Goldman Sachs May Slash 3,200 Jobs as Credit Turmoil Worsens

The surreal thing for me is wandering around all the cranes and jackhammers in the Chelsea gallery district. As I watch the financial markets crumble and layoffs spread, the beautiful new castles keep rising and rising - totally oblivious to the carnage on Wall Street.

Not totally oblivious - once they start they have to complete. Part of why this is the perfect storm, as I posted months ago.

Literally. I work part-time for a prestigious banquet hall in the city and the Director of Banquet management said that all companies above along with other banks aren't having a holiday party this season. They usually have had some of these clients for a few years, but now they have decided not to go ahead and book a party. He also said to expect next year to be just as busy as January and February. January and February are the deadest months in the year when it comes to parties....

And it dawned on me yesterday that a large part of what happened here happened during the dot.com boom: in the latter case, fraudulent research, in the former, fraudulent ratings. Essentially the same thing. Ratings agencies are now allowed to rate securities and companies with impunity - doesn't matter if they're right or wrong, they can't be held liable.

Expect that to change. Expect Obama to appoint Volcker secretary of the treasury, and restructure the entire banking system. I don't care what anyone says, we will never see anything like this again. It is plain that the model for investment banks (and hedge funds) to make money is to create an asset bubble, then deflate it. This time, however, they got caught up in the mix, as have so many others.

50% decline in Manhattan real estate as the investment banker jobs disappear or are moved to Charlotte, risk and leverage are reigned in, transparency is brought back into the financial sector. We're going back to the calmer times of the 50's and 60's - slow, steady growth.

stevejhx, i agree entirely. Wealth, jobs, and brains, are moving out of NYC, and this trend will only accelerate in the upcoming years.

A couple of questions for Steve:

The decline in the early nineties was pretty slow and drawn-out. How long do you think it will take before we see an average 50% decline for Manhattan residential real estate? Is it likely that new construction will be the first to go?

Good thing for Chicago, I guess... it can't lose what it doesn't have.

MAN, does porker boy make it easy...

i can confirm that goldman sachs is laying off. a friend of ours who is a director there was told on monday to look for a new job

Does anyone have a sense as to how many of the announced layoffs hit NYC?

"Ignoring comment by rufus."

Topper, I don't know for sure, but I think it will be rapid as inventory is rising quickly and nothing is moving, and many people have been wiped out. In terms of the stock market, this is the worst since the Depression, however, so I don't think anyone can be certain. And unlike in the 80's, there will be a massive overhaul of the financial services industry, as there was in the 30's. It took until 1956 for the Dow to recover to the levels seen pre-1929.

That said, this is a very different, interlocked world, with growth foci outside the US - Europe, China, India, Russia, Brazil - so things (in stock-market terms) could reverse themselves quickly. That, however, will be too late for real estate, as incomes in NYC are falling rapidly, as has wealth.

stevejhx, you admit that wealth is falling rapidly in NYC, which is definitely true. And yet the others on this board insist that's false. I guess they are all immune to facts.

Rufus, until you pledge to stop posting all those stupid comments about Chicago, you're ignored.

Of course someone else will have to tell me if there's a pledge.

Hope you're right as regards Manhattan residential real estate. That would be nice (spoken as a wannabe Manhattan owner).

As an fyi, commerical real estate as seen in REITs have taken a particularly sharp drop in recent months. As a result, the MS REIT index cash yield has broken the 9% level today - pretty nice yield in pretty much any environment. (And a whole lot higher yield than you'd get renting out a Manhattan condo at today's prices!)

Anyone have good figures on the actual job losses so far in nyc this year?

My employer laid off 20-25% of staff this week. Effin depressing, I'll tell you.

will it make sense to buy RE in manhattan even at 50% lower prices than now? you are basically acquiring the obligation to pay property taxes that will have to compensate the loss in tax revenue due to this meltdown.

lately i'm thinking that for gen x's like me an affordable rent could be the smartest thing to do in nyc, even in the long run. what will happen to prop taxes is key in my view.

remember all those public employees retiring soon (baby boomers). does anybody know to what extent is their pension fund is unfunded? add the losses that public pension funds are beginning to show. that will be paid by future tax payers. i would like to think that benefits will be cut, but somehow in these cases usually only future employees benefits do get cut. this is also relevant for new jersey.

