Is it time to buy an apt in Manahattan?

Nobody is sure what is going to happen with the Real Estate market in Manhattan but the signs are it is going to slow down a bit. Again, it doesn't mean the prices will come down drastically. Waiting till 2009 might not help you as the chances are the interest rates will go up again so you might want to take advantage of the low rates and buy in the near future. You might want to wait another 2 to 3 months and see where the market goes.

thank you!

I think now is a great time to get a good price and a good interest rate. It's a buyers market. Most buyers are bottom-feeding these days.

I think your question is way too general to give any kind of serious, informed answer.

Where are you looking to buy?
What's your budget?
How big a unit?
What's you realistic time horizon re: ownership?
Do you have kids, and if so what ages are they? If not, are you planning to have kids?
How much (assuming you get a favorable mortgage) do you plan to put down?
Based on your total cash on hand, as well as your total net worth, what percentage is your down payment?
What's your approximate income(s), and how stable (based on a realistic guess) are your career paths?

Opinions can be offered based on more info....

If you stay in the market long enough, it doesn't matter when you buy (in 90% of cases.)

Just like all other investments, there are risks associated with New York real estate. If you want low risk and want a solid investment, consider buying in the far West Village or specific parts of the Upper East and West Sides. Prices are less likely to dip in these areas. If you can tolerate moderate risk, consider places like Chelsea, Hell's Kitchen or the East Village. And if you can manage a greater amount of risk and can stay put for several years, consider emerging areas like Williamsburg, LES and perhaps the Financial District. And of course there are certain units that because of their features (outdoor space, layout, space, etc.) will retain their values in this current market no matter what. In the end though, I think one of the best things about buying now is that you have options and there is time to consider many factors when buying. In early 2007, you didn't have those options. If you didn't put in an offer over asking at the Open House you were left out. I decided to buy in Williamsburg and as able to find the perfect unit for me from all the choices available. I plan to stay put for a few years and will weather out the overdevelopment.

my dad likes to say "The deal of a lifetime gets made everyday".

At a certain price anything can be a bargain. If you can find an eager/scared seller, then now could be a great time to buy.

malraux's questions are spot on. They need to be addressed to make your own decision.

Personally, I think the future will be an even better time to buy. Right now the market is nervous. I'd like to buy when it's in an outright panic. Timing that is just about impossible.

I am a true believer in regard to buying in the Financial District. I did it myself (full disclosure!) I really think this is a great area and will take off hugely in the next few years, especially when the WTC development gets finished. I live in the Fulton St area.. great transportation center regardless of what they do with the building.

Prices at the new construction sites are soft so there is usually room to negotiate, particularly on closing costs. So check it out. I thought I'd hate it but I love it.

Generally, I think you'll be fine in 6 years anywhere in Manhattan, probably fine in 2.5 years. I don't see any huge declines on the horizon. Given today's bad housing news coupled with Lehman's good outlook, I think we're close to hitting the bottom nationally. So could be some modest declines here and there and general flatness in Manhattan for a couple of years, but nothing awful. Not sure anything worth waiting for, given that even with recent increases, interest rates are at historic lows. So, it really depends on you.

Tony, any recommendations on places to check out in FiDi? Thanks in advance.

Fedup, I really like 90 William, the District and 80 John. 90 William and 80 John are pretty much finished and sold out so selection might be limited but they might be more willing to negotiate, also more secure since they've already closed on a lot of units. I've heard good things about 45 John and 99 John as well. I prefer the places near the Fulton Street station and think they have more potential for appreciation whether or not they develop it into a new Grand Central Station.

25 Broad is very nice but has lousy views and is only about 30% sold. Setai is nice but high priced. I didn't like 20 Pine... could just be I like to actually see a unit before I buy it.

thank you Malraux!
the answers to your questions:
Where are you looking to buy? in Manhattan
What's your budget? 450
How big a unit? possibly a one bedroom condo
What's you realistic time horizon re: ownership? Investment
How much do you plan to put down? I got a loan based on my apt.'s worth so I can pay cash
What's your approximate income(s), and how stable (based on a realistic guess) are your career paths? my carreer is stable

Don't wait- just do it all ready!

