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So I get these alerts on this Streeteasy site and here are just a couple of representative alerts that show humongous price increases (to well above peak prices before Lehman went under). This feels like a bad dream because it seems like buyers who've been waiting on the sidelines are simply caving in and paying these ridiculous prices. It's like a bad blackjack player who takes a hit on 20 and ruins the deck for the rest of the players! I understand why impatient buyers would pay a little bit more to finally land a new home for themselves, but the additional increment that they're paying is shocking. So here are a couple of examples just from today:
1BR at 2 Horatio that sold for $945,000 a little over a year and a half ago - listed today for $1,585,000.
3BR at 20 East 9th (Brevoort East) sold for $1,990,000 about 2 years ago - listed today for $3,695,000.
Mkt is what it is...we're selling into the run up.
For 20 east 9th, if this apt sells above 3mm, deserves an "how much profit" post.
When interest rates go up, the Dow goes down and other countries become real estate investment safe. Would love to buy in Spain or Italy...do I trust that they won't come up with rules and regulations that would hurt foreign owners...no , nit when France's new president wants to impose huge taxes on second homes.
Whoops, I thought based on the title of the post that this was about c0lumbiac0unty. My bad. Carry on.
how many different identities?
Let's all try to be grown-ups and stay on topic and offer intelligent thoughts, rather than allowing this post to get hijacked by silly posters. What I'm really wondering is why don't buyers just take a deep breath instead of fueling this hysteria. Clearly, it cannot be an unrestrained upward price trajectory. I keep hearing that it's the low interest rates that are allowing sellers to name their price. But what happens when these buyers who overpaid because interest rates were at 4% suddenly want to sell a few years down the road when rates are at 6%? Aren't they setting themselves up for a loss?
Sorry FormerRenter, I'm done, I thought when you were talking about insanity it was about c0lumbiac0unty, but I see that it isn't.
Are you planning on selling your place that you bought a couple years ago - is that why you started this thread?
Well, if this thread is going to go from FormerRenter justifying a high price for his apartment and how smart he was to buy, to one actually about c0lumbiac0unty's insanity, then I guess I'm not done after all.
so done is not done?
I remember when rates used to be at 12% and the market was hot. There are other factors besides interest rates. There's Wall St. and the more and more internet startups are coming here.
Perhaps also foreign investors are fueling the market.
All the arguments about rising rates are equally valid for other financial assets. People are still holding bonds with some duration and feeling that their money is safe. However, the rate rise scenario is real. I would be selling bonds before I worry about real estate and equities.
In general, if rates are going up due to growth, real estate and equities can easily handle 2-3 percent rise in fed fund rates and 2 percent rise in ten year rates. Mortgage spreads are going to narrow with economic growth, so net impact on 30 y mortgage will be appx 50 bps less than the 10y rate rise. Also, many people are doing 30y fixed rate mortgage (not me) due to low rates. Assuming, these buyers/ owners with low rates had to sell when the rates are higher, a bigger percentage of buyers will shift to ARM if the rates go up.
Jeff Gundlach says that the bond market is not in a bubble. Do you know more about bonds than him?
another post from huntersburg.
why are you hiding?
aren't you proud?
For the record, my "FormerRenter" moniker was selected as an effort to maintain a level of optimism that, one day, I would be a former renter. I'm still a current renter, hoping to be an owner. My recent posts are not about gloating over making well-timed real estate decisions. Just the opposite actually - frustration about being priced out.
Maybe Aboutready can chime in here.
columbiacounty and greensdale, can I make a polite request that you please stop this back and forth. I would think that you're both adult enough to be respectful to those on this forum who would like to discuss this issue. Thank you. Appreciate it.
FormerRenter, I server a very legit purpose. Here, for instance, I got you to admit that your posting name is a complete lie and self-delusion. Sorry.
former renter, There are still some very good prices in UES, Midtown East and Murray Hill. Prime downtown is almost at the 2007/8 peak, if not higher. If you think you will stay in your apt for 10y move fast and lock in some low rates.
>Prime downtown is almost at the 2007/8 peak, if not higher.
You are trying to induce him to buy with that? Prime downtown equal to or greater than 2007/8 peak?
Here are some examples:
Gut reno at $1000 per sq ft on Park Ave.
Move in condition under $1000 per sq ft.
More. Stop being frustrated. ACT before UES becomes prime downtown.
So your point is that these 3 listings are undiscovered steals, not that there's a rational market going on based on the neighborhood, building/co-op, and apartment itself?
greensdale, When are you going to start adding some value? I am sure you are smart enough to tell. It is in you somewhere.