"Anyone have good figures on the actual job losses so far in nyc this year?"

The city says it will be 163,000, but it may be more if more isn't done to straighten out this mess & make sure it never happens again.

Topper, oh man you poor thing. If your hoping for a 50% decline to be able to move into Manhattan than your a mess. I think you should start familarizing yourself with Metro North and the LIRR. You want to live where everyone else wants to live and you can't compete. As I've said over and over manhattan is 1000X more likely to experience 5-10% price increases in 2 years than a 50% drop...... Go wipe your nose.

Note that the city is basing projections on data its getting from not so reputable sources.

Crain's that came out yesterday (print) noted that the city undercounts and undercounts... their original estimates just a few months back were 50-80k. And they seem to be getting data from industry groups, like the commercial real estate council that said commercial vacancies would only hit 7% (they're on their way to hit 10%).

So, we all know its going to be big, but I'm not trusting the city to get the projections right...

steveF, the snark and attitude is unwarranted. If you were a buyer, the thought of a 50% drop would be appealing, no need to knock that. I think it's a bit much to say 50% off, but I see nothing wrong with people being patient in this environment as the credit situation gets sorted out. At that point, I think if people find apartments they truly love and can afford, you'll start to see more movement again.

spouse and I are both in finance. After 20 years in nyc we've decided we'll leave if we lose our jobs. You can burn through your savings too fast in this city and we're too old to do that and we have a family to support.

Admin -- Its safer to be a renter these days if your employment is at all uncertain. There's flexibility in renting.

SteveF -- you're smoking crack, or the rest of us are, by calling for an increase. So, tell you what, I'll take the other side of your trade. On the profits I can keep my job.

or "think" the rest of us are. why isn't there an edit feature on this board?

"There's flexibility in renting," and it can take them a year to evict you, unless you stop paying until they agree to lower your rent.

"manhattan is 1000X more likely to experience 5-10% price increases in 2 years"

Based on what, steveF? The large number of job losses, the nonexistent bonuses, the virtual wipe-out of equity on the stock market, the contraction of the economy, the ever increasing tax burden?

Those are the positives as I see them. Maybe you can chip in on the negatives.

Agreed with bjw, you are going a little too far here.

That being said, I think you're also wrong...

> As I've said over and over manhattan is 1000X more likely to experience 5-10% price increases in 2
> years than a 50% drop

Given that multiple sources have already noted greater than 10% drops already, and panic period numbers aren't even in yet, we're getting pretty close to you being 100% wrong.

The chance of only a 5-10% drop is pretty much 0. The chance of a 50% drop, even if its just 10%, would still be much greater... we're certainly going to test that area of decline...

Shocked, I tell you, shocked!!!

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=OBR&date=20081023&id=9314711

(Greenspan "shocked" at credit system breakdown)

as with everything in life, the strong will survive and come out on top. the losers who jumped on the bandwagon during the bull market will be cut, they had a nice ride freeloading off the rainmakers.

and steve, I'm terribly sorry your masters degree in espanol from columbia didn't get you far in life, but you really need to stop sounding so bitter about wall st. everyone's hurting, and sure my condo will probably end up losing 20% or whatever, but it's not the end of the world. Believe it or not, one can still live comfortably on base salary, bonuses are just icing on the cake.

"Adjusted for inflation" coop prices actually dropped more than 50% in the early 90s. (Check out stats from Miller Samuel and adjust for annual CPI numbers.)

Manhattan coop price per square foot rose 274% from 1997 to the end of 2007. That increase was far greater than the increase we saw in the eighties.

At the same time the New York economy is taking a dive and is unlikely to quickly recover. Not at all clear that investing banking will ever be as profitable as it used to be with all the leverage. And the Europeans are retreating as the dollar recovers. Coop/condo price-to-rent ratios are totally out of synch with normal historical levels.

