1. in statistical terms, a point of inflection is the point where a trend changes direction 2. stochastic events are those where markets cease to move linearal and re-set markedly higher or lower 3. at least the better parts of the NYC real estate market seem to be experiencing stochastic price movements which are foreshadowing very sharp short-term price increases, i.e., anywhere from 10-40% 4.... [more]
1. in statistical terms, a point of inflection is the
point where a trend changes direction
2. stochastic events are those where markets cease to
move linearal and re-set markedly higher or lower
3. at least the better parts of the NYC real estate market
seem to be experiencing stochastic price movements which
are foreshadowing very sharp short-term price increases,
i.e., anywhere from 10-40%
4. in my experience, that is often how the NYC sales market
works: wandering listlessly for years and then rocketing
in massive price swings to new highs or lows
A. Evidence:
1. the Real Deal reported the other day that some developers
of new Manhattan condos have begun to raise prices 1-2x/month
2. that is an extraodinary event, particularly given the large
reductions in Wall Street bonuses, and one which to my recall
has only occurred in markets which have suddenly begun to zoom
3. second item of evidence is Fort Greene, Brooklyn
4. Elliman's site shows all of its Ft Greene lisings in contract
5. with the exception of a 920 ft Sth Portland coop asking $1100/ft
6. which is almost 2x the pre-2013 price average for the area
7. Ft Greene now has a massive supply-demand imbalance
8. like much of the most desirable parts of Manhattan
[less]
Response by greensdale
almost 13 years ago
Posts: 3804
Member since: Sep 2012
hmm, what happens if she's moving from place to place, and during the move, the sky falls?
The Sky is Falling! The Sky is Falling!
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Response by Ottawanyc
almost 13 years ago
Posts: 842
Member since: Aug 2011
Keith - thanks for insights, always appreciated. I just got one of those glitzy fliers in the mail detailing recent sales in bburg. Many are 15-35% above ask and all cash. Most are in the 800k to 1.5 range. Are these all foreign buyers?
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Response by apt23
almost 13 years ago
Posts: 2041
Member since: Jul 2009
ph41 real estate has always been an investment for me. why pay over inflated prices for real estate when it is far cheaper to rent it. Investing in one of the biggest bull equity markets in history for the past three years instead of Manhattan RE has proven to be a very good decision. I heard Steve Roth, the Manhattan RE baron speak about investing in RE. His advice is to never fall in love with a piece of RE. Price and timing is all that matters if you want to make money in RE. And I am patient.
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Response by greensdale
almost 13 years ago
Posts: 3804
Member since: Sep 2012
>And I am patient.
as time passes, the likelihood of being exposed to a falling sky increases. Not to mention that sinkholes have come into play recently.
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Response by nyc1234
almost 13 years ago
Posts: 245
Member since: Feb 2009
--What are "true fundamentals"?
cap rates
i guess maybe the issue is that the people you are dealing with have enough money that if they spend $300k on downpayment which ends up being a bad investment, they can sleep at night. maybe a decent rule of thumb is don't buy something with leverage that yields less than inflation unless u can afford to pay cash several times over. i definitely agree with u that the "wall street demise" is b.s. i don't see that happening to any of my personal friends, the bonus money seems more than just healthy.
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Response by huntersburg
almost 13 years ago
Posts: 11329
Member since: Nov 2010
>--What are "true fundamentals"?
Meaningless words spoken by angry people.
Go to Wal-Mart and tell them about the true fundamentals of the Tide detergent you want to buy, and see where it gets you.
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Response by columbiacounty
almost 13 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009
more importantly....what is true?
tell us.
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Response by huntersburg
almost 13 years ago
Posts: 11329
Member since: Nov 2010
C0C0, have you ever tried to estimate the total number of people you've cheated and been dishonest with?
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Response by columbiacounty
almost 13 years ago
Posts: 12708
Member since: Jan 2009
no...but i'm sure you have.
tell us.
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Response by nyc1234
almost 13 years ago
Posts: 245
Member since: Feb 2009
"Go to Wal-Mart and tell them about the true fundamentals of the Tide detergent you want to buy, and see where it gets you."
Good analogy huntersburg. Good to see you have been released from the ward.