Might be tough to find a one bedroom for 450K in Manhattan. You might be able to find a studio.

you might find a 400sq studio coop for that price.

Tony,
Fidi is never a good investment for few reasons.
1) high maintenance
2) bad traffic
3) Lack of "home" feel

Just for the record liv8 note spelling of "already" Am sure you were joking:)

FiDi if you can get in now will be "The Place" to live in a few years. All the new dev are at least 50% sold or more. Once these buildings are actually occupied you will see an even more vibrant 24 hour commnuity. Yes! I said 24 hour. Why because of all the hotels that is being built here.

Wait until 2015, There will be more aging population in Manhattan to dump their properties in the market. Wait until 2099, there will even be more. Patience is virtue!

evavoom:

450K in a solid Manhattan location doesn't sound like a possibility right now.

evavoom - It will be to tough to find a 1 bed for $450 unless it is above 96th street,out of Manhattan, is in need of complete renovation, monthlies are ridiculously high or the building is just bad news. Coop is out if you want to rent it out. A condup would work. Problem with renovations is that it will be vacant for months and there will be no income stream. And of course the cost. You may have to look at a studio or increase your budget slightly.

evavoom - unfortunately you can't even get a one bedroom in Central Harlem for that much. Good Luck!

evavoom, you can find a small to medium-sized 1br for that price or less at the far-eastern end of Alphabet City, between Aves C & D. East 3rd St, the addresses 311, 317 and 327 (which is I think on the corner of Ave D) comes to mind in particular. However, some of the buildings there are former or current HDFC, and some have income restictions. Most are co-ops, not condos. All of that will impact the quality of investment. You'd be far from the train and close to the projects of Ave D. Even Ave C below 6th St is ugly. One saving grace is East River park, which is finally getting it's promenade and looking good.

You can also get a nice-sized 1br for that price or less in Co-op Village on the Lower East Side: Seward Park, Amalgamated, Hillman and East River Houses. Again, not sure how the co-op policies affect investment possibilities.

WOW. Julie & Dori are HOT at TREGNY.

is

Kary:

West 156th + St. Nicholas Avenue is hardly an area I'd buy in right now as an investment.

As you admit yourself - "We will be dropping our price."

I'm sure that area has a high potential for serious downside. And you're still $70K above the specified limit.

Kary, this is not craigslist. Stop posting your damn apartment on this board, you have been asked nicely a couple of times.

Watch out for those tax abatements expiring. in 5-10 years time, the market will be FLOODED with properities. Do you really think the current owners can afford the non-tax abated montly tax??

As the tax abatement wears off, the price of the unit should decrease to compensate.

Not that I am a fan of property taxes, but I highly doubt that their increase after the abatements end would actually drive anyone to sell their property. Also, they are deductable for some, and hopefully, with AMT reform, they will be deductable for all by that time.

No need to threaten. I was making a point that you can find a great 2 bdrm in manhattan for a great price. People on this board are stuck in the proven neighborhoods. I have made lots from real estate money over the years buying property in the "what if" neighborhoods. I bought my first property in San Francisco's Ingleside neighborhood. It was one of those neighborhood much like St. Nicholas, and now it's almost an untouchable neighborhood just like almost all of San Francisco.

If you buy in an up and coming neighborhood you must be willing to keep the property for a few years to wait for the neighborhood to turnaround. Neighborhoods do turn around in cities like San Francisco and New York.

Kary, 156th is hardly considered manhattan. You are better off living and communiting from jersey city.

That's exactly what I'm talking about...Stuck!

bugelrex and will: Maybe my experience was unusual, but before I gave up on new construction, I visited a number of buildings/sales offices where the broker said things like "you'll be selling in 5 years" when I asked about the tax abatement. I thought it was very weird, and I wonder how many people heard the same thing and are planning on it?

Kary, a number of us on this board believe that many parts of the market are softening, and that marginal properties, such as those in "what if" neighborhoods, are already down with a long ways to go. Now is probably a pretty bad time to take that risk, and the fact you keep pimping your own apartment makes your investment advice even more suspect.

It wasn't a threat, I just asked you to stop (as others have). Your post had nothing to do with opening people's minds to other areas of Manhattan. It was clearly an advertisement for your property. So stop advertising your property and stop bullshitting us that you are actually trying to add some value to the conversation, when all you are doing is advertising your property.

