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Quarterly sales data Q2
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Any predictions?

Manhattan Coop and Condo totals

avg $ per sq ft---and total closings

1stQ '08 $1289---2282
2ndQ '08 $1263---3081
3rdQ '08 $1193---2654
4thQ '08 $1183---2282

1stQ '09 $1259---1195
2ndQ '09 $1056---1532
3rdQ '09 $ 996---2230
4thQ '09 $1051---2473

1stQ '10 $1038---2384
2ndQ '10 ???-----????

I suspect the web address of the report will be;
http://www.millersamuel.com/reports/pdf-reports/MMO2Q10.pdf
when available

1091 --- 2510 or so is my guess

From where I'm standing April and May were really hot, and June's been dead, which makes it hard to think about the quarter. I'll go with avg. ppsf up slightly, a miminal uptick from 2Q '09, with volume dropping from 1Q 2010 by some single-digit factor.

ali r.
DG Neary Realty

Just realized I didn't put mine.....

$1030 --- 2250

Ali
Just remember, don't mistake a hot "in contracts" with hot "closings."

THough I found closings hot as well, particularly with new developments that came down to earth.

I'm trying not to. You know if I had a crystal ball I'd be on a yacht and not hanging with you guys.

ali

Ha..chicken or egg....those on a yacht wrote the crystal ball....ie George Soros. :)

actuals: $1,051 - 2,756.

That puts me close on price and way off on volume (which we all undershot, but digs got closest)!

ali

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Lately the bull position has basically boiled down to, "The market stopped going down and maybe it's up a bit in places." Meanwhile, the bear position is stuck on, "Everything is f'ed and prices are going to collapse tomorrow/next week/next month/next quarter/next year."

So basically we have somewhereelse and w67...

"> Wow! Up $13psf! So exciting I gotta take a nap.

and down YoY."

....confirming that the bulls are pretty much right. You don't see that every day.

Yeah, I'm surprised by the resilience of the 3br+ market up here. Some "deals" were closed beg. of the year (last summer's contracts). Who knows. I've taken to musing about owning a portable canoe, so we can paddle our way north on the Hudson should everything collapse :)

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"Lately the bull position has basically boiled down to, "The market stopped going down and maybe it's up a bit in places."

Well, I wouldn't exactly call that bullish, but I suppose it's all relative.

"Thats a complete strawman."

No, it really isn't. Do you even read the posts? Not every "bear" says these things, but there's enough of it going on. I do enjoy that you're constantly chirping about who "won" or whatever. Here's your prize:
http://blogs.phoenixnewtimes.com/bastard/2010/06/bill_maher_awards_arizona_stup.php

I was off by less than 2% on the price price sq ft.
Volume is/was surprising though the 2nd quarter appears to be the most volatile the last 2 years off a normal and average 2200 per quarter. 2008 with 3081 closings and 2009 with 1532!

THis report doesn't make much of a bull or a bear case, it rather represents status quo for the most part.
While some will see the higher than normal sales volume or the misleading YOY change as a great sign, others will see it as a pause at best.
If any one looked closer at the report, they saw slightly rising coop prices, but slightly lowering condo prices.
It appears NYC real estate is clinging to the $1000 per sq ft watermark somewhat like 10K for the Dow Jones crowd.
It is a strong psycholgical dam that will be interesting to see if little dutch boy's got the stamina.

For me, even forgeting about unemployment and rent roll(s) for a moment, a futuristic rising mortgage rate is the greatest danger to prices, which will at the very least cause a double dip in housing, should housing rebound sooner than later.
JMHO.

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Indeed, one unit.
We are talking about averages.
For NYC to average $700 per square foot will mean a good chunk would have to sell for $500 while others at $900...n'est pas?

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Manhattan Coop and Condo totals

avg $ per sq ft---and total closings

1stQ '08 $1289---2282
2ndQ '08 $1263---3081
3rdQ '08 $1193---2654
4thQ '08 $1183---2282

1stQ '09 $1259---1195
2ndQ '09 $1056---1532
3rdQ '09 $ 996---2230
4thQ '09 $1051---2473

1stQ '10 $1038---2384
2ndQ '10 $1051---2756
3rdQ '10 $1095---2661
4thQ '10 $1058---2295

1stQ '11 $1025---2394
2ndQ '11 $1068---2650
3rdQ '11 $1130---3106
4thQ '11 $1117---2011

1stQ '12 $

Thought I should update the list and up this thread as 1st Q 2012 draws to a close soon.

Comment removed.

2 additional quarters to update

Miller Samuels Manhattan Coop and Condo totals

avg $ per sq ft---and total closings

1stQ '08 $1289---2282
2ndQ '08 $1263---3081
3rdQ '08 $1193---2654
4thQ '08 $1183---2282

1stQ '09 $1259---1195
2ndQ '09 $1056---1532
3rdQ '09 $ 996---2230
4thQ '09 $1051---2473

1stQ '10 $1038---2384
2ndQ '10 $1051---2756
3rdQ '10 $1095---2661
4thQ '10 $1058---2295

1stQ '11 $1025---2394
2ndQ '11 $1068---2650
3rdQ '11 $1130---3106
4thQ '11 $1117---2011

1stQ '12 $1086---2311
2ndQ '12 $1065---2647

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Flat is the word. "Stable" if your the rosey type.

And when you consider all the rumblings about low inventory, this confirms to me inventory is being somewhat widely manipulated to try to spur a consensus of a turning tide.
Just more tail wagging dog.

but based on appraisals, values are up 42%in 2 years..

