Jobs #'s Much better Than Expected

this can only mean 1 thing that Manhattan real estate is due to drop at least 70% in the next 72 hours...

petrfitz = idiot

on a related note, jobs were still being CUT
looking forward to a good day in the mkt and the fx mkt though

petrfitz...lol...you mean 90%.

AnonMan2002...sucks huh? people going back to work. I know it must hurt as you need bad news to bring those prices down so you can finally be an owner...hang in their bro.

Anyone who is going to say that jobs were still being cut so this is not good news is just ignorant. The jobs numbers for September and October were revised up to show 159,000 fewer jobs lost and we lost 11,000 in November. Four sectors added jobs. From where we've been, this is fantastic news! It's not all better, but there is no way this isn't a big step in the right direction. To call it otherwise is just myopic.

less people unemployed can only mean that more people will decide that renting is a better investment than owning. Therefore we need atleast 75% drop in Manhattan prime real estate for the rent to own ratio be the same as it is in Naperville, IL.

Buy now or be priced out forever.

Zitz: "Fewer people," not "less people." For the gazillionaire you claim to be, you're English sucks. :)

one for the bulls...hahahah...maybe ill have to pay up..lets see what happens

hmm improving employment, historically low lending rates, historically high levels of cash savings, 3 yers of buyers on the sidelines - all these sound like only 1 thing can happen - a dramtaic drop in RE sales prices...

Still trying to recoup your losses on Christie Street, zits?

not to be overly precise but what we have is improving unemployment not improving employment. the patient may have stabilized but we remain far from returning to health.

-burp-

hours worked was better, wages better, participation in the workforce abysmal, temporary work possibly better but must be viewed with seasonal hiring trends. retailers hired approximately 90k more workers this november than last november, but given november's retail results doubtful they will hire many more in december, so december likely will be lower in that sector than last year. last november there were almost a million jobs lost, so seasonal adjustments are tricky, although BLS did make some attempt to adjust for it. unemployment still at 10% despite further reduction in workforce.

what i now worry about is the continuing erosion in public sector employment. maybe i'm ignorant. i do recall being told some months ago that my saying that we would hit 10% unemployment was just an attempt to incite fear, or some such.

20% unemployment. Now I'm inciting fear. -burp-

AR - what about U6?! i was a little worried this morning when i saw the numbers that you might've had a heart attck. glad to see that wasn't the case

CC - There cannot be positivre job creation until things stabilize, which is why this is such a good report.

AR - Come on...no one is suggesting that everything is roses now, but this is the best jobs report we've had in 2 years. To not acknowledge this as anything but incredibly positive news for the economy is just disingenuous.

i didn't acknowledge anything positive?

once again---i think its all about the words and the hype. if this is incredibly positive, how would you characterize actual job growth? this is better than its been and far too soon to know the real impact.

Were U6 numbers also released this week? What's the nationwide number?

Look, no one is saying that the UE situation is all better. It is still a long way away from that and there will be bumps and setbacks along the way. What I am suggesting is that acknowledging positive news doesn't all of a sudden mean you are bullish on the economy (or RE). There is a bit too much "all or nothing" when it come to examining data.

There is too large of a contingent at SE that will look at this report and say, "Well, we still lost jobs. This is nothing"

And when we have a report showing 50,000 jobs created they will say, "Well, you need to create 150,000 jobs/month to keep up with population growth. This is nothing"

And when we have a report showing 180,000 jobs created they will say, "Well, look at how many jobs have been lost since December 2007. This is nothing."

A little less group think would probably go a long way.

Where's spunky?

U6 fell 3%.

slight improvement in the U6.

waverly, group think? like wall street, you mean?

i still have very serious concerns about the state and local governments, increased taxes, waning effects of the stimulus, etc, and the resulting future employment situation. so sue me.

So currently 16.7% ?

alanhart - I think I saw 17.2%, but don't bet your life savings on my memory.

I love how AboutReady discounts every positive news.
She loves it when the economy tanks and everyone loses her job SO SHE CAN BENEFIT AND MOST IMPORTANTLY 'FEEL' RIGHT ABOUT HER DECISION TO SELL HER HOME BACK IN 2004.

Same goes for the rest of these Streeteasy bears.

