55% of New Yorkers won't

The population is growing in the last few years, as outflows are less than inflows.
ww.nytimes.com/2025/03/13/nyregion/nyc-population-2024.html

What is the combined income of those leaving vs those coming? If a lot of wealthy/affluent leave NYC permanently and they are replaced with lower income people, who exactly will Mamdani (if he is elected) tax to fund his socialist agenda and freebies? Again I hate to point out the obvious, but states like Florida and Texas have zero state income tax. We can debate NYC vs. Miami or Houston all day long, but at the end of the day, if you’re making over $1 million a year, you save a tremendous amount by leaving NY for these and other states. Many of the people who voted for Mamdani yesterday simply don’t get it…the wealthy are are very mobile.

I can't imagine all those wealthy people leaving NYC wouldn't have an impact on RE prices.

Maybe that's how he will deliver on the campaign promise to make the city more affordable LOL

It would impact RE prices at the high end and probably do nothing to make housing more affordable for medium and low income renters. His idea to freeze rents could result in more spare capacity at the low end.

How could low income people move here if housing is so expensive? I'm wondering how many private homes would be converted to flop houses.

This is a *possibility*:
The high upper end falls apart
New projects heavily loaded with large units go bust and no one will complete then because there is no market for those units.
Developers pick them up cheap because the construction lenders need to dump unsellable REO and either totally rework the building into smaller units or find ways of creatively splitting very large units into several smaller ones. Note: this happened all over the place during the depression when co-ops with large units went bust and turned into rentals at the new owners split classic sixes, sevens, eights, nines, etc into somewhat oddly laid out sstudios, one bedrooms etc

Note that in the Perfect Storm scenario of the above the incomplete buildings will be picked up for significantly less than the cost of land acquisition and construction, thus allowing the new developers to offer them at actually affordable numbers.

To give an idea of numbers, at 200 West 20th Street in the first half of 1992 I sold half a dozen bank foreclosure studios between $27,000 and $42,000 which 3 years before in 1989 had sold between $90,000 and $120,000.

@30 it sounds like a painful way to get to affordable housing but maybe. And it certainly wouldn't do much to encourage new projects.

Have read Comrade Zohran doesn't want to issue summones to turnstile jumpers. Way to defund our ailing transit system!

Imagine being a Korean grocer who gets up at 5am to go to Hunts Point with your 13 year old son and works in shifts with other family members till 11 while paying market rate rent. And then a city-run grocery store opens up down the block.

Zohran is the child of two privileged, highly educated professionals. They are supposed to be smart. But because they are privileged they are insulated from the consequences of their hare-brained ideas.

Wow, imagine my shock when learning Mamdani’s father is a Colombia professor.

911turbo,
Check out SBF's

>> if you’re making over $1 million a year, you save a tremendous amount by leaving NY for these and other states

You keep saying that, but you’re missing the counterpoint. If you’re making over $1M a year, maybe you’d rather live where you want to live than have the extra money. When money will help fund the life you desire, your mindset might focus on money because you run out of money before you run out of life (in the form you desire). When you can fund the life you desire, you run out of life before you run out of money.

I looked up NYC income levels in 2012 vs 2017 vs 2022 (which is the latest published). Check out the $1M+ income buckets. The 2017 => 2022 population increase in each income bucket increased meaningfully. But to remove the effect of general income growth, you can compare the rates of increase compared to 2012 => 2022. Slowed down some, but not that much in light of all the following:

- 2018 Federal tax changes, which increased the tax rate for the highest income NYers by ~2.5% or 5% of after-tax income). Federal rates dropped ~2.5%, but loss of SALT increased tax rate by 5%. PTET removed the net increase for the subset of high earners who are pass-through entity business owners and partners, but this wasn’t until 2021.

- 2020 COVID-induced migration, which purportedly had wealthy people leaving in droves

- Additional “temporary” COVID-spurred NY state tax brackets in 2020, increasing top marginal rate by 2% (or 4% after-tax).

Will Mamdani, if he wins, be the straw that broke the camel’s back that leads high income earners to leave in droves? Maybe, but I’m skeptical given the history. If you believe otherwise, I am happy to wager (in any amount you desire, subject to Mamdani winning), the 2027 $1M income buckets will have more people than the 2022 buckets. Care to wager?

https://ibo.nyc.ny.us/RevenueSpending/2012pitdata.xlsx
https://ibo.nyc.ny.us/RevenueSpending/2017pitdata.xlsx
https://ibo.nyc.ny.us/RevenueSpending/2022pitdata.xlsx

@inonada - Good point. If you make 1 million a year and the taxes are getting to you aren't you just looking for a way to leave NY for another reason? There are people making way less who decide to move to NY knowing it's expensive.

