point of inflection in nyc sales market

rb, I hear you. Many posters just stalk others without adding anything new. There are a few posters who even actively try to pick up a fight which is not based on intellectual arguments. Best not the engage with these as they have more time at their hands than you and I do.

rb345
about 3 hours ago
Posts: 743
Member since: Jun 2009
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Brooks2:

Why dont you stick your head up your ass and have a
meal on me

I believe that was your post Arby.

Just because some don't agree with you arguments that NY real estate will have stochastic price increase because of the coming water wars or Mar's global warming, there is no need to get profane.

brooks2:

You contribute nothing to discussions here on SE. You post simply to annoy and
harass participants in SE threads. In addition, many of your postings are infan-
tile and/or inane.

You certainly have the right to disagree with and criticize posters here, includ-
ing me. But you dont. You post snarky and belittling comments just to annoy us.

Hopefully you will soon join your counterpart greensdale in the gray(te) bannedlands.

I would not exactly call water wars as a reason for stochastic price increases in the price of NY real estate a mature contribution to the discussion on SE . Nor would I think, and expect any reasonable person to think, global warming in Mars to have anything to to with the price of real estate in NY.

Brooks2:

1. you are taking what I said out of context]and mischaracterizing it

2. my point about global warming on Mars is that it is evidence that
all global warming on earth isnt man-made, a fact which is very
important to the debate about global warming and reducing America's
carbon footprint at the expense of its economic development

3. my point about water wars in America is that they portend reduced
commercial and residential development in affected areas, which in
turn will have as yet uncalculated effects on the business models
and profits of numerous businesses, and will probably reduce US GDP

4. the latter fact is likely to influence the price of NYC real estate,
if only marginally, altho my primary point was different: water wars
make non real estate asset classes more dangerous to invest in, in
the process making real estate more attractive to many investors

>Hopefully you will soon join your counterpart greensdale in the gray(te) bannedlands.

You've destroyed your own credibility:

1) Complete conspiracy nut
2) Made up uses of big words that you've still failed to correct after 10
3) Ridiculous insults such as saying my mother traded me for a tire rim
4) Anti-women sentiment in prior threads

2) ... that you've still failed to correct after 107 posts

What about : median , margins , taxes , mortgages , etc. ??? ...

what are the stochastics for those ?

Big Papi:

You need to be sure to take your meds every day

Seems that this thread is evolving into a game of whack-a-troll

Must be tough to keep hitting yourself on the head hard enough to pass out.

Danger Will Robinson Danger

Brooks2:

You get kicked out of your local pre-K again today

300 mercer, tomnevers, inonada, and other serious participants in this thread:

1. the most significant difference between America's current economic malaise and past
depressions and deep recessions is the loss of reserve margins, by which I mean that
policies directed towards improving almost any real or perceived problem are likely
to aggravate other serious problems, as the repeal of the Bush tax cut on payroll
deductions is now doing to Walmart and the rest of the low end retailer market: with
serious potential damage not just to retailer employment, but to landlords leasing
single use big box stores to weaker credits that might go bankrupt, e..g., some of
the Dollar stores, and the commercial mortgage backed securities industry, and of
course Obamacame, which exemplifies that lack of reserve margin

2. the radically different physical world we live in is a second such macro-constraint

3. global warming, carbonization of the atmosphere, depletion and degradation of most ocean
fisheries, the trend towards lower yields on US agricultural land, the possible return of
cyclical drought, the exploding cost and difficulty of extracting industrial metals,
standing alone are not likely to destroy the US economy

4. but they make its overall operation more difficult, and impose costs which cumulatively
are weakening our economy and increasingly hurting less wealthy Americans in particular

5. third, we have little reserve margin left for low probability catastrophic events, such
as drought caused closure of the Mississippi River, which carries 8% of US GDP including
60% of its grains and about 20% of its coal, an event that could occur this year if last
year's drought replicates

6. these problems are different from but connected to Bernanke's zero tolerance of yield policy,
which is an attempt to use cheap money to revive America's dead horse economy

7. but given the large number of other threats to our economy, e.g., domestic terrorism, military
confrontation with Chine, abandonment of the dollar as a reserve currency, I am not optimistic
that the US economy will avoid sliding into Japan-style decay or even flat-out collapse

8. it would be nice if we ordinary citizens could induce our political Nero-class to start address-
ing the nation's problems seriously and realistically

"5. third,..."

who is this guy? wtf is happening to this board? why is this person numbering things so strangely? why is it not grey? u remind me of my cousin after he came out of AA

you win.

but....

what?