So I rent in Manhattan and own elsewhere.

SteveF: you're just shootin' from the hip as usual. Try adding some substance to your remarks!

"steve, I'm terribly sorry your masters degree in espanol from columbia didn't get you far in life"

It got me on TV.

"but you really need to stop sounding so bitter about wall st."

I'm not bitter at all. I feel sorry for the innocent people who lost or are losing or will lose their jobs. BUT - everyone said (rightly) that Wall Street was propping up property prices, and now - especially realtors - they're denying that its demise will cause them to fall.

"everyone's hurting"

Me, too, and I'm cutting back on expenses just like everybody else. My job is fine and my income is fine, but like everyone I'm down 50%-70% since last year on the stock market. Fortunately, I have cash.

"sure my condo will probably end up losing 20% or whatever"

50%

"but it's not the end of the world."

Absolutely. But it's the end of the property bubble, and very bad news for people who need to sell short-term.

"Believe it or not, one can still live comfortably on base salary, bonuses are just icing on the cake."

I certainly can, but for most Wall Streeters, the bulk of their pay is in bonus.

alanhart, I LMAO'd when I saw that, too. "Shocked! Shocked there is greed! And fraud!"

That is so laaaaaame! How could he not know after the Asian currency crisis and the dot.com bust that the way Wall Street made money was through fraud and creating bubbles?

It was his job for 18.5 years.

LP1 - don't bother suggesting SteveF put his money where his mouth was. He's posted his silly prediction on another thread, I offered to take that bet, and he gave some excuse and then disappeared.

newbuyer99 - did SteveF even give an excuse? or did he just disappear?

SteveF merely rails hysterically that NYC real estate will only go up then if you challenge him with any facts or arguments, he disappears.

Btw - global markets around the world crashing today. The Dow and S&P futures already down 6%. Limits have been hit. Russian stock trading was suspended.

The euro is at $1.25.
The pound is at $1.54
The CAD is at $0.78
Gold at $685
Oil at $64

Boy does this feel like capitulation.

interestingly enough, the Dow bounced off the quick low, which was still 300-400 points off the old low...

"Boy does this feel like capitulation"

I sort of agree, but I've also heard that several times in the last month. Tread carefully...

although one of the other times that was said was the low, which got tested today but we bounced off...

Wall Street layoffs could surge past 200,000

By JOE BEL BRUNO – 1 day ago

NEW YORK (AP) — Traders and investment bankers might have more to worry about than dwindling bonus pools this year as mass firings on Wall Street are set to hit a record.

The fallout from this year's global credit crisis has claimed jobs on all corners of Wall Street, from hedge fund managers to floor traders and beyond. More than 110,000 have lost their jobs so far this year, and some industry experts forecast it could come close to 200,000 before the year is over.

Even the financial industry's biggest name isn't immune. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., the world's biggest investment bank, made plans on Thursday to cut 3,200 positions from its staff of 32,000. Barclays Capital is in the midst of purging 3,000 jobs as part of its takeover of Lehman Brothers, and Bank of America Corp.'s acquisition of Merrill Lynch & Co. is sure to add thousands more.

Major U.S. financial companies are getting rid of redundancies caused by this year's rapid-fire consolidation. They are also adapting to an environment of more regulation, less risk, and dwindling profits.

"Wall Street the way we know it is frankly gone," said Dr. Michael Williams, dean of the graduate school of business at Touro College in New York. "This was inevitable because there's just not enough money out there to support the huge staffs these banks and investment banks had before."

Williams and other analysts believe this next wave of cutbacks will be the biggest the American financial industry has faced since massive bank failures in the 1930s. He believes up to 250,000 financial workers — perhaps even more — could find themselves out of work by the second quarter of next year.

U.S. financial services companies have cut 111,201 positions through September, on top of 153,105 made last year, according to Chicago-based outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association said there are currently 867,400 people employed by their members that include securities firms, brokerages, stock exchanges, and banks.

