Manhattan foreclosures increases 184% last month

Yeah real big Who really cares about the Bronx and Queens.

It said Manhattan specifically (Bronx and Queens have different statistics).

MMAfia--Like you I am praying hard that prices drop so I can pick up a nice condo for the cheap. Keep posting headlines that the roof is caving in in Manhattan and maybe one day me and you can scoop up a great deal. Im sure you posts are scaring people to sell at lower prices. Keep up the good work. In the meantime unfortunately we will both just have to wait and continue renting

"While Manhattan was hit particularly hard at the start of this summer, its total increase in foreclosures for the past year was moderate by comparison: just over 12 percent.

Its foreclosures rose from 225 to 253."

So that's 28 more over the past year, significantly less than everywhere else. Big deal.

and how many of those were above 110th street?

Well spunky, I don't plan on buying a condo in Manhattan and I sure am not praying for prices to drop.

My interests are purely schadenfreude- yes, I do admit I'm one of those super annoying motorists who slow down to see the train wreck and cause traffic for everyone else.

So, I while I don't pray for accidents to occur on the highway, I am guilty for slowing down and watching ala schadenfreude. It's getting quite interesting.

The problem is your slowing down and looking at nothing and hoping and praying instead it was a view of those those in misery. Unfortunately, you may have a better view if you look in the mirror.

Wow - that (#8) was prolific Spunky. If you want to get that cheap condo in Manhattan you better buy now.

Prolific?

Nice job, Spunky! At least we know where we all stand. Now all we need is another doom and gloom post from "HimWhoKnows" to make my week complete. (HWK has been strangely silent since the markets stabilized . . . obviously much harder to make stuff up now).

BTW -- if history is any indication of what is going on you can expect less than a handful of foreclosures below 110th. In 2006, there were exactly 2 according to the map below.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/2007/03/28/2007-03-28_set_up_for_a_fall-3.html

Just think if that goes up 184% we could be looking at 4 foreclosures in 2007 below 110th!

The sky is falling!!

I think he meant to say profound. However, for those interesting in using me as a stud I am very prolific as well

this website is too funny.
Always the same desperate 2-3 individuals hoping for the RE market in Manhattan to crash.
You all just sound so bitter and unhappy people. You know, envy can make you a really ugly person.

markznyc: Look at propertyshark.com. 2 foreclosures?!!! There are many, many more EVERY WEEK. 2 foreclosures, my foot.

belle

belle:

Look at the map for 2006: two residential foreclosures. Unless the data was totally made up, it seems pretty valid.

Property Shark:
In manhattan: 9 listings; 6 below 110th street. NONE are residences and are commercial foreclosures for deadbeat investors.

I stand corrected. The sky is falling!

Really, I'm not bitter. Nor am I desperate. If I were, my tone would be similar to others here who are getting a little emotional.

I'm just a watcher. I don't plan on buying, nor do I envy those who own. I also don't think lowly of those who own, nor do I think they are dumb or stupid or anything negative to that effect.

Put simply, I'm just sucker for watching train wrecks. I am a rubber-necker.

Forgive me but by the amount of postings you don't seem so detached...in any case...whatever makes you happy.

In my building, 2 buyers ($1600000) went into contract only to be dropped because they couldn't get a mortgage. The apartments are back on the market.

Other sources (Samuel Miller, Jim Cramer, etc.) say that NYC/Manhattan have been strong and still doesn't have high inventories.

From urbandigs.com,

I see this recent headline from the NY Times story on Sunday that states "...Since June 2006, the national inventory of houses has increased by 12%, but Manhattan's apartment inventory has decreased by 32%":

The Manhattan Real Estate Slump That Wasn't (NY Times) -

Even the condo glut that so many real estate executives feared has turned out instead to be a boon of sorts. "If we didn’t have new development coming on at the pace we did, we'd have a chronic shortage across all sectors, and we’d see 20 percent price growth," said Mr. Miller, the appraiser.

