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http://streeteasy.com/talk/discussion/34257-still-waiting-for-the-bottom
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Still waiting for the 'bottom'
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Are we at the bottom yet?
Or prices going to continue to fall?

My daddy left me 6.4K in cash and I've been waiting to use it as a down-payment for an apartment in the upper west side.

Can't wait until we get that 40% drop.....

Signing off...
W64thstreet

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Feels good, doesn't it Ericho. The bear cheerleaders deserve every last bit of it.

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Still waiting for the bottom? HAA, Haaa! ha, haaaa Haaa LOL. Always buy when everyone else is selling; and sell when everyone else is buying. I suspect if one is 20 - 30 years old one might possibly have one more crisis of epic proportions seen in 4Q2008/1Q2009. When you see that again, you have hit bottom. But as far as the "bottom" that was 4 years ago...

"One more crises" during one's lifetime, that is...

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fwiw, the leader of the bears stevjhwkx (sp?) has been priced out and moved to FL..

wish him well genuinely, but some of his older posts made it almost seem that we'd be in the same sentence as phoenix..

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yes, SoFlo is the 6th boroygh, wayne nj the 7th apparently

borough*

Greensdale: not the top, yet. Last top was 2000/2001, but that was just a cyclical top.

I've said this before on this site and will say this again: Manhattan prime is different.

Also, there are cyclical troughs and peaks, and there are once-in-a-lifetime peaks and bottoms. The Great Depression and the more recent Great Recession were not cyclical bottoms, they were extraordinary events.

Take care, Hunter.

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Apt23: Sure hyperinflation could possibly happen. If it does, hard assets including gold and real estate work for me. As a percentage of my total worth, I have a little of both. By the way, Ray Dalio is brilliant. Paulson and his gold trade to exploit the view you are suggestion, is looking not as smart at this point.

PS: I have a 3.625%, 30 year fixed, so bring on the inflation... I'll pay off the puppy with cheap money!!!!

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Apt23: those perspectives by Druvkenmiller, Dalio, Roubini are all well and good. And wouldn't even attempt to refute them. (All I need to do is compare my W-2 with theirs and I know I'm out of my league). But the real question you need to ask yourself (if you do believe their position is correct), what do I as an individual need to do in my personal life. Do you really think that Duckenmiller has positioned his personal life by renting a studio apartment in Hamilton Heights because he fears the real estate collapse he's predicting; or Dalio is renting a 2BR ranch in Bridgeport, so he can be a close drive to his office in Westport; or Roubini insists on some NYU faculty apartment so that he is not exposed to real estate risk? OF COURSE NOT! I know you would not believe it. So while those prediction may possibly come true (or maybe not), by their actions they have prudently invested in real estate at an amount that is appropriate to their balance sheet. I am sure however that they have positioned their clients accounts to exploit their viewpoint. As I said, maybe Paulson went overboard on his gold position, wasn't he down 26% in Year to date? As I said before, my 30 year fixed financing is an imperfect hedge for a hyperinflation scenario.

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Jim rogers didnt move to singapore becuase ue though manhattan was overpriced. he a firm beliver in that the East is the future.

that was terrible typing

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Rogers has said many times he moved to Singapore primary so his children could learn the Chinese culture and Mandarin. As for Schiff, good for him. I am sure the rental dynamics in Fairfeld Co CT are very different than Manhattan. With gold and rental, he has found the perfect hedge for his upcoming disaster.

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The below is from another thread. If someone really has that strong of a view on bonds, just short them. I have not had any bonds in the portfolio for a while as rate rise scenario is real but do not think the same can be said about people who are waiting for real estate to crash due to rate rise. I get the argument that "I can always make 8-10 percent returns in other asset classes, and do not mind being a nomad in the meantime" but most people neither make that return over a long cycle not does every one want to move.

__________
All the arguments about rising rates are equally valid for other financial assets. People are still holding bonds with some duration and feeling that their money is safe. However, the rate rise scenario is real. I would be selling bonds before I worry about real estate and equities.

In general, if rates are going up due to growth, real estate and equities can easily handle 2-3 percent rise in fed fund rates and 2 percent rise in ten year rates. Mortgage spreads are going to narrow with economic growth, so net impact on 30 y mortgage will be appx 50 bps less than the 10y rate rise. Also, many people are doing 30y fixed rate mortgage (not me) due to low rates. Assuming, these buyers/ owners with low rates had to sell when the rates are higher, a bigger percentage of buyers will shift to ARM if the rates go up.

Oldgreyhair makes a great point about homes many of the successful investors own. Why did they not rent a comparable apt/home cheaper? Many certainly have a record of making 15-20 percent per year over a long time.

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Brooks: you missed my point, entirely! My point is just because hedge fund managers believes real estate will collapse, doesn't mean personal real estate ownership needs to be avoided. All it means is that in positioning client portfolios their philosophy will be to avoid the asset class (usually commercial and more traded derivititives. In fact many I these bearish managers do have personal real estate on their personal balance sheets. These are simple choices we all have and must make. Time now for you to move on... Goodbye.

300mercer: I agree absolutely. If one has a stong viewpoint, then execute the trade. If one is very bearish on real estate, there are a number of publicly traded REITs than can easily be shorted. In the meantime, stay in a rental in New Jersey. This is what makes a market.

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Well, oldgreyhair may be making another point as well. Although he says that financial experts don't always put their money where their mouths are, I look at it a different way: There are all kinds of logical reasons to argue the future will be X, but for some reason the future can turn out to be Y instead. Some arguments about how horrible the real estate market will continue to be and how the worst is yet to come are based in commonsense logic and can be supported with data. Problem is....... the predictions don't come to pass.

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Apt23, you missed my main point. I believe that rate rise scenario is real and it will be bad for all financial assets besides cash if 10 y rates rise more than 2 percent with less than 2 percent growth? I only give it less than 5 percent probability. So, does one sit in cash due to this. At least real estate gives you an opportunity to lock in a large percentage of living cost at the current low rates. There are no other offers to lock in rent inflation.

Apt23, glad you did well with miami real estate.

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"He thought the future was in the Far East thus wanted his kids to learn Mandarin."

Sounds like a nut to me.

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My broker just called me and told me i needed another 300K more for that 1.5 million dollar co-op i wanted to buy. I thought prices are going down? Why is he asking me for almost 2x more for down payment?
In 2009, i could had bought this unit for 1.1 million on West 64th street. Is my broker a liar?

signing off,
W64thstreet

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