Ladies and Gentlemen, tonight's "Witless Troll of the Night" award goes to ... gosh,
there is so much competition ... let's all put our hands together for:

nyc1234

What's the big deal about how rb345 composes his/her comments on streeteasy?

Numbers, bullet points, whatever.

rb345 and C0lumbiaC0unty deserve each other.

Maybe so, greensdale.
I don't read columbiacounty's comments.

More anecdotal evidence that NYC real estate prices are now increasing at staggering rates:

1. the SE post that average price/sq.ft. in Williamsburgh has risen to $1100
2. Mercer300's post about an astounding above-ask bidding war sale at 9 Barrow Street in GV

3. Elliman's and Corcoran's new Fort Greene listings, which are all priced above $1,000,000,
many above $2,000,000, and at or close to $1000/ft

4. the disappearance from the Elliman and SE sites of Elliman's $1,000,000-1100 ft listing at
4 South Portland Street in Fort Greene, which if it has sold, as appears to be the case,
probably set a record for highest price/sq.ft. ever of a Fort Greene brownstone walk-up Coop

Not to mention the expected Martian investors

Brooks2:

1. what is wrong with you
2. are you mentally disturbed or an in-patient out-patient

3. or simply so desperate for attention that you're willing to act like an
imbecile just to get noticed by other people

Sounds like Fort Greene is the place to be. If 4 south Portland street sold, NYC RE is in for a ride.

RB, you think foreigners picking everything up in fort Greene?

foreigners like Russian oligarchs and the rich from Latin America and China?

Foreigners aren't buying in Ft Greene. But, their buying properties in Manhattan (and not living there) is driving people who would want to live in Manhattan to the outer bouroughs.

eriegel, do you agree therefore that the stochastic prices will mean an up to 40% increase in housing prices?

rb345
2 days ago
Posts: 757
Member since: Jun 2009
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brooks2:

You contribute nothing to discussions here on SE. You post simply to annoy and
harass participants in SE threads. In addition, many of your postings are infan-
tile and/or inane.

You certainly have the right to disagree with and criticize posters here, includ-
ing me. But you dont. You post snarky and belittling comments just to annoy us.

Hopefully you will soon join your counterpart greensdale in the gray(te) bannedlands.

people like brooks have their entire identity wrapped up in being bearish on real estate. there assholes. wes67 is another such character. supposedly smart, but not smart enough to see how much money they've lost in the last years.

Hey Homo your back

Do you believe that RE will see stochastic price increase as a result of the Martian Oligarchs?

Typo homes

Hah

JButton:

1. 4 South Portland was deleted yesterday from Crocoran website and SE
properties for sale in Fort Greene: I dont know why.

2. but the market there has toally stripped out, and the new listings on
Elliman and Corcoran are mostly or all priced at $1,000,000 and up

3. I dont know how active foreignors are in Fort Greene: if they are, it is
probably in the new condos, brownstones, or as new developers

4. an interesting report in yesterday's Wall Street Journal: 14 NYC self-storage
facilities just sold at a 5.4% cap rate, drop from the last large prior sale of
7.0% and the 9% prevailing several years ago

5. that sale is a vote of confidence in the NYC real estate market by a large
institutional investor, altho lower cap rate might reflect market surrender
on yield resulting from Bernanke's artificial suppression of interest rates

6. another interesting Wall Street Journal story was about the re-emergence of
large investment pools investing in single family and 1-4 unit homes.

7. some of the homes being bought are on the NJ side of the Hudson; some of the
investment funds are foreign, including one large Australian fund seeking to
capitalize on the weak dollar

8. the pioneering investment fund in that idea suffered the same fate as Humpty-
Dumpty, and the prospects for the newcomers are to me problematic

9. but their re-emergence is a sign of two developments: market froth and the
perception that prime NYC real estate is unaffordable and has no real bottom line

10. another factor to consider when pondering why current prime NYC market prices
appear to be repealing Isaac Newtown's law of gravity is that many people have
made a normative decision to live as well as they can afford to RIGHT NOW

11. that is what happened at the beginning of 2002: faced with the new insecurities
and uncertainties brought about by "The Age of Terrorism", New Yorkers responded
with a surge of new purchases and rentals,

12. those insecurities and uncertainties are greater today for all of us

13. since we can no longer look forward to a stable, safe or prospecous future, it makes
sense to live better today rather than more spartanly

I just made an offer an a lovely place in West Stochastics and they all came out of the woodwork. Needless to say, I won't take part in that sort of thing.

ieb:

You sound like you're the child of Greensdale and his rubber doll. Or at least
that you belong in a runner room.

