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Are we at the bottom yet?
Or prices going to continue to fall?
My daddy left me 6.4K in cash and I've been waiting to use it as a down-payment for an apartment in the upper west side.
Can't wait until we get that 40% drop.....
With 6.4 mill you might be able to afford a studio real far uptown. As long as you
dont mind an apartment whose toilet is on the far side of the interior courtyard window
Feels good, doesn't it Ericho. The bear cheerleaders deserve every last bit of it.
What a joke!!
Still waiting for the bottom? HAA, Haaa! ha, haaaa Haaa LOL. Always buy when everyone else is selling; and sell when everyone else is buying. I suspect if one is 20 - 30 years old one might possibly have one more crisis of epic proportions seen in 4Q2008/1Q2009. When you see that again, you have hit bottom. But as far as the "bottom" that was 4 years ago...
"One more crises" during one's lifetime, that is...
>But as far as the "bottom" that was 4 years ago...
So is this the top?
fwiw, the leader of the bears stevjhwkx (sp?) has been priced out and moved to FL..
wish him well genuinely, but some of his older posts made it almost seem that we'd be in the same sentence as phoenix..
at least not Wayne, NJ.
yes, SoFlo is the 6th boroygh, wayne nj the 7th apparently
Greensdale: not the top, yet. Last top was 2000/2001, but that was just a cyclical top.
I've said this before on this site and will say this again: Manhattan prime is different.
Also, there are cyclical troughs and peaks, and there are once-in-a-lifetime peaks and bottoms. The Great Depression and the more recent Great Recession were not cyclical bottoms, they were extraordinary events.
Take care, Hunter.
OGHair: Do you think another extraordinary event is not possible when we are at a point in economic history that has never been traversed before. There has never been this much money printing by central banks, there has never been such manipulation of interest rates and markets. Do you think Manhattan prime can survive another distorted event like 2008.
RE is a very illiquid investment. We have seen how the rest of the country has been hobbled by being tied to illiquid real estate when the equity market tanks. Here is one of the great investors of all times, a very sober, non conspiratorial investor, Stan Druckenmiller on the mal event that he is certain will take place. The interesting thing is that his view is shared by politically and economically disparate thinkers such as Ray Dalio and Kyle Bass as well as bears such as Nouriel Roubini and Marc Faber. They all believe the unwind of the Feds manipulation of rates will end badly. Are you sure you want to buy into the top of the RE market in Manhattan which is coinciding with the top of the equity market. If you get caught up in a major downturn, the real meaning of illiquid markets could create a serious downturn in Manhattan in spite of the foreign money that has been propping it up.
Apt23: Sure hyperinflation could possibly happen. If it does, hard assets including gold and real estate work for me. As a percentage of my total worth, I have a little of both. By the way, Ray Dalio is brilliant. Paulson and his gold trade to exploit the view you are suggestion, is looking not as smart at this point.
PS: I have a 3.625%, 30 year fixed, so bring on the inflation... I'll pay off the puppy with cheap money!!!!
as druckenmiller says -- inflation may be one end. but the other conceivable end is a mal event (his words) in the stock markets like 2008 in which case RE prices would tumble along with the stock market. in that particular case of events, you would not be protected from a downturn.
ray dalio however believes the rates will go up by the end of this year druckenmiller says that at the first sniff of rates rising, stocks will tank as everyone heads for the exits. and none of that accounts for any black swan event.
>Take care, Hunter.
Ungrey oldgreyhair: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/31223-who-killed-the-board
Apt23: those perspectives by Druvkenmiller, Dalio, Roubini are all well and good. And wouldn't even attempt to refute them. (All I need to do is compare my W-2 with theirs and I know I'm out of my league). But the real question you need to ask yourself (if you do believe their position is correct), what do I as an individual need to do in my personal life. Do you really think that Duckenmiller has positioned his personal life by renting a studio apartment in Hamilton Heights because he fears the real estate collapse he's predicting; or Dalio is renting a 2BR ranch in Bridgeport, so he can be a close drive to his office in Westport; or Roubini insists on some NYU faculty apartment so that he is not exposed to real estate risk? OF COURSE NOT! I know you would not believe it. So while those prediction may possibly come true (or maybe not), by their actions they have prudently invested in real estate at an amount that is appropriate to their balance sheet. I am sure however that they have positioned their clients accounts to exploit their viewpoint. As I said, maybe Paulson went overboard on his gold position, wasn't he down 26% in Year to date? As I said before, my 30 year fixed financing is an imperfect hedge for a hyperinflation scenario.