To the extent Manhattan's housing market is threatened by a weak national economy and by declining bonuses, said Mr. Miller of Miller Samuel, "then the fact that we have a lower level of supply coming on would help keep the market from correcting."

MMafia please let us all know when you come down with throat cancer (or some other disease)so we can all watch you pass away slowly in so much pain that you scream for a mercy killing. Please do keep us informed of any misfortune you or your love ones may encounter.We too don't hope for any illness you may encounter but we all would love to watch you when you do come down with one.

But, but, but, Manhattan residents are so much more superior than anyone else, how could they possibly land into a foreclosure situation? They're so sophisticated, have it so together, are geniuses on eveything financial and market related, how could this possibly happen?

5634zzi, I never said I was detached. I merely stated that I wasn't bitter or desperate.

I am definitely not detached and actually have a great interest which is why I do post quite a bit. I'm just not desperate nor am I bitter.

spunky, again, not sure why we are getting so emotional and personal here. not unless you have some reason to be, but I won't speculate why :)

Back to the original topic... what I'm curious to know is why there was such a big jump from last month, yet the YoY figures are similar. cyclical activity perhaps?

I would guess spunky's comments to you are due to your behavior/interest being somewhat perverse. . .pretty simple. . . you've got a strange hobby.

I'm not getting emotional. You have have stated several times that you enjoy watching people in emotional distress. Why can't I state that I would enjoy watching you if it happens to you?
Yes it would be perverse but I think I would get a kick out of watching Bid Laden get ravished by some parasitic disease as well.

'Bid Laden' get 'ravished'?
You mean 'Bin Laden' get 'ravaged'.
Get a dictionary.

"Ravished by Malaria" is often used in parasitology text books. Malaria is a parasitic disease. However ravaged by parasites is probably more commonly used.

some of the owners on here are getting very very nervous. Housing is about to get hit very badly in Manhattan as it is overpriced by any measure - don't go around beating up on MMAfia just because he's the messenger.

anon3 and MMafia same person different screen name.

I just think you're being immature spunky - just because he has something to say that you don't want to be true you're name calling and wishing death on him.....just the kind of person who would buy into a market like this - clearly a brilliant mind.

I am all for a good hearty debate . . . so, per the original post let's discuss the facts.

TWO foreclosures below 110th last year.

Property Shark lists NO current residential foreclosures below 110th in Manhattan.

So -- where is the counter?

These boards are great places to air different views on RE in NYC. It is unfortunate that, like the country as a whole, the debate has to degenerate into two sides with nothing better to do than to stereotype and slam each other.

Sad. And dumb.

I too like to look at the facts and here they are

Foreclosures in the City will be kept at a minimum due to the strict requirements of Coop boards which by the way make up the majority of apartments in Manhattan.
Couple this with Very Low Inventory and Inventory in Manhattan is decreasing over the months which is opposite of what's happening in other parts of the country
Rental Prices are increasing which makes investing in Manhattan more attractive
Foreign investors in Manhattan is getting even stronger and the weak dollars is giving that a nice boast.

I cannot understand the constant denial that there is a real estate problem. Manhattan is not OZ...if it hasn't hit Manhattan it's coming.

I agree - Julia - but when - now or in the long run?

As some one once said - "in the long run we are all dead"

Real estate aside . . . it IS OZ!

Have you spent any time in this country's mid section?

I challenge anyone to go to a WalMart West of the Delaware and not shudder at the spectacle that transpires.

SCARY!

What spectacle is that markznyc? Please inform, we are curious.

that thread is best made for GAWKER . . . needless to say if 70% of the country is obese, take out Manhattan and the number pops up to, um, about 99% . . .

Yes,could someone please tell exactly what day the crash in Manhattan real estate market will occur. Also I need to know what day the recession will occur as well. I know both are coming but I just need some dates so I can plan accordingly.

according to Him who Knows it started about 20 days ago......so MMafia decided to grab a beach chair and comfortably enjoy the show while Julia prepares some delicious frozen margaritas...yummm! I just love it!

