Crime in NY continues downward trend

Chelsea and West Village don't have high rates of serious crime. There aren't people running around with guns. Property crimes aren't what Stop and Frisk is meant to cover.

who monitors your crimes?

I think the City is still pretty safe, as long as you don't go uptown, to the really dangerous places like Harlem and Washington Heights.

Washington Heights has a lower violent crime rate than the West Village.

Yeah, whatever ... the West Village is still MUCH safer than Washington Heights and Harlem. And everybody knows it.

>jason10006
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Washington Heights has a lower violent crime rate than the West Village.

How do you know this from your ZIP Code 10006 in the financial district of Manhattan?

http://nypress.com/just-how-safe-is-christopher-street/
Village residents say violence is up in the area, and not enough is being done to stop it

Please do not vote for De Blasio ....he will make the situation worse...NYC will go back to how it was in the 1970s and 1980s. High crime, welfare central.

You forgot to mention Buckwheat hairdos for everyone. Now shut up and go get your hair fro'd.

De Blasio worked for Dinkins during his administration

And you? How did you serve this city during its difficult times?

Dinkins had Ray Kelly as Commissioner. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raymond_Kelly
Dinkins also started Safe Streets, Safe City. http://www.nytimes.com/1996/01/27/nyregion/news-analysis-giuliani-credits-strategy-for-the-city-s-safer-streets.html

Rarely do I agree with fc/hb/gb but this is one time. Scared, you are unreasonably paranoid. Dinkins definitely was the trailblazer in the NYC anti-crime wars. Rudy was an ass. I have mixed feelings about Bloomberg, probably 50/50.

Crime is down in every large US city for the past decade and many by more than NYC.

So my point scarednycgal, is that De Blasio will be bad on his own merits.

Scarednygal did you happen to live in NYC in the 70s and 80s? In many ways it was much better than today, and yes in many ways worse. There were places you "just didn't go" and taking the subway after 7 or 8 was frowned on (but done by many people without harm). Yes you had to look out, and be wary on the streets and if like me, you lived in ground floor apartment bars on the windows were a must.

But at least you didn't have to deal with crowds of tourists everywhere. There was an authentic vibrancy that had nothing to do with how much money you had. Apartments weren't taken up with people whose parents bought it for them or paid the rent, so young people had a shot a getting an affordable place even if they had entry level jobs that weren't in big law or finance. Everywhere hadn't been rezoned for luxury condos, there were still remnants of the garment district, the port, the Fulton Fish Market, the Meat Market...places that provided real jobs for working people.

It was a marvelous time and place to be young and if you had to be a little aware of your surroundings and rough around the edges, you were a better person for it.

I agree in being no fan of Dinkins but his New York was more real and more fun than Emperor Bloomberg's.

Crime increased in every large American city for 30 years or so starting in the late 50s and has decreased in every large American city starting 20-25 years ago. People have this silly fantasy that Dinkins had anything to do with this, or even Rudy. Crime STARTED to decline under Dinkins, but at the same time it was declining in LA, SF, Chicago, Seattle, etc. It went down by more than in other circles under Rudy, but since then, other cities have surpassed NYC as the safest large city. We were briefly THE safest. Now we are like #8. But crime has gone down in every large city for the past 20 years, 10 year, and 5 years. There was not some terrible thing happening IN JUST NYC in the 70s, nor some magic thing JUST in NYC in the past 20 years.

So smartypants10006, which cities are safer than NY?

You don't have google, fieldchester (which is what, your third or fourth name so far on these boards?)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_cities_by_crime_rate#2011_data

Whatever Los Angeles, San Jose, San Diego, and Fort Worth are doing, they are safer than NYC in terms of violent crime. Along with several other cities. Our lower overall crime rate (still only #8) is only because we are #3 safest for property crimes.

Oh, and they do NOT do stop and frisk in all of the above.

Even the FBI disavows use of that data.
But if you look at the areas of NYC where most of us spend our time, people are not being frisked and aren't victims of violent crime.
The Christopher Street crime is an interesting example of our tolerance for importing crime via the NJ PATH.

"Even the FBI disavows use of that data."

No they most certainly do not. Show an FBI official saying that.

And Rudy, Kelly, and Bloomberg plus everyone else is ALWAYS citing the FBI stats when touting how much safer NYC is than it used to be, or how safe it is versus other cities. This is the one common set of data used by all cities.

You cannot simply disavow the stats because they are SAME stats NYC officially uses about itself.

Its like saying the thermostat must be broken because you are sure its really 100 degrees outside right now.

