Legendary investor jim rogers who's famous for shorting Fannie Mae/Citigroup before the credit crisis hit, predicting $150 oil when it was at 60, and manages a commoditiy index with a 350% 7 year return tells investors even Manhattan real estate, much like the rest of the country has serious troubles ahead. Mr. Rogers, co-founder with Soros on the Quantum Fund, a self made billionaire by 37 also... [more]
Legendary investor jim rogers who's famous for shorting Fannie Mae/Citigroup before the credit crisis hit, predicting $150 oil when it was at 60, and manages a commoditiy index with a 350% 7 year return tells investors even Manhattan real estate, much like the rest of the country has serious troubles ahead. Mr. Rogers, co-founder with Soros on the Quantum Fund, a self made billionaire by 37 also notes he's sold his Manhattan apartment and expects the dollar to sink further. According to Mr. Rogers "anyone holding u.s. dollars should get out of his dollar". According to Rogers, this recession will be very "different.
To me it makes sense. 25 years of credit expansion cannot continue. When interest rates go higher, which they will as inflation gets out of control even Manhattan prices will tumble. There's no way the U.S. leave rates at 2-5%. It's only a matter of time before we see 10-15% interest rates. Paul Volker solved the problem and bernanke may have to do the same. If not bernanke, then whoever takes his seat upon resignation.
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Response by anonymous
over 17 years ago
thanks 2009. that was valuable. i suppose we all should all make our assets liquid and move to china. after all, we have same mobility and access as a billionaire.
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Response by MMAfia
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1071
Member since: Feb 2007
underestimating jim rogers has been a very expensive proposition- he has been right on the money with Feddie/Fanny, Gold, commodities, the USD (and Fed), and foreign currencies and markets.
i'm actually surprised that he came out with this, but now that he said it, i'm beginning think the 50% drop might occur (as it did in 90 here in Manhattan).
Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, Peter Schiff -listen to these three whenever you get a chance. they have been dead right and chances are, will continue to be right.
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Response by anonymous
over 17 years ago
OK, MMAfia, I agree that the men your cited are brilliant. But they are also exceptionally well placed and agile enough to take enormous chances. How do you propose the average American follow their advice? What would be their first step? And, if we all did follow their advice what would happen to America at large? Do you like the thought of that? So, Americans bet against America and then what? We all move to Asia?
Having lived in Malaysia and worked in Hong Kong and Singapore I have to say, they're not societies that will absorb other cultures the way the US has.
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Response by dco
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1319
Member since: Mar 2008
eah- "How do you propose the average American follow their advice"?
Well for starters don't buy. How's that for a start.
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Response by dco
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1319
Member since: Mar 2008
Why does everyone think that owning is a given right. You use to have to save for years to get enough money for the downpayment. Then you would buy what you could afford to pay back, not what the bank was willing to give you. The last 5 years have been a joke. People making $70 or $ 80,000/year buying $500,000 home with 10% down. That's not the American way was built, it the fast and lazy way.
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Response by anonymous
over 17 years ago
Great idea dco. So, Americans should shift their entire life paradigm? They should rent and put their savings where? You can focus as much as you'd like on the rent vs buy debate but it ins't really very helpful. Why don't you get more specific than "don't buy"? Lay out a few scenarios, perhaps. Like how long one should rent for? When is it OK to buy? When have you spent too much on rent? How does the average citizen "get out of the dollar?" and what do they do if China crashes, as has been discussed.
Do you have more to offer than "don't buy"...?
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Response by flmd
over 17 years ago
Posts: 223
Member since: Feb 2008
Actually EAH if you are serious you should google Peter Schiff. You will find the name of his brokerage , I believe it is call Pacific Securities or something. They have a few branches in manhattan.
There you can get a financial advisor (similar to any other brokerage) and they will invest your money in the overseas stocks that Mr. schiff believes will outperform over the next few years.
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Response by hsw9001
over 17 years ago
Posts: 278
Member since: Apr 2007
I thought the great American paradigm was to spend and not save.... That's why consumer spending drives the economy. Asia is different.