WERD! love it.. got the popcorn ready. Looks like the previews are almost over. Can't wait for the main show to begin!!!

uhmm, no, mr.Miller says it's not happening for awhile. My instinct tells me that he is a bit more informed than you and your friends. Make sure you have a bathroom handy, you are gonna wait awhlie.

what does "werd" mean?

ok so this is not Manhattan but there is always more to a story than just numbers. Look at what happened to people in Bushwick for example.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/2007/08/23/2007-08-23_suit_africanamericans_targeted_in_lemon_.html

I doubt that Mr. Miller is more informed than my 'friends', which is why I differ from his point of view.

Look out! You guys just have no clue about what's really going on. We just barely got done with the first inning.

If you REALLY want to see what's happening, watch what's going on with the credit, commercial paper and treasury markets. It's in Factor 5 panic mode right now. The Fed's actions have thus far done nothing to calm those markets down.

Wall St is going to suffer big time for the excesses of the past 5-6 years, and just like all cycles, this credit cycle is no different, except for one aspect- it's the largest bubble ever so far... BY FAR.

I thought we were finally all past the DENIAL phase and into either the FEAR or PANIC phase. At least the markets have advanced nicely into the PANIC phase. Apparently, we still have a few stragglers.

Oh well, ignorance is bliss, until reality hits you smack on the head. DOH!

Oh we are in the second inning of the recession,. That means in about 4 weeks she should be in the 5th inning a full blown recession and a Manhattan RE crash. At least someone is coming up with a date. Therefore the crash will occur September 23rd according MMafia. I'll be watching condo prices in the West Village to drop significantly be then.

OK professor MMafia from Corleone. I guess we'll see the next oscar winning hit "BUBBLEZILLA" soon.
Please pay your rent and be quite.

Ok, I'll be quite. I'll be quite correct. pwned. now be quiet.

MMAfia:

Look, I consider myself to be pretty realistic, and quite well informed myself (I work in a fund that's up more than 20% this month alone). I don't think we're in the 'first inning,' as you put it - it feels more like the third or fourth. And as to foreclosures specifically in Manhattan, and particularly south of 110th, and precisely within the residential sector - even with resets in the next twelve or so months, I think you're going to see very few foreclosures in prime residential Manhattan real estate south of 110th, and to suggest otherwise is foolish. Some foreclosures - a few? Of course. But in general, very, very few. More likely, we'll simply see more people unable to qualify, or walking on hteir depoits after getting cold feet, etc.

I don't think the market is anywhere remotely NEAR panic yet. Look - in my building (a new build coop in the Village) all of us just closed on our places around August 1. Only one person put their place back on the market immediately as a flip (and not because of market concerns - it had been bought initially as an investment flip). They bought for just under $2MM two years ago (10% down, of course). They had three open houses betweem 9-20 August (after the big mortgage reset and market turmoil) with an asking price over 30% more than the what they initially paid. And remember - this is mid-August - slowsville, in general, for sales to begin with. They have an accepted offer already.

Can I extrapolate an entire market from one sale in my building? Of course not. But what we're hearing about the larger picture, and what I'm seeing and experiencing at a localized level are two very different things. I'm not suggesting that there will be no correction in Manhattan - by I am suggesting that the whole doom-and-gloom scenario is bit overkill.

MMafia, you and your friends use terms like DENIAL, FEAR, PANIC,CRASH quite often. I think these are way too strong words to describe a market correction coming up. Manhattan prices are still going up today....
I may be wrong, but I actually think Manhattan will not see any price decrease at all...maybe 5%.
I bought my condo in February 2002 when you probably would have said the same things you are saying now. If you were always quite correct how come you are still paying rent??