From your own Wikipedia link: "The FBI web site recommends against using its data for ranking because these rankings lead to simplistic and/or incomplete analyses that often create misleading perceptions adversely affecting cities and counties, along with their residents. The FBI web site also recommends against using its data to judge how effective law enforcement agencies are, since there are many factors that influence crime rates other than law enforcement.

In November 2007, the executive board of the American Society of Criminology (ASC) went further than the FBI itself, and approved a resolution opposing not only the use of the ratings to judge police departments, but also opposing any development of city crime rankings from FBI Uniform Crime Reports (UCRs) at all. The resolution opposed these rankings on the grounds that they "fail to account for the many conditions affecting crime rates" and "divert attention from the individual and community characteristics that elevate crime in all cities", though it did not provide sources or further elaborate on these claims. The resolution states the rankings "represent an irresponsible misuse of the data and do groundless harm to many communities" and "work against a key goal of our society, which is a better understanding of crime-related issues by both scientists and the public".

The U.S. Conference of Mayors passed a similar statement, which also committed the Conference to working with the FBI and the U.S. Department of Justice "to educate reporters, elected officials, and citizens on what the (UCR) data means and doesn't mean.""

>And Rudy, Kelly, and Bloomberg plus everyone else is ALWAYS citing the FBI stats when touting how much safer NYC is than it used to be, or how safe it is versus other cities. This is the one common set of data used by all cities.

If you use the same methodology year over year, then it is legitimately comparable to evidence the reduction in crime within a given city.
To use it across cities where methodologies differ, read the FBI and ASC comments above.

>Its like saying the thermostat must be broken because you are sure its really 100 degrees outside right now.

Not sure what crime stats over time and across cities has to do with the temperature in one place at one period of time.

Bloomberg: "New York is the safest big city in the nation, and our crime reductions have been steeper than any other big city’s,"

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/michael-bloomberg-stop-and-frisk-keeps-new-york-safe/2013/08/18/8d4cd8c4-06cf-11e3-9259-e2aafe5a5f84_story.html

See also http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2013/aug/26/michael-bloomberg/michael-bloomberg-says-new-york-safest-big-city-us/

Even the fact checkers use FB1 stats to back up Bloombergs statement, which itself is based on the crime stats. Every time Kelly or Rudy cite the same sort of comparison of NYC to other cities, they are using FBi stats.

So, NYC is safe. What was the point you were trying to convey?

Yes. Except, obviously, way uptown -- Harlem, Washington Heights, and Hamilton Heights. Not safe.

These neighborhoods: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/36461-bloomberg-most-crime-in-se-bronx-central-bklyn

Streeteasy posters: what are your theories on why the crime rate is so much lower than in the 1970s through 1990s? Some ideas:

1. Better law enforcement and more police presence
2. Broken window theory: prosecute more minor offenses on the theory that felons also tend to commit misdemeanors.
3. Aging population: people commit less crime as they get older.
4. Gentrification: people who can afford 10-million dollar condos tend to not commit street crime (though arguably they tend to commit more white-collar crime). People who commit crime have been priced out of major swaths of NYC and have moved elsewhere.
5. The individuals responsible for the crime wave of the 1970s through 1990s (and responsible for thousands of deaths) are incarcerated, no longer live in NYC, or are dead.
6. Lower drug use; no heroin or crack epidemic
7. Better parenting, teaching children right from wrong.
8. Unconventional theories such as abortion being legalized and leaded gasoline being outlawed.

Could another crime wave occur in NYC, or is it a thing of the past? If crime were to make a comeback, would condo/co-op prices and rents decrease to a significant extent?

>Unconventional theories such as abortion being legalized

Why is this an unconventional theory?

Also, what is the teen pregnancy rate today vs before?

Do we have better racial tolerance?

Higher caliber weapons and generally stronger police?

Stop and frisk?

NYPD community involvement?

Longer sentences?

Better NYC fiscal position?

9d8b7988045e4953a882, some of these cannot be particularly likely, given that the social trends (aging population, et cetera) are national. And that some cities, particularly in the Sun Belt, have become hotbeds of drug use (meth and Rx opioids) and crime of all sorts, but particularly burglaries and car theft.

meth is good alan, that's the point of the popular show Breaking Bad.

http://news.yahoo.com/knockout-game-sucker-punches-turned-deadly-202321752.html

I can't wait for one of these punks to get shot and killed.

http://www.reddit.com/r/offbeat/comments/1rdhbd/knockout_game_turns_deadly_60_year_old_woman/

http://manhattanda.org/press-release/da-vance-106-defendants-including-80-nypd-and-fdny-retirees-indicted-social-security-d