west village

This following comment does NOT reflect my viewpoint on the entire Manhattan real estate market - only WV one beds and studios.

I think they'll cost more at the end of the year than they do now.

I should add 'not by much' - I'm certainly not inferring that it's a short term flipper's paradise.

Even in the West Village, I think the spread between "luxury" and "average" properties is being felt. I follow the West Village, but generally co-ops as opposed to condos, decently maintained buildings that may have no significant amenities, etc. Even on a prime block like West 11th I've noticed that time on market for these kinds of 1brs (I don't follow studios) is up, and feeding frenzy open houses are over. I think there's more negotiability now, but I will say there are also buyers trying to price in appreciation at the rate of previous years and either sitting there or price-chopping, while staying above comps.

The sketchier parts of the West Village near the piers may be in for a tough time as the city's budget gap grows and services are cut. There are special police patrols on and around Christopher Street and the piers to keep an eye on the thugs, dealers and prostitutes. Christine Quinn has been straddling the issue for fear of being perceived as anti-gay (yes, the irony) or anti-minority, so the situation hasn't been handled and the kids will be back with the warm weather as they always are. There have also been articles in the Villager and elsewhere about tranny prostitutes being pushed out of the gentrified meat-packing district and settling in on prettier West Village streets. NO NO NO, I am not saying we should expect a return to 70's conditions, just that there are crime and quality of life issues that may worsen if police overtime and special patrols are reeled in.

I don't expect the Richard Meier buildings to start trading at a discount (though I don't think Schnabel will get his prices), but I do think that walk ups and simple co-ops will see a dip. Nothing massive, but with no bonus bounce this year or next I could easily see 10%, more for marginal properties.

Also, regarding studio and 1brs in any location: I think the concept of a starter apartment is dead for a while. In 2003 you could buy a starter unit and appreciate enough to sell in 2005 and roll the difference into your next down payment. We won't be seeing that, unless your "starter" was at 15 CPW or someplace similar.

Tenemental,

What do you see for larger apts (2 or 3 BRs) in WV co-ops? Same, or more/less affected?

KISS, except for (very?)small 2brs, I really don't follow units bigger than 1br, so I'm not really the best person to ask. While I think the luxury/non-luxury disconnect is still a factor, I think 2brs and bigger will fare better than studios and 1brs. In fact, it's as a funtion of that disconnect that I think studios and 1brs will be hit particularly hard. Not that there aren't luxury studios and 1brs, but I think there's more age and deeper wealth in the buyer pool for family-sized properties. Also, since there isn't any room to grow in a studio or 1br, you'll see more seller distress and need-to-sell scenerios.

KISS, absolutely agree with tenemental here. I haven't seriously looked at the WV in a few months, but I believe the supply of 2BRs (and even more so for 3BR and up) in the WV is pretty slim. A few will pop up here and there, but many I saw were quite small (under 800 sqft) and more of a large 1BR, or 1BR + office situation. Good-sized 2BRs in walkups could well come under 1M, but I think that'll be the exception rather than the norm, and they'll most likely be a little quirky or located in the less desirable corners of the WV - and as tenenmental noted, there most definitely are some weird spots, especially as you get further away from subways.

Tenemental/bjw2103,

That's what I suspected (unfortunately). But then again, maybe some of the larger WV apts are owned by (former) Masters of the Universe.

KISS, I am bearish on the market in general, even in the West Village, I just think the smaller apartments will get hit harder. If you line up all the "primes" - neighborhood, building, unit, size - then, yes, chance of depreciation is less, but if you're not looking at luxury/ultra-lux, I think you still stand a good chance of seeing prices drop, or at the very least negotiability increase over the next year or two. One of the great things about this market for buyers, in my opinion, is that the pressure is off. You can take your time and use your head. Chances are good you'll be better off in 6-18 months, not worse.
For one example, check the 3/24 post "Manhattan Real Estate Market...High Anxiety!" on Doug Hedding's truegotham.com blog. He deals with a pretty upscale clientele, and it doesn't seem like anyone's in a hurry.

As for your (former) Masters of the Universe comment, you may indeed be right. There will be a significant number of Wall Streeters downsizing this year and next.

KISS, no idea what your price range is, but I should have pointed out that a 1000 sqft 2BR (non-luxury) for under 1M has been VERY tough to find until now and in the coming months I think. So there is going to be some adjustment, I suspect, I just don't think prices will come down to what they are for say, the UES east of 3rd

How many i-bankers are there in the WV? I'm sure there's a lot, but has this been their neighborhood of choice? Of all those I know, most in the UES, one in the WV, one in the Financial, one in BPC.

bjw123/tenemental,

I don't live in the WV, so I don't have a really good sense of what the folks who do live there actually do in their day jobs.