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Response by papavaf
over 17 years ago
Posts: 33
Member since: Jun 2008
perhaps the American paradigm is not tenable
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Response by anonymous
over 17 years ago
See, flmd provided a tangible, non fear based thought. Can we move the discussion to this realm?
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Response by dco
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1319
Member since: Mar 2008
eah- No, quite frankly at this point not doing anything is the best way to make money. Saving money in a market that only has losers is the same as making money. Every down day makes you money.
Why must you do anything. Who says that your money can't be in cash. Sure commodities have boomed, but it's just to much of a risk at this point. You may as well go to Vegas and put your money on red or black. That's my point. Even the experts are taken beatings, what makes you as an average investor think that your any better. It's just to risky. And please spare me the you're just scared. You're f%^King right I'm scared. I'm scared that for all the years I have worked to built a comfortable life for my family could be wiped out over night by some lying CEO. How's that. Paint a clear picture for you. JUST don't do anything at this point. That is the best advice.
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Response by 2009_concerns
over 17 years ago
Posts: 4
Member since: Jul 2008
the entire u.s. financial system seems to be one big mirage. Everything is debt on borrowed money. Once the consumer only has enough for food and energy, poooooooooof goes to the dollar and U.S. asset values.
Mark this post.
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Response by anonymous
over 17 years ago
do nothing is the best advice. wow. maybe you can feed your family but are you kids too afraid to leave the freaking house? you sound hysterical. are you at your computer desk in a diaper?
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Response by totallyanonymous
over 17 years ago
Posts: 661
Member since: Jul 2007
"People making $70 or $ 80,000/year buying $500,000 home with 10% down. That's not the American way was built, it the fast and lazy way."
And this was happening where exactly in Manhattan?
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Response by EddieWilson
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1112
Member since: Feb 2008
Just multiply it by 3 for Manhattan. Same game, just with bigger stakes...
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Response by eric_cartman
over 17 years ago
Posts: 300
Member since: Jun 2007
totallyanon, come on - maybe there werent ppl making 80K buying 500K houses. but i'm sure there were several people making 160K buying 1 M houses ..
who do you think lives in these new greenpoint condos? I banking VPs making quarter Mil??
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Response by totallyanonymous
over 17 years ago
Posts: 661
Member since: Jul 2007
"maybe there werent ppl making 80K buying 500K houses. but i'm sure there were several people making 160K buying 1 M houses .."
I totally agree that many folks overbought in the city. I almost did it myself and am thanking the good lord I lowballed on a "best and final" special. However, there are deals out there right now as i type this and they will get more and more attractive as the drumbeats get louder and louder. you just have to see through the noise. smarten up.
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Response by dco
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1319
Member since: Mar 2008
eah- If you knew anything about me, the last thing that would ever come to your mind is coward. I'm just realistic and someone who has seen peoples lives devastated in many ways not just financially. So when I see any threat I take the proper per-cautions. That's what men do to protect themselves and their family.
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Response by eric_cartman
over 17 years ago
Posts: 300
Member since: Jun 2007
agreed.
i'm in the market if i see a deal at 12 - 15X rent
eric
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Response by dco
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1319
Member since: Mar 2008
I can't believe that people actually think, that everyone who has bought in NYC, in the last 5 years did so within their financial means. It's actually comical. Now factor in job security and lose and were does that leave them now?
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Response by JuiceMan
over 17 years ago
Posts: 3578
Member since: Aug 2007
Can someone show me where Jim Rogers said Manhattan would tumble by 50%?
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Response by anonymous
over 17 years ago
Hmm. When you saw NYC was not overvalued why didn't you buy? If you're such a market oracle? Most "men" prefer to have a home they own for their family. Where do you live that you see such sudden and shocking financial destruction? Detroit? Argentina? You come across as fear based and negative. The vibe in your rental must be really scary.
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Response by totallyanonymous
over 17 years ago
Posts: 661
Member since: Jul 2007
"I can't believe that people actually think, that everyone who has bought in NYC, in the last 5 years did so within their financial means."
