northside piers..commence puking

mad is either mad about purchasing in this awful situation, or is mad that as broker cant get shit done--id be mad too--

Maybe he's optomistic because he doesn't know there are over 500 condo units for sale in his neighborhood. To say you have the best value is to proclaim ignorance.

MAD WROTE: "Needless to say, Toll Brothere, the developers of Northside Piers, have SCALE. With SCALE comes LEVERAGE. With LEVERAGE comes SALES. Call it whatever you want, employ all the sophisticated semantics and mathematical models you want, the reality is that Northside Piers is offering hands down the best value in Mertro New York. The Edge simply can not compete. They don't have SCALE! "

Sorry to repeat this again, but I looked back and it made me laugh. This is such incoherent BS. What the f@@@ is he talking about? My diagnosis: a broker might, just might, be able to bamboozle a prospective buyer in a conversation with a lot of mumbo jumbo, especially if the individual is predisposed to be convinced, but the broker is making a big mistake to put this garbage in writing in a public forum,where sober minds can read it for what it really is, broker poop.

1. When I referred to "these fine developments" I meant the Edge and NSP.
2. It's amusing that I'm supposedly the idiot for using elementary business "mumbo jumbo" words like scale and leverage.
3. My reference to "bottoming" is relative to here and now. The very tangible and basic fact that nearly 45 units have sold in One NSP since March is as strong an indicator that they are at or near CURRENT market prices as any available.
4. If you Einsteins actually believe you can predict the future, good luck, you will definately need it.
5. If you have the means, brains, and balls, you can find great deals in this market. Clearly the "fear factor" is still irrationally high listening to you idiots! It was the great Muhammad Ali who said; "He who is not courageous enough to take risks will accomplish nothing in life"
6. Go ahead and wait for the "bottom", let me know when you find it.

no need to predict the future anymore clown. the government just decided it. lights out manhattan RE...as manhattan collapses, it just compounds the problems for wburg , JC, and LIC.

1. no matter how you cut it---brooklyn is not manhattan.
2. using words with no context is mumbo jumbo; wtf does scale or leverage have to do with the price of beans? nothing, stupid.
3. are you including in the 45 units those that are in contract but not sold? either way, if the price is so great, why haven't the rest sold, stupid?
4. now one is talking about the future; we're all talking about the here and now....stupid.
5. now you're quoting a boxer as support for buying real estate? are you kidding, stupid.
6. how about the rest of the unsold units; what happened there, stupid.

I was buying in March, that's why I'm buying real estate now. Let's talk in a couple of years. Good luck to all, my only recommendation is to grow some balls.

Using elementary terms in an idiotic way is what I called mumbo jumbo. Maybe you could explain why Toll "scale" (you mean they have lots of units to sell), gives them "leverage", which is a word that in this context presumably means bargaining power....how does that make any sense? In an oversupplied market, you have lots to sell, and that gives you leverage?

jimbo! - when I reference SCALE I am referring to Toll's (TOL) BALANCE sheet. They currently have a RELATIVELY low debt to capital ratio of 40% and they have $1.6B cash on hand. This solid liquidity position and balance sheet combined with being one of the LARGEST home builders in the country gives them SCALE to invest in the prices of their homes!

You can always look these fairly elementary concepts up on Wikepdia!

Yes, the stock has had a great performance over the past 3 years. I sold homebuilders for my clients in 2005. Only an idiot like you would use a bloated inventory and brag about it. You clearly have no background in finance.

positivecarry - what don't you understand about RELATIVE....idiot! Show me a stock that didn't take a massive hit over the past 3 years! If you are a homebuilder and still solvent after the last few years you're doing pretty good DESPITE the fact that you still have bloated inventory. If you have a DEEP Balance sheet, then you can clear your inventory more rapidly than the next guy - which is clearly what TOLL is doing at NSP. Listen folks, people lie, numbers don't. Get a f'n clue!

yep...take a closer look at that balance sheet. over $5 billion of inventory--wonder how much it's really worth. $2 billion maybe?

I don't need to show you a stock, I can show you a entire industry. If you sold homebuilders just as oil started moving, you would be doing just fine. Why don't you overlap the charts of TOL with XLE and then get back to me.

Your comments continue to reinforce the fact that you are way out of your leage here.

