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Sales and rental markets 2013 predictions
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Prediction: sales prices up for the year, although with one stagnant/bad quarter in there somewhere. Rents up 6% or so.

ali r.
DG Neary Realty

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"How about more insight? What supports 6% rent up?"

Basically sounds like it was pulled directly out of a lower bodily orifice. Does the fiscal cliff ring a bell for anyone? Dividends are taxed as ordinary income and capital gains taxes increase by 33%. And then there are the increases on marginal income taxes across the board. Less take home income = less buying power. But, yet, some borker decides the real estate market is only going up and up. Don't let the facts get in the way of your delusions.

The Fiscal Slope will be "old news" in 2 weeks. The Repubs just can't be seen to vote for tax increases before 12/31. After 12/31, they can vote for "tax decreases" from the new increased levels. AMT gets fixed. 10% tax rate gets fixed. Unemployment gets fixed etc... Mortgage interest remains deductible. No way are they going to hit housing before it's fully recovered. Same outcome but they can still say that they never voted for a tax increase come their next election. The economy will suffer during 2013 due to this shameless politicking and uncertainty but what's more important, solving things before they're broken or their next election??!!

Taxes for those above $500k do increase. Effect on property - minimal.

Anyway to the matter in hand. Here's my 0.02c for 2013 Manhattan.

Rental market is softish, likely slightly down based on prices getting ahead of demand during 2012.

I think sales market is moderately up perhaps 5%. Right now, inventory is very tight and there's little prospect for that supply side to change significantly in 2013. Economics suggests that if demand exceeds supply then prices will increase. I'm seeing a number of individuals. myself included, running the numbers on 3% mortgages and coming up with the conlusion that 5, 7, 10 year carrying costs on a purchase are lower than renting unless the rental market falls considerably or sales prices drop considerably.

I'm not going to get into a debate on what happens in five years time when/if interest rates are higher and when/if more inventory gets put on to the market and when those who'd are underwater after closing costs can finally sell. I'm simply making a statement on 2013.

My crystal ball doesn't go as far as 2014 and I'm not suggesting that it can't be down.

Here's where I'll go out on a limb. If momentum really gets going and it becomes irrefutable that prices are increasing in Q1/Q2, I think we could actually see a mini-boom in 2013 as momentum feeds the demand side. In this scenario, I'll say 12% up in 2013. We all know real-estate is cyclical and sentiment based and that's what makes it so difficult to predict.

SE condo index up 4% . Not sure which rental index is reliable but up 5% for properties under $6-7k per month. I am bullish on the economy once fiscal cliff is sorted out, which may take 2 more months.

The talking heads of the real estate industrial complex are saying "flat" on the rental market. Given that they never say "down", not a sign of confidence in the market:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/30/realestate/the-new-york-rental-tide-subsides.html

Agree if Gary Malin says flat, it is hard to see the rents being up.

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Interest rates up at least .75% over the next 9 months.

Sales within $1000 to $1100 per sq ft avg of combined coops and condos for the year.

Rent may go up, as there will be a lot less buying. Question is how much brooklyn, queens, and northern manhattan absorb this traffic. I think those areas go up regardless.

Condos are in a mini bubble right now, averaging $1300 per sq ft while coops @ $930.
Avg maintanance for condos seriously spike because of taxes and now surpass co-ops.
Either condos have to come down a bit or co-ops will go up. I think a little bit of both will happen.

The real estate market continues to grow as demand remains and supply has still not caught up due to the freeze during the recession.

Rent is going gangbusters in LIC!

http://streeteasy.com/nyc/rental/983772-519-borden-avenue-hunters-point-long-island-city

2 bedroom going for 4,000 bucks a month.

With unemployment at 7.7% and QE infinity still going, i say everything continues to float UP.

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I think rents and sales continue to grind up. Only way that changes is we have another lehman like blow up.

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3 months in to the year, do we have more predictions on prices for 2013? I went 5% to 12% up and thought I was really going to the high end on the 12%. I guess I should clarify that I am talking change in average price per sqft which seems like the fairest measure vs overall average or median. Feels like the 12% predication could materialize unless something significant comes up to take the wind out of the sails.

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