ON the eve of a new year, it is becoming clear that the real estate market in Hudson County, the “Gold Coast” zone just across the river from Manhattan, will have to wait at least two years to celebrate a more prosperous era. [...] Manhattan now has an 11.8-month supply of unsold inventory, said Jeffrey G. Otteau, whose Old Bridge, N.J., company analyzes contract sales figures and advises real... [more]
ON the eve of a new year, it is becoming clear that the real estate market in Hudson County, the “Gold Coast” zone just across the river from Manhattan, will have to wait at least two years to celebrate a more prosperous era.
[...]
Manhattan now has an 11.8-month supply of unsold inventory, said Jeffrey G. Otteau, whose Old Bridge, N.J., company analyzes contract sales figures and advises real estate brokers. “This is not terribly big,” he said, “but it is significantly bigger than a year ago — and much bigger than the days when multiple bidders were circling around every available unit on the market.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/28/realestate/28zone.html?ref=realestate
"Not terribly big"? Really? First, the inventory is twice that size, and second, the rate of uptake has collapsed to half the historic rate or below. And more coming on line every day. Wait till March.
Anything over a 6-month supply is considered a buyer's market.
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Response by i_want_to_buy_in_09
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 113
Member since: Dec 2008
yes yes yes.....
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Response by alpine292
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008
Hudson County is a dump. Even if prices fell 75% I would not buy there. 95% of Hudson is the equivalent of a 3rd world country.
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Response by stevejhx
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008
They're discussing the prime riverfront areas, close to Manhattan.
I know they are discussing the waterfront. But not all the waterfront is nice.
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Response by stevejhx
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008
Nor is it in Manhattan.
We have about a 3 year supply in Manhattan, increasing quickly as demand dries up, as they're mostly aimed at now-nonexistent iBankers, and more construction comes online.
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Response by alpine292
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008
But you just copied and pasted that Manhattan has 11.8 months of inventory.
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Response by nyc10022
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9868
Member since: Aug 2008
> San Diego has 5 years worth of condo inventory:
If San Diego is the comparison, then we have a LOT more to fall. That would be an 80% cut, I believe...
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Response by alpine292
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2771
Member since: Jun 2008
Which one is it steve: 11 months or 3 years? ANd wh do you think it is 3 years when the official number is 11 months?
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Response by stevejhx
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 12656
Member since: Feb 2008
I copied what one "analyst" stated, which was 11,8 months of inventory. But according to UD and me, it would take about 2 years for the current number of listings to be absorbed at the present rate of absorption. In addition, there are thousands of new units coming online. Further, the historic rate of absorption (8,500 units per year) is for the past 10 years, when, given the increases in prices, it could be argued that that rate of absorption is far higher than the long-term historical level. If instead of 8,500 units being absorbed this year, only 3,000 are, then the 9,000 listings on streeteasy represent a 3-year supply.
3,000 is probably low given that units went into contract long before this current crisis started, but 4,500 (the current rate) would easily give a 2-year inventory.
Then, lots of layoffs haven't even started yet: there will be thousands more after BAC absorbs MER and JPM starts to reduce duplicate branches and operations of WaMu in New York.
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Response by aj202
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 49
Member since: Nov 2008
I am quite skeptical of the quoted analyst's expectations of child-less homes . It's easy to look backwards and extrapolate those trends forward, (Wall Street analysts are paid well to do it) but my guess is that current conditions are creating 3-5 year trends that will mean exactly the opposite. You should expect MORE, not less, children moving back in with their parents, (this is what happened in Japan during the 90's and continues today in Europe as well) as homeownership rates recede from slightly less than 70% towards long term averages in the low 60's. Coupled with a rapidly deteriorating employment picture, stagnant real wage growth and inflated real estate prices, in conjunction with the return of standards-based lending, you will shortly be reading MANY more stories of children moving back in with their parents. Sad but true
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Response by w67thstreet
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 9003
Member since: Dec 2008
here's the RE trade for all those who need to buy something....sell NYC apt (bf it gets real ugly) and rent for 20% of your current carrying cost... buy a nice unit in San Diego our of bankruptcy at 20% build cost near the beach... pay $300 rdtrip on jetblue 15x a year to get your unit....stir in a martini and enjoy...while you chk on SE how inventory builds quarter by quarter over the next 2 years... and death and divorces waits for no market :)
you can thank me later alpine292... se ya'll later...
PS. nyc10022 I see malraux and exit2 is back :)
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Response by newbuyer99
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1231
Member since: Jul 2008
aj202 - dead on. I was just a couple years out of college in 2001-2002, and saw this first-hand, over and over. And this time is likely to be much worse, more widespread, and longer.
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yes yes yes.....
Hudson County is a dump. Even if prices fell 75% I would not buy there. 95% of Hudson is the equivalent of a 3rd world country.
They're discussing the prime riverfront areas, close to Manhattan.
San Diego has 5 years worth of condo inventory:
http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2008/dec/24/1n24downtown235834-downtown-feels-effects-housing-/
I know they are discussing the waterfront. But not all the waterfront is nice.
Nor is it in Manhattan.
We have about a 3 year supply in Manhattan, increasing quickly as demand dries up, as they're mostly aimed at now-nonexistent iBankers, and more construction comes online.
But you just copied and pasted that Manhattan has 11.8 months of inventory.
> San Diego has 5 years worth of condo inventory:
If San Diego is the comparison, then we have a LOT more to fall. That would be an 80% cut, I believe...
Which one is it steve: 11 months or 3 years? ANd wh do you think it is 3 years when the official number is 11 months?
I copied what one "analyst" stated, which was 11,8 months of inventory. But according to UD and me, it would take about 2 years for the current number of listings to be absorbed at the present rate of absorption. In addition, there are thousands of new units coming online. Further, the historic rate of absorption (8,500 units per year) is for the past 10 years, when, given the increases in prices, it could be argued that that rate of absorption is far higher than the long-term historical level. If instead of 8,500 units being absorbed this year, only 3,000 are, then the 9,000 listings on streeteasy represent a 3-year supply.
3,000 is probably low given that units went into contract long before this current crisis started, but 4,500 (the current rate) would easily give a 2-year inventory.
Then, lots of layoffs haven't even started yet: there will be thousands more after BAC absorbs MER and JPM starts to reduce duplicate branches and operations of WaMu in New York.
I am quite skeptical of the quoted analyst's expectations of child-less homes . It's easy to look backwards and extrapolate those trends forward, (Wall Street analysts are paid well to do it) but my guess is that current conditions are creating 3-5 year trends that will mean exactly the opposite. You should expect MORE, not less, children moving back in with their parents, (this is what happened in Japan during the 90's and continues today in Europe as well) as homeownership rates recede from slightly less than 70% towards long term averages in the low 60's. Coupled with a rapidly deteriorating employment picture, stagnant real wage growth and inflated real estate prices, in conjunction with the return of standards-based lending, you will shortly be reading MANY more stories of children moving back in with their parents. Sad but true
here's the RE trade for all those who need to buy something....sell NYC apt (bf it gets real ugly) and rent for 20% of your current carrying cost... buy a nice unit in San Diego our of bankruptcy at 20% build cost near the beach... pay $300 rdtrip on jetblue 15x a year to get your unit....stir in a martini and enjoy...while you chk on SE how inventory builds quarter by quarter over the next 2 years... and death and divorces waits for no market :)
you can thank me later alpine292... se ya'll later...
PS. nyc10022 I see malraux and exit2 is back :)
aj202 - dead on. I was just a couple years out of college in 2001-2002, and saw this first-hand, over and over. And this time is likely to be much worse, more widespread, and longer.