All I know is I did. And then I sold out for huge profit (tax free). Thats all I know.
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Response by bjw2103
over 17 years ago
Posts: 6236
Member since: Jul 2007
I second JuiceMan here - where did Rogers actually say this? Is there a source?
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Response by totallyanonymous
over 17 years ago
Posts: 661
Member since: Jul 2007
I know he said something like this on Fox some time ago, at least about his selling his manhattan apt. he said he lives in asia now. not sure about the 50% call but that sounds like him.
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Response by anonymous
over 17 years ago
"I can't believe that people actually think, that everyone who has bought in NYC, in the last 5 years did so within their financial means."
Again, you're ridiculous. Truly.
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Response by anonymous
over 17 years ago
I never thought I'd actually want Steve to be the leading voice of negativity. But at least he has a brain. Having dco lead the cry like a little girl in frilly underpants brigade is so tedious.
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Response by dco
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1319
Member since: Mar 2008
eah- I own.
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Response by totallyanonymous
over 17 years ago
Posts: 661
Member since: Jul 2007
if you're truly this nervous DCO and you own, then you might have overpaid. You should have sold out last year. Not saying this to be a prick but if owning makes you nervous right now, chances are you overpaid.
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Response by spunky
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1627
Member since: Jan 2007
I think dco has been either foreclosed on, or had to sell his home at a lost because he just couldn't afford it. That's why he's all pissed off.
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Response by anonymous
over 17 years ago
but you're the only one who never overpaid? only you had the sense to buy within your means? when the economy lifts, have you considered joining a cult? you have the perfect set of personality traits: convinced of your own rectitude, immense fear based preaching, tireless linking to one-sided media articles. you'd be brilliant, really.
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Response by JuiceMan
over 17 years ago
Posts: 3578
Member since: Aug 2007
"I know he said something like this on Fox some time ago, at least about his selling his manhattan apt. he said he lives in asia now. not sure about the 50% call but that sounds like him."
So the OP titled the thread "'Even Manhattan will see 50% drop: -Jim Rogers'" but he didn't actually say this. Nice.
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Response by alanhart
over 17 years ago
Posts: 12397
Member since: Feb 2007
He said it with his eyes.
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Response by dco
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1319
Member since: Mar 2008
totallyanonymous- Perhaps your right. To tell you the truth I had an offer for twice as much as I paid. I bought in 2001 and don't plan on selling. I still have a small mortgage and could pay it off tomorrow if I wanted. The reason for negativity is not based on any buying or selling angle. I just analyze the data and it's clear we are in for a major correction. The level in which most people have been living was all artificial. Everyone was trying to "keep up with the Jones". It was all revolving debt. And this concept is exactly what wall street was doing. To make it simple, it was a pyramid scheme. Keep bring people in and when enough have cashed out, others were left holding the bag. Of course the bag is empty.
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Response by 2009_concerns
over 17 years ago
Posts: 4
Member since: Jul 2008
Rogers in 2007...i'm sure he's even more in line now than ever. This guy is one solid guy. If he's sold his 15M manhattan apartment and sold U.S. dollars people ought to take notice. He's not on CNBC pumping equities...See CNBC has to make things look good, cause when the economy goes bad ad dollars are "cut".
dco, of course. you're the only person who not be hurt in this hideous downturn. sure you can pay your motgage off. sure your job is 100% stable. i bet your wife is hot, too. all this and you still don't know the difference between your and you're.
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Response by 80sMan
over 17 years ago
Posts: 633
Member since: Jun 2008
dco, be careful, you may end up sounding like petrfitz...
Wait I just read the article, he did not say 50% in Manhattan. He never even mentioned Manhattan, he said "50% in bubble areas".
What are you nuts?
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Response by MMAfia
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1071
Member since: Feb 2007
Peter Schiff told took his clients' money since 2002 and shifted them to foreign-denominated assets and gold.
He has been dead right about gold since then.
There are a plethora of clips where other analysts criticize him, until he asks them about pricing the the dollar denominated increases in the stock market since then in terms of gold. They never have anything to say- they always change the subject. Search for Peter Schiff 2002.