Mad--Thanks for making your point a little clearer, but you're still using finanace terms in somewhat unusual ways, such as "invest in their prices", and I notice that your latest explanation dropped the word "leverage" which was had a starring all-caps role in your earlier free-form, jargon dances. Why not try plain english? In any case, your basic point about this apartment is still overly focused on Toll and its situation as if the rest of the market, and the huge inventory coming on line, right now door, and down the street, and in the hood, are not THE critical factor. You wouldn't be getting all this grief on this thread if you had not so aggressively made such a dubious point about this being such a great buy. Finally, why not use some of your apparent love for financial analysis to analyze the asymetrical risk profile of investing in this apartment, i.e., the downside vs.the upside potential.

TOL is such a strong company your CEO sold $37.4 million in stock and options on September 17th. I wouldn't call that a bullish move, but then again, you probably don't even know what that means.

mad0415: This solid liquidity position and balance sheet combined with being one of the LARGEST home builders in the country gives them SCALE to invest in the prices of their homes!

Sarah Palin, is tha'chu?

cant wait to bring this one back up when they cut prices.

"the SCALE to invest in the prices of their homes" is the one that threw me...classic

but the sum of all of it is quite amazing...my guess is that this is a scripted pitch with some ad lib mixed in, delivered by a toll bros salesman...and im sure they get lemmings with this seemingly complex logic..the strength of toll bros...wow...get em some tarp quick

Skinny -- Good call. MAD does market analysis the way Palin does public policy analysis. Confident, emphatic,....and scrambled.

mad's opening salvo:

Show some class, humility, and decency and keep your mouth shut.

should've listened to his own words.

You folks are truly amazing. I suppose we all are...in our capacity to believe what we want to believe, regardless of the facts.

In fact, Mike Collins, the captain of the Columbia, who dropped Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin off on the Moon in 1969, referenced this same phenomenon about test pilots in his book Carrying The Fire. He lived on the cutting edge of the rocket age when the phenomenon of believing you are correct despite the fouls your instruments are screaming at you would kill you instantly.

marco-m - what you don't understand is that "bringing it back when they cut prices" is irrelevant. Assuming prices drop in the first place; WHO CARES!?...at some point in the not too distant furure ahead of that event, they will rise!

That's correct Mad, prices will one day go up. A broken clock is still right twice a day.

I love how he's having this conversation with a large group of people who are sitting on the fence, and when backed into a corner say "who cares" about dropping prices. If that's the best defense you have to give, then you're missing the point about this board.

scale

mad you make the fundamental mistake of most small investors-if something has dropped in price it is immediately a bargain. catching falling knives is dangerous to your financial health. most friends i speak to who have lost 20-40% on their condos since purchasing often revert to "it's my home, not an investment". Wrong, it's both. They also suddenly become mathematically illiterate thinking a 30% fall will be erased by a subsequent 30% rise in value. Your posts read like a typical small investor who has lost money and is trying to rationalize his blunder. Typically they cannot admit they made a mistake. Most likely you purchase in NSP 1 at it's peak. If so you're likely to see a 50% drop in the value of your condo before the bottom is in. And it's going to be no V-shaped recovery. You're going to have realize a 100% gain from the low to get to break even. Coupled with tax abatement phase out and rising maintenance(all those unnecessary amenities cost bucks to upkeep)you may be tempted to walk away just like the owner of the condo at the lead of this thread. Pumping your investment here has shades of the stock boards during the internet boom. We all know how that ended.

No, Mad, **you** are truly amazing. That was a really inspiring story about an astronaut and the moon and malfunctioning instruments and where you are going and airplanes and what you believe and prices and scale and investing.

I really mean it!

Every metaphor needs a song:

" and I think it's gonna be a long, long time til touchdown brings me down....rocket mannnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn"

or "this is ground control to __________"

Mad: For the 3 or 4th time in the last 2yrs on this board....I will say it again...The ONLY people that make money picking bottoms are proctologists.

I am not picking bottoms or calling bottoms. I don't know where prices are GOING any more than any of you fine folks. I do know where prices have been and where they are closing now, just like you fine folks.

I'm calling a good time to jump on in - for the right price and overall VALUE.....and I'm suggesting that NSP is offering both.

I might be wrong and I have no problem with that. At least I'm willing to take the frickin shot....another one of my favorites of all time from one of the greatest of all time; "You miss 100% of the shots you don't take" - Gretsky.

We can all sit around and philosophize about what's happened, what's happening, and what's going to happen. In the meantime, the earth continues to spin rapidly (approximately 22,000 mph) and waits on noone.

Time is money and it's love, sex, and rock and roll....and it's winning and losing, and its rich and poor, and its strong and weak, and it's running out!