Don't want to pick on MMafia but the only way to judge your forecast is by the accuracy of your past forecasts. Based on your extreme confidence in your predictions you must be a very wealthy person by who likes to rent in Manhattan

pseudonym, even though we have differing opinions, i do appreciate your posts as they are thoughtful and provide some substance that contributes to this forum.

i too work for a multi-strategy fund and also for a fund of hedge funds in the city, and the 'friends' i refer to are esteemed colleagues at some of these institutions. the fund of hedge funds aspect of my work gives me broad exposure and insight to the general landscape as we are on the buy side and get to speak with many many fund managers from around the world everyday. due to conflict of interest regulations, both you and i understand that we have to keep our comments general.

i agree that the local real estate market here in Manhattan is not in panic mode (i was referring to panic in the commercial paper markets and that some people still haven't realized the forthcoming implications). however, given what i've seen and heard, there is a uniformity developing among fund manager across strategies and asset classes- Manhattan real estate is in the early phases already of a downturn, and that is not the question anymore. the question is whether or not it will turn into a bust.

from what i gather, many think that there is a good chance if the following continues to occur:

- more blow-ups in unsuspecting financial areas (as PIMCO's Bill Gross puts it, we're playing the Where is Waldo game except now, everyone looks like Waldo) leading to Wall St bonus cuts and layoffs which have commenced

- more foreclosures due to ARM resets (this one is pretty much guaranteed to happen if you look at the ARM reset schedules, particularly the one CSFB circulated)... this perpetuates the above in a vicious cycle

- real estate slowdown in foreign markets, particularly in London and Asia due to the effects of the credit crisis resulting in general tightening of loan standards making it difficult for people to get mortgages

Local inventory supply is still tight, hence the indication that market instabilities of the past couple of weeks have not yet percolated through to the local real estate market. this is expected as housing is relatively illiquid and is something people cling on to until the very end unlike stock or other forms of more liquid securities. people do live in houses after all.

"however, given what i've seen and heard, there is a uniformity developing among fund manager across strategies and asset classes- Manhattan real estate is in the early phases already of a downturn, and that is not the question anymore"

Gee your good at quoting people from the NY post and the Daily news too as well as your friends who are renting and selling mutual funds. . MMafia get comfy in your beach chair as you are about to get ready for the biggest train wreck in the RE market as well.

How many times do I have to re-iterate that when I post mainstream media articles, it's to discuss how the MAINSTREAM PSYCHOLOGY is getting affected, and to forget about the content itself? Let's try and get past that point already.

Mainstream media is a subjective indicator of the public's perception of what's REALLY going on in Main and Wall street, and assessing that perception has some value, albeit it being subjective.

Spunky - it's "boost", not 'boast", and it's "you're" good, not "your" good.
Don't make me keep correcting your inane posts.

Okay I'm usually multi tasking when I write here so I can count on your anal retentiveness to guide me along the way cmstuck.

it's CMTSUK

Oh i forgot cmstuck and MMAfia are the same person with different screen names. How obvious is that

That's not so, I'm afraid.

Oh I beg to differ nice try though

spunky thinks everyone who disagrees with him/her is the same person.

Stock market up almost 700 poits in a little over a week. What day in September will the recession hit. cumtstuck did I spell recession correctly?

The Dow will meet 11000 before the end of the year.

What's interesting about recent posts on RE blogs. This is just my observation, my two cents and I'm sure many people will disagree, if they care at all.

In previous years, those who were negative on NY RE were largely renters, while those who were positive were largely (i) brokers, (ii) owners and (iii) many about to buy.

NOW, renters are still negative.

NOW, those who are positive sound largely like (i) brokers and (ii) owners (many recent buyers) only. Where are the bullish buyers?

You might be right yournamehere. I'm a buyer (closing Tuesday) and I'm not bullish. Its the right decision for me, we need a bigger place and found one that we can be happy in for a long time. From a purely finacial point of view I don't expect it to be the greatest decision ever. From a family point of view I think its a good decision and we'll be happy for years.

1) Real estate slows down here dramatically after August anyway.
2) As qqq alluded, those with families do not wish to buy and sell and flip from renting to owning their homes every business cycle. I would venture a guess that MMAfia and some of these other people are single and/or without kids.

MMAfia is absolutely correct as this article clearly show.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20070825/ap_on_bi_ge/western_workers_3;_ylt=AodYsQn9kD1ViELjLL31UsgE1vAI

I don't know what is going on but I see prices going up and people are paying the higher prices.

