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Is anyone seeing evidence that the fiscal cliff and tax
disputes in Washington are affecting the sales markets here
in NYC, and if so how?
The uncertainties and fears generated by those issues should
be dampening the overall sales market. At the same time, the
new tax brackets for the super-rich, i.e., Manhattan's middle
class, should be stimulating sales at the high end of the market.
I would say the near complete obliteration of bonuses on wall street will be what keeps things down. I dont think anyone will come away with more than than 50k in cash. Only the hedgies are looking good.
Wall Street bonuses primarily affect the most expensive end of the market, not its cheaper
rungs. Even there sellers are not likely to be shopping for spam after they sell.
without significant cash bonuses how are people going to have the even just the 200k it would take to just walk in the door on a 500k apartment. forget the highend. Im including closing costs etc, 20% down, escrow...and Im a bull mind you
marco_m. No more than $50k cash? care to offer up evidence of this? If you're talking about kids straight out of B-school then maybe, but pretty unlikely people that are making $400k-$600k are only getting $50k on top of their $150k Salary. I'd add another $100k to your $50k as the more likely cash bonus scenario. Still not great, but I think you're being a little dramatic.
I've got buyers, what I don't have is inventory. Traditionally that comes later in the spring ... we'll see.
DG Neary Realty
Very few Wall Street employees are getting $150K cash bonuses. Cash bonuses are capped and stock bonuses are deferred over several years.
The bonus scenario now is very different from a few years ago.
Im not being dramatic whatsoever. I work on the street. Just pull up some news about Morgan stanley. all the banks move in lockstep when it comes to comp. otherwise poaching talent would be too easy. I wish it wasnt so believe me.
Think about it. For a $1,000,000 condo you need 200K down and $400K in income. Getting hit with an extra 20K or 30K in taxes; not to mention decreased bonuses has to hurt. Foreign (and other all cash) buyers, however, are lurking and the slightest weakness will help them
how is someone or a couple with a 400K income getting hit with 20K more in taxes much less 30K?
foreign buyers are lurking?
I think the more serious threat to real estate is that even if the cliff is scaled this
time around, that the United States economy is heading towards some sort of collapse,
which, when it occurs, is likely to be aggravated by domestic terrorists.
@rb345 - you have alluded to the potential collapse of the United States economy in relatively short order in a few threads now; you seem like a very thoughtful poster from whom I'd like to hear more. Can you elaborate?
1. elaborating will take more time than I presently have
2. and should be addressed in a separate thread
3. briefly, almost all of the world's major economic sub-systems are under immense
stress and dis-synchronicity, in most if not almost all cases more stress than
they have been in decades and possibly ever, and getting worse because of a com-
plete lack of political leadership and willinginess to tackle problems honestly,
and private sector behaviot which in many instances is worsening the problem
4. achieving the 4% per year annual growth in real GDP which our business leaders and
political parties have set as their benchmark of economic prosperity would rewquire
US GDP to grow by about 51,200% in the next 160 years
5. allowing world population to grow by 1%/year compounded would result in approximately
1.05 trillion people ... for every living human ... in only about 1410 years
6. neither of those trends are sustainable over the long run because of insufficient supplies
of clean fresh water, food, arable land, energy, and industrial metals
7. to the contrary, we are already experiencing increasingly severe problems with current sup-
plies of those basic materials, e.g., the possible collapse of the Mississippi River as a ship-
ping channel due to drought and climat-change induced changes in the timig and size of early
snoe melts which are critical both to US agriculture and to maritime shipping
8. but so far there is no meaningful pilitical will except in China to seriously address those
problems, which have begun to cause political unrest and upheaval in the most seriously affected
parts of the world
Well projecting out 1400 years from now I dont think serves any purpose.
One can practically guarantee one of the following events to diminsh world population substancially if not remove us all 1400 years from now.....
a) a pathogen or mutated virus,bacteria,or fungus
b) an overdue ice age
c) an overdue super volcano ( that will bring an ice age)
d) an asteroid strike ( that will bring an ice age)
e) wars over drinking water
f) or a happier way, an extra terrestial colony (Mars is looking good, certainly 1000 years from now)
I'm sure a milenium ago, they were pondering whether there would be enough horses for people to ride on in 1000 years.
Revenue increases will not be good for manhattan RE
rb345 - You have hit on the issue that terrifies me the most - the coming water wars. I also find China's political ability to address some of these serious issues to be a disturbing attribute of its political system. I am not optimistic about U.S. political system's ability to address these issues, but I still would not trade our system for China's. I think such is our fate and I am just hoping for some technological innovation, maybe energy revolution that will improve the outlook.
Truthskr10 - Once again, I am in your camp here. I believe mankind will eventually go the way of the dinosaurs for one reason or another, but at least we will have had a good run. I just hope the end comes quickly when it does; e.g., when the asteroid strikes, I am hoping that my loved ones and I are in the immediate strike zone. I don't want to end up like the protagonist in Cormac McCarthy's The Road, battling untold horrors in a post-apocalyptic world for the sake of my loved ones.