You folks make me sick.

In order for -100 to cross above 0, it needs to travel to -99, -98,-97,-66,-55,-10,-2,-1, etc.

Get it?

These bears are pathetic. Anything is ok with them as long as they get what they want. Hey "hope for the worst bears"....fu..... and why don't you try joining the human race.

steveF, yes it's an awful thing to be concerned about the less fortunate. rather than just your own real estate purchases. what i want? give me a fucking break. loser.

"You folks make me sick."

Why, when a fall in housing prices means a decrease in the vacancy rate and more affordability? It seems that market equilibrium is not a personal judgment on sickness or not, merely a reality.

Any objective signs of recovery (decreased unemployment, even a small % drop) will give the Fed and banks the excuse to raise interest rates. They have been waiting patiently. This will have a greater near term effect on RE than any perceptible increase in buying activity.

you guys are so full of sh-t.

let me fill you in on something...your warped, self centered, i only give a crap about me, desires are flagrantly obvious and openly displayed for all to see. How could we not despise you?

hey aboutready, i'm hoping for "good" things to happen, like everyone working, this way WE ALL WIN.

Why does stevejhx keep going from thread to thread looking for spunk(y)?

I miss spunky!

".your warped, self centered, i only give a crap about me, desires are flagrantly obvious and openly displayed for all to see."

What's wrong with renting?

nothing...it's just you guys DON'T want to be renters you WANT to own.

"your warped, self centered, i only give a crap about me, desires are flagrantly obvious and openly displayed for all to see."

steveF, its called a thesaurus. Check it out.

While this number does not account for seasonal jobs, Nov or Dec is not usually a high season job cutting. Jan or Feb usually is.

"it's just you guys DON'T want to be renters you WANT to own."

That is very black-and-white, steveF. I would own, if by owning I could lock in a stream of rent payments below what I actually pay in rent.

HOWEVER, it costs 3x as much to buy an apartment equivalent to what I currently pay in rent. So why would I want to own? It makes no sense.

I've owned and rented. I currently own & I currently rent. I see no difference, except when I own I have to renovate, and when I rent the landlord does it for me.

ajtmd - I think they will keep the rates low for a bit longer. The timing of the increase will be an issue for much debate, I'm sure.

Remember unemployment is not just an economic theory, its a human tragedy that is taking an increasingly heavy toll on a lot of people. My guess is that "better than expected" numbers include people whose benefits have expired, savings are vastly depleted and have taken their MBAs, JDs and ex-VP titles to Home Depot in hope of survival. This summer a good friend of mine with an MBA from a high second tier school and a great marketing background had to interview four times for a job at a cosmetics counter at Macy's.

waverly---but you do agree that keeping interest rates at zero is not a viable long term policy?

Can someone explain to me how the ADP job cut numbers were so far off from the US DOL numbers?

Its funny how morons are pointing at double digit unemployment as a good sign.

Pathetic.

> nothing...it's just you guys DON'T want to be renters you WANT to own.

And you want to be a seller, you just can't without losing your shirt. We know.

""You folks make me sick."

Why, when a fall in housing prices means a decrease in the vacancy rate and more affordability? It seems that market equilibrium is not a personal judgment on sickness or not, merely a reality."

Exactly.

SteveF getting screwed like we predicted is good for the city.

It is just silly to not acknowledge the non-financial benefits to owning over renting.

"It is just silly to not acknowledge the non-financial benefits to owning over renting."

as it is to not acknowledge the non-financial benefits to renting over owning, like better sleep at night.

"Remember unemployment is not just an economic theory, its a human tragedy that is taking an increasingly heavy toll on a lot of people."

ok, but also the housing bubble inflicted a lot of pain in renters. and still do (check the new study on boston for ex, where still as of today 25% of the renters spend more than 50% of their income on rent).

it's a painful adjustment, but much cheaper house prices and rents are a win win for the economy and the country. sustainable econ growth and high house prices just don't go together.

Nice way to contradict yourself admin.

where did i contradict myself? the policy of inflating home prices suck, now the pain of hte hung over is due. is that hard to understand? the more home prices go down to catch up with incomes the better. that's all. you talk as if you are a willing seller, are you?

renters do get better rest than homeowners (those that were proud of their RE acumen i mean), but yes, i still believe that rents should go lower too. there's no contradiction there imho.

