http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2010/01/what-do-pending-home-sales-numbers-mean.html Associated Press notes that the housing market may be headed for a "double-dip" downturn over the winter, and that the report "adds to worries industry is mostly propped up by government stimulus". Remember that pending home sales figures are based on contracts which have been written, but have not yet closed. As... [more]
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2010/01/what-do-pending-home-sales-numbers-mean.html
Associated Press notes that the housing market may be headed for a "double-dip" downturn over the winter, and that the report "adds to worries industry is mostly propped up by government stimulus".
Remember that pending home sales figures are based on contracts which have been written, but have not yet closed. As NAR notes:
The Pending Home Sales Index [is] a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed ...
NAR explains:
* Our sample shows that over 80% of all pending home sales go to settlement within a 2-month time-period (and a significant share of the rest close in month 3 and month 4).
* Not all pending home sales go to closing. A certain percentage of properties that go under contract are cancelled (or fallout) before ever going to settlement.
Given that the big banks have substantially tightened up on lending, it might be that less than 80% of the low number of current pending home sales will end up actually closing.
No wonder the New York Times wrote yesterday, even before the new pending home sales report was released:
When it comes, a lasting recovery will be evident in a housing rebound. Unfortunately, housing appears to be weakening anew ...
We wish we could proclaim a Happy New Year in housing. But until more is done to help struggling homeowners, the portents are not good.
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Response by front_porch
about 16 years ago
Posts: 5320
Member since: Mar 2008
you know real estate is a seasonal business, which historically dips in the winter, right?
It is clear that we need employment to come back before we get a strong economic recovery in this country. However, the real estate pessimists seem to be ignoring that even the lousy pending home sales number we got for November is 15% UP from the previous year.
comparing to november 2008 isn't so compelling to me.
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Response by w67thstreet
about 16 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
November 2008. R u serious. That's like saying my wife lost 40 lbs from -9-02 to 9-03, wo stating she was pregnant in 02'. Holy crap, - shaking my head in complete disbelief-
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Response by angler7
about 16 years ago
Posts: 193
Member since: Oct 2007
LOL w67thstreet. By far one of your best analogies. Cheers!
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Response by bjw2103
about 16 years ago
Posts: 6236
Member since: Jul 2007
You guys can knock using YOY data, but have nothing to back up that sentiment? Come on, you can do better.
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Response by aboutready
about 16 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
bjw, yoy data is ALMOST always the best to use. however, contracts signed two months after the near-destruction of the financial system? when fear was rampant, and blood running in the streets? please. talk about extraordinary circumstances that skew data.
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Response by bjw2103
about 16 years ago
Posts: 6236
Member since: Jul 2007
aboutready, thanks. I'm of the opinion that that kind of fear didn't really hit real estate in the same way until February 09, so I'm not sure the skew is as strong as you might think. Obviously things aren't rosy, but w67th's knee-jerk "r u fn kidding me?" responses are sometimes misplaced, IMHO.
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Response by aboutready
about 16 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
bjw, i'm fairly certain, although this is just an opinion, that it is enough to remove a 15% change yoy 2008-09. and probably then some. people in finance immediately felt huge insecurity about their bonuses. but i'd have to go back and look at third quarter vs. fourth quarter '08 new pending sales, and i am just not that motivated this moment.
it was a funny analogy.
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Response by bjw2103
about 16 years ago
Posts: 6236
Member since: Jul 2007
Very funny - I can't take that away from him.
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Response by w67thstreet
about 16 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
angler7, is that british/Australian or just a used up colony of britain? LONG LIVE THE QUEEN!
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Response by bjw2103
about 16 years ago
Posts: 6236
Member since: Jul 2007
w67th, is the missus not enough? There are some websites that might help out. Not changing the handle, man, sorry.
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Response by w67thstreet
about 16 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
Lock jaw.. itz a problem we need to spend more $$$ on. Who's with me?
you know real estate is a seasonal business, which historically dips in the winter, right?
It is clear that we need employment to come back before we get a strong economic recovery in this country. However, the real estate pessimists seem to be ignoring that even the lousy pending home sales number we got for November is 15% UP from the previous year.
More here: http://bit.ly/8OtZxT
ali
comparing to november 2008 isn't so compelling to me.
November 2008. R u serious. That's like saying my wife lost 40 lbs from -9-02 to 9-03, wo stating she was pregnant in 02'. Holy crap, - shaking my head in complete disbelief-
LOL w67thstreet. By far one of your best analogies. Cheers!
You guys can knock using YOY data, but have nothing to back up that sentiment? Come on, you can do better.
bjw, yoy data is ALMOST always the best to use. however, contracts signed two months after the near-destruction of the financial system? when fear was rampant, and blood running in the streets? please. talk about extraordinary circumstances that skew data.
aboutready, thanks. I'm of the opinion that that kind of fear didn't really hit real estate in the same way until February 09, so I'm not sure the skew is as strong as you might think. Obviously things aren't rosy, but w67th's knee-jerk "r u fn kidding me?" responses are sometimes misplaced, IMHO.
bjw, i'm fairly certain, although this is just an opinion, that it is enough to remove a 15% change yoy 2008-09. and probably then some. people in finance immediately felt huge insecurity about their bonuses. but i'd have to go back and look at third quarter vs. fourth quarter '08 new pending sales, and i am just not that motivated this moment.
it was a funny analogy.
Very funny - I can't take that away from him.
angler7, is that british/Australian or just a used up colony of britain? LONG LIVE THE QUEEN!
w67th, is the missus not enough? There are some websites that might help out. Not changing the handle, man, sorry.
Lock jaw.. itz a problem we need to spend more $$$ on. Who's with me?
It's an epidemic. In.
Used up colony.
Mumbai.... nice...
Nah. Think closer to home mon!