monarch and Hampton House but they are indicative of the older "new" developments as being really ugly.
Many outlandish comments have been made on this website by five "people". Just to set the record straight, now that we have the TCO, sales are moving right along as we have another 8 contracts out. Just like our 20 + residential buildings that we have completed and sold out over the last 20 years or more (in all types of markets), we will sell out the Isis Condominium as well.
We find it very curious that the names "REFAN", "NYCRE18", "REEALESTATEGUY5170", "FALCOGOLD1" and "KEITHW" were only set up to bash the ISIS and promote a rival development on the Upper East Side so it appears.
If you don't believe us, Google the names and Streeteasy.
Alchemy Properties values its clients, buildings, and reputation and does not have to build itself up by tearing down the work of others. Yes it is true: not all developers are equal. If you are truly a buyer in this market, do your homework on the developer! It is much more important than the amenity package and should be almost important as the location.
Alchemy Properties Inc.
Dear Alchemy Properties Inc.,
"Alchemy Properties .... does not have to build itself up by tearing down the work of others." How ironic: seems to me that's exactly what you did.
I appreciate your desire to "set the record straight". However, IMO, your post is unprofessional, rude, arrogant & reeks of desperation. Not a good method for selling apts or promoting your company.
Thanks for the feedback. The act of calling out outrageous and false claims that are meant to damage is in no way equivalent to the continual making of such digraceful comments. We are neither unprofessional, rude, arrogant or desperate. We are simply angry about the way our project was portrayed by people who appear to be self-interested and were way too obvious and incredibly nasty about it. Read the posts in this conversation and the other one for ISIS if you have not and put yourself in our position. Our comment - on our own buiding's Streeteasy page - was the tepid compared to the comments made. Track the names thru the website and a disturbing pattern emerges...
TYPOS REMOVED (SORRY):
Thanks for the feedback. The act of calling out outrageous and false claims that are meant to damage is in no way equivalent to the continual making of such digraceful comments. We are neither unprofessional, rude, arrogant or desperate. We are simply angry about the way our project was portrayed by people who appear to be self-interested and were way too obvious and incredibly nasty about it. Read the posts in this conversation and the other one for ISIS if you have not and put yourself in our position. Our comment - on our own building's Streeteasy page - was tepid compared to the comments made. Track the names thru the website and a disturbing pattern emerges...
To Alchemy properties:
all i did was give my opinion on why i like the georgica better and why i chose to buy there. i did not disparage your project at all. i am not affiliated with anyone. just a buyer expressing his views on a forum that is built for buyers and sellers to do so. here is what i said and i believe to be true: "much better off at georgica...higher ceilings, better views, better layouts, 1 or 2 away from 50% sold, good RELATIVE value, better amenaties..."
what here is outrageous or false?
keithw - we are not going to comment on the postings. Congratulations on your purchase - the Georgica is a good looking building. Rob Kaliner is a nice guy and he built a very attractive building on West 22nd across from one of our buildings (the Chelsea Paradigm) that we finished in 2004. In fact, a very good friend of one of the Alchemy partners actually bought a unit a few months ago in Rob's 22nd Street building after we gave Rob and his building positive feedback. Best of luck to you.
You don't get it. Your objective is to create good will for your project & sell million dollar apts, but, to me, you sound like a spoiled kid on facebook. I would never do business with you.
dwell - thanks.
Alchemy, what is the reasoning behind the Oct 13th price changes? Increase the 2 bdrms and decrease the 3 or 4 bdrm units. Or is it more finite as to the unit line?
We reduced pricing substantially on floors 2 - 9 in order to achieve Offering Plan effectiveness which we succeeded in doing. We went back to the pricing prior to that price cut and then took an across the board reduction on all floors. We believe our overall pricing is now very competitive and will consider all reasonable offers as we continue to have some flexibility on pricing on a case by case basis. Further, we have a number of lenders for end loans.
Thanks for your inquiry.
AP, thanks for the reply. I was trying to understand if you see something in the market concerning multi bedroom apartments. Given this economy, are you seeing some slippage in 3 and 4 bedrm? Are 2 bdrms improving because of 1 bdrm units slipping? Or is it from the 3's slipping to the 2's.
Our experience is that demand is steady to growing somewhat in the 2 - 4 bedroom apartment market on the Upper East Side perhaps due to absorption of new inventory over the last 6 months as buildings have completed construction.
While there seems to be some recent press about slippage in the pace of sales of studios and one bedrooms, such slippage is minimal as far as we can tell in our West Side projects. Assuming one's locations are desirable and the finishes are on par with the market, the issue in this market is purely pricing as buyers are looking for value. That is consistent across the board for all unit sizes and is the reason why we have reduced prices recently.
When will closings start? TCO and plan is effective?
The Isis Condominium is declared effective and closings are starting this month! Since the building was completed there has been a tremendous increase in activity and we hope to be 30% - 35% sold by Thanksgiving.
Isis reported in the NYT Real Estate for its use of air rights. Definitely, the poster child for what can go wrong when you put a size 12 in a size 8 dress. See the NYT picture.
The real estate gods did not shine on this child and the prices it received and still marketed reflect so. Oh, you can say it was a tough market, blah, blah... But lets face ISIS has issues.
Does any of what you say matter to the people who live there?