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DJIA to fall 4,000 points in 2012, Granville says
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didnt we have this predic back in.. '08...oh my shorts are burning

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/fortune/0812/gallery.market_gurus.fortune/

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John Hussman has us down 25% potentially in the next year. CBO is projecting 1% growth in 2013. Granville sounds too bearish for me, but I would not overly-discount the possibility of a 25-40% drop.

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This idiot Granville has been saying the same thing for 10 years running. When will people realize he has serious mental issues? And when it's at 4000, he will then call for 2000. A true idiot.

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LOL! That's a correlation/causation error if I've ever seen one.

http://pactiss.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/dilbert-correlation.gif

If you're tempted to pay any attention tto these people, it pays to have background:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Granville

Thought the post was about Jeremy Granville, then realized the mistake.

"The Granville Market Letter "is at the bottom of the Hulbert Financial Digest's rankings for performance over the past 25 years - having produced average losses of more than 20 percent per year on an annualized basis." [3]
Nevertheless Granville was known as a great showman [4] who would emerge from a coffin at an investment conference, or appear to walk across water (at a swimming pool) when meeting clients. According to Robert Shiller in his book Irrational Exuberance[5]"

In case you don't want to click the link.

He stole that from Jesus..

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I don't understand. I read the wiki link above. Surely there is another view of this guy for Rb to say we should take his predictions seriously because the guy is "known for not being full of bull." Where is he known in this way Rb? And Brooks is the OP here, presumably because he feels what this fellow says is important. Brooks, why is this a person whose predictions you follow?

But the Wiki post Eric refers to says:
Granville is probably best known for his bearish market calls during the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, when he claimed that the stock market was headed for imminent collapse. His overall track record, according to the Hulbert Financial Digest, is very poor.
The Granville Market Letter "is at the bottom of the Hulbert Financial Digest's rankings for performance over the past 25 years - having produced average losses of more than 20 percent per year on an annualized basis." See, Mark Hulbert, "Gambling on Granville", MarketWatch, March 16, 2005. Wiki goes on to quote Robert Shiller saying Granville: "His investment seminars were bizarre extravaganzas, sometimes featuring a trained chimpanzee would could play Granville's theme song "The Bagholder's Blues," on piano. He once showed up at an investment seminar dressed as Moses, wearing a crown and carrying tablets. Granville made extravagant claims about his forecasting ability. He said he could predict earthquakes and once claimed to have predicted six of the past seven major world quakes. He was quoted by TIME Magazine as saying "I don't think that I will ever make a serious mistake in the stock market for the rest of my life," and he predicted that he would win the Nobel Prize in economics."

A chimpanzee? Moses? Nobel prize? Really? This is the best source of advice rb and brooks can come up with? I don't think I'm calling my investment manager to discuss this.

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I watched it.
It was wackadellic!
I enjoyed this modern day Noah screaming for everyone to divest and pile on the Ark.
Crack pot...for sure.
So why are the hairs on the back of my neck tingling.
(last line is intentionally rhetorical)

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Very entertaining

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I like wackadellic. That's my new favorite adjective!

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Well, the market did not go down today.

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"1998 (University of Utah and Duke University) They reviewed 132 newsletter portfolios from 1983 to 1995. The average return was 12% with 11.9% volatility. An S&P portfolio and cash designed for the same volatility returned 16.8% for the same period. Some of the more notable newsletters had the worst performance. Granville Traders Portfolio lost 2.2% annually and the Elliot Wave Theorist Traders portfolio was down 10.1% "

1983 to 1995 one of the biggest bull runs and this moron performed the worst out of 132 market timers.

"Unless you are a holocaust denier, we are clearly knocking on 2004 pricing with absofuckinglutely NOTHING in the way to stop the momentum."

care to show a few examples? and please don't even bother with those apartment that have outrageous monthlies. there is a reason they are so cheap.

shit apartments might be selling at 2004 (a big maybe). anything not in the fringe is still going at a premium. not saying that prices can't go down. but thus far the market is holding. unfortunately for me, as i would love that 3 bedroom at $500/sq ft.

"care to show a few examples? and please don't even bother with those apartment that have outrageous monthlies. there is a reason they are so cheap."