John Challenger, chief executive of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, said layoffs will surge in the next few months as companies begin to position themselves for 2009. In addition, cutting employees before the year's end in some cases eliminates hefty bonus payments.

"There's been heavy layoffs already, but until you see events start to slow down, we're not out of the woods," he said. "These companies, even the very best of them like Goldman, are subject to the conditions of much lower activity and much less revenue."

For the two surviving stand-alone investment banks, Golman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, the business environment might slow as they reshape themselves into companies that more closely resemble retail banks. That means they'll be more regulated, with greater limits on their ability to take risk.

There also remains uncertainty about how many banks might fail, even with the government's various bailouts. Banks that have heavy exposure to toxic mortgage investments and other risky bets might collapse or be acquired by healthier banks, in the next year.

Washington Mutual Corp., the Washington-based thrift, is in the process of unloading its retail branches to JPMorgan Chase & Co., and Wachovia Corp. is selling its retail network to Wells Fargo & Co. The number of jobs lost is still unknown from those transactions.

BofA's acquisition of Merrill Lynch could result in thousands of lost jobs, especially in areas like technology, operations and finance. Both sides are still attempting to map out where the cuts will come from, and there were reports this week that Merrill had already sent pink slips to 500 or more traders in New York.

A spokeswoman for Merrill declined to comment.
Hosted by Google
Copyright © 2008 The Associated Press. All rights reserved.

Does the financial crisis facing NYC make you feel that Bloomburg is best suited to handle it & therefore should serve another term?

I'm thinking yes; out of all others, he's best suited.

This above came from http:
//ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5h_5yBHNpuzJ6X6VhNDxV2LIRrPYgD940D5G00
The game is over for Wall ST and it's not coming back. The greed and chicanery on Wall St with securitized deriratives, CDO's SIVS etc... have infected the world, all markets are imploding in Asia Europe and Latin America. Yes can you say fire sale....but you will need a city job and aroung 30-50% down to pick these units up.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5h_5yBHNpuzJ6X6VhNDxV2LIRrPYgD940D5G00

Remember this is only the third inning of a double header....the amount of derivatives and CDO's, SIV's are greater than the whole world GDP and all this $700B bailout is doing is shoring up the 9 major banks balance sheets to keep the rest of the CDO's from defaulting....it's the Wizard of OZ Paulson doesn't want to pull the curtain back because he knows what's there. Remember commercial real estate debt is massive and now unraveling, junk bonds renamed equity bonds to finance all those mergers and aqusitions which basically destroyed companies but provided massive fees for Wall Street are now imploding too.
I know all too well the carnage caused by Junk Bonds from Mike Milken in 1989 at the criminal syndicate Drexyl Burnam who put at 1.5 billion debt on Prime Computer a high tech minicomputer maker, we employed 16,000 workers three manufacturing plants in Boston Mass about 2 billion in Sales but we were crushed by the debt load while these pigs on Wall St took $500 million up front in fees while we went bankrupt three years later. Massive corporate debt still today from this junk bonds which are defaulting. Hey what about the one trillion $ debt from credit cards that is now hurting the balance sheets of Capital One Bank of America etc....yep folks Wall St has been pressuring companies to outsource good paying jobs to ramp up stock prices so the can pay themselves giant salaries and bonuses....so they had to create a housing boom to creat all those jobs because construction can't be outsourced and created tons of jobs. Homes were used as ATM's and it's was magic like a bank to finance consumer greed.

And let's not forget the currency problem:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/25/business/25currency.html?hp

"So great are the concerns among policy makers about the turmoil in currency markets that it has prompted talk of a coordinated intervention by the leading industrial countries in coming days, to quell the soaring dollar and put a floor under emerging-market currencies.

Such a move — in which the Federal Reserve and other central banks would sell dollars and yen and buy other currencies — has been used extremely sparingly by the United States in recent years.

