Why do we settle?

You could move to Roosevelt Island instead: http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/12459-lic-getting-more-great-new-waterfront-parks

unfortunately, in good parts of NJ, you're stuck with the same problem.

the problem with Roosevelt Island is that you are stuck on the island and need a Train or tram to get you off. If they had a walk bridge that place would be amazing.

Wait until the shadow inventory gets marked down!

Topper,
Whats the shadow inventory?

hey, at least Roosevelt Island is not Stinky, sorry Staten, Island. no matter where you go, you pay, unless you want a 2-3 hr commute to something worthwhile.

Roosevelt Island has 70%subsidized housing. The new condos make them the most expensive apts on the Island.

The "shadow inventory" is all the new construction that has not been released to the market. After a building is completed, the sponsor typically just releases a few apartments to the market in order not to create too much supply. Even that limited supply is not selling well as there have been relatively few price cuts. That shadow inventory has been building up and has been estimated to be in the area of 5,000 to 7,000 units - and growing. Eventually, sponsors are likely to feel enormous pressure from their banks to pay back their construction loans and then the bubble will burst.

Patience.

We settle because people with more money want the same things we do.

Topper, Any idea of when the shadow inventory will come on market? 6 months, 1 year, 3 years?

it starts off one boob is bigger than the other and we start thinking...should I settle? Then time goes by and we start thinking hey, varity is the spice of life so you go for the boobs and you tell yourself you love them and..............you do. Some time passes and one night your looking at those for the zillionth time and it hits you...................I could have rented!

We settle because we have to. You know, almost no matter what your budget is, you have to settle. Just like people who want to spend $500,000 want $650,000 apartments, people who can spend 1,000,000 want $1,300,000 apartments all the way up to people who can spend $6,000,000 want $8,000,000 apartments. It's always been that way.

Amen 30yrs

Quote of the day:

"She sometimes felt, as she climbed the worn linoleum-covered stairs, that she was worthy of a more gracious setting, but then there are few of us who do not occasionally set a higher value on ourselves than Fate has done." ---- Barbara Pym

"the problem with Roosevelt Island is that you are stuck on the island and need a Train or tram to get you off."

Rossevelt Island has a suway station.

*subway station*

I settled when I moved into my current rental. I wanted a classic 8 in mint condition on Park Avenue, but that was out of my price range so I settled for a 1 bedroom apt. in Hell's Kitchen.

from what I understand the subway at RI does not run enough and is usually very crowded.

No, Alpine. You settled for WANTING a 1 BR in HK. You settled for LIVING IN a little housey in Nawth Joisey.

i thought he was living in a mini-van

lol. I thought he lived in a subway car. Hi aboutready! How is Europe?

europe is grand, but the place we are in right now has subpar AC and it's four in the morning and i can't sleep. we go to nice today, and we are renting an apartment, so i have high hopes for decent AC. the rest of the team is sleeping like babies.

i think the problem is that too many people did NOT settle. they overreached, and the banks assisted.

good point. New guidelines - your mortgage should be only 1X yearly income. I remmber the same problem with the AC and with ice. They think we are spoiled.

Even if one cannot afford a large space, they could and should be built to be functional. So much of the inventory sucks in this city and we accept it b / c we all want to be here. I could live like a king anywhere else for a million. Born and raised in this town, and it is getting more and more frustrating. I am tired of listening to brokers tell me that if I stick by butt out of the window I could see the park.

I expect most new construction will be finished by the middle of next year. So lots of additions to the shadow inventory. I expect that things won't get really nasty until the end of next year when the banks finally lose patience and finally push the developers to cut bait.

This ain't gonna go quickly. Alas. So keep your powder dry.

topper, i can't recall where i read it, but someone was writing about the "pretend and extend" nature of bank lending today. banks are extending loans and just pretending that the borrowers will be able to repay in the future, hoping that it may happen if all those "green shoots" are correct. they don't want to mark down the loan values. at some point, of course, the loan becomes obviously non-performing, and the bank is obligated to write it off. just delaying the inevitable, and making it worse as they change the terms of the loans to be more generous (IO, for example) to the borrowers.

You got it, aboutready.

"Pretend and extend."

A variation on "mark-to-make-believe."

Can we just grow out of it as the "green shoots" bloom? I'm skeptical. Prices, particularly on new construction, are just too far out of whack with basic valuation standards/requirements like price/rent ratios, price/income ratios.

My best guess is that "pretend and extend" won't start to fall apart until late 2010.

Enjoy your rental. Build up your nest egg. Should be a fascinating eighteen months - including lots of false starts.

"I could live like a king anywhere else for a million."

So then move and stop complaining. Go to Dallas. You can buy a 6,000 square foot house on a large lot for under $600k.

"I could live like a king anywhere else for a million."

Here King, here King, oh your such a good boy! good boy, good boy.
Now....fetch!

Even Prince Akeem (Eddie Murphy) preferred to live in a run down tenement in Queens rather than be King of Zamunda.

Topper: thanks for being helpful. The President must be a broker who serves the KoolAid to schmucks that drink it.