http://www.housingwire.com/2010/03/15/housing-recovery-is-spelled-r-e-o/ According to data from Lender Processing Services (LPS: 40.22 0.00%), a whopping 7.4m loans are now non-current, compared to just 4.1m on average between January and June of 2008. A recent JP Morgan Chase (JPM: 43.07 0.00%) investor presentation presents the problem more visually, per the data below: (You can literally almost... [more]
http://www.housingwire.com/2010/03/15/housing-recovery-is-spelled-r-e-o/
According to data from Lender Processing Services (LPS: 40.22 0.00%), a whopping 7.4m loans are now non-current, compared to just 4.1m on average between January and June of 2008. A recent JP Morgan Chase (JPM: 43.07 0.00%) investor presentation presents the problem more visually, per the data below: (You can literally almost see the pig in the python.)
What the above chart should call attention to is the aging of loans in the default pipeline. Again using LPS data, for all loans more than 90 days in arrears, the average days delinquent is now at 272 days—up from 204 days in early 2008. For loans in foreclosure, the aging numbers are even more staggering: loans in this bucket average 410 days delinquent, up from 260 days delinquent in early 2008.
Ponder those numbers for just a second. On average, severely delinquent borrowers have gone more than 9 months without making a mortgage payment—and yet foreclosure has not yet started for them. For those borrowers who are in the foreclosure process, it’s been an average of 13.6 months—more than one full year—since they last made any payment on their mortgage.
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Response by ab_11218
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 2017
Member since: May 2009
can't wait for all of those foreclosures and short sales. it seems that 2010-11 will be the perfect storm of those. considering that it takes longer in NY to get to a foreclosure, there will be plenty more to come.
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Response by Riversider
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 13572
Member since: Apr 2009
Banks holding second liens may be blocking short sales from occuring..
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Response by aboutready
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
new york metro area second in the country in terms of percentage of loans that are delinquent. only las vegas is worse. new york's backlog in dealing with delinquent loans also among the worst.
is this the same riversider who said in the last few days that all the bad news was already priced in?
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Response by technologic
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 253
Member since: Feb 2010
Article about "new york's backlog" does not define what it considers the ny "metro area."
I have yet to see hard data on Manhattan....lots of speculation and "I heards" but the last hard data I saw (and posted) reflected that there were only 8 foreclosures in Manhattan, and half of those were in Harlem.
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Response by sidelinesitter
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 1596
Member since: Mar 2009
columbiacounty
about 3 hours ago
stop ignoring this person
report abuse
is this the same riversider who said in the last few days that all the bad news was already priced in?
Is this the same columbiacounty who used to stalk Riversider before he got troll-controlled by SE?
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Response by aboutready
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
technologic, I think you missed honeycrisp's explanation. that was not the manhattan total in that source. as the average property has a non-paying owner for almost 13 months before foreclosure action begins, and given that it takes about a year to foreclose in ny, it would take about two years from delinquency for the foreclosures to show up assuming no attempts at modification
our delinquencies started later AND we have a very slow process.
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Response by technologic
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 253
Member since: Feb 2010
I remember that the 8 was descibed as a "snapshot in time" meaning as of the date of the article, how many were in foreclosure. And I understand that there are many more than 8 properties in pre-foreclosure/lis pendens stage. What I have not seen to date is how many Manhattan (not "NY metro area) properties are in the pre-foreclosure stage (excluding Harlem), and, how many of those are condos built during the boom. My guess - and this is only a guess - is that the very large majority would be in (a) condos that (b) were built in the boom.
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Response by aboutready
almost 16 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
technologic, not necessarily if the area is following loan delinquency trends. it's spreading to borrowers who had very high credit profiles.
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can't wait for all of those foreclosures and short sales. it seems that 2010-11 will be the perfect storm of those. considering that it takes longer in NY to get to a foreclosure, there will be plenty more to come.
Banks holding second liens may be blocking short sales from occuring..
new york metro area second in the country in terms of percentage of loans that are delinquent. only las vegas is worse. new york's backlog in dealing with delinquent loans also among the worst.
http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2010/03/15/barclays-foreclosure-backlogs-are-worst-in-florida-new-york/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+wsj%2Fdevelopments%2Ffeed+%28WSJ.com%3A+Developments+Blog%29
is this the same riversider who said in the last few days that all the bad news was already priced in?
Article about "new york's backlog" does not define what it considers the ny "metro area."
I have yet to see hard data on Manhattan....lots of speculation and "I heards" but the last hard data I saw (and posted) reflected that there were only 8 foreclosures in Manhattan, and half of those were in Harlem.
columbiacounty
about 3 hours ago
stop ignoring this person
report abuse
is this the same riversider who said in the last few days that all the bad news was already priced in?
Is this the same columbiacounty who used to stalk Riversider before he got troll-controlled by SE?
technologic, I think you missed honeycrisp's explanation. that was not the manhattan total in that source. as the average property has a non-paying owner for almost 13 months before foreclosure action begins, and given that it takes about a year to foreclose in ny, it would take about two years from delinquency for the foreclosures to show up assuming no attempts at modification
our delinquencies started later AND we have a very slow process.
I remember that the 8 was descibed as a "snapshot in time" meaning as of the date of the article, how many were in foreclosure. And I understand that there are many more than 8 properties in pre-foreclosure/lis pendens stage. What I have not seen to date is how many Manhattan (not "NY metro area) properties are in the pre-foreclosure stage (excluding Harlem), and, how many of those are condos built during the boom. My guess - and this is only a guess - is that the very large majority would be in (a) condos that (b) were built in the boom.
technologic, not necessarily if the area is following loan delinquency trends. it's spreading to borrowers who had very high credit profiles.
we shall see.
side line shitter: one and the same.