crash! bam! kaboom! re crashing!!!

Ouch!! http://www.nysun.com/business/city-housing-slump-may-hit-in-2009/81127/

You were so drunk on NYC RE - too much of a good thing is never good for you. Hangover will be terrible - 75%-80% reduction in real price in the next 2 years.

"Foreign capital also has been credited with driving prices upward. "The foreigners have done a good job of keeping the prices up," the president of Prudential Douglas Elliman, Dottie Herman, said."

LMAO.

Ha - see how fast the foreigners try to dump their Manhattan RE once the global RE bubble starts to pop - kaboom - this is going to be really REALLY bad.....

Sometimes I wonder if posters on this site are being purposely ridiculous, or are just retarded

Those cheap NYC apartments are going to get even cheaper after the ECB raises interest rates tomorrow. That's going to put a gash in the price appreciation for the Euro-denominated owner.

http://www.nysun.com/arts/ten-works-set-records-at-sothebys-contemporary/81153/

> Sometimes I wonder if posters on this site are being purposely ridiculous, or are just retarded

When, in the midst of one of the worst economic crises to ever hit NYC, you have folks thinking those calling for major price declines are being "ridiculous", one wonders why they don't teach basic financial literacy in school.

WHAT THE HELL DO YOU THINK HAPPENS IN A CRASH, GENIUS?

Who cares about the ECB? The Federal Reserve is unlikely going to raise rates until after the election. If the ECB raises rates, that will de-value the dollar more against the Euro, making aparmtnets cheaper for EUROPEANS. Unless you have a box full of Euros, you won't benefit.

What about the Martians? Hell, there's ice up there. Imagine if we find oil....

alpine292, for European investors who bought apartments a weaker dollar reduces the value of their NYC apartment. Those foreign investors took currency risk on top of all the other risks. This could be an example of the downside of currency risk.

But if their apartment goes up in value or if they are renting it with positive cash flow, it's a wash.

alpine292
But if their apartment goes up in value or if they are renting it with positive cash flow, it's a wash.

Doing 420?

Foreigners treated Manhattan much like many did Miami. They bought both cities as an investment and vacation homes. Now that Europe is starting to feel the credit crises and housing is plummeting at home, how long do you think they can hold on to their vacation homes and investments. Europe is laying off just as many in the financial field as the US. In Ireland for example tens of thousands of construction jobs being lost because building has grind to a halt.

How long until Europeans realize that they can no longer afford their vacation homes in Manhattan. I mean if you are at risk of losing your primary home (or just can't afford the extra money for a vacation home) the first thing to go is going to be your vacation home. It doesn't make sense to keep a vacation home 3,000 miles away when you just lost your job or are worried about losing your job.

So if we are to believe all the bulls over the years saying that the foreigners were responsible for buying a large percentage of NYC RE. then it's logical to assume that as they face the same problems it will further exasperate the problem because these are mainly vacation homes for people that may no longer be able to afford them. This will drive the inventory numbers much higher then anticipated. And who said that Manhattan is nothing like Miami.

New buildings in Miamai are ghost towns. On the other hand, buildings in Manhattan like 15 CPW and 40 Bond Street are selling very well.

15 CPW

STOP! New rule. Never quote 15 CPW as if it were typical of what an average mortal could afford.

Please.

"75%-80% reduction in real price in the next 2 years"

if you think this is happening, you are retarded

75%-80%?
Calm down.
That really WOULD be a first in history.

He does that so when there's only a 10-15% reduction (which is already in the process of happening), he can be labeled a genius.

"And who said that Manhattan is nothing like Miami."
Miami never had incomes to support the real estate valuation. New York did and does. Sure, the ibank layoffs will cause price deflation, but not to Miami levels, particularly not as quickly.

Miami is amazing -- every cab driver whose card you ask for has on the back of it -- "mortgage broker."

I would just like to take the time to wish both Bull and Bear a Happy and Safe 4th of July. Remember we are all New Yorkers (except you NJ people, I don't know who you are. hahahah). Enjoy.

"STOP! New rule. Never quote 15 CPW as if it were typical of what an average mortal could afford."

steve, if you can add a rule, can I add a rule that forbids people from comparing Manhattan and Miami? It is just as ludicrous as using 15 CPW as a barometer for Manhattan.

Why can't we use 15 CPW? Beleive it or not, but the average person CAN afford to buy at 15 CPW. You can easily buy a staff apartment for around $650,000 at 15 CPW.

15 CPW has and will continue to prop up this market for the remainder of the year. it skews the sale price stats to the uninformed. Lets hope it continues into 2009!!!

FYI I read in the WSJ that there is a 2 AM July 4th tour this evening/tomorrow morning that takes you to all the historic sights in "FiDi" and beyond. In case anyone interested look on the WSJ site for tix.

steve, if you can add a rule, can I add a rule that forbids people from comparing Manhattan and Miami? It is just as ludicrous as using 15 CPW as a barometer for Manhattan.

What about comparing Manhattan and Orlando, Florida?

What about comparing crappy rentals with luxury condos?