“The risk is huge, but it is appropriate at this point, because if the emerging markets go into default, the consequences would be catastrophic,” said Kenneth S. Rogoff, an economist at Harvard.

When a developing country’s currency loses value rapidly, it impedes the ability to pay back loans from Western banks. That could cause a rash of corporate or even government defaults — a feature of previous financial crises in Asia and Latin America.

The government is pumping liquidity into the banking system so that banks can lend money on credit which creates more debt in order pull themselves out of this crisis.....isn't this what got us into this mess in the first place? With rising unemployment how in hell is creating more debt a way out of this mess?
Problem is Wall Street created an economy based on credit and debt that enabled them to pocket $63 billion dollars in bonuses alone in 2006 not including salaries, scary they just took this up front for years and now the collateral damage is evident...smoke and mirrors. which is now biting us in the ass. Yes there will be a fire sale in real estate there is no way around it. No foreigners to buy up this excess anymore because they are losing their shirts too now with the world economy imploding and the strength of the dollar during this crisis rising making real estate more expensive for them anyway.

Five million more unemployed?
Posted Oct 24 2008, 06:39 AM by Douglas McIntyre Rating: Filed under: Lehman Bros, banking, Citigroup, GM, JPMorgan, Wachovia, Wells Fargo, credit crisis
No matter where economists look there is no evidence that a recession in the US, EU, and Asia is doing anything but deepening. The stock markets are the least of it. Some of the indexes in the largest countries are off 40% from their peaks reached a year ago. Banks are failing. In cases where the government has not stepped in some have disappeared and others have been merged into more healthy institutions. Healthy for now, that is.

The financial sector could easily lose several hundred thousand jobs in the US. New York City expects employment in the banking and brokerage sector to fall by 150,000. Marriages like the ones between Bear Stearns and JP Morgan and Wachovia (WB) and Wells Fargo will clearly put tens of thousands of people out of jobs. Goldman Sachs apparently will let 10% of its workers go.

The trouble has spread well beyond banks. Merck, Xerox, GM, and Chrysler just said they will push more poor souls out the door. Even a successful tech company such as Hewlett-Packard has taken significant numbers of people out of its workforce.

So, how many people, how many people in total could lose their employment over the next year?
In the recession which started in 1973, unemployment hit about 9%. As of last month, the comparable figure was at 6.1%. With a national labor force in the US of about 145 million people, that means 4.5 million more people could be out of work relatively soon. That does not take into account the “shadow” army of unemployed, the people the government says are no longer looking for jobs.

Economists, particularly those with a dark view of the world, are concerned that 9% may not be the end of it. As people lose work, retail spending drops which can lead to more layoffs. The housing crisis could get worse and foreclosures may rise. More people with mortgages could find themselves “underwater”, a term which lacks the power of describing the dilemma. Credit is rarely given to those with such substantial leverage, although it was common in 2005 and 2006.

The press and those in despair almost always turn to the government for answers to the most perplexing questions. But, in this case they will not get an answer. Short of what was done in the 1930s. there are no ready solutions and even a series of actions like those taken by Roosevelt might do no good.

Put bluntly, it is hard to imagine that at least another five million people will not lose their jobs over the next twelve months. No matter how much money is pumped into the banking and mortgage systems, the carnage cannot be prevented. It will be left to private enterprise to take advantage of the situation, a process which is fueled by opportunistic thinking and greed. Bottom fishing will become an art. Finding opportunities in the rubble will make some people rich. At that point, the economy will start to drive back up again. The rich willing to take risks almost always sense a bottom.

Top Stocks blogger Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

Related articles:

I agree that the economy is in tough times but all you doom and bloomers need to realize that not all companies are down. We produce educational tv shows, toys, and software for children. Our sales are 15% above last year and we are hiring. New York won't be drained of wealth, other wealth will replace the lost wealth. There is wealth being made by contrarians and other non market related industries. People will adjust and find new ways of creating wealth. Some money will go away but a good portion will be transferrd or transformed to other people or industries. In the long run this down turn will be more true with the first law of thermodynamics than steves doom and gloom.