MMAfia:

'...even though we have differing opinions, I do appreciate your posts as they are thoughtful and provide some substance that contributes to this forum...'

Right back 'atcha, kiddo.

It's interesting - I haven't evidenced the total panic you refer to in the commercial paper markets at this point in time. As for a downturn, sure, but I've agreed with the assessment in the past. But I certainly don't see a 'bust' (meaning more than a 30% drop in my nomenclature) taking place - and I see less of a downturn than that in the super prime areas of Manhattan - but a downturn, nonetheless, for sure.

I do agree with you that it is now a certainty that we will see more blow-ups in unsuspecting financial areas leading to Wall St bonus cuts and layoffs, more foreclosures due to ARM resets, and, to some extent, a real estate slowdown in foreign markets. There's no surprise to any of this. On the other hand, I see a massive amount of opportunity in some sectors with the puking out of these assets. There's definitely gold in them thar hills, as far as I can see.

But all of this is no real surprise. Bottom line? When the realization dawns on people that they don't actually understand the value of their investments, the result is lower confidence and higher volatity. And with the derivative engine that ran this mortgage machine (with over 50 different kind of derivative vehicles) combined with the fact that different people value these derivatives in different ways, and there's no paradigm to understand how to valuate these vehicles, the shitstorm was predictable.

This entire situation, simply put, is about the fact that people are beginning to feel that they don't understand the value of their investments.

pseudonym, you hit the nail on the head: we still have no real idea of what we thought was hundreds of billions of dollars is really worth right now.

that is a large sum of money, even in today's inflated fiat 'bretton-woods II' currency system.

the part that really REALLY increases the risk is the absolutely crazy amount of leverage applied to low quality debt.

while nouriel roubini does have a very bearish opinion, this excellent quote from his blog pretty much sums of the craziness or shall we say, greed:

---------------------------------------------------------

"Here are two examples of how uncertainty and opacity has vastly increased in financial markets.
First, you take a bunch of shaky and risky subprime mortgages and repackage them into residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS); then you repackage these RMBS in different (equity, mezzanine, senior) tranches of cash CDOs that receive a misleading investment grade rating by the credit rating agencies; then you create synthetic CDOs out of the same underlying RMBS; then you create CDOs of CDOs (or squared CDOs) out of these CDOs; and then you create CDOs of CDOs of CDOs (or cubed CDOs) out of the same murky securities; then you stuff some of these RMBS and CDO tranches into SIV (structured investment vehicles) or into ABCP (Asset Backed Commercial Paper) or into money market funds. Then no wonder that eventually people panic and run - as they did yesterday – on an apparently “safe” money market fund such as Sentinel. That “toxic waste” of unpriceable and uncertain junk and zombie corpses is now emerging in the most unlikely places in the financial markets.

Second example: today any wealthy individual can take $1 million and go to a prime broker and leverage this amount three times; then the resulting $4 million ($1 equity and $3 debt) can be invested in a fund of funds that will in turn leverage these $4 millions three or four times and invest them in a hedge fund; then the hedge fund will take these funds and leverage them three or four times and buy some very junior tranche of a CDO that is itself levered nine or ten times. At the end of this credit chain, the initial $1 million of equity becomes a $100 million investment out of which $99 million is debt (leverage) and only $1 million is equity. So we got an overall leverage ratio of 100 to 1. Then, even a small 1% fall in the price of the final investment (CDO) wipes out the initial capital and creates a chain of margin calls that unravel this debt house of cards. This unraveling of a Minskian Ponzi credit scheme is exactly what is happening right now in financial markets."