I bought my apartment and year ago and the only reason I am selling it is because I bought the place of my dreams (which is also in northern Harlem). I realize selling after owning for such a short time in a "what if " neighborhood if cutting my profit. My point is investing in this area is one of the best areas to invest in in NYC. Don't even bother with Jersey city.

Kary:

"...People on this board are stuck in the proven neighborhoods..."

And for good reason.

"...I have made lots from real estate money over the years buying property in the 'what if' neighborhoods...."

Yes, maybe in a consistently expanding market as of five years ago, perhaps. But in the current economic environment, with 20+ years of Manhattan residential real estate behind me, I think you're an idiot if you think that currently buying in a "...what if neighborhood..." and plan "...to keep the property for a few years..." is a prudent investment methodology.

If anybody is stuck, it sounds like you are - at being a hack.

That's okay. I'll make the money that you are going to miss out on. Why are you calling me names, because you're anonymous? I am sure I wouldn't let you near me in person. And if I knew people like you moved into my neighborhood, I would have to use the catch phrase "There goes the neighborhood".

As far as adding to this blog, a point I must make about the St. Nicholas neighborhood is that the people living around here are the nicest people I have ever met in NY.

Kary:

Good for you. Make your "...money that (I am) going to miss out on..." Mazel Tov. Maybe you should host one of those 'Flip My House' shows featured on the House and Garden channel.

I have no interest in coming "...near (you) in person..." I'm glad you like the St. Nicholas neighborhood. I personally don't invest in areas where a priority is whether or not the "... the people living around here are the nicest people I have ever met in NY...." I only invest based on the bottom line numbers, and how those numbers are impacted by the current environment. I really don't care if the people at 15 CPW or 31 West 11th are 'nice,' or not. I just care about the ROR.

Kary, I think you are insane if you are still thinking about profits on your St Nicholas property. From the response on this board, you will probably need to be prepared to take a significant loss on your original purchase price - that is, in order to unload it you will have to accept someone paying less for your apartment than you did. Even selling at a loss, I think it's going to be difficult for you to find a buyer in that neighborhood.

Amity, Have you ever been in this neighborhood? Probably not. One of the best things about buying up here is you get a great price!!! I will not lose money on this sell. I bought a sponsor unit that needed work. First time home buyers should follow suit. Don't buy from an investor that is only looking at the bottom line. I lived in a building where the neighbors wouldn't even speak a word to me in the elevator. What kind of life style is that?

On a related topic, what would most people consider the time frame for "flipping" a property? For example, would a property that was bought in 2004 and relisted in 2007/2008 be considered a property flip? How much appreciation would be reasonable? 10%? 20%? 30%?

Kary, I am not a first-time home buyer, and I think any sane person realizes that the most important thing when looking at any property is the bottom line. No matter how much I love a property, I would always be thinking about the resale value. No matter how wonderful your neighborhood is, I would never live that far away from mainstream Manhattan no matter what. If it makes you feel any better, I would never live in Battery Park City or the Financial District either. Why don't you post ads in your local supermarket or other such outlet? You may capture people who already live in your neighborhood and may be looking for a new apartment. This board is the WRONG FORUM. Your posts are unbelievably irritating, and they only make you look pathetic and desperate. You don't see anyone else blatantly trying to hawk their unsellable apartments, do you?

I've never met such mean people! Everybody pushes their neighborhoods: midtown, ues, uws, so what is wrong with pushing northern harlem. Is it because you don't like it?

Kary, you're not pushing a neighborhood - you're pushing your specific apartment that you're desperately trying to sell. This is not a board about neighborhoods that are up and coming - there are other boards on that topic. Why are you so rudely insistent on forcing your apartment on people who have already indicated in many ways that they don't want to hear about it??? It makes your apartment and you look worse and worse. You started out as a laughingstock, but now I think you should be blocked from streeteasy for being a persistent pest. Your constant efforts to advertise your apartment are extremely inappropriate. This is not the forum for that.

I'm am not trying to be rude, but you are out of line. I made 1 reference to where it see my apartment yesterday. (20 hours ago to be precise.) I can't erase that blog. So read the current blogs why don't you. If anybody needs to be blocked from this Streeteasy site are people like you who throw around insults and wrong accusations.

