Interesting Mort Zuckerman interview...

isnt he the same guy that got suckered by Madoff for 10's of millions?

I recall in my NYMAG roundtable discussion about 2 1/2 months ago that during the debate at NY Mags office downtown, I was asked by Johanna R, "Noah, what are you advising buyers that have time or no pressure to buy by a certain deadline"..

and I responded, "I advised them to wait at least 6-8 months and watch their price point as the market's initial fierce adjustment takes place"

Immediately, Dottie Herman & Melissa Cohen were like, 'no, no, no, you shouldnt be trying to time this market'.

Well, turns out those buyers are very happy they did wait. When the tide goes out, you see who is swimming naked! This market is very illiquid.

http://nymag.com/realestate/features/52423/

http://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications_papers/studies/recession_perspective/index.cfm

good link petr! Thanks.

>isnt he the same guy that got suckered by Madoff for 10's of millions? <

petrfitz, nice headline bur perhaps reading the content of the articles would had been helpful to you.

First, Mort had never heard of Madoff until the scandal broke.

Second, the losses attributable to Madoff pertain to his $300 plus million charitable trust and not his personal wealth. 10% of the charitable fund assets were directed to Madoff by the investment management company without his knowledge.

Thanks for the link. Mort calls them the way he sees them and is definitely in a position to see better than most, the trends of the broad economy and specially those of NY.

so we should listen how to spend our money from a guy who doesnt know where his goes?

>so we should listen how to spend our money from a guy who doesnt know where his goes?<

You are free to do as you please. Mort has made billions in real estate so he just might know a thing or two about the subject. The less brilliant & connected may benefit from what he has to say. Personally, his insight parallels the loud and clear message of the equity and fixed income markets which you are also free to dismiss.

Sadly, it was the charitable trust that lost value which means, less will be available to schools, hospitals, the arts and other institutions which he supports. Based on his comments, the investment management company hasn't heard the last of this.

petrfitz - I was looking at that chart at Fed bank at Minneapolis, and specifically the chart of GDP comparing this recession to others in terms of severity. It will be interesting to check this same chart in 6 months after we get the next 2 GDP #s, because they are going to be awful.

Did you see EUR/ASIA ship rates hit 0!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/4229198/Shipping-rates-hit-zero-as-trade-sinks.html

"Immediately, Dottie Herman & Melissa Cohen were like, 'no, no, no, you shouldnt be trying to time this market'. "

Yes, you should just ALWAYS buy.

These were the geniuses denied that RE would ever do anything but go up... and now they're the experts on how it will decline.

UD - this is data from Asia. Is there any data that speaks to shipping to Asia?

"buyers to wait at least 6 months, and sellers should sell now"

so if everybody follows suit that means 0 transactions, that would be so much fun to see!

Dottie Herman was right on the button....NOT!!!!

i know it is. Global trade has virtually stopped the past few months. Im not sure about shipments to Asia but still it is quite a headline

You guys are missing the most interesting guest on this program, Niall Ferguson, an author and historian who makes a compelling comparison between New York today and Venice in the 15th century. He says that the financial industry will not likely ever return to its former heights, but New York will remain a center for culture, so it will remain a more interesting place than, say, Detroit. If such an observation proves accurate, you can be certain that values are not only in decline, but they won't recover the same as in past downturns. Maybe Manhattan has peaked economically after all.

Ferguson's book is an interesting read, pbs is running a series as well based on it. I lived in NY when many now "hip" downtown hood's were bastions for artist's, musicians and people on the fringes that enjoyed city life. I met my first wife at the Mudd club on White street in 1981, that's when you would see Warhol, Jagger and Bowie all holding court at some random punk show. The streets were absolutely desolate, no cabs and the walk back to my place on Houston and Norfolk was downright scary.

That said I could make a living selling handmade silk-screened shirts to record stores and the like. My rent for 1000 square feet was $300 per month and I had two roommates-an easy life for an aspiring "rock-star". My neighbors thought I was "loco" to pay that much rent!lol.

My point is I just don't see us slipping back to that kind of enviroment unless of course this recession turns into depression that rivals what we saw in the 30's.

I can, however, imagine a New York based more on its museums, theaters, and exhibits. (Don't think I normally associate Venice with hip clubs!)

Finance will come back - but much smaller than before. In the Internet age it doesn't have to be nearly as concentrated in one location as it has been. Even now, Wall Street is increasingly outsourcing investment analysis to India. Stamford, CT has UBS and will soon have Royal Bank of Scotland as well. Constant evolution.