"People making $70 or $ 80,000/year buying $500,000 home with 10% down."
Has this been happening in NYC? RE brokers? Mortgage brokers? Can you shed some light on this? I'd like to know if this really has been going on. Thx
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Response by TwoFacedLiar
over 17 years ago
Posts: 44
Member since: Jul 2008
Jim Rogers:
Fortune Magazine, February 2008
'It's going to be much worse'
Famed investor Jim Rogers sees hard times ahead for the United States - and a big opportunity looming in China.
How about I post the link so you don't take him out of context:
and I quote:
".. But in a November (2007) interview I conducted with Rogers, he admitted that he was rooting for a serious correction in China to cool off an overheating market and bring back prices to a reasonable level."
Why don't you focus on the MAIN MESSAGE instead for a change? You're missing the bus altogether.
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Response by bramstar
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1909
Member since: May 2008
Forget all this. I'm buying a houseboat.
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Response by dco
over 17 years ago
Posts: 1319
Member since: Mar 2008
eah- "you're the only person who not be hurt in this hideous downturn"
At last you admit that we are in a "hideous downturn". You should read some of my previous post before you start shooting your mouth off. If you did, you would see that I have continuously stated that everyone will be effected by this downturn. I never said that I always made the best financial decisions. If you looked, you would find several incidents that I have posted, where I have lost money. The funny thing is I haven't heard anyone else brag about loses or bad financial decisions anyone else has made. So next time do a little research before you go and state ridiculous things about a person whom you have never met.
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thanks 2009. that was valuable. i suppose we all should all make our assets liquid and move to china. after all, we have same mobility and access as a billionaire.
underestimating jim rogers has been a very expensive proposition- he has been right on the money with Feddie/Fanny, Gold, commodities, the USD (and Fed), and foreign currencies and markets.
i'm actually surprised that he came out with this, but now that he said it, i'm beginning think the 50% drop might occur (as it did in 90 here in Manhattan).
Jim Rogers, Marc Faber, Peter Schiff -listen to these three whenever you get a chance. they have been dead right and chances are, will continue to be right.
OK, MMAfia, I agree that the men your cited are brilliant. But they are also exceptionally well placed and agile enough to take enormous chances. How do you propose the average American follow their advice? What would be their first step? And, if we all did follow their advice what would happen to America at large? Do you like the thought of that? So, Americans bet against America and then what? We all move to Asia?
Having lived in Malaysia and worked in Hong Kong and Singapore I have to say, they're not societies that will absorb other cultures the way the US has.
eah- "How do you propose the average American follow their advice"?
Well for starters don't buy. How's that for a start.
Why does everyone think that owning is a given right. You use to have to save for years to get enough money for the downpayment. Then you would buy what you could afford to pay back, not what the bank was willing to give you. The last 5 years have been a joke. People making $70 or $ 80,000/year buying $500,000 home with 10% down. That's not the American way was built, it the fast and lazy way.
Great idea dco. So, Americans should shift their entire life paradigm? They should rent and put their savings where? You can focus as much as you'd like on the rent vs buy debate but it ins't really very helpful. Why don't you get more specific than "don't buy"? Lay out a few scenarios, perhaps. Like how long one should rent for? When is it OK to buy? When have you spent too much on rent? How does the average citizen "get out of the dollar?" and what do they do if China crashes, as has been discussed.
Do you have more to offer than "don't buy"...?
Actually EAH if you are serious you should google Peter Schiff. You will find the name of his brokerage , I believe it is call Pacific Securities or something. They have a few branches in manhattan.
There you can get a financial advisor (similar to any other brokerage) and they will invest your money in the overseas stocks that Mr. schiff believes will outperform over the next few years.
I thought the great American paradigm was to spend and not save.... That's why consumer spending drives the economy. Asia is different.
perhaps the American paradigm is not tenable
See, flmd provided a tangible, non fear based thought. Can we move the discussion to this realm?
eah- No, quite frankly at this point not doing anything is the best way to make money. Saving money in a market that only has losers is the same as making money. Every down day makes you money.
