Timing of looking for a Rental Apartment

Timing is great! There are tons of bargain rental deals in the market. Tribeca 2 bedroom $2,100 a month, 3 bedroom run $2,800 to $4,200..... Good luck!

inoeverything, you are really kidding or those apartments are worse than dumps. Newbuyer99, rental prices normally drop somewhat starting November 1 because of the holiday season and start to pick up again starting March. To find a nice three bedroom though could be difficult if you are looking for a big price drop in a decent area.

I have relo clients coming in looking for a convertible 3 or a straight 3, and they are open to about 3 neighborhoods on the West Side. I have eight things to show them for October 1st, and I can stretch it to 15 if I really want to go into the B-level inventory.

But the short version is, there probably won't be much out there that fits your criteria. That makes the hunt fairly easy, in a way, but it might disgruntle you if you're a completist.

Normally I would say your choice of dates wouldn't matter much, but I'd be a little nervous about a possible post-election rush, so I'd say go for 10/1 or 11/1.

Also, if you want outdoor space too, be prepared to reach into your wallet.

ali r.
{downtown broker}

> a possible post-election rush

What is a post-election rush? Everyone in the McCain campain will go looking for Wall Street jobs?

Ali, appreciate your thoughts. I agree that there just aren't that many apartments that fit our criteria, but we're not nearly as picky when it comes to a rental for the next 1-3 years as we would be when it comes to buying for the next 7-10 years.

Seems there are conflicting opinions, though. csn thinks prices drop for the winter, Ali thinks there may be a post-election rush (can you elaborate, btw?). Any other opinions? Thanks again.

What I mean by "post-election rush"

for real estate, the typical pre-election psychology is that potential buyers dither -- there's a mood of uncertainty in the air due to the election, and that infects buyers, and they shop and shop, but they don't make offers (sound familiar)?

Well, in November, we'll have a new president, whoever he is. And my guess is that simultaneously, interest rates will bump up a little bit as Wall Street realizes there's a fiscal mess to be cleaned up.

Some of the sideliners will see the rate bump -- and, at the same time, the lack of this weird instant 40% price decline they've been praying for. It will suddenly sink in that the prices that they are seeing in the market will be the prices for awhile, and many of those people, who might have been month to month because they thought they were buyers, will go trooping off to the rental market.

that's my theory, anyway. I realize it sounds a little exaggerated, but inventory is so thin in this particular rental niche that it only takes a small number of people on the margins to move the market.

ali r.
{downtown broker}

just adding my two cents (and i am not a broker), but there's a 2 (convertible 3 ) bedroom at the churchill (300 e 40th) for $5500- the dining room can be converted, the the apts have terraces-- good luck, newbuyer 99!

Ali, thanks for explanation of post-election rush - definitely sounds plausible, although I hadn't realized there are significant numbers of people doing month-to-month leases while they look to potentially buy.

shirsch - much appreciate the suggestion, not loving the location but it might work - will take a look.

> What I mean by "post-election rush"

Is there *any* event in history that the brokers don't say will be followed by some real estate rush/uptick?

;-)

WOW, "post-election rush." Now that is spin! Even the biggest PR BS-ers I know wouldn't try and pull that one off. Took some cojones to come up with that absolutely grandiose spin and REACHING conclusion. Students didn't save August, but there will be significant rental activity from VOTERS to save the holidays! Never fear!

$2,100 a month for a 2 bedroom and $2,800 a month for a 3 bedroom in Tribeca? Are you serious? Can you post links to these places because I would seriously be interested in them.

Thanks!

As we used to say on Wall Street -- past performance is no predictor of future performance.

However, since the question asked us to gaze into our crystal balls, that's what I saw in mine.

(wink right back at you, nyc10022).

Frequent readers of this board know that I tend to do high-end downtown work, and there's still a market there. It doesn't include students since students generally don't make enough to buy or rent high-end lofts. As far as the customers who do, many of them are sitting on the fence now. It would be spin for me to say anything else.

ali r.
{downtown broker}

> However, since the question asked us to gaze into our crystal balls, that's what I saw in mine.
> wink right back at you, nyc10022).

Not quite sure about that... "Interested in hearing opinions on both seasonality and other macro factors" is a far cry from "please make something up". ;-)

And stop winking at me...