Manhattan Down Another 5%

A low to mid single digit decline from here is pretty much market expectation.

I think that would officially get us to 30% down...

"I think that would officially get us to 30% down..."

How so? Based on Miller Samuel data, the peak in median sales price was in Q208 (see previous quarter column on p.1 here: http://www.millersamuel.com/reports/pdf-reports/MMO3Q08.pdf). $1,025,000 to $810,000 = -21%. If Miller Samuel is credible for current pricing (per the OP) then why not for peak pricing? Maybe you prefer another metric than median price, but whichever you choose I don't think market-wide numbers get you there.

Sides 30% Coming Around the Corner NEXT LEG DOWN STARTS MARCH 2010

NOVEMBER PENDING SALES EXISTING HOMES DOWN 26% in NORTHEAST Hold On to Your ----- Owners in Manhattan

"Sides 30% Coming Around the Corner" When it does, it does, and that will be the time to post comments about 30% down.

bulls?

marco, what would you expect a bull to say? Pretty evident, no? I haven't done the math this time around, but if sideline's right, just another example of the OP's propensity to stretch the truth. Watch, someone will now call me a "bull."

"If Miller Samuel is credible for current pricing (per the OP) then why not for peak pricing? Maybe you prefer another metric than median price, but whichever you choose I don't think market-wide numbers get you there"

Sidelinesitter, you simply missed a step here. I was responding to the post in the middle, which added another decline to the current a prediction). Read the posts in order and that should be clear.

I at no point said that the current MS numbers have us down 30%, nor did anyone else on the thread. Sorry to disappoint the jump-to-conclusion crowd.

In terms of your comments on the predictions that came after my post, I get that you want a sure thing, but if we wait until the numbers are in... then it would no longer be a prediction. ;-)

> bulls?

silence, I guess. so much for the "stabilization" claims.

"Sidelinesitter, you simply missed a step here" - Thanks. I see that now.

I'm a bear.

But I wouldn't agree with the assertion that fourth quarter prices really dropped. I prefer to look at the metric "price per square foot" which normalized "somewhat" for the mix of studios, one-bedrooms, etc. Those prices seem to have risen about 5% during the quarter.

"NOVEMBER PENDING SALES EXISTING HOMES DOWN 26% in NORTHEAST Hold On to Your ----- Owners in Manhattan"

Nobody should ever deny that the surge in new deals over the past 6-8 months or so had A LOT to do with stimulus, record low rates from fed MBS buying, and govt tax credits - all of which are artificial and temporary. When those expire or wear out, yes, it will be a return to normal and relatively speaking, we go from the data surging to the data now surging and that will be interpreted as the market falling again.

So yes we have artificial forces here at work that are yet to wear out and hit the data and that is definitely ahead of us.

As for Manhattan, I really dont care what these quarterly reports say. This market simply priced OUT fear, and the reflation was progressive over time as we got to where we are today. It started around May/June, June, July and part of AUG was especially busy, then a slight lull in SEPT, and then the market remained active throughout the year and the reflation was progressive starting in lower price points and trickling to higher price points as confidence rose.

Thats as best as I can describe what is happening and what happened. From March trades, there has been a noticeable improvement in bids, but yes, its still down from peak. if we look back 10 months, bids are higher, if we look back 24-30 months, bids are lower. All relative.

oops typo: go from the data surging to the data NOT surging

Look ud, I appreciate what you do. Let me clarify something. I dealt with a lot of traders in the day. Thy could tell me what my syndicated loans were trading at or would in the next 1-5 months. But the problem I always had was what about the 5 or 7 or even 10 yr piece. The rvolver/st, yeah take the trader's advice.

So I guess what I am saying is 'trader' mentality is grt for carrying no inventory. But last I chked 'home' ownership is ALL aboutz 'inventory'.