That's his specialty - don't ruin it for him.

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Wbottom
7 minutes ago
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"anything not in the fringe is still going at a premium"

speaking of examples, provide a few

here are a couple. i am familiar with the chelsea area. give me another area, and i can find you some more.

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/632375-condo-100-west-18th-street-chelsea-new-york

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/635104-condo-101-west-24th-street-chelsea-new-york

"care to show a few examples?"

Why stop at a few examples. Look at the SE index which looks at every single condo same-unit paired sales. It's currently at the June 2005 level, and 10% away from the December 2004 level. If someone has a bearish outlook, doesn't "knocking on 2004 pricing" seem like the right choice of words? Saying "knocking on 2005 pricing" would be stupid since we are at 2005 pricing, don't you think?

"care to show a few examples?"

Why stop at a few examples. Look at the SE index which looks at every single condo same-unit paired sales. It's currently at the June 2005 level, and 10% away from the December 2004 level. If someone has a bearish outlook, doesn't "knocking on 2004 pricing" seem like the right choice of words? Saying "knocking on 2005 pricing" would be stupid since we are at 2005 pricing, don't you think?

perhaps i am looking at the wrong thing, but i see 2004 at 1.41, and current at 1.88. 2010 was at 1.79. if anything, we are moving away from 2004. not towards it.

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"perhaps i am looking at the wrong thing, but i see 2004 at 1.41, and current at 1.88. 2010 was at 1.79. if anything, we are moving away from 2004. not towards it. "

you have to understand inonada..

she claims she rented her stellar 2 bedroom at $4,500 back ni '07 and is paying just $2,500 for the same 2BR, less than the average rent for studios in her hood... she likes to use "personal experience" often as her source.

huntersburg
1 minute ago
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Chelsea is a neighborhood with improved housing stock since a decade ago, plenty of new construction condos and building conversions to condo, in addition to a unique area in Manhattan just above the protected GV/WV area. It's probably your least reliable way to compare today's market to a 2004 market and is frankly probably one of the areas that will hold up value since a decade ago because of the fundamental changes. The UES, UWS are more established neighborhoods in Manhattan and would be a more reliable indicator of pricing trends.

I agree with your statement. But doesn't this also show that you can't just look at the manhattan market as a whole?

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Disagree. That's like saying you can't look at the direction of the stock market because Apple is a component of it.

what are you doing to look at the Dow? its 30 stocks. If you were investing in certain sectors, you could look at individual stocks. Same with buying manhattan real estate. Value in chelsea might hold up better than on UES. And when apartments on UWS are falling in price, and those in the village are rising, you have two different markets.

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1) did we have a massive real estate bubble in nyc driven by lax credit, and was nyc the financial epicenter of said credit? NO

"perhaps i am looking at the wrong thing, but i see 2004 at 1.41, and current at 1.88. 2010 was at 1.79. if anything, we are moving away from 2004. not towards it."

You are not looking at the wrong thing, you are just behaving obtuse.

We are currently at 1878, about the same as June 2005's 1874. 2004 started at 1415 and ended at 1677. w67th believes that there is some sort of downward momentum that will push us into 2004 levels, which are 10% away. If we were at 1677, we'd no longer be "knocking on 2004 pricing", we'd "be at 2004 pricing". If you want to disagree with the prediction, that's one thing. But you were disagreeing with the level.

Again, suppose you believed prices are heading down. If we are at 1878 today, mid-2005 levels, and 2004 covered a range from 1415-1677, isn't "knocking on 2004 pricing" appropriate? What would you have said? "We are at mid-2005 pricing, knocking on early-2005 pricing?"

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"1) did we have a massive real estate bubble in nyc driven by lax credit, and was nyc the financial epicenter of said credit? NO"

OK, more questions.

4) Did ekartash buy at the top of the alleged non-bubble in 2007/2008?

5) Did Wbottom sell at the top of the alleged non-bubble in 2007, when the SE index was a full 15% higher than current levels?

"perhaps i am looking at the wrong thing, but i see 2004 at 1.41, and current at 1.88. 2010 was at 1.79. if anything, we are moving away from 2004. not towards it."

You are not looking at the wrong thing, you are just behaving obtuse.