So, the ones that do live in the 2,000+ sq ft 2 and 3 BR places, what do they do? I assume that most are not the super successful actor/models we all read about. I had assumed that since it is such a pricey neighborhood (per Trulia.com), that like the trad high end UES/UWS places in Manhattan, there was a large proportion of people in finance, no?

KISS, that's a very good question - I really have no idea, as most people I know who live there are renting. My hunch is that those 2000+ sqft apartments are owned by families where there's two higher-end (but not necessarily Wall St-esque) incomes, mixed with quite a few celebs (primary res or pied-a-terre). It's also an area with a particularly high number of young, single women from wealthy families, who are renting in one of the many smaller walkups in the neighborhood (call it the Marc Jacobs/Sex in the City/Magnolia effect).

I have also read (a few months ago) that many i-bankers had been snapping up smaller adjacent units to create a family-size apartment in the west village, for a better commute and for their growing families. Although, those times may be a distant memory now..

Here's some recent broker commentary on the WV market -- basically, according to them, things remain strong. Thoughts on the views expressed in the article?

http://ny.therealdeal.com/articles/8947

Any "ask the brokers" article is going to be full of shill, but despite that, I found much of it to be consistent with what I said above and on other threads. The ultra-lux market (townhouses, Superior Ink) is strong, but the sketchy parts, resale co-ops and walk-ups are not doing as well.

BTW, I agree w/ bjw2103 regarding likely populace, but would also add that many of the artists, bohos, the gay community, etc., that settled there decades ago haven't left. If they've been planning on selling and retiring wealthy to California/the south of France/God know's where, I wouldn't be surprised if many are wondering if it might be good to get while the gettin's good. One example: a half dozen units sold in recent months in a single walk-up co-op on the corner of Morton and Barrow Streets. Avi Nash/Justis NYC was the brokerage.

Thx Tenemental.

Justis seems to be plugged into the WV (I checked their website). Do you know if they do buyer's broker/agency [not sure what the difference is], or if any other GV RE agent specializes in representing buyers in the WV/GV?

I don't know much about Avi Nash/Justis, other than they seem to be the same company but changed names (from Justis to Avi Nash). Sorry, I don't know a buyer's broker that specifies in the neighborhood.

Avi Nash is not Justis. One of the Justis leading agents recently left (it was amicable and based on a change in direction of the focus of Justis's business) and started Avi Nash. They specialize in 83/85 Barrow and whatever the Morton St. address is on the other side of the building, but they also represent a variety of other properties. They are small, but extremely knowledgable and sane. In a business with a lot to complain about, Avi Nash is the kind of agency that stands out as what the others should be more like. My dealings with them have been marked by incredible transparency and fair-dealing with no strong-arm tactics or sleaze. In fact, my dealings with the people at Avi Nash are the only ones I've had with people in RE that left me actually feeling good about the agents. I don't think I've ever posted anything especially positive about agents on these threads, but Avi Nash deserves the praise for being decent people in a lousy business.

Ahhh, thanks for the clarification, kylewest.

kylewest,

Can you clarify whether you worked with Avi Nash as a seller or as a buyer?

I'd rather not disclose more person info. Can you be more specific about why you ask? Perhaps I can answer that way. But know that my answer is not based just on personal experience. A very close friend used their main agent recently. Another knew her and bought from her while she was at Justis many years ago.

Well, you spoke very highly of Avi Nash. As I indicated earlier, I am interested in locating a buyer's broker, or failing that, finding a reputable broker from a buyer's standpoint. Hence, my question as to whether you dealt with them as a seller or as a buyer.

To be blunt, if you spoke highly of them as a seller, I would be more skeptical of the recommendation, purely as a potential buyer. That doesn't make them not a good broker, but I'd rather deal with an agent who generally represents buyers well. That's all I was after -- didn't realize this was a personal question, so don't feel you need to respond. Thx.

FWIW, my opinion applies to Avinash as a buyer's broker as well as for selling. Talk to them and decide for yourself. For me, their knowledge of particular buildings, boards, financials etc from years in the area has been very valuable. Also, because they have a decade or more of property management experience, they know a lot more about building operations than most brokers. I generally find brokers oily and unpleasant fast-talkers. But not this agency. That's my two cents. (I'm torn here because it's sort of a secret resource of mine but I also feel they deserve and have earned the praise.)

I agree. If you've decided to use a buyer's broker, I wouldn't hesitate to recommend Avinash.

Thx, I will check them out.