Did you clowns ever hear that interview with Brandon Lee, Bruce Lee's son? I believe the day before he was killed on the set of Crow? The interviewer asked some stupid question about tomorrow and after responding with the standard "who the hell knows" crap Brandon Lee said; "I mean, how many more full moons will you see rise? Perhaps 20? Perhaps not even that many, and it all seems so limitless"

By the way, this is another case for the bulls. Over the past few years, we have seen a larger baby boom than the "baby boom" generation itself. Folks, people need housing. All these yard apes have to go somewhere!

"Over the past few years, we have seen a larger baby boom than the "baby boom" generation itself. Folks, people need housing. All these yard apes have to go somewhere!"

you're a complete nut job.

the 2008 birth rate was 10% lower than 2006. immigration is at a standstill. this year's birthrate is likely to be even lower.

yes, mad, in the future it looks like you've got demographics on your side.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/nation/2008-07-16-baby-boomlet_N.htm

columbiacounty - you are uninformed. go ahead, don't be afraid, open your mind and try to learn something new

and you do the same

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/07/us/07births.html

your statement is so misleading that its off the charts.

shame on you.

mad, from your own source. of course there's also that little detail of the enormous reversal that just occurred wiping out any but a temporary one-year blip effect. do you know riversider?

"To be considered a real boom, demographers say, the percentage increases would have to be much larger than the single-digit increases we're seeing now."

O.K. folks, o.k. Let's just say this, in the first 4 years of the real baby, according to USA today (which I understand some people can't live with information unless it is posted in the New York Times - which is exactly the opposite for me) there were 18,146,000 babies born. That's from 1946 - 1950.

The same data shows that from 2003-2007 there were 20,921,347 babies born. Obviously, 2008 and 2009 can potentially be "outliers" due to the economic anomoly, but the story is compelling. If the bulls have it right, and I believe they do, this information alone can prove my point.

If you haven't seen this, please do. This is one of my favorites for the bulls....ie!; real estate and equity investors like myself!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVimVzgtD6w

That's a MAD, MAD world. I think that post about scale and leverage was really hilarious, all the more so because it seems the humor was involuntary.

nothing like tailoring the data to make your own stupid point.

the baby boom was a 17 year phenomena...pick some other 5 year span and see how it works.

you are a self, self serving dirty rotten stinking lying broker disgusting pig.

wow columbia - you certainly have some inner demons that you should seek help with. I wonder what it is that makes you so averse to my viewpoints? Perhaps you despise an optimistic outlook for some sad reason?

"O.K. folks, o.k. Let's just say this, in the first 4 years of the real baby, according to USA today (which I understand some people can't live with information unless it is posted in the New York Times - which is exactly the opposite for me) there were 18,146,000 babies born. That's from 1946 - 1950.

The same data shows that from 2003-2007 there were 20,921,347 babies born. Obviously, 2008 and 2009 can potentially be "outliers" due to the economic anomoly, but the story is compelling. If the bulls have it right, and I believe they do, this information alone can prove my point."

---

the variable that matters is births as a % of total population though imho. to make the impact you would need double the 18 million. but still... you make a very interesting point (this past little baby boom). wonder how much of it was due to those 5 years of economic optimism. also how many of those being born have both parents at home, how many are minorities... kids being born to single moms or to latinos that couldn't finish high school yet (but are in their 30s...) don't provide you the housing demand you might be expecting. the buying power is just not there. it does increase the need for public (or subsidize) housing.

i have no inner demons---just can't stand dirty, stinking, lying self serving scum brokers. and you're one.

jimbo - by the way, I've been meaning to respond to you and your asymmetrics. If you wish to suggest that there is a compelling asymmetrical relationship with regard to NSP relative to it's neighbors or a downside risk, then by all means please provide your hypothesis.

I have requested this several times on this thread for anyone who disagrees with my position.

My position is clear; It's a good time to buy and NSP offers considerable value, especially in consideration of the risk.

I am suggesting that the upside with regard to this property is attractive regardless of the so called "asymmetry" you appear to be suggesting. I have stated this repeatedly and provided hard empirical data to support my position.

While it has been amuzing and entertaining, and a fun discussion, I have yet to see a compelling empirical challenge to my hypothesis. Sure unemployment is high and potentially rising. Sure there is pressure on incomes. Sure there appears to be a lot of inventory.