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Response by greensdale
almost 13 years ago
Posts: 3804
Member since: Sep 2012
Thank you
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Response by rb345
almost 13 years ago
Posts: 1273
Member since: Jun 2009
nyc1234:
Thank you for taking the baton from me
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Response by nyc1234
almost 13 years ago
Posts: 245
Member since: Feb 2009
1-u
b-are
4.f-welcome
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Response by greensdale
almost 13 years ago
Posts: 3804
Member since: Sep 2012
1234 just hit 345 with a baton. Maybe 345 is into that though.
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Response by rb345
almost 13 years ago
Posts: 1273
Member since: Jun 2009
ab1234:
1. one hopes
2. that you too are not being sarcastic
rb345
about 1 hour ago
Posts: 862
Member since: Jun 2009
ignore this person
report abuse
1 for the reasons stated by posters in earlier, topically
related threads, the supply-demand ratios in NYC's most
highly sought after neighborhos seem to be as one-sided
in favor of sellers as they ever have in NYC's history,
except perhaps after post WW II demobilization
2. under normal circumstances, a market as lop-sided as
NYC's would be expected to see very sharp short-term
price increases, perhaps as much as 10-15% from April
1st to May 31st, the moreso given current interest rates
and the real risk that they could sharply rise at any time
3. that spiking would be reflected in higher open house
attendance, more aggressive and higher offers, and fiercer
bidding wars
4. I have seen some evidence of this but my data sample is
much too small to draw reliable conclusions from
* "The average monthly apartment rent in the city has soared past $3,000 for the first time, and the scarcity of housing is driving home hunters out to suddenly pricey Brooklyn and Queens."
* "Second-place San Francisco isn’t even close, at a mere $1,998.82 a month."
* "Median sales prices for Brooklyn homes rose 15.3 percent in the past year — to $550,000"
* "In Queens, the inventory of homes for sale is at an eight-year low, and the median price jumped 9.9 percent to $390,000"
* "The market is getting so tight that 300 people showed up at a recent open house for a single apartment in Brooklyn Heights"
* "Also, 450 people attended three open houses in 4 1/2 hours in Bedford-Stuyvesant, and the broker received 50 offers by the end of the week"
* "The inventory of Brooklyn homes for sale has plunged nearly 31 percent in the second quarter of this year compared to the same period last year, from 2,592 to 1,794"
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Response by 300_mercer
about 12 years ago
Posts: 10570
Member since: Feb 2007
SE index keeps going up!!
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Response by aboutready
about 12 years ago
Posts: 16354
Member since: Oct 2007
I think three exclamation points would have been more effective. Or maybe a discussion of the imbalances and incentives created by the post-economic-meltdown monetary policy decisions.
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Response by matsonjones
about 12 years ago
Posts: 1183
Member since: Feb 2007
Oh Brooks2........
............where are you?
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Response by fieldschester
about 12 years ago
Posts: 3525
Member since: Jul 2013
>SE index keeps going up!
That must be a relief for you 300_mercer, given how on the edge you are financially.
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Response by rb345
about 12 years ago
Posts: 1273
Member since: Jun 2009
green s dale:
1. stop harassing posters here in your new persona as field s chester
2. go find a scorpion to play touchy-feely with instead of spamming this board
'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e)
hmm, what happens if she's moving from place to place, and during the move, the sky falls?
The Sky is Falling! The Sky is Falling!
Keith - thanks for insights, always appreciated. I just got one of those glitzy fliers in the mail detailing recent sales in bburg. Many are 15-35% above ask and all cash. Most are in the 800k to 1.5 range. Are these all foreign buyers?
ph41 real estate has always been an investment for me. why pay over inflated prices for real estate when it is far cheaper to rent it. Investing in one of the biggest bull equity markets in history for the past three years instead of Manhattan RE has proven to be a very good decision. I heard Steve Roth, the Manhattan RE baron speak about investing in RE. His advice is to never fall in love with a piece of RE. Price and timing is all that matters if you want to make money in RE. And I am patient.
>And I am patient.
as time passes, the likelihood of being exposed to a falling sky increases. Not to mention that sinkholes have come into play recently.
--What are "true fundamentals"?
cap rates
i guess maybe the issue is that the people you are dealing with have enough money that if they spend $300k on downpayment which ends up being a bad investment, they can sleep at night. maybe a decent rule of thumb is don't buy something with leverage that yields less than inflation unless u can afford to pay cash several times over. i definitely agree with u that the "wall street demise" is b.s. i don't see that happening to any of my personal friends, the bonus money seems more than just healthy.
>--What are "true fundamentals"?
Meaningless words spoken by angry people.
Go to Wal-Mart and tell them about the true fundamentals of the Tide detergent you want to buy, and see where it gets you.
more importantly....what is true?
tell us.
