ericho how do these payroll numbers look?

...and on the payroll day, he rested.

ericho takes bad economic news days off. didn't you know that?

We are just not going to start adding 400,000 jobs/month from where we have been. It is going to take time and there are going to be bumps ands setbacks along the way, like going from adding 4,000 jobs in November to losing 85,000 in December.

There is still some good in this report. "Still, the payrolls report, which is viewed by most economists as the more reliable gauge of the labor market's health, suggested a broad trend toward improvement was still intact.

Professional and business services added 50,000 positions, while education and health services increased payrolls by 35,000. Temporary help employment rose by 47,000.

Manufacturing payrolls fell 27,000 after dropping 35,000 in November. The construction sector lost 53,000 jobs, while the service-providing sector shed only 4,000 workers.

The average workweek was unchanged at 33.2 hours, while average hourly earnings increased by $18.80 from $18.77 in November."

I think we will have another 6 months of ups and downs before we start to make better traction forward. Overall, certain not the best jobs report for sure, but it wasn't all terrible.

let's see how the stock and bond market react. initially poorly but not to bad, now the stock market is rising and long term rates are rising. nothing i like better than discounting mechanisms reacting the opposite to what one would expect. both are predicting a strong economic recovery.

The employment/population ratio:

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/S0c-I-I8bpI/AAAAAAAAHM0/Uq82pCCeY1s/s1600-h/EmploymentPopRatioDec.jpg

A comparison to other recessions:

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_pMscxxELHEg/S0c1SpJEkNI/AAAAAAAAHMs/lPW1FP1zchE/s1600-h/EmploymentRecessionsDec.jpg

both from calculatedriskblog.com

I'm diappointed...but this means ONE thing.
Fed will not hike anytime soon.

Pretty bullish to me.

New highs on junk yields today!

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=JNK#chart1:symbol=jnk;range=5d;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined

"nothing i like better than discounting mechanisms reacting the opposite to what one would expect. both are predicting a strong economic recovery."

BINGO!

Follow the money. That's the last thing the bears know how to do.

"New highs on junk yields today!"

Actually, new highs on junk PRICES today. A.k.a., new LOWS on junk yields.

That's an F in Fixed Income 101, you bucket shop clown.

AR - that is why there are going to be ups and downs as we navigate forward. It won;t be a quick turnaround, but it is getting better.

"bucket shop clown" - that is a very funny phrase!

waverly, no. it's quit getting worse, at least for the most part. but it hasn't gotten better.

"That's an F in Fixed Income 101, you bucket shop clown"

hahahahah

Oh please.
Weren't you the dumb ass that called for a 2nd wave down?

AR - No, I don't agree with you. This is what recoveries look like.

Your mama!

waverly, did you look at the second chart i posted? does that look like an f'ng recovery to you? does it look anything like any of the other post-war recoveries?

take a look and let me know.

Yes, it looks exactly like what I antipated the recovery to look like (okay, what many smart people believe and what I also think...I don't count with the smart people). Long way down means slow fix, but it is getting better.

ok, waverly, i can't argue with someone who says that a slope that is still negative is a recovery.