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Really, you must buy now or be priced out...
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http://www.nytimes.com/2012/05/13/realestate/developers-cease-to-offer-condo-incentives.html

As recently as late last year, buyers could expect to negotiate with developers on price and closing costs like taxes and legal fees. But these incentives are rapidly drying up, buyers, brokers and developers say.

Lack of inventory is largely responsible for the trend.

Last month, 1,624 listings came on the market, a drop of nearly 8 percent from April 2011 and a 21.5 percent decrease from April 2010.

At the same time, the pace of signed deals in Manhattan is the highest it has been since UrbanDigs began collecting data in 2008, said Noah Rosenblatt, the site’s founder. In April, for example, 1,164 contracts were signed, a 13.6 percent increase over the same period last year; in March, 1,213 contracts were signed, a jump of nearly 16 percent over March 2011.

At some new buildings, the tables have been completely turned: developers are raising prices. At two developments, Stribling Marketing & Associates has amended offering plans filed with the New York State attorney general’s office, which oversees new condominiums, to reflect new, higher prices.

I read the article and it jives with my experience in north Brooklyn. I was about to negotiate on a studio in the low $500,000 range. Before I could finish my sentence, the broker stated the unit had just increased in price by $50,000. With that kind of jump in the price for a studio unit (apparently these units are especially attractive to investors), I decided to work harder to get a larger 1.5 BR unit in the development next door. Fortunately, I was able to negotiate half transfer taxes for the new condo dev. and a 5-7% discount on sale price. I believe mine was one of the last units to get these concessions. I started this process in late February 2012-early March 2012.

Legally, transfer taxes are to be paid by the seller. Ironic that not getting the buyer to take them over is somehow a concession. I think things began tightening up a while ago. Rushmore was offering 20% discounts at one point and I hear picking up other things such as first month or two maintenance, and I assume transfer tax then as well.

Riversider,

I understand what you stated above is true EXCEPT in new condo developments, where the BUYER has to pay the transfer taxes. Ha, this is what I learned of the rules of buying in NYC in the short time I have been in the market this time around (tried buying a co-op in Manhattan almost a decade ago and the coop board was so unpleasant and difficult I swore never to try buying into a coop again).

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nytimes is the biggest real estate bull...its always going up for them. That being said....like any market, what comes up must come down. Nothing goes up forever so you wont be priced out "forever", but if you see something you love now and you can afford it easily, then by all means make an offer, you only live once.

Today feels different. More investor properties at the low end. Lots of shadow inventory which is not available for sale on account of prices being lower than back when purchased. Feels like we could have a nice 10% blip up before some of that gets advertised. We also don't have that much new construction.

I don't think prices run away, but I do think we see higher prices.

riversider ur right, NYC had the best strategy , we hid the most shadow inventory. So much hasnt been released and so much turned rental. Those rental properties will be condos again and as these sell bc of the demand, the condos will release even more inventory. I'm hearing about construction happening downtown bk and williamsburg for more new buildings...

never would have thought this would have happened... ;)

Wait...the NY Times is saying that real estate prices are going up again? Wow...who saw that coming?

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Don't confuse the weather with the climate.

Sorry Brooks, but I think people are way too bearish on real estate and too bullish on stocks at the moment.

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Owning is cheaper than renting. Win.
Tax breaks are a bonus. WIN.
Living rent free for the last 30 year motherfucking of your life? More icing on top! WINNING !

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"Poor Brooks2.

Trying sooooooooo hard to insist that prime Manhattan real estate (not stuff with crazy land leases, or an undesirable location, or fugly layouts with no light, etc.) is headed for an across the board $500/sf.

And then he cherry picks examples between First or Second Avenue in the 50's or 60's in a land lease building with awful financials or on a low floor with a crappy floor plan and no light and then he says - "See?!?!? $500 a square foot!!!"

Poor Brooks2."

you forgot to add bridge or tunnel entrance.. i do love my guido closet cases though, so a plus for me personally, nay for the rest of manhatta.

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and you are saying don't buy yet because we are not at the peak?

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we will see good numbers for 2Q this year. i think things turn for the worse after 2Q.

actually given the lag of closings from csgn date + acris filing delay, I think Q3 will have some nice vol and contract prices populating it

I think the new construction phenomenon has so much to do with less new construction inventory availability, particularly in "good" neighborhoods and desirable locations. Add that to the simplicity of buying a Condo VS Co-op, combined with the international buying factor that is becoming ever-present in Manhattan...and there you go, the whole story behind the article.

Flight to quality is continuing in my mind, and you always have the down-sizing retirees wanting a place in the city, the parents subsidizing places for their kids to live (at all ages), and those like me who were just tired or renting and were just ready to buy. Been an owner for just over a year now and thrilled I don't have to deal with a landlord telling me how much my rent is going up this year...not to mention I actually broke even on my taxes for the first time in ten years thanks to the interest deduction. Lots of people just like me out there probably feeling exactly the same thing...

And before you start talking about common charges and RE taxes....etc. being like rent, that's already been built into the equation and my projections. I'll take my 1% Common Charge increase over a 15% rent increase all day long...

God, listen to me, 3 years ago I was one of the biggest bears out there...guess once you're in the game you have to root for the home team.

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56. Rent stabilized long term tenant. Rent about 2,000 a month and climbing. Should we have the opportunity to buy in a condo conversion at below market rate price.. Do it? Or stay renter? I know there are huge variables but any advice as a concept.

NYC 10007 - well put. You pretty much covered all the reasons why the condo market is increasing at the moment. Globally sourced demand for Manhattan properties is again on the rise - driven by desire to own here, wealth transfer and protection - compared to other global cities Manhattan is still reasonably priced - which is what makes it challenging for local buyers to compete sometimes.

Whether it's the Brazilian leather designer coming with $650,000 cash looking for a Williamsburg investment, the Colorado based developer getting on in years looking for a pied-a-terre to spend weekends every other months going to the theater and museums, someone who's renting and watching their rents suddenly jump 15-25%, or the Russian Billionaire planting $88 million down in the US at 15 Central Park West - many are seeing real estate and especially Manhattan real estate as more secure than equities or other currencies that may suddenly devalue beyond 25-30%.

From a local standpoint, renting vs. buying is a personal choice and it's a place to live, grow and establish roots by creating a sense of 'home'. Again it's got huge value for many like you, but it's not for everyone though most in the long term appreciate the benefits. - Tony Sargent. SVP - Core.

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