I've got to agree with Kary on one thing. This is one of the nastiest blogs I've been on. I wish people would tone it down and stick with the issues. Everyone in this world is trying to sell something, wherever they are and wherever they can.

It's still all overpriced. Rent a while.

I'd say we should admire Kary for having the cojones to discuss a neighborhood that too many on these threads poo-poo. Where does it say that streeteasy is only for high-flyin' Masters of the Universe types with excessive testosterone running thru their systems? And a putrid sort of investment banker snobbery???
Lighten up, people. Lots of Manhattanites live uptown . . . and all over the place. Ever hear of art or artists? Or is that just a commodity you want to purchase.
Some people owe Kary an apology.

"...I will not lose money on this sell...."

It's not even a matter of whether you'll LOSE money - the issue is whether you'll MAKE any in the next 3-5 year time line, given the current economic environment.

"...Don't buy from an investor that is only looking at the bottom line...."

First of all, that is what an investor does - look at the bottom line first. Secondly, the OP clearly said they were buying for investment, Kary - please re-read post #12 by the OP. They're not buying a home - they're LEVERAGING their home to buy an investment property! The 'bottom line' is all that matters in this specific discussion - not the neighborhood, or the nice people in your building.

"...I lived in a building where the neighbors wouldn't even speak a word to me in the elevator. What kind of life style is that?..."

My god, welcome to New-f*ckin'-York, Kary! Perhaps you should consider moving to the Mid-West if social interchange in the hallways is such a crucial part of your emotional hygiene! The Manhattan lifestyle is predicated on many other benefits and experiences aside from people chatting with you in the elevator.

"...Everybody pushes their neighborhoods: midtown, ues, uws, so what is wrong with pushing northern harlem. Is it because you don't like it?..."

As far as sheer investment potential over the next 3-5 year time horizon, no, I don't like Harlem. Can I be any clearer? I think Harlem's potential as a net negative investment is highly probable over the next five years if you buy right now. I think in comparison to the investment potential of other Manhattan areas, Harlem is not as competitive, and falls towards the bottom end when compared against others areas with greater possibility for economic return. The problem with the better investment areas is that there is a higher financial barrier to entry.

It's not about "pushing" a specific neighborhood over any other - I have no emotional attachment to anything whan it comes to an investment other than maximizing the bottom line.

What is of value being discussed is the lurking subject of what happens to up-and-coming neighborhoods if the economy stalls or goes south. Prevailing wisdom is that the fringes pull back first. 156 St is most definitely a fringe. With the softening market, look what is happening in Williamsburg and Greenpoint and LIC already. New construction is being hit first. Some of the new developments that were started when anything could be sold are now getting the first taste of the boom being over--at least for the time being. Quirky (read: badly laid out apartments or those with oddities that are liabilities) apartments that people were buying like mad in the last few years now languish on the market. Speculating on a marginal neighborhood changing for the better as we enter the current new RE cycle entails more risk than ever since 2000--maybe since 1990. Fed policy is fanning fears of inflation so the 30-year fixed rates are psychotic in the last few weeks. Anyone who works at investment houses, the largest law firms, or who is connected to private equity knows that in-house management is preparing for all sorts of economic doom and gloom for the next year or two, at least. It is simply a recipe for disaster for RE speculators in non-prime properties.

Re: expiration of tax abatements...the impact will be significant as they expire. I disagree that buyers fully appreciate the impact this has. Carrying charges can easily double on many properties. And deductible or not, it still costs an owner much more. As this happens in new developments over the next 5-10 years, all those apts that were so pretty when new will at the same time begin to look a little dog-eared and not so shiny and construction-quality issues will be emerging if they exist. Resales could be a real challenge and appreciation will be severely impacted. In a go-go-go economy, these things get overlooked. My point is there is plenty of room for very deliberate thinking about risks upon entering the market today. The risks may be acceptable to some buyers, but others who were counting on 10% appreciation a year have to really rethink what the investment means in a more difficult and uncertain economy. Rushing to put all your eggs in a basket on 156 St may not be the best choice today.