That's old news and so is the 2k scare tactics that were quoted several years ago. Gee has anyone forgotten the stock market has gone up 700 points over the past few days. All of this has been factored in the stock market. You can continue to quoting these doom and gloomers for they have bee quoting an economic crisis for the past 200 years.Oh yeah I forgot this time it's different.
Keep wishing MMAfia and keep renting.

zizizi, that is a real possibility... as mentioned by Marc Faber, i wouldn't be surprised to see a run up to 14,000 or even 15,000 before we get the next leg down... but at the end of the year, there is a very good chance that we could break the 12,000 low.

bottom line is, ARM resets will be shooting up starting October to ~$40 billion per month and will plateau there for most of next year... that's going to make the fallout we've seen thus far pale in comparison as reset amounts this year are well below that number.

Watch out when the effects start to percolate throughout the rest of the markets next month... here's a good video to watch- puts everything into perspective (the interviewer almost bullish in every other interview i've seen him do, but he actually ends up agreeing in this video clip which is very unusual):

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vy9hKn82fzOs.asf

now you wouldn't be surprised to see the dow hit 15,000 before the end of the year and than you feel it will go down to 12,000. Gee you must be a billionaire making all these predictions. Buying the S and P futures to 15000 and selling em short when it gets there. Wow with all the money your making with these forecasts you must be the richest guy on the planet.

On an inflation-adjusted basis, the national median price — the level at which half of all homes are more expensive and half are less — is not likely to return to its 2007 peak for more than a decade, according to Moody’s Economy.com, a research firm.

I agree with Moody's and wouldn't be surprised if it took longer...

charles has a pretty good synopsis of the reason why i think so
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogaug07/RE-retrace.html

"...Anger toward developers is coming to a head as a record number of units are nearing completion. Manhattan will have 6,444 new condominiums completed this year, compared with 1,614 in 2005, according to Halstead Development Marketing. In Brooklyn, 3,768 units should be finished this year, compared with 480 in 2005..."

I know this is impossible because all the experts say it can't happen but wouldn't it be ironic if real estate prices in Manhattan continue to go up in 2008.

won't it be ironic if it turns out that pigs can, after all, fly?

btw, isn't it ironic how nyc is so different from the rest of the country that its price appreciation chart is closed to the national average than any other individual city?

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2007/08/25/business/20070826_HOUSING_GRAPHIC.html#

I agree it would be foolish to disagree with all the experts who state a crash in Manhattan apt is imminent. It would also be foolish to disagree with everyone who states that the prices of real estate in Manhattan will be falling over the next two years. But yes wouldn't it be ironic if in the year 2010 that real estate prices in Manhattan end up being higher than they would be today.

To spunky: Risk vs. reward, baby. Risk vs. reward.

yes, spunky, the average 1BR will cost 3,700,000...

... Japanese Yen.

The bitter renters make me laugh. Inventory in Manhattan is at a multi-year low. Rents continue to rise. And there is an unlimited supply of affluent professionals who want to live here, with more coming in every year. If you're a bitter renter waiting for a significant decline in prices, you're gonna be a bitter renter for the rest of your life.

Too bad I'm not a bitter renter and that I'm not looking to purchase in Manhattan any time soon. I'm glad I made you laugh though :)

MMAfia yeah your not a renter but sooner or later you have to move out of your parents house.

pseudonym, looks like mainstream media has finally understood why the Manhattan rental market has stopped appreciating... thanks to the slowdown in commercial rentals, they've finally made the connection. look for more to come regarding residential.

the left foot's connected to the ... right foot... the right foot's connected to the...

"Manhattan Gets Taste of Real Estate Crunch"
http://www.nypost.com/seven/08272007/business/manhattan_gets_taste_of_real_e.htm

heck, this is funny. I am actually cloing on a new unit, for alot more money then it worth. i will probably lose 10-20% over the next 5 year. I dont care...However what amuses me is the near conensus from every expert"and fund manager" that Real estate will crash in NYC. It only make me feel that my pesimisium may be unfounded. The one thing ive learned in inveting my own money for a living, is that the consenus is always WRONG! I have made millions baed on buying what other dont want, or insist is going down. I agree, that the mortgage mess and other issues are very troubling for NYC real estate, and I dont know what will save the market. I do, know that if every smart guy, magizine, fund manger etc keeps insisting NYC is doomed then ultimatly RE wont crash. The "HERD" is always wrong.......6 months of 87 market recovered, 97, 98 same thing. Even the debalacle in 2000 was over in 2002...2 wholle years for the worst stock bubble ever and the broad index of stocks are at new highs 5 years later. Nobody knows what ultimatly will happen, but I can say with certanty that when everyone has jumped ship, its time to take the helm....I would start buying housing investements here and going forward.....they may not be going up...but the bottom is close at hand.