>greensdale, When are you going to start adding some value? I am sure you are smart enough to tell. It is in you somewhere.
I get it, you couldn't withstand my criticism of your ridiculous tired "steals" so you attack me instead. If they are such great purchases, why not buy another place? Why not sell what you have now and "upgrade" to a larger place?
Also, do I need to remind you of your posts that have speficically agreed with my "value"?
Let's all try to be grown-ups and stay on topic and offer intelligent thoughts, rather than allowing this post to get hijacked by silly posters.
Geeenadale brings a breath of fresh air and a reality check to this site.
It's too bad you feel threatened when someone challenges your option.
am i challenging your option?
19 minutes ago
19 minutes ago
Member since: Feb 2007
ignore this person
300, this "steal" - your "value add" - can you explain why it is a steal, and why you are the first to see this wonderful opportunity? Even "FormerRenter" didn't find it as desperately as he's been searching.
how pathetic is it to create multiple identities that you then use to talk to each other? very sad.
as long as the fucking obama keeps printing money and debt, this insanity will go on and on
300mercer, I agree with you that you can still get some value on the UES, Midtown East and Murray Hill. There's probably a good deal of smart money on the UES near the subway stops on the 2nd Avenue line. But those neighborhoods have less appeal to me. I suspect that's why there is some value there - because many people find them less "sexy" (plus there's just more inventory in those neighborhoods, so we're back to the fundamentals of supply and demand being the key driver of price). For the first time, though, I've actually added those neighborhoods to my Streeteasy alerts because I've become more realistic about being priced out of the more "sexy" neighborhoods.
Good luck. If we were to buy today, it probably will need to be upper east side as prime downtown is at 30 percent ish premium to ues.
I like Midtown East, particularly along Lex/Third between 53rd and 59th. You have a five minute walk to subways which get you up and down the east side (456), go over to the west side (E) and take you down the center of the island (NQRM). Plus you're less than 10 minute's walk to Central Park. And the value is there in that area as well - big apartments in well run, full service buildings (there are exceptions, of course, just speaking in broad generalities) under $700/sf...
Matsonjones, Midtown East seems to be a good compromise between downtown and the UES. Any suggestions as to good full-service buildings in the 700-800/sf range?
HINT: use the IGNORE button ~ works like a charm.
Former: I think the market is on a tear primarily because of the foreign buyers. In my building alone, two foreign buyers in the past year have bought apts that were 25% above comps for the same apt line in that sold in the past two years. It is just generally difficult to game the market with these foreigners -- and not just the advantages of currency fluctuations. Take the Chinese buyers for example which are fueling the mid and high end market. Will the crack down on corruption in China make a difference to people trying to hide their ill gotten gains in NYC RE? Probably not. Will a pop in the Chinese RE bubble make a difference? Who knows? It might force more buyers to look outside their own country. As long as our govt "sells" permanent residency visas for anyone who invests $500,000 in an apt, the market will continue to go up.
I also would like to buy but won't jump in at these prices. But with the money that I was going to use to buy a NYC apt in 2008, I invested instead in the depressed MIami apt market. I just sold my Miami apt for a huge profit -- to a foreigner--- and I also invested my RE $$'s in the stock market. So my ability to purchase in NYC RE has vastly improved - virtually doubled. But right now it is still cheaper to rent than buy so that is what I am going to do until I find something that I will not lose money on in the next few years during these very volatile economic times.
FormerRenter: I can't speak to specific buildings - but I suggest looking in the 100 and 200 blocks on 53rd to 59th Streets. It's a case by case basis (of course, there are some land leases and other building issues, as there are anywhere else) but in general $700-$800/sf in that area would do quite nicely....
@Mercer300- just a comment on the first two listings you posted.
The one at 1036 park asking $1.395- there's one on a lower floor that couldnt get $1.25M (same condition) for years. And another one (same apt, same building) in good condition went for about $995k.
Additionally in 09 similar apartments at 118 East 60th street were going in the mid to high $800k range.
Whereas midtown/east sutton place and other areas you mentioned are still at the lower 08/09 levels.
I think there might be an over tendency on this board to think that most purchasers are either foreigners looking for a place to park money or investors. Right now I know a few people who are just looking to buy a place to live. Tired of paying high rents and have now saved enough to buy a place. A few waited to ride out the booming prices, but now realize there is no reason to wait. People are secure in their jobs and want a place. These are the people from NYC who are lining up for open houses and getting involved in multiple bid situations.