Peter Schiff is renting his house in Ct. Jim Rogers sold his Manhattan apartment and moved to Singapore
Jim rogers didnt move to singapore becuase ue though manhattan was overpriced. he a firm beliver in that the East is the future.
that was terrible typing
That was exactly why Rogers left
Rogers believed RE in manhattan was a bubble
Rogers has said many times he moved to Singapore primary so his children could learn the Chinese culture and Mandarin. As for Schiff, good for him. I am sure the rental dynamics in Fairfeld Co CT are very different than Manhattan. With gold and rental, he has found the perfect hedge for his upcoming disaster.
Right, he did say that many times as he has said he thought Manhattan RE was in a bubble had no future. He thought the future was in the Far East thus wanted his kids to learn Mandarin.
Oldgrayhair this just refutes your point that professional investors don't put their money where their month is. They infact do. I pointed out 2 blatant examples so move on.
The below is from another thread. If someone really has that strong of a view on bonds, just short them. I have not had any bonds in the portfolio for a while as rate rise scenario is real but do not think the same can be said about people who are waiting for real estate to crash due to rate rise. I get the argument that "I can always make 8-10 percent returns in other asset classes, and do not mind being a nomad in the meantime" but most people neither make that return over a long cycle not does every one want to move.
All the arguments about rising rates are equally valid for other financial assets. People are still holding bonds with some duration and feeling that their money is safe. However, the rate rise scenario is real. I would be selling bonds before I worry about real estate and equities.
In general, if rates are going up due to growth, real estate and equities can easily handle 2-3 percent rise in fed fund rates and 2 percent rise in ten year rates. Mortgage spreads are going to narrow with economic growth, so net impact on 30 y mortgage will be appx 50 bps less than the 10y rate rise. Also, many people are doing 30y fixed rate mortgage (not me) due to low rates. Assuming, these buyers/ owners with low rates had to sell when the rates are higher, a bigger percentage of buyers will shift to ARM if the rates go up.
Oldgreyhair makes a great point about homes many of the successful investors own. Why did they not rent a comparable apt/home cheaper? Many certainly have a record of making 15-20 percent per year over a long time.
Does he actually know when, if, or where they own or their personal circumstances. I think not.
Brooks: you missed my point, entirely! My point is just because hedge fund managers believes real estate will collapse, doesn't mean personal real estate ownership needs to be avoided. All it means is that in positioning client portfolios their philosophy will be to avoid the asset class (usually commercial and more traded derivititives. In fact many I these bearish managers do have personal real estate on their personal balance sheets. These are simple choices we all have and must make. Time now for you to move on... Goodbye.
300mercer: I agree absolutely. If one has a stong viewpoint, then execute the trade. If one is very bearish on real estate, there are a number of publicly traded REITs than can easily be shorted. In the meantime, stay in a rental in New Jersey. This is what makes a market.
Exactly! Jim Rogers moved. Peter Schiff rents.
Well, oldgreyhair may be making another point as well. Although he says that financial experts don't always put their money where their mouths are, I look at it a different way: There are all kinds of logical reasons to argue the future will be X, but for some reason the future can turn out to be Y instead. Some arguments about how horrible the real estate market will continue to be and how the worst is yet to come are based in commonsense logic and can be supported with data. Problem is....... the predictions don't come to pass.
> Feels good, doesn't it Ericho.
> The bear cheerleaders deserve every last bit of it.
WOW do you have it backward.
Feels great to have been proven right... the bulls certainly have egg on their faces. Ericho was wrong, plain and simple.
And, in terms of bottom... WSJ just came out and noted we are at the lowest point since 2004 in real terms. Means the bottom so far is now... and it might still be getting worse.
Nope. Not in real terms....
Lowery: I was a bear in 2008 (i sold all my RE from 05-07), though not a $500 psf-in-manhattan bear. But I felt it was too high to purchase based on reasonable assertions. It did indeed go down and then proceeded to go up in an irrational way due to Fed and foreign buyers. Instead I used the money I had allotted for a home in investments in Miami RE which was already depressed and the stock market. I just sold my Miami apt at a very good profit because the market is irrational and RE is illiquid. But my liquid assets to buy a home have far outperformed any rise in manhattan RE
I love my current Manhattan apt but I can rent it for far less than I can purchase it. I don't love being a nomad but am not prepared to buy in a market where prices are unreasonable. I believe demographics, rising rates, lower incomes, and black swans will eventually catch up with the manhattan RE market. If it does I will be in a very good state to purchase. If not, I am extremely liquid and nimble and I am sure I can do better in other investments. Predictions don't always come to pass but the ability to take advantage of change is paramount for an investor. I still believe a home is an investment -- especially at these prices.