So admin are you willing to sacrifice your income for the sake of a "win win" for the economy?

for a transition to a more sustainable sane economy? no doubt. the pain of the bubble was there, you just didn't notice it imho.

now for sake of transparency, do you mind answering me if you own (and would like to sell) or rent?

by the way liz, 100% job stability only exists in not capitalist systems.

capitalists systems need recessions and crashes to allow for reallocation of capital after periods of craziness. it's the equivalent of fires for forests. they are needed. the more you avoid them, the more uncontainable the next one will be. think california now.

capitalism is a choice that people in this country make over and over again. problem is, while the party goes on, who has the courage to stop the excess on a democratic system? nobody. very enticing indeed for policy makers to create bubbles that fuel phony economic growth that fool the majority ...

why would politicians care, right? cause the hang over will come when the next administration comes to power. if people weren't so naive and greedy, they would have noticed imho.

For transparency, I own what I consider my dream and, God willing forever or at least pre-nursing home aparatment. I made a very substaintial down payment and my monthly carrying with mortage/maintence is below rental cost for a similar apartment. This is not investment, I intend to be carried out and if it happens not to appreciate much over what I hope are many years, yet that my heirs problem.

On the other hand, if I do find employment or a reliable free lance income stream at some point in the not too distant future, I may be forced to sell. Since I bought in 2008 I probably wouldn't get what I paid but my mortgage isn't that big. I don't want to sell, I want to WORK. And frankly while I retain compassion for the many who are worse off than I, I don't give a whit about the long term good of the capitalist system...if I didn't know how courrupt and discouraging of innovation the alternative was, I might consider it.

"ok, but also the housing bubble inflicted a lot of pain in renters. and still do (check the new study on boston for ex, where still as of today 25% of the renters spend more than 50% of their income on rent)."

No it wasn't. During the buble rents went down since nobody wanted to rent. The bubble was great for renters.

"it's a painful adjustment, but much cheaper house prices and rents are a win win for the economy and the country. sustainable econ growth and high house prices just don't go together."

Really? So then why are we in a recession right now? Aren't home prices and rents both going down right now?

"Really? So then why are we in a recession right now? Aren't home prices and rents both going down right now? "

guys, really, so much drama? if you cannot take a recession, capitalism is not for you. you should consider cuba.

admin:

capitalists systems need recessions and crashes to allow for reallocation of capital after periods of craziness. it's the equivalent of fires for forests. they are needed. the more you avoid them, the more uncontainable the next one will be. think california now.

capitalism is a choice that people in this country make over and over again. problem is, while the party goes on, who has the courage to stop the excess on a democratic system? nobody. very enticing indeed for policy makers to create bubbles that fuel phony economic growth that fool the majority ...

why would politicians care, right? cause the hang over will come when the next administration comes to power. if people weren't so naive and greedy, they would have noticed imho.

_________________

Well put admin.

"On the other hand, if I do find employment or a reliable free lance income stream at some point in the not too distant future, I may be forced to sell. Since I bought in 2008 I probably wouldn't get what I paid but my mortgage isn't that big. I don't want to sell, I want to WORK. And frankly while I retain compassion for the many who are worse off than I, I don't give a whit about the long term good of the capitalist system...if I didn't know how courrupt and discouraging of innovation the alternative was, I might consider it."

uf, thanks for sharing! i see now that this crash is exposing you to a possible tough situation that previously might had been unthinkable. didn't mean to disrespect you at all. for me is not corruption or the need of more innovation but simply preferring lower econ growth that's sustainable and real than inflated growth that is just based on only accounting the pretty side of asset transfers between us.

imho bubbles might be fun but end in tears. those that cry are in general those that got into it later for one reason or another. those that got lucky and got into early reap a bounty that has nothing to do with achievement nor contribution to society. it's kind of a casino where the professional paper shufflers are the house.

with these econ policies seems that mastering the game of credit bubbles should be a part time job. liking the house, having good credit and good income is not enough. you still might be taken to the dry cleaners for a bubble that was premeditated. not fun, i prefer doing with less and not having the fantasy that i'll strike it rich or end in a golf community. that's me though.