FR: I think the days of value are gone. If places are cheaper in certain areas, it is because they are less desirable. Youngish people have no interest in living in UES or UWS. When is last time someone said: "Hey lets go out in UES/UWS..." Nice neighborhoods of course, but very established and set in their ways. So yes, you can find value there, but it is because they are less valued by purchasers.
What are you looking for??
>FR: I think the days of value are gone. If places are cheaper in certain areas, it is because they are less desirable. Youngish people have no interest in living in UES or UWS. When is last time someone said: "Hey lets go out in UES/UWS..." Nice neighborhoods of course, but very established and set in their ways. So yes, you can find value there, but it is because they are less valued by purchasers.
Agree, 300's claim the the Upper East Side would become "prime downtown" is nonsensical.
1. I would like to learn more about your statement that you have friends who
have now decided to buy because they feel that they cannot wait out rising prices
2. two questions
3. when did they make those decisions: how recently
4. what led them to make those decisions
I did an open house three Sundays ago and the bulk of people who showed
up had been looking for over one year
FR: If you are looking at Midtown East, stay East of 3rd Avenue. Much quieter and much more residential, yet still in a short walk of all midtown has to offer.
Some UWS 1BR in the prime areas are going for above 2008 peak prices.
Midtown East east of third is also likely to be cheaper, especially east of 2nd and 1st. Better
for people on budgets. Real estate taxes and thus maintenance are also likely to be cheaper in
Have one couple especially in mind, both from NYC. Want a place to bring up kids, etc. Had been keeping eye on market for last several years. Decided to purchase maybe 10 months ago. Saw that things were starting to rise much above what they expected and so they waited. About a month ago they decided that things were only getting much more difficult so jumped in moe aggressively. They had offer accepted a few weeks ago. Had to step down in neighborhood and more than asking. A few others are looking, but I would say more aggressively now as the prices for first time buyers are going up everywhere and fast.
All of them describe crazy turnouts for open houses that quickly turns into multiple offers. These are all young professionals, good jobs.
Thank you very much for your helpful information. I noticed a real uptick in buyer interest
starting mid-late February in something U was selling at the time.
RealEstateNY and rb345: I agree in general with what you say regarding that east of 3rd is quieter.
The major quality of life issue is that by 2nd (and more so for 1st) you then have a much longer and far more inconvenient walk to the subway (and when it's pouring rain, or it's frigid out, that matters). I think if you keep it along Lex or Third, that specific issue improves - drastically.
And I might add, that many buildings over by 1st trade at a higher psf price than those by 3rd or Lex (assuming the buildings to of a more or less comparable style/type).
And many of those buildings seem to have very high down payment requirements
1. you might be right about price/sqft and down payments for buildings around 1st and 2nd Avenue
2. I dont track that market and am not familiar with specific building pricing
Plus, there is a new Whole Foods there, that should turn things around.
Ottawanyc - If you are saying that UES and UWS are less valued by buyers, I'd have to respectfully disagree with you as to UWS (I'm unfamiliar with UES). As soon as the 20-somethings get older, marry and have kids, where do they want to move? My recent apt search extended from UWS down to SoHo and I got the sense that the UWS was on par price-wise with many prime downtown neighborhoods, not to say all, but many. I am in contract for a place on the UWS (so I could be a little biased) and I certainly feel like I'm paying for the location.
Prime downtown has appreciated more than prime UWS (once you take out outliers like 15CPW).
Here's another shocking listing: a 1BR at the Chelsea Stratus (793 sf) for $1,800,000. Has anyone seen how small the living rooms are at Chelsea Stratus??? Let's not forget how they measure square footage in these new condos, so 793 might even be a stretch. I don't care how expensive the rental market is, why on earth would anyone pay over $2,000/sf?
“If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”
― Herbert Stein, What I Think: Essays on Economics, Politics, & Life
>“If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”
Case in point, Herb Stein is dead.
1. according to the floor plan you linked the bed and living rooms total 435 sq.ft.
2. hard to see how the remainder of the apartment is 358 sq. ft.
3. especially since bathroom and kitchen dont seem particularly large
4. at 793 actual square feet asking price is over $2,250/sq.ft.
5. even if the apartment overlooks the subway entrance at 6th and 23rd
6. and with a telescope enables its owner to see who is in the Starbucks up the street
7. the price is still really frothy
8. to the extent that the omwer gets anything close to 1.8 million
9. he ought to endow a shrine to Ben Bernanke
the bigger they are...
the harder they fall.