Perceptions are not reality.

yep...you are a certified nut job.

not to mention a dirty, stinking, lying no good broker scumbag.

columbia - and everyone else, I am not a broker. I have been more fortunate that to find myself facing that fate, so far. In fact, I'm nearly certain that I would prefer to throw on a blue suit and sweep uptown sidewalks to becoming a broker, in the event I had few other options.

I love the way this thread has spun.

If you care about demographics, I encourage you all to read a book called "Fewer", by Ben Wattenberg. I would guess you could get it on Amazon.com or Barnes and Noble. It is a great statistical analysis that debunks most of the U.N.'s assertions about population growth and supports the premises of global DEPOPULATION. I first read this 5 or 6 years ago and many of the ideas can be spun into the investing world.

Does it in anyway referr to the fact the wealthier a nation becomes the less children in families? There was one fascinating statistic on inner city girls hitting puberty earlier than a counterpart in a wealthier burb, it's almost like they know they got to reproduce to keep their numbers up.

Crazy azzed genetic selection going on.

Now, as a follow up, I will pose a question. This is a slight variant of Ben's views, but I fully believe it from my work.

1. What is the single greatest determinant of a society's fertility rate?

Female access to education ?

67...on top of your game as always

Followed closely by female's access to pictures of brad Pitt?

But I still think it is a most interesting read..please read it

Let me add that to my bucket list with my desire to reinflate this population all By myself and just with my good looks and humor. 2 down 3 billion to go. ; )

As a follow up, that's why it was so hard to get into my wife's skirt, TOO much education.

Mad- while we are on the topic of assymetry, let me ask then, to be clear: you believe that the probability of a say 30% rise in the price of this apt at nsp is equal to the probability of a 30% decrease? Are you saying you really believe they are equally likely? [Side note: Absent government distortions I believe in market prices, so the current price should be the market's best guess as to value with no one knowing where prices will go next., but..but...I'm not a quant and not sure in quant terms how to reconcile that with skewed assymetrical risk in some obvious cases; for example, in many emerging market countries the currency risk is very assymetrical, at least in terms of speed, with little possibility of an abrupt upward spurt but lots of things that might cause a rapid deval]. Finally, Real Estae prices are sticky and so , not being liquid, the possibility of asymetrical risk seems more acute than with say a commodity. But ..I ain't no economist so....people....correct me...

w67,,,What if your wife was walking around naked in one of those fish-bowl aparments at nsp? Would it be you vs. some guy on the street, or in a helicopter, with binoculars? From how far away can one discern the motifs of the sexy tatoos?

this is simply awesome logic. it's like mad's head is filled with prancing unicorns.

"While it has been amuzing and entertaining, and a fun discussion, I have yet to see a compelling empirical challenge to my hypothesis. Sure unemployment is high and potentially rising. Sure there is pressure on incomes. Sure there appears to be a lot of inventory.

Perceptions are not reality."

Unemployment, pressure on incomes, inventory? These are perceptions or reality? I think mad spent too much time at a place like Hampshire or Cal enjoying the fun stuff, quite possibly while studying philosophy. But I don't think he did so well grade-wise.

easy on hampshire now--great school for the right kid
and easy on mad--i want him to stay--this shit's hilarious

My apologies for jumping in on this. I agree the fundamentals (high unemployment, high inventory, tight credit etc...) all point to further home price reductions but in reality psychology plays a big factor as well. Just think of the herd mentality in combination with too many idiots out there.

ubottom, my best friend went to hampshire. spent many a week there myself. most kids thrived there, some just in different ways.

but i agree, this is priceless.

tobytoby, herd mentality can only go so far when there's no credit to provide the idiots the rope to hang themselves. it's income, particularly in an area like this. pure and simple.

jimbo - you are suggesting things that I am not suggesting. I have not assessed the probability of risk up or down, much less by a specific percentage, and don't intend to. I have made it clear that I do not know what is going to happen tomorrow any better than anyone else does (except for you, columbia, and aboutready of course - you folks are so smart). I have said and continue to stand by my statement that right now is a good time to consider buying and NSP is offering attractive value, relatively and comparatively.

Your attempt to re-direct the discussion arbitrarily to risk probability and asymmetry is confounding.

patient09 - I appreciate the book recommendation. I believe you are the first person on this thread to bring something of real value to the discussion.

I noticed in the Library Journal's review that the author's relative timeframe seems to be much wider than the near term of the next 10-20 years as they sight an inflection point of approximately 2100. Of course the same reviewer chides the author for his conservative views, which discredits the reviewer at least as much as the author if you ask me.