I agree with will and actually think Kary's neighborhood is quite nice and that is should be looked at by people as an option. I just don't want streeteasy to turn into craigslist.

stevejhx, still waiting to hear your expert economic analysis regarding inventory levels and how that impacts pricing in Manhattan. Especially based on your comparisons to Miami.

And to poorishlady:

They're nothing bad about discussing neighborhoods of all types - that's one of the cool things about streeteasy, I think. Something for everybody.

As to "...a putrid sort of investment banker snobbery...," I'll tell you this much - when someone opens a thread specifically dealing the fact that they want to leverage their home in order to make an financial investment, nobody cares about "...lots of Manhattanites liv(ing) uptown . . . and all over the place. Ever hear of art or artists?..."

Indeed, it IS a commodity one wants to purchase - and I'll tell you this much for sure - if it was YOUR money that you were investing, and the goal was to get the kind of return that could potentially make your (and/or your family's) life better, you suddenly wouldn't be so concerned about artists or excessive testosterone or investment banker snobbery or anything else for that matter - because if you LOST all your money on your deal, that would be ALL you suddenly cared about.

Knock of the holier-than-thou cloaking of yourself in self rightousness. This thread was started by someone who wanted specific investment advice - not a emotional hand wringing diatribe.

"Where does it say that streeteasy is only for high-flyin' Masters of the Universe types with excessive testosterone running thru their systems?"

poorishlady, read your last couple posts on this thread and others. You've taken more shots at people than Dick Cheney. Nothing worse than a hypocrite.

Juiceman and Malraux ---- Uh ---- this thread was started by someone who wants to know if they can buy a 1 bedroom in Manhattan for $450K. Look back and see!! And Kary's actually got concrete advice for that buyer --- as opposed to many respondents who just said "impossible."
Yeah -- I'm taking "shots" at some of the big talkers who think Manhattan only consists of the shiney areas with condos for 2M and up ---- Sorry I hurt your feelings, JuiceMan, but if the shoe fits . . .
Come on, guys, let's broaden the discussion.
We're not all Masters of the Universe like you two seem to be.
Quit bullying Kary's voice. Yeah, she's trying to sell her unit. Isn't that less offensive that urbandigs and his constant pandering for new clients and his cronies on this board?

It's obvious who is full of testosterone. So go let off some steam somewhere else.

Kary --- do you mean me or JuiceMan or Malraux? (Joke.)
Malraux ---- Look at your obnoxious reply to Evavoon who started this thread. You shut her/him down by basically saying 450K couldn't buy a one bedroom in Manhattan. And you're wrong!!!!!

Not you Poorishlady. You backed me up! I spend all day staring at this blog. I'm out of here.

poorishlady ---Uh---:

I'll say the same thing to you that I said to Kary -

Read the OP
Read my query to the OP in post 5
Read OP's response to my query in post 12

The OP is looking to leverage the value of their home in order to invest in Manhattan real estate. They are NOT (repeat, NOT) buying a home where they are concerned with neighborhoods and artists and saying 'howdy-do' in the elevator to their neighbors. This is an INVESTMENT.

I-N-V-E-S-T-M-E-N-T.

I also acknowledged quite clearly in my response above that "...The problem with the better investment areas is that there is a higher financial barrier to entry...." That's why my basic advice to the OP was that it was better for them at this specific point in time to 'hold,' rather than to 'buy.' And certainly NOT to invest in Harlem at any price, whether it be $450K or $2MM, at least for the time being.

And it's also interesting that Kary logged back on and can only ape your commentary about testosterone, rather than respond in any meaningful or critical way to my last post regarding her statements. Stay on point, ladies. It doesn't matter whether you're male or female. It's not about testosterone or estrogen. Stop being so sexist! It's bottom-line, fundamental investment strategy we're talking about here for someone who wants to LEVERAGE the value of their home! Emaotions shouldn't enter into the discussion. As I said earlier, the only thing you'd REALLY be emotional about is if you lost your investment (and possibly your home as well!) due to a lousy investment strategy - then, believe me, you'd see what emotions are REALLY like!

Kary, is your apt. 930 Saint Nicolas Ave (155) Apt#: 28? I see it on the www.tregny.com website you pointed to but it doesn't come up if I search streeteasy. Perhaps because there's a h missing from St. NicHolas in the tregny website. To get your apartment sold you want it to come up in as many online searches as possible including Streeteasy and NY Times.
I know this post is off topic but had no other way to contact Kary.