I'm with Former Renter, an ask of $1.8MM for a one bedroom apartment whose actual square footage is probably closer to 750 (or less when you deduct walls, common hallways and other areas that magically make their way into the reported square footage of a condo) is patently absurd. Maybe (but only the teeniest maybe) in an iconic building like 15 CPW or the primest Tribeca. But 24th and Sixth Avenue? Much as I love Chelsea, that just ain't gonna happen.
Including walls, you can get may be 675 sq ft. Hard to see it sellng for more than 1.3-1.4mm after factoring in craziness downtown.
Rb, I like #5.
I think the pricing for that unit makes sense. If same unit two floors up hasn't sold the rational thing is to price it 300,000 more. No?
Nyc10023 - that may be the case, but my point is about pricing, not price appreciation. Ottawanyc equated price with desirability and desirability with where young people want to live and/or hang out, essentially dismissing the impact of other demographics. Per his (or her) logic, all the downtown areas where the young people go would be more expensive than the UWS and it's pretty clear that this is not the case.
AR, I don't find SWE's posting style particularly irritating. Maybe you mean something other than its form.
The 6th/24th property's ask reflects The Fairway Premium. Thirty highly-qualified cash bidders will fight each other to the quick to pay over the ask.
>AR, I don't find SWE's posting style particularly irritating. Maybe you mean something other than its form.
It's pretty bad.
AR = greensdale
I just know 10022 is a great poster when I read this comment from way out on the autism spectrum:
about 4 years ago
Member since: Dec 2007
ignore this person
Eddie, have you not picked up on the trend here - everyone thinks you are a jackass who adds nothing to the boards
i enjoy elsewhere's hissy bitchiness. not kidding.
Redpanda, I was commenting specifically on why certain areas are surging. I think the notion that the UWS is a place where folks look to bring up small children is slightly antiquated. Reminds me of the article a few weeks ago in NY Times about the NORCs. Maybe a better place to retire. I am sure many still make that choice and it is a lovely neighborhood, but I do not think it is usually a number of one choice anymore. Moving to UWS seems more like a responsible and sensible thing to do when you get older, not something you aspire to do.
I think a great sign of a neighborhood being boring is when it is attached to the phrase, "a great place to raise kids/retire." But again, great area, have friends who live there, but these are the type of people who wake up at 6 am to go the gym and then work 12 hours.
you are paying for one of the best nabes in the city, redpanda, for your purpose: to raise children there.
uws and ues have more, better schools, kids' programs, parks, and kids than any other nabes in the city.
Now if you want hipster, move to bburg. you want highline mall, move to chelsea. and families do. but these hoods clearly lack good schools and facilities for kids that exist in the nabes with legacy of accomodating faMILIES.
some will go nuts that blah blah school on les is so great, and that their toddler loves the art and bar/restaurant scene--but the highest concentration of the best schools and kid-specific programs in the city is on ues and uws
take your kid for a long walk in cp in the snow--it's gorgeous
Let me get this right... using anecdotal LISTING prices as evidence of anything?
Pretty pathetic bull case...
Ottawanyc - I agree that UWS is not the most exciting of neighborhoods, but UWS as a place to bring up small children being an antiquated notion really baffles me. I've never heard of this nor for that matter of any other neighborhood (other than UES, of course) as rivaling UWS in this regard. If you know of such an area, do let me know as I'm truly curious.
What I have found among my friends who stuck it through here for several years is that as fresh-faced newcomers, they aspire to live downtown in the middle of the action, and after a few years, the sheen of downtown living has worn off and while they still want to hang out there, they'd rather live someplace else. The UWS has Central Park and becomes an easy first choice for many.
Yikes - my sentiments exactly :)
like the stock market there will be peaks and valleys in the real estate market. However it moves much much slower. You can see things turning around, or when you read about a rezoning happening, or when you see a new store that was once only in the city etc... The trends are obvious and easy to spot. Its not rocket science, if you have a feeling that an area is changing because you are now going there, then your right. Invest in it, gains are only made with some risk involved. If you are waiting for nytimes to run an article to confirm this area is the new hip area to buy in, your too late for the big gains.
"Mkt is what it is...we're selling into the run up."
Signing off W64thstreet
1. we users of Streeteasy welcome you as its latest troll
2. the requirements of trolling here are an IQ under 10 or the common sense of a doorknob
3. so far you seem well qualified under either standard
Robert, have you had a lot of conversations with doorknobs?
1. I have not had a lot of conversations with doorknobs
2. however, unlike you, I also dont have sexual fantasies about doorknobs
Not a lot of conversations with doorknobs, but still a few, every so often?