Thanks for the recommendation. I hope I can find time to squeeze in the read.

Mad says: I believe you are the first person on this thread to bring something of real value to the discussion.

Does that include you, dude?

But I still love your stories. Really, I do. :) !!!! *!*!

Astronauts!!! **Scale**** Asymmetry...... Dedevelopment, cool XOXO

I frankly don't understand any of it. But you sound like you know what you're talking about.

SkinnyNsweet - I'm not sure whether to be flattered or defensive....so I'll be both. I like to hope I'm bringing something to the table. If nothing else, my raw, honest views...and at least one good book recommendation in Carrying the Fire, by Michael Collins. O.K. here's a couple more great books that provide incredible perspective on life; Oldest Living Confederate Widow Tells All by Alan Gurganus and Aztec by Gary Gennings

It is my view that reads like these provide deep perspective on humanity and life, which can help a great deal assessing our own - lives and perspectives.

Young Jedi, you remind me of another a long long time ago. One who believed he had learned the way of the force and needed no more training. He would rant on and on about the comparative and relative value of the pink tulip with it's fragrance and beauty.

He tried to get all the other Jedis to start a fund to buy and corner the pink tulip market. Know this young new Jedi, that investment did not work too well and he turned to the dark side, cause as we alll know too well. The dark side's pay scale is ALWAYS better.

To go back to http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/418392-condo-4-north-5th-street-williamsburg-brooklyn, what strikes me here is that it's a whole line of uninhabitable apartments. Look at the photo where the sofa is shoved to within a foot of the kitchen. It'd make a studio if you tore the wall out, but you'd still have the column and HVAC space wrecking the layout.

There is a worse floorplan out there, http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/447808-condo-1-hanson-place-fort-greene-brooklyn, but that's a one-off in the building.

having trolled through the floorplans of the D, E and J lines (stopped, too awful to continue), most of these floorplans are worse than new construction rentals. one actually has a 14x18 living room, which might work, but has two huge posts rendering the space virtually impossible to use. and has two of the three bedrooms at less than 9' wide. who moves to williamsburg to pay more to buy than to rent a comparable new manhattan apartment?

w67th, you've got mail.

about ready -- You didn't mention the glass walls, but to me that makes apartment organization unusual or different at best, and results in dead spade where certain things dont really work up against glass.

In general, when you refer to "worse than new construction rentals" what do you mean by that? Why would rentals have worse floor plans? unless it makes it easier to carve out more rentable units?. I'm just wondering because it seems odd that there would be a generalized problem with floor plans since for both rental and sale purposes an attractive plan makes more sense. My only impression is that older buildings tend to have quirky corners or alcoves sometimes that make things interesting, and some modern buildings are more boxy.

jim, usually rentals tend to have very small rooms. older buildings tended to be bigger, the newer ones are often quite small. some of the new developments catering to the younger purchaser seem to have almost punishingly small room dimensions (not to mention some other frightful things such as the open wall of kitchen). and yes, i think it's for the same reason rentals did it, to carve out more units. but a rental you can leave fairly easily if you must.

an attractive plan makes more sense for the renter/buyer, but who says it's easy to get size and quality in NYC, either renting or buying? i don't, however, think that it's a good thing to take a look at a condo unit's floorplan and be able to say, hey, i could get better-sized rooms in a new construction rental for much less. you're right about the glass walls, they offer their own set of interior challenges.

"jim, usually rentals tend to have very small rooms. older buildings tended to be bigger,"

Although I agree, don't you find it a little ironic considering.............

funny, but i was generally talking about those "luxury" rentals. TS can slap a "luxury" banner up side these buildings all they want, but they won't ever resemble a Silverstein, etc. building.

i'm certain you've been in, or at least seen the floorplan, for my unit. it is in no way tiny, actually it is one of the best floorplans i've seen for a rental, and the one bedrooms are positively dripping with space.

Mad said "I hope I can find to squeeze in the read"

I'm pretty sure there is plenty of downtime in the NSP sales office.

I see some miniscule price shavings off a few NSP 1 units. Are they serious? 10K reduction on an 800K condo! Why waste one's time with this piffle?

Why waste one's time with this piffle?

Well, you can also read some information out of it -- they are revealing what their time is worth. I guess things aren't too busy in the sales office if they have time to dicker around minor adjustments on sales prices.

Reading this thread is like watching "The Office".. thanks mad..

Any comments from current tenants of NS1? I'm curious how you find the quality.

Thank you!