We are currently at 1878, about the same as June 2005's 1874. 2004 started at 1415 and ended at 1677. w67th believes that there is some sort of downward momentum that will push us into 2004 levels, which are 10% away. If we were at 1677, we'd no longer be "knocking on 2004 pricing", we'd "be at 2004 pricing". If you want to disagree with the prediction, that's one thing. But you were disagreeing with the level.

Again, suppose you believed prices are heading down. If we are at 1878 today, mid-2005 levels, and 2004 covered a range from 1415-1677, isn't "knocking on 2004 pricing" appropriate? What would you have said? "We are at mid-2005 pricing, knocking on early-2005 pricing?"

I would agree if we were on a steady decline from the peak. but according to the chart, we bottomed in 2010, and have been plateauing ever since. actually we are up slightly from those levels. if we start seeing the next leg down, than i would agree that we could push through 2004 levels.

4) Did ekartash buy at the top of the alleged non-bubble in 2007/2008?

yes i did. sold last summer for 14% above what i paid. currently renting, but starting to look to buy a bigger place. like i said before, i wish i could find a 3 bedroom for $500 /sq ft. i just don't see it ever reaching those levels.

btw, going from owning to renting sucks. i liked having a place that was mine, and where i wasn't at the mercy of the landlord. that is why if i find a place we can live in for the next 7- 10 years, i am jumping on board.

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"yes i did. sold last summer for 14% above what i paid."

Congrats on being the outlier. You're forgetting to include paying the sponsor's transfer taxes (2%), the mortgage recording tax & points (2%), title insurance (0.5%), your own transfer taxes (2%), the broker fee (6%), and the small improvements you made (0.5%). Adds up to 15%, maybe I'm wrong by a percent here or there, but you ended up basically flat. And you were the outlier.

I'd say that your choice within the market was excellent, but that your timing of the market (buying at the peak of an alleged bubble that you don't think existed) sucked.

Meanwhile, Wbottom held his place for about the same period as you, only he sold at the peak rather than buying. He sold for for a 75% gross profit, netting 60-65% after all the transaction costs. An amount healthy in the 7-figures. During this period, the market was up 35-55%, let's call it 45%. So he outperformed the market by an even wider margin than you.

I'd say that his choice within the market was excellent as well, and his timing was spot-on.

I kowtow to the almighty Wbottom!

"yes i did. sold last summer for 14% above what i paid."

Congrats on being the outlier. You're forgetting to include paying the sponsor's transfer taxes (2%), the mortgage recording tax & points (2%), title insurance (0.5%), your own transfer taxes (2%), the broker fee (6%), and the small improvements you made (0.5%). Adds up to 15%, maybe I'm wrong by a percent here or there, but you ended up basically flat. And you were the outlier.

I'd say that your choice within the market was excellent, but that your timing of the market (buying at the peak of an alleged bubble that you don't think existed) sucked.

Meanwhile, Wbottom held his place for about the same period as you, only he sold at the peak rather than buying. He sold for for a 75% gross profit, netting 60-65% after all the transaction costs. An amount healthy in the 7-figures. During this period, the market was up 35-55%, let's call it 45%. So he outperformed the market by an even wider margin than you.

I'd say that his choice within the market was excellent as well, and his timing was spot-on.

I kowtow to the almighty Wbottom!

yes, i broke about even (slight profit) on the sale itself. but during all those years, my monthly living expense were about $1000 less than if i had rented a similar apartment. so overall i did pretty well. and i had a place that was my own.

congrats to Wbottom. if i had the money to buy when he did, i would have. but i was just out of college.

anyway, moving on. wake me up when we see the next leg down. for now, i am off to look at apartments.

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Love that bottoms had the "wits" and a bit of "luck" to absolutely nail selling at the top of the bubble but that he bangs his head against the wall and cries foul at the mere mention of buying at sub-20 rent-to-buy ratios in my neck of the woods. WB = the Oracle of Omaha; Wbottoms = the Oracle of SE. All hail.

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Wbottom -- yep, you were given a natural transition point (ableit an unfortunate one), one whose timing was very helpful, but you didn't piss the opportunity away. You wisely decided to sell (which you didn't have to) and decided not to buy (which was obviously an option). The forced placement of assets in escrow through 2008 was icing on the cake, I gotta say.

