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are cliff-tax concerns affecting the sales market
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I would say the near complete obliteration of bonuses on wall street will be what keeps things down. I dont think anyone will come away with more than than 50k in cash. Only the hedgies are looking good.

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without significant cash bonuses how are people going to have the even just the 200k it would take to just walk in the door on a 500k apartment. forget the highend. Im including closing costs etc, 20% down, escrow...and Im a bull mind you

marco_m. No more than $50k cash? care to offer up evidence of this? If you're talking about kids straight out of B-school then maybe, but pretty unlikely people that are making $400k-$600k are only getting $50k on top of their $150k Salary. I'd add another $100k to your $50k as the more likely cash bonus scenario. Still not great, but I think you're being a little dramatic.

I've got buyers, what I don't have is inventory. Traditionally that comes later in the spring ... we'll see.

ali r.
DG Neary Realty

Very few Wall Street employees are getting $150K cash bonuses. Cash bonuses are capped and stock bonuses are deferred over several years.
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/01/15/its-bonus-week-on-wall-street/

The bonus scenario now is very different from a few years ago.

Im not being dramatic whatsoever. I work on the street. Just pull up some news about Morgan stanley. all the banks move in lockstep when it comes to comp. otherwise poaching talent would be too easy. I wish it wasnt so believe me.

Think about it. For a $1,000,000 condo you need 200K down and $400K in income. Getting hit with an extra 20K or 30K in taxes; not to mention decreased bonuses has to hurt. Foreign (and other all cash) buyers, however, are lurking and the slightest weakness will help them

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@rb345 - you have alluded to the potential collapse of the United States economy in relatively short order in a few threads now; you seem like a very thoughtful poster from whom I'd like to hear more. Can you elaborate?

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Well projecting out 1400 years from now I dont think serves any purpose.
One can practically guarantee one of the following events to diminsh world population substancially if not remove us all 1400 years from now.....
a) a pathogen or mutated virus,bacteria,or fungus
b) an overdue ice age
c) an overdue super volcano ( that will bring an ice age)
d) an asteroid strike ( that will bring an ice age)
e) wars over drinking water
f) or a happier way, an extra terrestial colony (Mars is looking good, certainly 1000 years from now)

I'm sure a milenium ago, they were pondering whether there would be enough horses for people to ride on in 1000 years.

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rb345 - You have hit on the issue that terrifies me the most - the coming water wars. I also find China's political ability to address some of these serious issues to be a disturbing attribute of its political system. I am not optimistic about U.S. political system's ability to address these issues, but I still would not trade our system for China's. I think such is our fate and I am just hoping for some technological innovation, maybe energy revolution that will improve the outlook.

Truthskr10 - Once again, I am in your camp here. I believe mankind will eventually go the way of the dinosaurs for one reason or another, but at least we will have had a good run. I just hope the end comes quickly when it does; e.g., when the asteroid strikes, I am hoping that my loved ones and I are in the immediate strike zone. I don't want to end up like the protagonist in Cormac McCarthy's The Road, battling untold horrors in a post-apocalyptic world for the sake of my loved ones.

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Novice, "The Road" was pretty grim and though the occasional bedtime dream of being Mad Max in years past had some morning appeal from the testosterone rush for the day, no scenario seems palatable.

rb345
>6. 4470 people died last year in Teheran from air pollution
I am curious as to the source and how this is verified? Are we sure they didnt die from radiation instead?
It's like my skepticism on temperature readings from say... Minsk in 1925 to fuel anthropogenic climate change models, data is sometimes subject to it's source.

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RB345

I think you mistook my pointing out the Tehran stat. I was more making a joke about Iranian transparency and in how their citizens may have alternatively died instead.

I agree climate change of any kind can be highly disruptive to a whole host of things.
I hate that environmentalism is politicized.
Even as a kid, seeing how money and politics influenced so many things, I always thought doctors and scientists were the only ones above the fray and Im sorely disappointed in the last decade.
THough the warming is actually verified for the northern hemisphere, the southern has actually cooled.
If the southern hemisphere starts warming, we are in deep doodoo, where 90% of the world's frozen water rests.

I am not really a Republican or a Democrat. Im quite centrist, though being in new york I find myself arguing more conservative points. If I lived in Texas I'd find myself arguing mostly liberal points.

Forms of climate change are guaranteed for Earth, whether we are here or not. I cant believe pumping all this carbon in the atmosphere is positive and if we could remove politics from it, I'd hope we'd focus on real solutions or at least game plans.
Making soccer moms drive a prius is not where the priority should be.
Neither is rebuilding decimated housing that rests below sea level.
Maybe polar bears aren't supposed to survive?

Anyway, I just feel society is just getting dumber by the minute. By next generation we'll be feeding crops "Brawndo, the thirst mutilator. 'Cause it's got what plants crave."
(If you haven't seen it yet. And want a good laugh if you like silly/funny movies. See Idiocracy to understand the quote)

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rb345 - I agree with 1-6; hoping you are wrong on 7-8, but I don't rule out the possibility you are right; 9 is tough b/c U.S. political class is a reflection of all of us, so I own whatever decisions our system produces because I believe our system is the best one out there; as for the rest of the world, well, for any country that has any type of authoritarian system, they should take a page from China's book; re 10, I do feel powerless.

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