I am currently considering the purchase of a mansion in the country with a lot a acreage -- all for the price of a low end two bedroom apt in Manhattan. How long can that kind of disconnect in value be sustained.
old grey: I can assure you that those investors did not buy their real estate in the midst of a bubble. Since 2000, manhattan has experienced an unprecedented historical pricing bubble. Bubbles always revert to the mean though it does take time. In the meantime, I find it amazing that lemmings race into the market so they will not be priced out. For example, this came to market today. Purchase price in 2006 was under 4mm now asking 7 mm. What exactly is the world economic picture could support that kind of price appreciation?
oops forgot the post http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/831146-condo-240-riverside-boulevard-lincoln-square-new-york
>> In general, if rates are going up due to growth, real estate and equities can easily handle 2-3 percent rise in fed fund rates and 2 percent rise in ten year rates.
300: The point of alarm with investors like druckenmiller, daiio, etc is that rates will not go up because of growth. we are not growing at a rate to cover the money printing. If we were growing at 3- 4%, there would not be alarm, only frustration and irritation. But rates could go up for a number of reasons including black swans. If there is a pop in the Chinese RE bubble in the next few years (Jim Chanos says it will be earlier) and China sells US treasuries, that would not be a good thing.
old grey: at the top of the crazy bubble in 2008, that apt was on the market for $7,350.000. the fact that roubini purchased it for $5,450,000 seems like he did not buy at top of bubble. also, he was virtually kicked out of his last place because he is a notorious party monster and the building changed its party policies because of him. So, when sex is a prime motivating factor for purchasing real estate, you have to view this purchase as a outlier.
Roubini does not manage money. He is an economist.
Apt23, you missed my main point. I believe that rate rise scenario is real and it will be bad for all financial assets besides cash if 10 y rates rise more than 2 percent with less than 2 percent growth? I only give it less than 5 percent probability. So, does one sit in cash due to this. At least real estate gives you an opportunity to lock in a large percentage of living cost at the current low rates. There are no other offers to lock in rent inflation.
Apt23, glad you did well with miami real estate.
Thanks 300. Yes it is all a conundrum. I feel certain that we, the world, will not escape this excessive printing without a major hiccup somewhere. And given the tenor of our govt and the sad state of our demographic future, I think Americans will not escape unscathed. But what will it be: deflation or inflation? So far, I have tampered rent inflation through the kindness of Mr. Bernanke. My investments have more than compensated for my increased rent. When Mr B reverses himself, then a new plan is in order.
The rest of us can only wonder what it is like to be afraid of your own shadow.
I believe everyone on this board knows that greensdale is huntersburg a notorious stalker. And truth was reprimanded by SE for printing comments about sex with children but agreed that she would not engage in attacks on posters. So now we know she is also incapable of telling the truth.
if your own shadow is your "notorious" stalker, why do you need anyone else?
>And truth was reprimanded by SE for printing comments about ...
what kind of person would even continue typing that sentence. Disgusting and despicable behavior.
why don't you explain why you changed your name from hunters burg?
c0lumbiac0unty, none of what you want to talk about absolves you for the hurt you've caused your family, your friends, your neighbors, and the people you've done business with. Your convenient nasty personality here online can't be a virtual or real life distraction for your own dire failings and all of the damage you've caused.
why are you ashamed of being huntersburg? what's wrong?
you've always been sad, angry, life-hating, deceptive, and hurtful, but what has made you become even worse lately?
so sad for you. why are you so ashamed? why the need to change names so often. what are you hiding?
>why the need to change names so often
why are you ashamed of being huntersburg? what's wrong?
C0C0, none of this will help you earn money to continue to pay reparations.
Did you ever learn what shame actually means? How can you go on given the massive number of people close to you that you've hurt?
do facts matter to you? why have you changed your name from hunters burg?
do facts matter to me?
What a stupid question.
so...why did you change your name from hunters burg?
why did you hurt so many people for personal gain?
what are you hiding? why the name change?
>what are you hiding? why the name change?
What's wrong with a name change?
Wbottom was Ubottom and later became yikes
Aboutready tested a few names
EddieWilson has a long history
and so many others have changed their names to no fanfare.
Does a name change offense your righteousness, despite all you've done to hurt so many people in real life?
"He thought the future was in the Far East thus wanted his kids to learn Mandarin."
Sounds like a nut to me.
trouche is SE's official loser.
My broker just called me and told me i needed another 300K more for that 1.5 million dollar co-op i wanted to buy. I thought prices are going down? Why is he asking me for almost 2x more for down payment?
In 2009, i could had bought this unit for 1.1 million on West 64th street. Is my broker a liar?
but ericho, you live in LIC--are you planning to move to a coop in manhattan?
have the fumes of newtown creek finally gotten to you?
or are you trading up in LIC? jeez you bot not so long ago. to sell now, it will be tough to recoup all your costs. yikes 6%, mortgage recording tax--you know, all that stuff.