My point is instead of sitting here all day wallowing in bad news you should spend your time being creative and looking for ways to reinvent your earning potential.

Petrfitz you are right but you must understand the anger and fear is real, we were raped by Wall ST so these big swinging dicks could pull down $200 million bonuses on top of their obscene salaries. Many people now can't retire their pensions and retirement funds have been decimated, property became unfordable, rents are obscene. They destroyed the very fabric of he American economy by forcing outsourcing to drive up stock prices so they can then dump stocks and take massive fees thru mergers and acquisitions etc.... they must be held accountable. With that said there's opportunities in this downturn, people will now have to save up then when they could afford it then go out and buy things, no more easy credit, no more speculation, no more instant gratification.

Perfitz, you still standing by your call to buy Manhattan RE in January?

"My point is instead of sitting here all day wallowing in bad news you should spend your time being creative and looking for ways to reinvent your earning potential."

Or alternatively, you should sit here all day typing on a blog trying to convince people that you do something else besides sit here all day.

Ha, LOL.

It is a little ironic coming from the guy who has spent more time posting than anyone in the history of man.

beatyerputz - i guess that you havent noticed that the above was my first post all week?

I have actually been vacationing watching the money the roll into my company and getting rested up for the holiday rush where we are going to sell a ton of product.

NYC10022 - I am looking at several properties and may actually buy early in the new year. I have bids on another jersey shore property that is discounted 50% from a year ago and a prime brooklyn townhouse that is down about 20%. So yes if the right deal is there I will buy. Just like Warren Buffet I see that this is a good time to buy American - both real estate and certain stocks.

> I have bids on another jersey shore property that is discounted 50% from a year ago and a prime
> brooklyn townhouse that is down about 20

Hmmm... so properties are down 20-50% since you told everyone to buy.

Nice job!

> I have actually been vacationing watching the money the roll into my company

Oh no, not this again... Perfitz calls everything wrong, but its ok because he has a hot girlfriend, cash in the bank that doubles every 3 hours, and he is, btw, superman.

Cmon petrfitz, fess up. You couldn't post for a week because your computer died, didn't it? You should have upgraded from Windows 95 years ago. Or was it because they cut off your electricity?

nyc10022 - the entire world is not as simple as a simpleton like you sees it. These two propeties are not reflective of the entire market.

Jersey shore house is discounted because the owner died and the property is in an estate where all property is being liquidated. The value is also decreased in my favor as I currently own a property next door the restricts access to certain aspects of the property for sale. Mainly it is a waterfront property that needs a right of access to use riparian rights, and I own the right of access.

The townhouse in question is 20% off asking of a few months ago but the current owner bought in 2003 and if he sells it now for what I am bidding he will make $1 mil minus about $200K in rennovations. He is a wall streeter who wants to get out of his mortgage.

So both the opportunities I am looking have slight decreases due to the market but the majority of the discounts is due to specific issues of the individual property not the macro economy.

nyc10022 - get your facts straight it is a hot wife.

It must suck to be a bitter loser who cant see any opportunity in the world. I feel sorry for you Eddie.

beatyerputz - you are a putz. I am posting from my iphone while sitting pool side relaxing in the desert sun.

petrfitz
I have actually been vacationing watching the money the roll into my company and getting rested up for the holiday rush where we are going to sell a ton of product.

Good that there are still opportunities in the economy.

Not impressive to gloat when others may be in pain.

hech - is it impressive to dash other peoples hope and aspirations by continously posting doom and gloom and trying to convince everyone that there is no hope?

I see TONS of opportunity out there. I hired a few more people this month. Stocks represent a great long term opportunity. There are markets to be taken advantage of.

I also see huge opportunities to lose money. You, unfortunately, manage to find yourself in all of them. There is opportunity out there, but that doesn't mean everything is an opportunity to make money.

That you claim otherwise is insane. You told folks to buy Manhattan RE in JANUARY. You are the poster boy for the bubble...

I can't think of anyone whose advice has been more perfectly backward...