C0C0, have you ever tried to estimate the total number of people you've cheated and been dishonest with?
no...but i'm sure you have.
tell us.
"Go to Wal-Mart and tell them about the true fundamentals of the Tide detergent you want to buy, and see where it gets you."
Good analogy huntersburg. Good to see you have been released from the ward.
Thank you
nyc1234:
Thank you for taking the baton from me
1-u
b-are
4.f-welcome
1234 just hit 345 with a baton. Maybe 345 is into that though.
ab1234:
1. one hopes
2. that you too are not being sarcastic
?
iii.
c.
3.
8 weeks later, more of the same:
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/34761-real-estate-short-squeeze-in-nyc
rb345
about 1 hour ago
Posts: 862
Member since: Jun 2009
ignore this person
report abuse
1 for the reasons stated by posters in earlier, topically
related threads, the supply-demand ratios in NYC's most
highly sought after neighborhos seem to be as one-sided
in favor of sellers as they ever have in NYC's history,
except perhaps after post WW II demobilization
2. under normal circumstances, a market as lop-sided as
NYC's would be expected to see very sharp short-term
price increases, perhaps as much as 10-15% from April
1st to May 31st, the moreso given current interest rates
and the real risk that they could sharply rise at any time
3. that spiking would be reflected in higher open house
attendance, more aggressive and higher offers, and fiercer
bidding wars
4. I have seen some evidence of this but my data sample is
much too small to draw reliable conclusions from
5. thoughts and observations
and 9 weeks later, desperate rb345 does it again: http://streeteasy.com/nyc/talk/discussion/34888-nyc-re-is-now-in-a-manic-panic-market
manic?
I agree with you c0lumbiaC0unty.
its a shame about you.
Ooh, Arnold Diaz is coming!
is that funny?
Oh come on c0c0, you don't need me to tell you when to laugh, when to cry.
why?
you tell me everything else.
liar.
I think we have the making of the good Country song. Keep it up C0C0!
oh no....
you broke the golden rule.
oh well.
Oh you and rb345 and the golden rule. Not everyone is into those rules.
Rb345, Did you call the inflection point three months back? None of the bears wants to mention the SE index going up strongly.
Well, looks like rb345 was correct. I should have looked past his social misfits and intellectual lapses and listed to the substance.
And is it now over?
Brooks2 certainly is now over, that's for sure.
.
408-square-foot, fifth-floor walk-up in West Village goes for $595,000:
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/09/nyregion/amid-housing-scarcity-many-buyers-are-going-home-empty-handed.html?hpw&_r=0
http://streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/874380-condo-223-west-10th-street-west-village-new-york
09/29/2005 Previous Sale recorded for $262,130.
04/30/2013 Listed by Halstead Property at $595,000.
05/15/2013 Listing entered contract.
NWT, that one doesn't count. Only the 67 condos owned by w67thstreet counts.
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/city_renters_rocked_as_avg_hits_i2kRuzCCHYgRD59ZpEKQfN
* "The average monthly apartment rent in the city has soared past $3,000 for the first time, and the scarcity of housing is driving home hunters out to suddenly pricey Brooklyn and Queens."
* "Second-place San Francisco isn’t even close, at a mere $1,998.82 a month."
* "Median sales prices for Brooklyn homes rose 15.3 percent in the past year — to $550,000"
* "In Queens, the inventory of homes for sale is at an eight-year low, and the median price jumped 9.9 percent to $390,000"
* "The market is getting so tight that 300 people showed up at a recent open house for a single apartment in Brooklyn Heights"
* "Also, 450 people attended three open houses in 4 1/2 hours in Bedford-Stuyvesant, and the broker received 50 offers by the end of the week"
* "The inventory of Brooklyn homes for sale has plunged nearly 31 percent in the second quarter of this year compared to the same period last year, from 2,592 to 1,794"
SE index keeps going up!!
I think three exclamation points would have been more effective. Or maybe a discussion of the imbalances and incentives created by the post-economic-meltdown monetary policy decisions.
Oh Brooks2........
............where are you?
>SE index keeps going up!
That must be a relief for you 300_mercer, given how on the edge you are financially.
green s dale:
1. stop harassing posters here in your new persona as field s chester
2. go find a scorpion to play touchy-feely with instead of spamming this board
Rb345, this is not a new persona.
SE index keeps going up!! Where are the bears?
Barely coping with beer