1 rb
2 345
3 you
4 have
5 the
6 best
7 insults
8
9 ever

Todays's "9 Barrow". "LES on Fire" and "Even UES Hot" postings on SE are all reporting
high percentage increases in just completed sales from prior comps, such as an UES sale
at $1100/ft.

A broker from Spring Lake New Jersey I met this morning over breakfast told me that prices
are up there 30% from 2012.

So it looks like the official calling of the bottom of the national real estate market has
unleashed a large number of former fence-sitters and created a short-squueze in residential
real estate in areas that buyers consider desirable, with resulting short-squeeze price rises.

rb, do you understand what a short squeeze is?

True, you really can't short a house and cover short like trading equities. However,rb345 may be describing a phenomenon common to a short sequeeze trade, "Buy at market price. I don't want to negotiate anymore". May be a little exaggerated, but that is what makes writing interesting sometimes.

rb345
about 3 hours ago
Posts: 760
Member since: Jun 2009
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I just ran into a broker from Spring Lake New Jersey who told me that prices
there are up 30% from 2012.

It seems that with the officially called bottom of the national real estate
market that demand is now beginning to become crazy as fence-sitters become
if-onlyers and desperate to get to the station before the train leaves.

I ran into several at an open house I held last week for a condo I own. Looking
12-18 months for the right property, and unable to see the writing on the wall
that, as the bears here used to chortle, they need to:

Hmmm so all these posts so you can sell your apartment

Pretty much what I expected.

Brooks2:

Are you doing acid again? Or is it crack? I havent mentioned my apartment anywhere in
this thread nor its location. Just expressing my opinion about the real estate market
based on what I am seeing and reading.

RB, seriously regarding JButton's comment on the other thread. If you think we are at an inflection point w.r.t. the market, why would you be selling a condo right now?

My guess is because of his fear of possible water wars

Cuckoo

Inonada:

1. deleveraging: paying down some debt to reduce fixed monthly overhead
and buying some of my own debt back from a bank at a large discount

2. exchanging proceeds of sale into high yielding real estate, some of
which yields over 20% and has good potential for rent large increases


3. because the US economy is no longer stable and has immense problems:
A. today's WSJ article on the effect of repeal of Bush's payroll tax deduction on retailers
B. today's NYT article about the effect of drought on Colorado and US farm production
C. yesterday's WSJ article on REITs being overpriced because of yield chasing of US budget spending

So no stochastic price increases from expected Martian investors

Brooks2:

I'm hoping the next meteor to hit Earth will go straight into your mouth so
that you can get a taste of Martian life.

So testy

Whadaya mean testy. Meteorite fragments are worth a great deal. If you had the good fortune
to be hit in the mouth by a 10 pound meteor, you would be set for life. And so would the rest
of us here on SE, who would mark that day down on our calendars and celebrate it every year.

Arby you are growing on me ; )

Call me, no you crazy.

Thanks, Arby.

Sounds like you've got some expensive debt elsewhere that you need to pay down, and that this property is overpriced relative to other options.

Whereabouts are you selling and whereabouts are you buying? On the 20% yielding RE, I assume that's levered?

Inonada:

1. twenty percent real estate is all cash, not leveraged, just a special situation which
also has tremendous income and equity upside: in case you were wondering, the property
is not located on Central Park South

2. I cant yet indicate where my apartment is
3. due to careless marketing, I have inadvenently started a bidding war

arby, 20% unlevered yield? you sure the building is not condemned, or someone's running a meth lab in there? sounds like you made that up as well.

As per the bidding war - terrible. As a seller that is the last thing you want.