With the likes of Obama we will be Elois
1. my projections were intended to underscore the magnitude of the problems facing US and world civilization
2. however, the early storms have already made landfall
3. and it just isnt water: it's food and many basic industrial metals, and possibye unranium yellowcake too
4. and the problems are interdependent and dynami
5. Beijing virtually closed this week because of polliution: levels many x US limits
6. 4470 people died last year in Teheran from air pollution
7. some US farmer drawing water from the Oglalla aquifer and eliminating water draws because water tables
are down 170 to 200 feet from 40 years ago
8. the entire world is now one big Ponzi scheme
9. if western nations dont continue to give hundreds of billions of $$ per year to 3rd workld nations
many of those countries will experience widespread famimes
9. and if they do it is onlo a matter of time before bond investors blacklist them
10. you can only print so much money before its highest value is as fireplace feedstock rather than currency
11. then there is political instability and change in military technology and capabilitiees
12. Iraq and Syria are testing grounds for new types of guerrilla warfare and economic sabotage
13. sooner or later we are likelt to experience similar terrorism here
14. which will damage or destroy the US economy
15. at a time when we need an enlightened political class we have short-sighted morons running this country
Novice, "The Road" was pretty grim and though the occasional bedtime dream of being Mad Max in years past had some morning appeal from the testosterone rush for the day, no scenario seems palatable.
>6. 4470 people died last year in Teheran from air pollution
I am curious as to the source and how this is verified? Are we sure they didnt die from radiation instead?
It's like my skepticism on temperature readings from say... Minsk in 1925 to fuel anthropogenic climate change models, data is sometimes subject to it's source.
1. I am a Republican
2. I donated maybe $15,000 to $20,000 to the Bush and McCain campaigns
3. global warming is a reality and a very serious problem for the US even just domestically
4. the reason the issue is so politically acrimonious is that it involves three separate components
5. observable fact, causation and remedy
6. global warming has been verified from scores of sources, from icebergs to glacier melts
7. Mars is also undergoing warming right now
8. which means that at least part of the warming on earth might be due to solar radiatiom
9. that much said, I dont know if people are responsible for all of the Earth's current global warming
10. and I dont agree that we wealthy Americans should fee guilty about our carbon footprints
11. or that any Kyoto type treaty will ever work
12. the problem might be insoluble
13. it might also cause massive political and economic dislocation worldwide
14. but the U.S. wont stop most other countries from polluting aggressive;y
I think you mistook my pointing out the Tehran stat. I was more making a joke about Iranian transparency and in how their citizens may have alternatively died instead.
I agree climate change of any kind can be highly disruptive to a whole host of things.
I hate that environmentalism is politicized.
Even as a kid, seeing how money and politics influenced so many things, I always thought doctors and scientists were the only ones above the fray and Im sorely disappointed in the last decade.
THough the warming is actually verified for the northern hemisphere, the southern has actually cooled.
If the southern hemisphere starts warming, we are in deep doodoo, where 90% of the world's frozen water rests.
I am not really a Republican or a Democrat. Im quite centrist, though being in new york I find myself arguing more conservative points. If I lived in Texas I'd find myself arguing mostly liberal points.
Forms of climate change are guaranteed for Earth, whether we are here or not. I cant believe pumping all this carbon in the atmosphere is positive and if we could remove politics from it, I'd hope we'd focus on real solutions or at least game plans.
Making soccer moms drive a prius is not where the priority should be.
Neither is rebuilding decimated housing that rests below sea level.
Maybe polar bears aren't supposed to survive?
Anyway, I just feel society is just getting dumber by the minute. By next generation we'll be feeding crops "Brawndo, the thirst mutilator. 'Cause it's got what plants crave."
(If you haven't seen it yet. And want a good laugh if you like silly/funny movies. See Idiocracy to understand the quote)
1. in the short run humans need carbon fuels for heat and transportation because there
is no viable alternative and without them our transportation, food, water supply and
water purification, and home energy systems will not work
2. international treaties cant be relied upon to curb pollution in part because it would
seem to be essentially impossible to verify compliance, which means many nations would cheaat
3. the single most useful step world society could take to reduce pollution is birth control and
limiting family size, as China did
4. but for diffefent political reasons that hasnt and probably wont happen
5. which leases Nature to takes it course
6. the imbalances caused by imbecilic fertility policies will eventually self-correct
7. and that correction will bring upheavel unseen in human history
8. the intensity of which will be accelerated and magnified by the internet
9. that future is the fault of the world's policital classes, selfish businesspersons, and the U.N
10. but it still seems fairly inevitable
rb345 - I agree with 1-6; hoping you are wrong on 7-8, but I don't rule out the possibility you are right; 9 is tough b/c U.S. political class is a reflection of all of us, so I own whatever decisions our system produces because I believe our system is the best one out there; as for the rest of the world, well, for any country that has any type of authoritarian system, they should take a page from China's book; re 10, I do feel powerless.
It is an axiom of history that in the long run the willingness of parasitic people
to exploit the kindness or stupidity of their benefactors will eventually exceed the
resources of their benefactors and leave both in extreme distress.
Historically people have adjusted family size to the current ecomomic and food/water
conditions of their societies tthe welfare state has disrupted and prevented that
healthy self-regulating mechanism from coming into effect.
But like so many of our other economic sub-systems, it is a massive and growing Ponzi
scheme which like all such schemes will eventually collapse.
What a really odd post rb.
Odd to you G but well known to many
This is my favorite by rb345:
7. Mars is also undergoing warming right now