The market is so illiquid that it's hard to know what today's price is for these apartments. We know what yesterday's price was. And the overwhelming consensus is that tomorrow's price will be lower than today's price. Today's price is the mystery.
I wouldn't be shocked if some of these apts. sold soon at somewhere near their asking price.....and I wouldn't be shocked if they were still on the market a year from now.
My best guess (and it's no better than a guess) is that most of these apts. will sell for approx. 20% less than the current asking price.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by bfgross
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 247
Member since: Jun 2007
The owners of that apartment on Fifth Avenue were seriously delusional in initially asking $20 million for that apartment. I bet it doesnt go for more than $8mm. The Park Avenue is not really a 9, an 8, maybe, in terms of scale. The St Urban penthouse is really spectacular but you are paying a premium for that library, which, in this market, who knows. Also the layout of the space is very family-unfriendly. Basically a supercharged rockstar or bachelor pad for $10 million. The White House apartment I agree is a good value, with the ask seemingly pretty reasonable, though I doubt there are real park views, and Im guessing some reonvation needs to be done. The Majestic was recently gutted, so a potential buyer must 'love' the job and be willing to pay for it.
I guess I agree with YJBO, some of these apartments will languish and sell quite a bit lower than the current ask prices (my guess is St Urban, Fifth Avenue). I think a few will sell relatively quickly (White House)
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by happyrenter
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 2790
Member since: Oct 2008
mrs blogs:
you've given us a real grab bag of apartments there, each one different. starting at the bottom: the white house apartment may be a good deal at this price (i can't say) but it is hardly a once-in-a-lifetime apartment. it is a standard classic seven in a great building, but if you miss out on it, believe me, there will be plenty more like it. likewise, a small 9 (i agree that it is more of an 8 in terms of size/layout) at 94th and Park is not exactly earth-shattering. might be a good deal, but there are a lot of apartments like that. 1120 5th was hugely overpriced so i don't make to much of the cuts. the other three: majestic, st. urban, and el dorado, are all special apartments. but none of them is anywhere close to a deal yet. if apartments like that get cheap, that will be interesting, but we aren't there yet.
Ignored comment.
Unhide
Response by patient09
almost 17 years ago
Posts: 1571
Member since: Nov 2008
MrsB: bfg and hpr have it right. It is a whole new game in a down mkt. Previous threads discussed this issue as related to the low floor Beresford (3E) and the 2 in the Majestic 8C and 17D. Yes they do seem like great apts, but money is money. It's just not as easy to make an "ego" trade when know you are just pissing money away. I think some of these won't get 1/2 of what they are asking. In an earlier thread, both hpr and I postulated prices 50% cheaper on 3E. The really cool part is that a new listing appears every week of this sort. I may be alone, but I feel it is really important to follow the activity in this type. Imagine if an uber-prime trades for $1,400sft, what does that mean for a classic six with no view on WEA. You must follow the tails, the 10% at the high end and the 10% at the low end. That is how price is determined in between.
'/%3e%3c/g%3e%3c/svg%3e)
The market is so illiquid that it's hard to know what today's price is for these apartments. We know what yesterday's price was. And the overwhelming consensus is that tomorrow's price will be lower than today's price. Today's price is the mystery.
I wouldn't be shocked if some of these apts. sold soon at somewhere near their asking price.....and I wouldn't be shocked if they were still on the market a year from now.
My best guess (and it's no better than a guess) is that most of these apts. will sell for approx. 20% less than the current asking price.
The owners of that apartment on Fifth Avenue were seriously delusional in initially asking $20 million for that apartment. I bet it doesnt go for more than $8mm. The Park Avenue is not really a 9, an 8, maybe, in terms of scale. The St Urban penthouse is really spectacular but you are paying a premium for that library, which, in this market, who knows. Also the layout of the space is very family-unfriendly. Basically a supercharged rockstar or bachelor pad for $10 million. The White House apartment I agree is a good value, with the ask seemingly pretty reasonable, though I doubt there are real park views, and Im guessing some reonvation needs to be done. The Majestic was recently gutted, so a potential buyer must 'love' the job and be willing to pay for it.
I guess I agree with YJBO, some of these apartments will languish and sell quite a bit lower than the current ask prices (my guess is St Urban, Fifth Avenue). I think a few will sell relatively quickly (White House)
mrs blogs:
you've given us a real grab bag of apartments there, each one different. starting at the bottom: the white house apartment may be a good deal at this price (i can't say) but it is hardly a once-in-a-lifetime apartment. it is a standard classic seven in a great building, but if you miss out on it, believe me, there will be plenty more like it. likewise, a small 9 (i agree that it is more of an 8 in terms of size/layout) at 94th and Park is not exactly earth-shattering. might be a good deal, but there are a lot of apartments like that. 1120 5th was hugely overpriced so i don't make to much of the cuts. the other three: majestic, st. urban, and el dorado, are all special apartments. but none of them is anywhere close to a deal yet. if apartments like that get cheap, that will be interesting, but we aren't there yet.
MrsB: bfg and hpr have it right. It is a whole new game in a down mkt. Previous threads discussed this issue as related to the low floor Beresford (3E) and the 2 in the Majestic 8C and 17D. Yes they do seem like great apts, but money is money. It's just not as easy to make an "ego" trade when know you are just pissing money away. I think some of these won't get 1/2 of what they are asking. In an earlier thread, both hpr and I postulated prices 50% cheaper on 3E. The really cool part is that a new listing appears every week of this sort. I may be alone, but I feel it is really important to follow the activity in this type. Imagine if an uber-prime trades for $1,400sft, what does that mean for a classic six with no view on WEA. You must follow the tails, the 10% at the high end and the 10% at the low end. That is how price is determined in between.