JButton:

1. the cash on cash return is actually slightly higher than 20%
2. but if I am successful in renting the one vacancy for what I will ask it will hit 24-25%
3. and could go higher in the near future
4. as I said, it is a special situation/semi-distress bail-out and those situations attract me

Did you buy that place right after the meteor hit?

arby, someone is in semi-distressed and so is willing to sell you a property at quarter of its value? One of the parties is clearly a fool here, make sure it is not you (see under "Do you want to buy a brooklyn bridge?").

Good luck with it, Arby!

JButton:

1. I am buying on a downtick in equity prices
2. from multiple sellers
3. the underlying property has some problems
4. that situation often causes inexperienced investors to bail
5. but there is nothing fundamentally wrong with the property
6. plus the local rental market is much stronger than in past years
7. and up close to 10% 2012 to 2013

Thank you just the same for your concern and advice

Inonada:

1. thank you

"No idea whether we are at an inflection point. I'll believe it when I see the data. People here have been talking about the impending jump (and nosedive) since I started reading SE."

How many years of bulls being wrong... with the *same* evidence?

SWE, yikes said he likes your hissy bitchiness.

Greensdale:

Thank you for once again demonstrating the intellectual depth that you are
renowned for here on Streeteasy.

Shill gotta shill...

hey rb344, you were recently nominated for most annoying posting style only second to somewhereelse. what do you think?

why don't you explain why you changed your name from hunters burg?

why don't you explain why you hurt your family, friends, and people you did business with?

why would you change your name on an anonymous board? what are you trying to hide?

greensdale - you keep posting re: CC's hurting "family,fiends, and people you did business with".

WTF are you talking about?

ph, you don't think cc will explain?

somehow doubt it, but don't really know if you're just making this sh#t up

Anyone I've known by name or in real life detail, I've respected a code of online privacy. I will continue to do that.
Figure out what you will from what people post by themselves.

but cc just continues to post total garbage here. And you keep referring to something terrible he's done IRL. Which, of course, I don't think he's ever posted here. So, just give it up

considering the way cc trolls you on this board, you are displaying considerable forbearance.

oh poor afflicted greens dale. or is it hunters burg?

ph41, I think his new nickname is c0c0.

Greesndale:

1. the way you and columbia county grope each other on this board why dont
finally just rent a room together

2. or are you afraid that your inflatable doll will get jealous and refuse
to join you and your vacuum cleaner hose in any more threesomes

Ok really why #1,#2 and or? Really

Brooks2:

I am not familiar with languages other than those spoken on Earth

You folks are crazy.

Prices are still falling everywhere.
There's another 30-40% more to the downside.

Signing off,
W64thstreet

ericho75:

I might be crazy, but I'll be gold-plating the deck of my 200 ft.
yacht while bears like you are lining up to be deckhands

How can there be a move UP if we haven't found a BOTTOM yet?

Crazy i say!
Crazy!

signing off,
w64thstreet

"Threads gone wild" so lets go to the video tape!

"A: And the deals just keep on coming! If it feels like its very active out there, your right, and the data shows it. This February saw another high in 'deal volume' (contract activity) as we booked 1,099 new contracts signed -- the previous high was February 2008 which booked 1,041 new deals signed. This blows past previous February production levels that averaged in the mid-800's. All of this is coming as inventory remain at very low levels. Add in how equity markets are reaching record highs, and there are no forces out there to get in the way of this Manhattan run. Until something changes, buyers will have to deal with competition for well priced property that has desired features (views/renovations/outdoor space). Lets go to the real-time data..."

http://urbandigs.com/2013/03/february_manhattan_market_repo.html

Warner Wolf!

How about a SPY crash of 40%, what then? Just joking, that's not in the cards, of course.

What does it say about the situation when we have had SEVERAL posts in the past month of people asking (in various forms): how do I get more leverage to buy property? We've seen posts about 10% downpayments on co-ops, using 401ks as collateral, etc. Why the sudden rush by everyone to buy stock and real estate that could not be given away 4 years ago for much cheaper prices? Do they still teach history in elementary school?

The time to buy would seem to be when rents go up significantly (compared to sales) or sales drop significantly (compared to rents), so that the cap yield is not horrific, as it is now. Demonstrating that the masses are buying stock and real estate in large numbers is not support of purchasing but trend-following.

I mean:

Demonstrating that the masses are buying stock and real estate in large numbers is not supportive evidence for purchasing either asset, but simply documenting trend-following (in a ZIRP environment).