Have fun out in the sunshine, Kary!! I'm going out, too, gotta walk my dog.
Evavoom: Malraux has one opinion about Harlem. But he's assuming you are searching for an investment more than for an investment/cum place to live.
I'd definitely consider a condo in Harlem if I were you ------- and also in Washington Heights (there are Corcoran listings for condos on Riverside Dr). If you want to consider a coop, then you have even wider possibilities. There are one bedrooms on the upper east side for $450k.

qqq you brought it up not me. I never noticed the h missing. I'll get on that right away!

Poorishlady, I don't care what neighborhood people live in or if someone's place is worth $300k or $30M. I just don't want to read bullshit advertisements on a board built for discussions. If you had a shred of common sense, you would have had understood that from my last few posts.

malraux, don't waste your time. I-N-V-E-S-T-M-E-N-T doesn't spell C-O-M-M-O-N S-E-N-S-E, and these two need a whole lot more of that before being able to understand your words. See you at Castle Grayskull.

poorishlady:

Please read below. I have copied the OP's response from post 12 here just for you....

"thank you Malraux!
the answers to your questions:
Where are you looking to buy? in Manhattan
What's your budget? 450
How big a unit? possibly a one bedroom condo
What's you realistic time horizon re:ownership? Investment
How much do you plan to put down? I got a loan based on my apt.'s worth so I can pay cash
What's your approximate income(s), and how stable (based on a realistic guess) are your career paths? my carreer is stable"

So, poorish lady, let me ask you this - what part of "...I got a loan based on my apt.'s worth..." and "...What's you realistic time horizon re: ownership? Investment..." don't you understand? I just don't know how I can make it any clearer to you. There's no "assumption" here on my part - the OP spoke very, very clearly.

I-N-V-E-S-T-M-E-N-T.

So here's my question to you. Now that it has been made as clear as glass to you that this is for investment, and that the OP is LEVERAGING THEIR HOME in order to make said investment, do you really believe that given a 3-5 time horizon, and the amount of $450K, that Harlem real estate is the best possible MAnhattan real estate value to be found, as all the OP cares about is ROR?

(God, sometimes you have beat people over the damn head just to them see a simple fact. How many time did I write above to read the posts, and that the OP clearly sid this was an investment situation, etc.?)

Lighten up. I am reading this thread because the OP said is it a good time to buy or should I wait. Arguing that she is buying for an investment as proof that you are right does not add any value. For me I am thankful that someone is bringing up a price range somewhere below 15CPW.

Yes, lighten up. Malraux and Juice are still making wild assumptions up above. It's definitely a good time to buy, and it will remain a good time to buy for quite a while it seems. Now is good because sales are sluggish and you can move at a human pace with all the paperwork, negotiation, etc.
And YES, there are apartments in Manhattan for 450k, one bedroom. Lovely apartments in decent areas. I'm not a broker. Just a Manhattanite.

I'm just curious. If now is an unqualified good time to buy: what would you say is a bad or cautionary time to buy?

poorishlady:

"...Malraux and Juice are still making wild assumptions up above..."

And pray tell, exactly what assumptions are you referring to, poorishlady? Be specific, please.

"...And YES, there are apartments in Manhattan for 450k, one bedroom. Lovely apartments in decent areas. I'm not a broker. Just a Manhattanite..."

No one ever disagreed with this. I am sure one can find 'lovely one bedroom apartments in Manhattan' for even LESS than $450K.

---(sigh)---

And once again, we return to the OP's specific issue, which sadly, even after repeated clarifications, poorishlady (and Kary) seem totally and completely unable to comprehend and respond to accordingly. The question is not whether one can find and buy a one bedroom in Manhttan for $450K (or less).

The question posited by the OP was "Is an area where I can find a $450K one bedroom apartment going to be a wise investment, based on the fact that I am going to have leverage the equity in my existing home in order to make the investment?"

Let's look at the key phrases one more time, poorishlady (and Kary) -

1.) A GOOD INVESTMENT.

2.) LEVERAGING THE EQUITY OF MY HOME TO MAKE THE INVESTMENT.

