East Village & LES - Current & Future Valuation
Started by Nah
about 12 years ago
Posts: 85
Member since: Feb 2008
Discussion about
Right now, the EV is hot, yet again. Rents in the EV are up nearly double the year over year average of other neighborhoods. Several new condos are being completed. Landlords, however, will likely regret some of the choices they are making in the coming years. In addition to the loss of many long standing businesses in recent years, the pace of the remaining few leaving has escalated -- escalated... [more]
Right now, the EV is hot, yet again. Rents in the EV are up nearly double the year over year average of other neighborhoods. Several new condos are being completed. Landlords, however, will likely regret some of the choices they are making in the coming years. In addition to the loss of many long standing businesses in recent years, the pace of the remaining few leaving has escalated -- escalated like they have news of incoming typhoon. No joke. The residential rents are at all time highs. The East Village has a lower percentage of individual condo/coop property ownership than most other neighborhoods. The majority of the occupants are very transient. Seems like an overall recipe for disaster. It happened in 2008/09 (rent's plummeted more than other neighborhoods), so there is a precedent for this to happen again. Transit options are still horrible and will always be horrible. I have witnessed a significant increase in bars opening and oddly, ice cream shops -- whatever that's supposed to mean. The East Village and LES in the last two years has become increasingly dirtier in recent years. And then there is the noise. Holy mother of god. I suppose the number one issue, though, are the inhabitants. Some of the people walking around these days are the worst people that you could possibly want to come in contact with. I wouldn't buy an apartment in the East Village right now if I had the choice, let alone rent one and this comes from someone who lived there for well over a decade. Overall, the valuation of apartments and retail for the area is way too high and there are very few remaining tangible assets (staple businesses) of the old neighborhood. I suppose you could go into either Think Coffee (Bowery and 4th Ave) and be served by the most useless vapid people you'll ever meet and then make your way over to the guys polishing their surf boards on Extra Place saying "yeah, cool." Then again, maybe they are preparing for aforementioned typhoon. [less]
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What you are describing sounds like a bubble. The Street Easy condo index is up nearly 12% year over year. At that rate, prices will double in the next 6 years and quadruple in the next 12 years. That seems unsustainable. Yet, there is no shortage of buyers. When does this correct?
Well, didn't see that one coming either (actually, perhaps I did, considering the rapid exodus of businesses from the area).
http://evgrieve.com/2014/02/surprise-surprise-will-close-at-end-of.html
Avalon Bay Communities is seeking a sale of their properties on the Bowery, which seems rather quick to move on from this investment. They likely see this as being the high-water mark. $400m could be a potential heist for them considering 295 Bowery, which once stood in this place, was essentially a pile of bricks.
http://www.realert.com/headlines.php?hid=183743
..and I wasn't too far off with the Ice cream comment either:
http://evgrieve.com/2014/02/red-mango-now-open-on-second-avenue.html
two places side by side on 2nd btw 4th and 5th, go a few blocks north to corner of St. Marks another is opening, go two more to 10th and there are two other places, one being that "handles" thing. There are ton's more in the EV. I see these transplant kids sucking this stuff down too. It's all just so weird, really.
"The 361-unit Avalon Chrystie Place, which was built in 2005, is 95% occupied. At the estimated value of $1.1 million/unit, the initial annual yield would be about 4%."
4% seems like a very low yield on this type of investment.
It's also an 80/20 building with 72 regulated apartments set aside for low-income tenants.
I think you've outgrown the area and are seeing it through different eyes after no longer living there.
Lowery I think you hit that on the head and also exposed a major problem with rent regulation---it ties people to places they no longer would want to live.