Kind of makes you wonder what the door knobs are thinking

Brooks:

1. from your trolling here, you seem to want to be entered into Streeteasy's
"most obnoxious troll of rhe year bowl".

2. I would be the first to agree that you deserve to be "entered" into a bowl,
but one designed by Kohler, not Streeteasy

>>Demonstrating that the masses are buying stock and real estate in large numbers is not supportive evidence for purchasing either asset, but simply documenting trend-following (in a ZIRP environment).

Couldn't agree more. Even though I would like to buy, the investor aspect of my nature will not allow it in Manhattan with these caps. I love my apt but can not afford to buy it. Yet, the rent is a breeze, easily covered by my investments. And, btw, a SPY crash is not out of the question. Remember history. There is a steady drumbeat of very sober, very respected investment gurus warning of exactly that. Kyle Bass, Stan Druckenmiller, Felix Zuulaf (sp? Round Table banker at Barrons) Jim Sinclair, even Ray Dalio. And that doesn't include the bears like Marc Faber, Nouriel Roubini, Jim Rogers, Jim Grant etc. Most of the middle of the road guys think it comes from rising rates that are beyond the control of the Fed (and not due to growth which is weak). Ray Dalio whose timing is amazingly prescient thinks rising rates will come at the end of this year.

Dalio says to buy assets, including real estate, to counter the coming inflation but he is certainly not recommending RE that is still in bubble territory. If there is a major correction in equity markets, the NYC RE market will not be spared. ---- just like our most recent historical precedent in 2008. Until then, the move is still up..........

It's quite something that we are seeing such momentum considering that banks lending standards have been quite tight.

Keith Burkhardt
TBG

Keith B: Are the buyers mostly foreigners. Any die hard NYer's moving up? What has been your experience

Of course, we can easily have a 40% drop (just joking was sarcasm). I say easily because we are in a long-term deleveraging cycle, and it is in those cycles where volatility is the worst. A 4-yr bull market rally doesn't negate the long-term interest rate cycle. In fact, neither does the Silicon Valley boom.

@Keith

I think you mean momentum-chasing, right? Are you seeing more cash offers? If so, what does that say about the thesis that the market is strong from true fundamentals as opposed to lots of easy money sloshing around? Also, do you think it is reasonable to buy on the basis of following others?

Arby so I guess you agree with your doorknobs

I think this is a difficult market to understand. What are "true fundamentals"? I keep reading about how money isn't easy, many here say the same thing. Money is cheap though. My sample size is too small to be relevant regarding the biz we do. But only about 10% of our deals are cash.

Most of our buyers are folks who want/like to own their homes. Many are paying very high rents to live in less than ideal circumstances and most have a long view and a lot of cash. In other words they are not stretching to purchase. The death of Wall Street has been greatly exaggerated, the people I have been working with have strong incomes and lots of liquid savings.

As you said we have been in a bullish cycle for 4+ years. It will end, things will get bad, the brave (smart) will buy the low end of the cycle and the market will rebound. I don't need a MBA from Harvard to know this, I have watched it play out in NYC since 1981 when I moved in. The trend is up (eventually).

I don't think you should be buying a residential home to get rich or because you think it is a good investment. Buy because you love the home and want to create a life there ( and most importantly that you can afford the place!) If you make a couple scheckels down the road, god bless.

When clients call me and tell me they want to sell in 2-3 years I always tell them to just rent. Some tell me to mind my own business, they understand the consequences of such a decision and will deal with it when the time comes. Some tell me thanks, that makes sense. (That's the extent of my "investment" advice).

I wish I knew what the market was going to do, I don't have a clue (short term). But I think there are worse things you can do with your money than to buy a home in NYC to live in.

My two cents.

Keith Burkhardt
TBG

>apt23" I love my apt but can not afford to buy it. Yet, the rent is a breeze, easily covered by my investments."

Obviously you can afford to buy it, so stop moaning about the high prices, and do it already. It's not going to get better, you've been posting the same thing over and over again for the last 3 years!!!!

yes ph41, but what if they start to crack down on Chinese corruption? Or Hugo Chaves' replacement is even more crazy? Or it just rains two days in a row in Chicago while some economics blogger complains about Ben Bernanke? Or if tomorrow is Wednesday? What happens then ph41? What happens?

>greensdale - LOL

>apt23 - or, if you can't afford it now, you won''t be able to afford it a year from now. So, just keep renting and moving from place to place.