"I am posting from my iphone while sitting pool side relaxing in the desert sun."

I get it. You're a towelboy. Petrfitz, they probably don't pay you to sit, so you better get off yer ass and hand out some towels.

hech - you must be new here.

Let me explain petrfitz. He is our little punching bag. You will soon understand why. He amuses us, like a mouse amuses a cat.

There is always opportunity in America. Some have easier opportunity than others for sure.

I'm not sure if those who have extra opportunity and an easier time are better people if they gloat or if they just collect their wealth silently and do nothing for other people.

NYC what does your company do? Who did you hire? EddieWilson? I bet you are a day trader

Towels, Petrfitz, towels!! Get back to work!!

beatyour do you ever add value or are you a complete troll? What do you do for aliving? I bet you are an out of work assistant to a out of work junior trader.

"NYC what does your company do? Who did you hire? EddieWilson? I bet you are a day trader"

"What do you do for aliving? I bet you are an out of work assistant to a out of work junior trader."

Questions for everybody!! Who am I, Petrfitz? I am someone who can't resist ridiculing you. You make it so very easy. But I admit it's getting a little boring.

Did perfitz just call someone else a troll?

neither of you are proud enough of your careers to answer. We will take that as you are both day traders wantabe wall streeters

Yes, some day I hope to be "proud" enough that I can boast on an anonymous board about my "success", and forget to take "credit" for the fact that I gave pretty much the WORST INVESTMENT ADVICE EVER.

"Buy Manhattan RE" in January... that one is going up on my board...

http://curbed.com/archives/2007/08/17/your_morning_credit_crunch_end_of_an_era.php

"Sneaky Pete says:

With all this panicking going on in the real estate markets, it is a really good time to buy.

By Sneaky Pete at August 17, 2007 10:23 AM"

Troll/daytrader/nyc10022/eddiewilson kind of the exact quote buffet said about buying when everyone else is afraid?

I bought in nov 08 and have a great property. You have been paralyzed by fear for the past 2 years

What have you invested in?

Dammit, I couldn't resist responding!! I thought I'd be able to ignore him but... he's just so easy to pummel.

Petrfitz, in your sentence above replace the words "paralyzed by fear" with "smart enough not to buy" and you'll have one of the few accurate statements you've made on this board.

November 07?

yes nov 07

> kind of the exact quote buffet said about buying when everyone else is afraid?

Uh, everyone isn't afraid yet. Still geniuses like you thinking its time to buy....

We are nowhere near capitulation...

> You have been paralyzed by fear for the past 2 years

Seems like that worked out PERFECTLY. I've saved TONS by not buying. Thanks for asking!

Actually, thisis funny... Sneaky Rufus thought August 2007 was panic. Now he thinks now is panic.
Guess who has no idea what panic is?

How does real estate capitulate in a market with limited and non-fungible inventory?

As a hedge fund guy... The irony is I don't care if finance is less lucrative, if homes, tuitions and the cost of my drinks has to go down right along with it. There will still be a place for money managers, and maybe some other kinds of neighbors besides douche investment bankers.

Nyc10022 I like many of your posts, but to pretend you are sure this is not the bottom... You may be right but if you were sure, then go spend your savings on deep out of the money put options. When a market get cuts in half, don't be silly and pretend there's no chance this could have been the bottom. My favorite is the cover of Time with Depression era photos on it. Classic and often accurate signal of a bottom. I also enjoy real estate bulls who will buy here for the long term down 15% from peak, but lambaste you for buying a stock market almost 50% from a peak that only tied the prior peak from 2000. The math just doesn't support you and owning stock in not the same as declaring the bottom, it's just sound personal financial management. If you are under 40 and can't afford to have a little money in stock here, you need to save more, or you should never have owned any at any time in the last 15 years by the numbers.

Rhino, I was talking about RE.... read the thread. Pete tried to use the Buffett quote as an excuse to buy real estate...

In stocks, I think we might be around the bottom already...

and, on another thread, note that I also called for SSO at 7800...

Did they