Why must you do anything. Who says that your money can't be in cash. Sure commodities have boomed, but it's just to much of a risk at this point. You may as well go to Vegas and put your money on red or black. That's my point. Even the experts are taken beatings, what makes you as an average investor think that your any better. It's just to risky. And please spare me the you're just scared. You're f%^King right I'm scared. I'm scared that for all the years I have worked to built a comfortable life for my family could be wiped out over night by some lying CEO. How's that. Paint a clear picture for you. JUST don't do anything at this point. That is the best advice.
the entire u.s. financial system seems to be one big mirage. Everything is debt on borrowed money. Once the consumer only has enough for food and energy, poooooooooof goes to the dollar and U.S. asset values.
Mark this post.
do nothing is the best advice. wow. maybe you can feed your family but are you kids too afraid to leave the freaking house? you sound hysterical. are you at your computer desk in a diaper?
"People making $70 or $ 80,000/year buying $500,000 home with 10% down. That's not the American way was built, it the fast and lazy way."
And this was happening where exactly in Manhattan?
Just multiply it by 3 for Manhattan. Same game, just with bigger stakes...
totallyanon, come on - maybe there werent ppl making 80K buying 500K houses. but i'm sure there were several people making 160K buying 1 M houses ..
who do you think lives in these new greenpoint condos? I banking VPs making quarter Mil??
"maybe there werent ppl making 80K buying 500K houses. but i'm sure there were several people making 160K buying 1 M houses .."
I totally agree that many folks overbought in the city. I almost did it myself and am thanking the good lord I lowballed on a "best and final" special. However, there are deals out there right now as i type this and they will get more and more attractive as the drumbeats get louder and louder. you just have to see through the noise. smarten up.
eah- If you knew anything about me, the last thing that would ever come to your mind is coward. I'm just realistic and someone who has seen peoples lives devastated in many ways not just financially. So when I see any threat I take the proper per-cautions. That's what men do to protect themselves and their family.
agreed.
i'm in the market if i see a deal at 12 - 15X rent
eric
I can't believe that people actually think, that everyone who has bought in NYC, in the last 5 years did so within their financial means. It's actually comical. Now factor in job security and lose and were does that leave them now?
Can someone show me where Jim Rogers said Manhattan would tumble by 50%?
Hmm. When you saw NYC was not overvalued why didn't you buy? If you're such a market oracle? Most "men" prefer to have a home they own for their family. Where do you live that you see such sudden and shocking financial destruction? Detroit? Argentina? You come across as fear based and negative. The vibe in your rental must be really scary.
"I can't believe that people actually think, that everyone who has bought in NYC, in the last 5 years did so within their financial means."
All I know is I did. And then I sold out for huge profit (tax free). Thats all I know.
I second JuiceMan here - where did Rogers actually say this? Is there a source?
I know he said something like this on Fox some time ago, at least about his selling his manhattan apt. he said he lives in asia now. not sure about the 50% call but that sounds like him.
"I can't believe that people actually think, that everyone who has bought in NYC, in the last 5 years did so within their financial means."
Again, you're ridiculous. Truly.
I never thought I'd actually want Steve to be the leading voice of negativity. But at least he has a brain. Having dco lead the cry like a little girl in frilly underpants brigade is so tedious.
eah- I own.
if you're truly this nervous DCO and you own, then you might have overpaid. You should have sold out last year. Not saying this to be a prick but if owning makes you nervous right now, chances are you overpaid.
I think dco has been either foreclosed on, or had to sell his home at a lost because he just couldn't afford it. That's why he's all pissed off.
but you're the only one who never overpaid? only you had the sense to buy within your means? when the economy lifts, have you considered joining a cult? you have the perfect set of personality traits: convinced of your own rectitude, immense fear based preaching, tireless linking to one-sided media articles. you'd be brilliant, really.
"I know he said something like this on Fox some time ago, at least about his selling his manhattan apt. he said he lives in asia now. not sure about the 50% call but that sounds like him."
So the OP titled the thread "'Even Manhattan will see 50% drop: -Jim Rogers'" but he didn't actually say this. Nice.