And so, once again, I will ask you the same exact question I asked in my post three posts above this -

"So here's my question to you. Now that it has been made as clear as glass to you that this is for investment, and that the OP is LEVERAGING THEIR HOME in order to make said investment, do you really believe that given a 3-5 time horizon, and the amount of $450K, that Harlem real estate is the best possible MAnhattan real estate value to be found, as all the OP cares about is ROR?"

So poorishlady, don't waffle, don't mince, don't accuse others of 'wild assumptions' when you've been proved otherwise, don't talk about that it's easy to find lovely one bedrooms in Manhattan at a variety of price points. Just answer the OP's (and my) question - would you be willing to leverage the value of YOUR HOME, in order to invest $450K in a Harlem one bedroom, given a 3-5 time line and the current socio-economic environment in Manhattan? Would you be willing to put YOUR PERSONAL money ON THE LINE because you think that it would be a wise INVESTMENT and provide a good RETURN on your money? Is the RISK of the current mortgage and real estate shudder in NYC not significant enough in your mind that you would counsel the OP that the RISK of LEVERAGING THEIR HOME is a prudent and wise financial strategy right now?

Just answer the question and quit kvetching. Yes or no, and why or why not?

I'm basically discussing places to live in for five years or longer that will be nice homes/good investments. I didn't use the term "unqualified." Now is a good time to buy because prices are soft and there's plenty of time and room to negotiate. You don't have to deal with brokers' hype that goes along with a hot market. And if you're looking at coops, you've got pretty much to pick from. If your financials are good, you're in very good shape. It's a difficult time for coop owners who want to sell their coop of residence and buy a new coop ------- because of the softness in the selling market. But if you're just looking to buy, it's much easier and do-able, and the interest rates are good. I've been looking at one bedrooms/convertible twos all over Manhattan and I've found quite a few that would do nicely for a single person or a couple who don't plan on kids. No one is snapping them up; there's plenty of room to negotiate.

I always develop the biggest crush on malraux when his logic is sufficiantly irritated by someone's obstinate point-missing idiocy that he goes on one of his beautifully crafted hyper-quotey tears! :-)

poorsih;ady:

If it's five years or longer (in my mind, significantly longer like 7 or more) I think that you might come out okay, as long as you don't have to suddenly sell due to financial, personal, or career reversals, which is why I initially asked the OP to specify a bit more regarding their intentions. There is indeed more room to negotiate on price and less hype recently, but as I said earlier in my post to the OP, I think (especially in the area that we're discussing) that it will only get better for buyers in the next 6-12 months, and so I think the OP is wiser to hold for now. I'm still not convinced that a one bedroom in the specific area we're discussing will be a wise investment even then, because I think an area like Harlem could get smacked very, very hard for real estate investors, and the recovery time could take 20%-50% longer to 'come back' than areas considered to be more 'prime.'

The idea of leveraging one's home under these conditions to invest in this area is not for the faint of heart. I think the downside risk is too great, and that the OP would be wiser looking at a studio for $450K in a more 'prime' location downtown, or closer to Columbia Univerity where students populations are consistent and studio/one beds can be rented out with greater ease on a regular basis.

What is this op going to do to this investment? Buy it cheap, renovate it then sell fast? Now is definitely not the time for that anywhere.

malraux you spend too much time writing monographs on these forums. shouldn't you be out hunting for the next investment grade property?!

superquant:

I only do 2-3 properties per annum, max. And I will be out tomorrow in the Village poking around just to see how nervous people are getting. Sorry if reading longer, detailed posts taxes your cerebral cortex. Perhaps you should try www.kiddiecircle.com instead?

did you check out Mr Elephant's Spelling Game? actually pretty sweet.

Malraux ---- chill, buddy. Do some deep breathing. Factor in people who do 2-3 properties per fifteen years . . .
They too may enjoy these threads. Widen your circle, son.

So Malraux, are you saying that doomsday is about to arrive?

I am! Doomsday, bring it!

Where is Spunky when we need him?

Spunky was confused by the upside down blog and trying to find his way back. jk. his "misses" is probably keeping him busy.

any current recommendations in manhattan.

"Malraux and Juice are still making wild assumptions up above"

poorishlady, what assumptions are those?

