Map of Harlem condo glut

Real(i)ty (or at least a graphic representation of it) bites.

$539 per square foot in Harlem. Down about a hundred more in the next year.

once they hit the sweet point, $350-400, maybe people will start buying again.

There are a bunch of people I know who would be happy to buy in Harlem, but are waiting for prices to come down. It's sad really, lots of buyers, lots of apartments, but most will wait for the downturn to play out before they commit to any action. So much wasted time.

Very true, redelm. If the developers just understood that, things would change rapidly.

some developers think that they have something that's "One Of A Kind". unfortunately in Harlem, there's no such thing. there's just glut of apartments on the market now and will be almost double that number by end of this year/beginning of next.

Critical mass, is that you?

Once prices come down - I do agree that at $350-$400 psf you'll see more activity - it does validate the argument that the so-called glut will be good for the neighbhorhood by bringing more middle-class people to Harlem. But agreed that this will cause significant price pressure in the near-term: what is the incenctive to buy now with so much inventory on the lot. There is very little one of a kind anyway - this isn't true to Harlem but condos in general - most of them have the same amenities (gym, roofdeck, etc.). Aside from location, I think the only real differentation within condos comes from super-high ceilings or large, private outdoor spaces.

that map in that article is such BS and purposefully misleading. Many of the condos on that map
are not new projects. In fact the building I live in is shown on there. This building was built before 2000 and has been fully occupied for years.

I'm not trying to argue prices won't drop further, but that map is ridiculous.

the lenox filed for bankruptcy. 59 out of 77 units sold, $10mm out of $20mm repaid to the lender. interesting numbers. wasn't this the developer for 5th on the park as well?

Same, yes, bankruptcy, yes, not filled, yes, units now for rent, yes.

Actually a very nice building...I actually looked at renting there (5th) but its just too far from EVERYTHING except maybe a NYSC.

mmarquez, this map also says there is only 1 new development on FDB between 1116th and 125th which couldn't be farther from the truth - that's probably been the center for new developments. point is, not sure this map overstates the case, it probably understates the case

Three Words for Harlem:

LOOK OUT BELOW

If they can't bother to make the maps accurate then I can only conclude that any #s in the report are also BS. That is my professional opinion.

I spent a bit of time reviewing the map up close.It's a stretch to draw any conclusions from the map other than a vastly changed Harlem in the last 10-20 years. When you review each building identified on the map you will notice that there are vastly different categories but there is no such distinction- thus misleading.
Some observations:
1. I noticed one property on the map (corner of 145th and Broadway) but no such condo exists or is currently proposed. I am sure there are others.
2. There are condos identified on the map that are nearly fully sold or are sold out This is part of the point that mmarquez made.
3. Some condos on the map are brownstone conversations (or proposed conversions)- not exactly large developments adding massive inventory.
4. There are condos they failed to identify (including my own building) that may or may not be useful for their discussion.
5. New Condos that are either finished with construction or are nearly online- that might actually create the glut
6. New Condos that are either proposed or in the early construction phases- another contributor to added inventory.

I believe if the report really wanted to make a genuine case of oversupply the discussion would focus on observations 5 and 6 (and of course #4- but if they missed it the first go-around- they couldn't include it in the point they are trying to make).

Long-time readers here probably know that I have been consistently saying that parts of Harlem will have issues regarding oversupply- but this report is just clumsy with trying to make that point.

I also wanted to reiterate point #3. The report just says condos, but there's a huge difference btw a brownstone conversion and a new condo building like Graceline Court.

I just saw this posting on Curbed about the Lenox going bankrupt. I'm feeling like we dodged a bullet not buying into Beacon Towers.

http://www.crainsnewyork.com/article/20100318/REAL_ESTATE/100319887

Probably doesn't help The Lenox that the luxury auto dealer who rented the entire downstairs is no longer there. Anyone know what happened to them?

Yes, bc a bankrptcy down the block in no way affects your unit's price. Neither does the popping of the greatest bubble.

This just underscores how easy it is to manipulate inventory numbers based on wishy-washy criteria and plain ol' bad data. And it makes it that much harder to talk about these issues when there are so many bad reports out there that are so quickly taken as fact.

Don't know the details about the dealership, but it was misplaced from the start. Cars were very nice to look at, but not realistic for most zip codes. Not sure what the thought process was there.

Yeah, exactly. Rolls Royces and Ferraris are tough to move on Park & 53rd. But upper central harlem? WTF?

bjw2103 If you guys read the fine print this data is weighted. Meaning some actuary took some numbers from some buildings and did an analysis and these are the numbers that were produced. Note I use the words produced. But the prices do need to adjust downward.

Car dealership and caviar place: major WTF. People don't understand that gentrification of Harlem was based on drug dealers, empty lots and squaters: out / priced out mostly barely middle class young couples (income wise for NYC): in... Caviar & ferraris are almost as out of reach for them almost by the same degree it was for the squaters...

Exactly. Caviar bar! It was RETARDED.

Harlem is worth watching for the bargin hunter with a keen eye.
All you need is cash, patience, frontier sprit, and a willingness to take a chance on the future of a neighborhood that could not have a better location. This issue is that this concept of Harlem is not new and all that have bought into it have yet to realize the dream. Where other say,"why?" I say "why not" run.

Dreams are what life is made of. For the long-term dreamers amongst us:

Harlem (Columbia U expansion as a factor)
2nd Ave Yorkville, Lennox/Murray Hills (2nd Ave train line)
Bushwick & Prospect Heights (hippies will always need a 'hood to call home)

Don't ask what is realistic. DARE TO DREAM!

Right. So caviar bars and Rolls dealerships....in 2026.