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i'll tell you how dumboy will interpret this - prices are stable, but i paid off some mortgage hence i made money, hence this was a great investment. forget inflation, forget cost of capital.

3rd Q 2012 update

Miller Samuels Manhattan Coop and Condo totals

avg $ per sq ft---and total closings

1stQ '08 $1289---2282
2ndQ '08 $1263---3081
3rdQ '08 $1193---2654
4thQ '08 $1183---2282

1stQ '09 $1259---1195
2ndQ '09 $1056---1532
3rdQ '09 $ 996---2230
4thQ '09 $1051---2473

1stQ '10 $1038---2384
2ndQ '10 $1051---2756
3rdQ '10 $1095---2661
4thQ '10 $1058---2295

1stQ '11 $1025---2394
2ndQ '11 $1068---2650
3rdQ '11 $1130---3106
4thQ '11 $1117---2011

1stQ '12 $1086---2311
2ndQ '12 $1065---2647
3rdQ '12 $1103---2952

http://www.elliman.com/pdf/c56477d9940a69ea6110531339340f32df3ff057

coops $969 per sq ft last quarter $964
condos $1293 per sq ft last quarter $1201

I think foreign money is definitely feeding this condo subbubble.
Who will be the next wave...the french with their 75% tax bracket?

And Jmiller if you still glance these boards, Im curious how you distinguish what is likely designated a loft for your figures.

Does a unit like this one end up strictly as a loft sale? a coop sale? or in both figures?
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/678941-coop-114-west-27th-street-chelsea-new-york

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SWE
I dont get it, $1065 to $1103 is a 3.5% raise.

THe Elliman report is the Miller/Sam report.

Does anyone think a $1293 per sq ft average for condos sustainable?
That's a 25% difference between coops and condos right now.

truth - I think what SWE is pointing out is that in 2012 both 2nd and 3rd quarter averages are below their prior YOY quaterly #'s.

This should help explain why

http://urbandigs.com/chart.php?k=97612288dd28e18f735a60e975865ef5

Manhattan Pending Sales (red line)
Manhattan Pending Sales $5M market (blue line)

Check out the # of $5M deals signed into contract between April-Aug 2011. The high end (5m ) made a bigger, more sustained move last year than it did this year while overall Manhattan pending made a broader move this year. So your avg price trend in Q3/Q4 2011 will reflect that high end activity from mid 2011 and on a yoy basis be tough to beat. Median trends should better reflect broader price action trend from 2011. It differs firm to firm, corcoran shows flat compared to q3_2012, halstead shows 2% in median compared to q3_2012, elliman shows -2.3% compared to q3_2012.

Also keep in mind 700-1,000 q3 sales will file in over the next 2 months or so and populate the Q4 report. Just to point out that Q3 report is probably reflecting market action from March-May or so w/ the acris lag

The luxury market bracket represents the top 10% sales, the $5 mil + crowd.
The reports for the luxury market's numbers show it all to be pretty even and not that great a difference;
http://www.millersamuel.com/reports/pdf-reports/DEmanhattansales3Q11.pdf

luxury market Q3 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2012 Q2 2012

avg sale price $5,442,521 $5,776,825 $5,364,358 $5,726,086
avg price per sq ft $2074 $1968 $2021 $2113
# of sales 311 265 295 265

sorry my spacing didnt post well

4th Q 2012 update

Miller Samuels Manhattan Coop and Condo totals

avg $ per sq ft---and total closings

1stQ '08 $1289---2282
2ndQ '08 $1263---3081
3rdQ '08 $1193---2654
4thQ '08 $1183---2282

1stQ '09 $1259---1195
2ndQ '09 $1056---1532
3rdQ '09 $ 996---2230
4thQ '09 $1051---2473

1stQ '10 $1038---2384
2ndQ '10 $1051---2756
3rdQ '10 $1095---2661
4thQ '10 $1058---2295

1stQ '11 $1025---2394
2ndQ '11 $1068---2650
3rdQ '11 $1130---3106
4thQ '11 $1117---2011

1stQ '12 $1086---2311
2ndQ '12 $1065---2647
3rdQ '12 $1103---2952
4thQ '12 $1084---2598

4th quarter volume spike up 29% may have been partly driven by sellers' attempt to lock in their tax rates (I haven't yet read the report so don't shoot me if it says that exact thing) but I would say it might even be underreported given how busy the lawyers seem to have been.

Any attys on want to comment?

ali r.
DG Neary Realty

Also, average ppsf for co-ops UP 0.3% y-o-y,

average ppsf for condos UP 0.5% y-o-y,

but overall ppsf DOWN 3.0% y-o-y?

That's a little crazy ... I assume it's distortion from townhouse sales, but it's an odd effect...

Ali, I don't know about that 29%, I think the robust 3rd Q of 2011 probably kept the 4th Q from remaining around 2200 sales, a seeming rough average for 4th quarters.
The 2011 (qty not year) from last year is below the seeming 2200 average, making it a more apropos 15% difference.

And for sure,I'd say the spike is mostly driven by the coming tax rate hike.

"but overall ppsf DOWN 3.0% y-o-y?"

Number of coop sales went from ~1000 to ~1500 while condo sales remained flat at ~1000. So larger number of lower-priced coops sales brought down the overall average.

Yeah Nada,that's because there is currently a 30% difference between the 2 in price.
I dont see how that can sustain.

condos are now $1300 p sq ft co-op @ $930

ON YOY, I tend to pay much less attention to YOY than I do quarter to quarter,probably too much so, but that's just me.

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