"Factor in people who do 2-3 properties per fifteen years"

hmmm, don't you think that is why people use this blog? To ask people with lots of experience for opinions when they may have a lot less experience? Isn't that why you, poorishlady, logged on here for the first time? Weren't you trying to sell your place and needed some input from people that have experience?

jmcbyr8, I think any of the established neighborhoods are good medium and long term investments. The emerging neighborhoods are kind of risky in the short run (short run being the next 24 months). My guess (and I admit, it is a guess), we will see some sluggish price appreciation in some neighborhoods, a small price decline in others, and general flatness for the next year to 18 months. There are a lot of other factors that make Manhattan different, kind of its own country, that have been repeated over and over again on this blog (it's the center of the universe, everyone wants to live here, just 22 square miles, foreign investment, low inventory, etc.) but I think the two things that will avoid any radical depreciation are low inventory and foreign investment. Even NYU Prof. Roubini, one of the most bearish econonomist, suggests that the most decline Manhattan would see the next two years is 10%. No doubt the national economy is in for a rough ride the next 6-12 months.

So if you are looking for a place to live and hang your hat for more than five years, I think any place is a good investment. Also, I don't think it's worth waiting if you are waiting for significant declines in Manhattan. Price drops could be higher in the other bouroughs. I think things will stablize in the next 24 months and we'll have a general period of slower growth and sluggish appreciation for a few years. Then probably be back in business for more rapid appreciation in the next 5-7 years.

One area I find very interesting is the Financial District. I think it may take five years, but once the World Trade Center area is re-developed and the Fulton Street Station is built (in some shape or form but note that it already is a major transportation hub), I think it has tremendous potential to appreciate at a quick rate. Mainly because one of the hottest areas in Manhattan is Tribeca and once the WTC work is finished, the Financial District will blend in with Tribeca, and possibly be even more attractive because of its proximity to the seaport, etc. Could be it will become "South Tribeca."

Again, I wouldn't go to FiDi to flip or if you're going to only stay a couple of years, but if your timeframe is 5-7 years at least, take a look. Also, it's a great time to bargain over closing costs and maybe even price.

Soemthing no one discusses is how real estate will be affected if we enter a period of inflation that drives up lending rates along with everything else--except perhaps RE.

What do you think about Washington Heights---- is that as "fringy" as Harlem? If it is very close to the 1 train, would this make it desirable enough for, for instance, Columbia students to rent there? Does anyone have a sense of a studio rental price, should one want to buy and rent out a condo in the Washington Heights are?
Thank you.

area

petite, I think these areas should be fine with at least a 5-7 year time frame... would not plan on flipping there and be prepared for a rough ride and anxiety about depreciation for 12-18 months.

Washington Heights: Columbia is and will be doing massive building uptown because of bio-tech research (unleashing stem-cell research after W is cleaned out of the WH). And so there will be demand for housing there. It's not an absolutely terrible idea to buy a condo up there. It's "fringy" in a different way from Harlem. It's got the squeaky-clean enclave of Hudson Heights, it's got all the parks along the Hudson, it's got quick access to leaving the city. It's cheap. There's the 1 train, and there's also the A. And it's still Manhattan tho some people on these threads think Manhattan only means certain higher rent districts.

superquant - Mr. Elelphant rocks!!!!

Will - Doomsday? Mmmmmmm....no, but I am looking for opportunity based on distress for the next 12-24 months (minimum - maybe MUCH longer). I'm at the stage where I'm willing to ride out one more 15-20 year cycle (assuming I stay healthy, and the cycle takes that long) like the one we've recently experienced from the high of 1988/9, to the low of 1994/5 to the significantly higher high of 2006/7. And that's also assuming that 2007/8 is the tippie-top before the inevitable....

Maybe it will all be better when Robert Rubin returns as Treasury Secy next January.

Never doomsday for a sensible investor

> Never doomsday for a sensible investor

True... but sensible investors wouldn't be looking in Manhattan, but in the areas that have played out most of their declines. Manhattan is just beginning its own - it came 12-18 months late to the party.

I wouldn't be surprised if in 10 years we hear about folks who picked up some cheap West Coast properties in 2008. But, as for NYC, it 'aint gonna be this year.