He said it with his eyes.
totallyanonymous- Perhaps your right. To tell you the truth I had an offer for twice as much as I paid. I bought in 2001 and don't plan on selling. I still have a small mortgage and could pay it off tomorrow if I wanted. The reason for negativity is not based on any buying or selling angle. I just analyze the data and it's clear we are in for a major correction. The level in which most people have been living was all artificial. Everyone was trying to "keep up with the Jones". It was all revolving debt. And this concept is exactly what wall street was doing. To make it simple, it was a pyramid scheme. Keep bring people in and when enough have cashed out, others were left holding the bag. Of course the bag is empty.
Rogers in 2007...i'm sure he's even more in line now than ever. This guy is one solid guy. If he's sold his 15M manhattan apartment and sold U.S. dollars people ought to take notice. He's not on CNBC pumping equities...See CNBC has to make things look good, cause when the economy goes bad ad dollars are "cut".
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSL1470530620070314
dco, of course. you're the only person who not be hurt in this hideous downturn. sure you can pay your motgage off. sure your job is 100% stable. i bet your wife is hot, too. all this and you still don't know the difference between your and you're.
dco, be careful, you may end up sounding like petrfitz...
Always look out for:
Jim Rogers
Marc Faber
Peter Schiff
This trio have been spot on.
WATCH MARC FABER - do not be fooled:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3g7Ln2wc4Ww
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t7zs_fxKLrA
Peter Schiff has been dead wrong on gold.
Wait I just read the article, he did not say 50% in Manhattan. He never even mentioned Manhattan, he said "50% in bubble areas".
What are you nuts?
Peter Schiff told took his clients' money since 2002 and shifted them to foreign-denominated assets and gold.
He has been dead right about gold since then.
There are a plethora of clips where other analysts criticize him, until he asks them about pricing the the dollar denominated increases in the stock market since then in terms of gold. They never have anything to say- they always change the subject. Search for Peter Schiff 2002.
DOW in nominal USD:
http://goldsilver.com/dow_crashing/1-Dow.png
DOW priced in GOLD instead of nominal USD (now inflated to worthless paper):
http://goldsilver.com/dow_crashing/4-Dow-Gold.png
GOLD:
http://goldsilver.com/dow_crashing/3-Gold.png
"50% in bubble areas".
Wow. He really went out on a limb there.
IndyMac just got shut down by the feds...
80s, where did you see that?
Got it
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=atrd9_l.GrL8&refer=home
"People making $70 or $ 80,000/year buying $500,000 home with 10% down."
Has this been happening in NYC? RE brokers? Mortgage brokers? Can you shed some light on this? I'd like to know if this really has been going on. Thx
Jim Rogers:
Fortune Magazine, February 2008
'It's going to be much worse'
Famed investor Jim Rogers sees hard times ahead for the United States - and a big opportunity looming in China.
So China:
Go and take a look at the Chinese stock indices
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=SHSZ300:IND
started 2008 at 5400 and is today at 2950.
Good stuff on Jim Rogers.
TwoFacedLiar,
Did you even read the article in Fed 2008?
How about I post the link so you don't take him out of context:
and I quote:
".. But in a November (2007) interview I conducted with Rogers, he admitted that he was rooting for a serious correction in China to cool off an overheating market and bring back prices to a reasonable level."
http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/30/news/international/okeefe_rogers.fortune/index.htm
Nice try though.
Why don't you focus on the MAIN MESSAGE instead for a change? You're missing the bus altogether.
Forget all this. I'm buying a houseboat.
eah- "you're the only person who not be hurt in this hideous downturn"
At last you admit that we are in a "hideous downturn". You should read some of my previous post before you start shooting your mouth off. If you did, you would see that I have continuously stated that everyone will be effected by this downturn. I never said that I always made the best financial decisions. If you looked, you would find several incidents that I have posted, where I have lost money. The funny thing is I haven't heard anyone else brag about loses or bad financial decisions anyone else has made. So next time do a little research before you go and state ridiculous things about a person whom you have never met.