The Best (Attempted) Sales of 2009

if you haven't seen it aren't you taking the most important part of appraising a deal out of the equation?

I'm smellin broker talk.

actually since we have been looking for apartments since september and have seen countless spaces i can say with 100 percent certainty that i have never said "now that has to sell soon"

jasonkyle - you are correct...but if seeing the unit was a prequalification to posting this thread I, like many people on SE would have nothing to add since I am not seeing many apartments these days. Rather what I am trying to do is filter out what appear to be great deals so others can critique them.

This apartment appears to be listed about 200k above market. Given location (not ideal) and required renovations, this apartment is probably worth $700/ft at most. Simply put a modest size 2BR in this neighborhood that needs a renovation will be worth $700-900k when everything settles out, not the $1.1-1.3 million during the bubble. Initial poster sounds like a broker to me as well.

lr,

this is not a great deal. the location is nothing special, the apartment is basically a standard issue postwar 2 bedroom. low common charges are perfectly nice but certainly on their own they aren't going to sell an apartment. let it drop to 800k and then argue for it as a deal. right now, no.

and let me add, the common charges are not that low.

bs10065 - I agree with your assessment. This apartment fetches about 900K once one spends $100K-200K on it...

lr,

so now you agree that apartment is worth 700-800k....but thought it was a steal at 1.065M. A little confused....

I never thought it was a steal. I just think it is a great deal on a relative basis to what is out there. I wouldn't touch this market until prices for these types of condos are going for 650psf.

wait--am i reading this right? your definition of a great deal is something that is overpriced by 20% and that you believe will go down in value? are you out of your mind?

happyrenter - No I am not out of my mind. I have purchased many condos in Manhattan, some for as little as $400 psf in the past. My projection is that it will go down to 650psf before bottoming out. REGARDLESS of my projection I DO NOT CREATE THE MARKET. Therefore, I am trying to use this thread as a way of finding out what others think. If I cared about what I thought, I wouldn't be blogging.

but lr,

you just said 1. you think this is a great deal, and 2. you think it is overpriced, and 3. you expect it to plummet in value. did i miss something? please explain how something can be a great deal and overpriced at the same time.

The common charges are indeed very low but the price of the apartment is not. Neither the building nor neighborhood is exciting in any way, but the location may suit a small family with ties to the UES or midtown East.

"rarely available" in the listing description. this building always has a ton of listings, many of them renovated, not estate sales.

this is, for this building, a convertible two. a very spacious, workable convertible two, but if you are looking at comps for the building, the two bedroom units are not configured this way.

this has been, traditionally and for whatever reason, a building where prices had a hard time finding traction (like the Corinthian in Murray Hill). during the upswing those two buildings, along with a few others, finally went along for the price joyride, but as a result there is a lot of room for downward momentum if someone really needs to sell. In late 2000 terms, the two bedrooms with dining area were going for around $650Kish, depending on condition, but they were a good 175 or so sf larger than this. (I looked at six or so apartments in this building).

happyrenter - you just said 1. you think this is a great deal, and 2. you think it is overpriced, and 3. you expect it to plummet in value. did i miss something?

YES

1. It is a great deal for today's market place
2. In today's market even the best deals are negotiable
3. I expect prices to fall 2-3% per month throughout 2009

I see you are wrapped up in your pessimism that you no longer acknowledge these things are all possibilities.

If it needs work (which I can not validate yet but am almost sure it does) then it will take time to do that work. In other words there is a price decay due to time. And the cost of the renovation will exceed the value.

Any other nominations?

yes i nominate apartment 1903 at the plaza

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/372238-condo-1-central-park-south-central-park-south-new-york

seems to fit all of lr's qualifications for a great deal: overpriced, set to rapidly decline in value, and surrounded by other similar units in the same building. run out and buy it, what a deal!

aboutready - I think you are dead on. I saw that as well with both the Corinthian and the St Tropez. I think the price joyride was due to the fact that when there was little inventory available, both of these buildings spiked higher because seller's could really leverage the low carrying costs.

Guys, learn from lr10021. If your a desperate agent with an apartment you gotta sell, start a thread about it on SE to drum up some interest. Who knows: maybe it will work!

So SE thinks there are zero good deals out there right now? I just find that hard to believe--this is a big place with a lot of stuff for sale, some of it has to be interesting and well priced.

there are a few apartments out there that i think could be had for a good price, but none yet where i think the asking price itself is low enough to constitute a good deal at the ask, unfortunately. the combo at 50 riverside drive which just sold might have been a good deal. the unit that went into contract at 755 west end might have been a good deal at less than 1 million, which is what we have been led to believe it sold for (not what it was asking). if i thought there were great deals out there, i'd probably be buying them.

actually, i take it back. if i had to buy an apartment right now, i could do worse than the spectacular one bedroom at 39 5th avenue which was just lowered from 1.299 (supported by a comp in the same line at that price) to 999k. i think it will probably trade substantially lower, but it is a truly great apartment in a truly great building in a truly great neighborhood with an absolutely perfect renovation asking 25% below comps. that's not too bad.

alpine292 - you are a genious. how many brokers have you called out? i recall during the last real estate recession it was the brokers that were there to snatch up cheap product. anyway we are getting off base...

happyrenter - please provide links so people can jump quite easily.

Sorry, this is NOT a good deal. $832 psf is not cheap, we're already finding east side in the $700s.
And if this needs work..

Plus, this location SU-UCKS.

You do NOT want to be on the far side of 2nd avenue in the low 60s. Besides the bridge exit blocks, 2nd avenue is a huge obstacle separating you from the trains and such. 2nd ave backs up into hell at most times of day.

There is a good reason the far east 60s are pretty much the cheapest part of the UES.

> i recall during the last real estate recession it was the brokers that were there to snatch up cheap
> product.

If they were real estate geniuses, why would they be brokers?

lostintransit - there are two psychologies when it comes to bears in any market. Specifically as they relate to views of the market in question (they can be totally different in their day to day life). The first is the real cynic; Questions everything to the nth degree while doing due diligence, extrapolates information from others and uses negative information to his/her advantage, etc. The second is the pessimist; Despite and often high level of intelligence they find it hard to see positives, they always feel down and out when times are good and are overly joyous when times are bad, they don't think "now" is ever a good time to own, and they usually only find flaws. I was thinking that happrenter was a pessimist but his recent posts suggest he is just a bit of a cynic, like me. We can learn from the cynics, the pessimists are just usally always wrong.

happyrenter - what do you think is a good entry point for 39 fifth? No point talking about units in contract...

nyc10022 - If they were real estate geniuses, why would they be brokers?

what are you talking about...were you there the last time around? who said anything about being real estate geniouses? They were in the right place at the right time with inside knowledge. do you think all new money is due to genious?