Life elsewhere in the US is frictionless - so no headaches, you get what you expect right on time and it's affordable. Going out often involves getting in a car where you don't have to interact with humanity and then appearing where you want to go.

NY is an expensive obstacle course due to its size and density and so many layers of unionized self dealing, but its size and density are also what make it feel way more urban than any other city in the US. It's only beautiful in bits but it is majestic.

Maybe $1 million is too low…the amount you would save on taxes alone on $1 million income might not justify leaving nyc if you are ok with everything else. $1 million is not a a whole lot in NYC and I suspect many people in this income bracket are not quite as mobile as say Ken Griffin or other really wealthy folks. I don’t think politicians are afraid of losing those folk since they are probably more tied down to nyc. But what is the average compensation for Wall Street banker? If you’re making multiple millions per year, then you’re saving quite a bit moving to a no/lower income tax state. Clearly there has been some exodus of wealth from NY to Florida. I absolutely see the counter argument for staying, having lived in NYC and Florida. Will a Socialist being elected mayor be the final straw? I suspect yes but I’m not going to wager on i. Regardless if it happens, I’ll be discussing it with others in another state because it will be the straw that breaks my back. And yes, if Adams is re-elected, I’ll probably stay for another couple years here. He is not perfect but he is better than the alternatives.

https://nypost.com/2025/05/01/us-news/14b-in-income-left-nyc-as-residents-fled-to-florida/

>> But what is the average compensation for Wall Street banker?

Not as high as you might be thinking:

https://www.efinancialcareers.com/news/banker-salaries-new-york

>> If you’re making multiple millions per year, then you’re saving quite a bit moving to a no/lower income tax state.

If you’re making $10M/yr (or whatever you think is the magic bracket), sure you might save $1M/yr in taxes elsewhere. Or you might degrade your ability to earn that $10M/yr. But really, who cares? You’ve probably saved/invested your way to tens of millions of dollars in net worth. That net worth is increasing by (say) $3M a year tax-free if you invest tax-aware (as simple as buying an index fund for tax-free compounding). So sure, you could be doing $9M/yr vs $8M/yr after-tax if you move to . But shouldn’t you just live where you want? You’re going to run out of life before you run out of money, not in a way $1M/yr is going to be the deciding factor.

>> Regardless if it happens, I’ll be discussing it with others in another state because it will be the straw that breaks my back. And yes, if Adams is re-elected, I’ll probably stay for another couple years here.

Sounds a bit hysterical, kinda like the people who said they were going to move to Canada if Trump is elected. For the sake of argument, let’s grant that Mamdani is going to turn NYC into complete shit. Won’t that take some time? Wait until taking office, wait until rent freeze goes into effect, wait until follow-on badness from rent freeze goes into effect, wait until Albany passes tax legislation, wait until year it becomes effective, etc. I bet you’ll have your couple years even if it ends up the complete hellhole you’re imagining. In the meantime, go touch some grass and enjoy it, then leave.

>> If you make 1 million a year and the taxes are getting to you aren't you just looking for a way to leave NY for another reason?

Yes, I think so — like COVID. There’s a group of people who were on the margins of leaving. Their peer group is overrepresented with the same. A trigger shows up (COVID, tax increases), and all of a sudden half the people they know are leaving. It creates a perception of a larger effect than the one that actually exists.

I care more about quality of life. Mamdani will definitely be negative for that. Homeless (who mostly have drug problems) population has already increased a lot prime downtown.

As Nada points out fiscal and wasteful spending take a while for any changes to be felt. But they are cumulative. NYC is dependent on growth to pay it large pension obligation and increased social program spending. And South Florida has taken away some of NYC's growth. Not a great recipe for real estate price increases.

So you combine higher taxes with lower quality of life, many people who have alternative job/business options elsewhere do leave.

https://nypost.com/2025/06/29/us-news/noho-hellscape-opioid-clinic-welcomes-junkies-jabbing-their-necks-and-oding-in-playgrounds-to-posh-nabe/

West 4th St at 6th reminds is like Portland. Clinics like that just concentrate the problem. Addicts flock to them.

What is the most important campaign promise he can deliver on without waiting for Albany? I guess a rent freeze, right?

He can open more methadone clinics and instruct police to not crack down on quality of life crime. Jessica Tisch is trying to do her best to improve quality of life with Eric Adams blessing of course.

I'm seeing more discarded needles/open drug use than previously.

>Jessica Tisch is trying to do her best to improve quality of life with Eric Adams blessing of course.

I think the relationship goes the other way. Tisch had her non-negotiable demands, and Adams knew, she was right and not subject to question.