my SSSSS key isnt workin please insert "s" where needed

I agree but these NY Post articles that this kid MMAfia is quoting from his parents 2 BR cape in central NJ are quite convincing. According to all the newspapers and experts, we are heading for a crash in the Manhattan RE market. We are also assured a recession as well. It's a lock.

mikemargin, HERD mentality applies more when a general trend has been firmly established and people are entrenched in it.

when there is an inflection point, there really is no HERD yet, as people are caught in between, trying to figure out which way things will go.

we are at that inflection point when it comes to Manhattan (although other parts of the country, such as Miami is fully entrenched in a general trend already).

iTulip.com has decent literature regarding this using historical examples of manias.

The Dutch tulip bubble has been grossly misunderstood and incorrectly written about/reported on in the past. I STRONGLY recommend one and all to read the newly released (and incredibly scholarly book) titled "Tulipmania: Money, Honor, and Knowledge in the Dutch Golden Age" by Anne Goldgar. Very erudite, and fascinating reading.

Yada yada. Meanwhile, elsewhere, the rating agencies are busy making nasty with the mortgage servicers, effectively shutting down some major shops.

Dam I hope wall street wakes up and pays attention. The dam stock market should be crashing. Also please let's get the prices down in Manhattan's real estate market.. Don't owners realize we are heading into a recession and what about the upcoming a sub prime crisis that's anyone who is anyone should know about. Head for hills. Don't they listen to all the experts? Wake up Manhattan! sell, sell sell!

"Tulipmania: Money, Honor, and Knowledge in the Dutch Golden Age" by Anne Goldgar. Very erudite, and fascinating reading.

Haven't read that one... but will! :)

re #91 - I know spunky's being sarcastic, but stumbles upon a good point nonetheless. When there's a suspicion that prices in an asset may be peaking (or have already peaked), isn't it a good idea to take some money off the table?

For people who've had big appreciation in their Manhattan RE, why not consider getting a home equity line (with no or low prepayment penalties) and drawing on it? If your value sinks, you've got the cash in hand, and if it stays strong, couldn't you just pay it off?

The reason why the inventory in Manhattan is declining and reaching an all time low versus the rest of the country whose inventory is increasing and reaching an all time high is because the owners of Manhattan RE don't get it. They are not as sophisticated as the rest of the country. They just don't know when to fold em when everyone else is and when to hold em when everyone else does. The worse thing to do when the RE market is slowing or in a recession by itself is to be patient and wait it out whether it be 2 yrs, 5 yrs 10 yrs etc. Why don't Manhattan's owners get it like the rest of country. What are they stupid or something.

Right on, spunky, and consumer confidence is down to 2001 level, which surely isn't going to have any effect either. Manhattan inventory is going to continue going lower and lower until it'll finally become negative in mid 2008, when they start selling fractional condo units.

"The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index now stands at 105, down from 111.9 in July. The Present Situation Index decreased to 130.3 from 138.3 in July. The Expectations Index declined to 88.2 from 94.4."

Zizi Sept 1st is coming up please send me your rent check for I need your rent check to pay off my mortgage payment and with the money left over I need to buy my girlfriend some sexy lingerie.We are going to fun that night with a little help from you. Now isn't that ironic. MMAfia your rent will also be due as well.

Grow up.

Oh cumstuck with a name like yours I wouldn't talk. BTW did I spell it wrong

cumsuk your rent is due the 1st as well no exceptions.

spunky baby, you're in the business of losing a little on every transaction but making it up in volume, yes?