In any case, half of a 7-figure profit is better than all of a 0-figure profit, especially given it was bubble money that you were never expecting in the first place. Best part of it is that it's guilt-free: peak-bubble buyers still seem not to believe that there was a bubble at all, they think they bought a properly-priced asset from you.

Wbottom, a divorce with a happy ending!
Don't you wish everything came with a happy ending?

"The forced placement of assets in escrow through 2008 was icing on the cake, I gotta say."

Err, I meant "forced sale of assets and placement of cash in escrow through 2008".

Bottoms, hard to think what I could envy in that situation, given that mine's pretty good. Don't project. But seriously, congrats on everything working out, considering the position you were in.

But back to the topic - w67th, where does $500psf put us again? 1999 prices?

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Brooks2, not a bad find. I kind of hate the location, but it's really not that bad. Maintenance is reasonable given the apartment details. Further proof that there are always below-the-radar deals that can be found and that price trumps timing - always.

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Can someone with access see what price 14d sold for in 2004 and 2005.

"if you like that one, you can have 11D.. I'm kinda thinking it trades closer to $496psf."

Based on what? 5 floors above traded at $625. Can't imagine the view is that much better.

"SO WE ARE AT $496psf"

Love it! Typical w67th conclusion - I'm going to go ahead and declare that this unit will trade at $496psf, you know, just because, and using that, declare that all of Manhattan is at $496psf. If only it were that easy.

"We are just at the beginning phase of ppl trying to LOCK in SOME/ANY portion of the BUBBLE profits"

What would you call the past, I don't know, 3-4 years? Pre-beginning phase?

"I CAN'T SEE WHERE THERE IS A BOTTOM TO NYC RE...and by extension BILLYBURG BRKLYN... do you?"

"We have NOT finished squeezing leverage from banks and headcounts."

Agreed.

"We have NOT dealt with the HUGE overhang of delinquent loans in Manhattan."

How many are there? What are your estimates actually based on?

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"Can someone with access see what price 14d sold for in 2004 and 2005."

It went for $715K in 2004 and $915K in 2005.

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I believe it's a foregone conclusion we'll have QE3 at some point, I also believe after two rounds investors know the effect is temporary at best and that the market goes down in the end. We have weakness in economic weakness in Europe, Japan, China and the United States. I was watching the idiot talking heads this weekend, and this one guy suggested a lower unemployment rate was a reason to buy stocks. What this bozo failed to realize was that unemployment is a lagging and not a leading economic indicator.

ekartash: "yes, i broke about even (slight profit) on the sale itself. but during all those years, my monthly living expense were about $1000 less than if i had rented a similar apartment. so overall i did pretty well. and i had a place that was my own."

1) Yeah, I wonder about that: I have doubts about what bulls consider rent to be by people who actually rent. See the 111 Fulton thread where maklo was claiming a market rent that was a 30+% higher than where the asking rent sits. The $2.2M apt is going to transact at $7-8K now that the price has been cut, but before that maklo was claiming it to be an $11K apt.

2) What would your down payment have done if invested? Putting your money 50% in stocks (SPY) and 50% in bonds (TLT) would have returned 25%. That's without any timing or good stock choosing.

But I agree: you did well by getting out alive all things considered. If you hadn't gotten lucky with picking the AAPL of the market and simply tracked the market, your entire down payment would have been wiped out. The others who weren't so lucky are probably just stuck.

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Looks like someone missed the Dow run-up from 6k to 13k, more Brooks sour grapes.

Let me know when the market will tank 4k, take my money out the day before.

LOL!

"Here is one you can probably buy for less than $625 psf on the EXCLUSIVE Sutton Place.. Even with that name buy it now for below $600 psf i bet!"

Hope you have the 200k it will cost to get it out of "estate" condition. It needs a gut renovation.

Also check the sqft it about 1200 sqft, with renovations it will run almost $850 psqft. LOL!

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Guess I get under Brooks2's skin?

Good!

I'll let you know when Whole Foods opens. LOL!

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I agree.

Time to sell everything.

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The market is up for one reason and one reason alone--The Fed. What do you think happens when that subsidy is gone.

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