prices per sq foot

the stock market is at 2002 levels - so how long will it take for prices to reach 650 per sq foot to match the market values?

My friend is a RE broker who is actually in touch with reality. He said the magic number to get movement now is $1000/square foot. He said he had 3 listings that were all in good downtown areas and obviously overpriced.

As soon as he had them lowered to $1000/sq ft, there was a lot of action and all 3 are currently in contract for very close to the new asking prices.

Not sure if your analysis is relevant.

$1000 in good downtown areas...what about listings in not so good areas ??

I previously noted this on another thread about unrealistic sellers:

"Just been checking the new apartments listed on NATEFIND--I'm still amazed that so many of the condos that look halfway decent are continue to be priced north of $1500 - $1700 psft. Why do they even bother . . . do they just enjoy keeping their units in pristine condition for random curious strangers to walk through? Quite discouraging . . .

There's no movement in co-ops unless it's under $1000 psf. Was you friend selling condos? That's the only way your comment would make sense. Any co-op that's moving Downtown has to be priced at less $800 psf or less.

On the UES, I've seen a lot of coops in the $850 psf range, and even that is dropping. To be aggressive and more a place on UES I think you need to move to $750-800 psf, and that is assuming its a good apartment. Condos are higher, but no way anything will move above $1,000 psf, at least not in the price range I've been following ($1M-$2M).

nycjunior1, where do you get your opinion from? Here are just a selection of recent in contract co-ops priced at very close to $1000/square foot or over that are in contract.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/180300-coop-470-west-24th-street-chelsea-new-york
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/348777-coop-261-broadway-tribeca-new-york
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/189469-coop-2-charlton-street-soho-new-york

I don't find kingdeka completely in touch with reality. I think prices will have to be substantially lower than that to be attractive. But the fair comparison would be sales history in the bldg you're looking at, and calculate 40-50% off late 2007-early 2008 peak, or 2003-2004 prices, whichever you prefer. I think that's where we are heading, fast.

50% off? so fast? I doubt it. If you could supply some proof with what you think then that would hold more weight than just what you think.

Do you have any data to prove that's accurate, trompiloco, or is that just what you would like it to be?

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/350330-coop-250-mercer-street-noho-new-york

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/231137-coop-50-east-8th-street-greenwich-village-new-york

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/360544-coop-175-west-12th-street-greenwich-village-new-york

To put that in perspective, there's a bldg. I've been following in the UES, 444 East 86th, within the catchment area for very good PS 290. There are several 2bd/2bt size approx 1100 sqft currently on sale there jockeying for position between 995K and 825K depending on floor, condition, terrace or not, etc. The most expensive, a very high floor one that's been renovated triple mint sold for 600K and change in 2004. So that's what I would offer (I won't until next year) for an un-renovated apt. on a high floor (which is what this one was in 2004) or for one in good condition on a lower floor. That comes at about 550 sq ft.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/349629-coop-359-west-29th-street-chelsea-new-york

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/333217-coop-77-seventh-avenue-chelsea-new-york

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/372850-coop-161-west-16th-street-chelsea-new-york

condos:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/368784-condo-100-reade-street-tribeca-new-york

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/344476-condo-650-sixth-avenue-chelsea-new-york

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/356101-condo-260-park-avenue-south-flatiron-new-york

condos:

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/351225-condo-128-east-7th-street-east-village-new-york

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/173302-condo-555-west-23rd-street-chelsea-new-york

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/348531-condo-344-w-23rd-st-chelsea-new-york

kingdeka, you are looking at 1 beds under $1mm downtown. studios and 1 beds are the only thing moving right now because comforming mortgages are still available at that price point and financing is not as tough. bigger apartments are only moving at a discount to that.

kingdeka, these are list prices not contract prices.

SpecialK, did you bother loooking at the first few condo samples? the condos are over $1MM, around $1.7.

Next time, try thoroughly reading what someone posts before you reply with a comment that makes you look unintelligent.

And who said anything about price qualifications?

Trompilico, the bldg you are looking at is a co-op in an area that is not exactly appealing to a lot of people, or at least to people I know. East of 1st Ave? Not exactly ideal. And the maintenance, although not high, is also not low.

You are looking at a very specific bldg that does not represent a lot of inventory.

Good luck to your quest for $500/sq ft. I hope you get it.

on the UWS you can find many apartment in the 800 - 850 sq ft price range in the ps 199 school district.
I just think they are still over priced and will fall to below 700.
Based on this economy any sale between 2006 and before 2009 is irrevelant.

sorry about that typo!!!

iamlooking, there is no way you can find out what the in contract price is.

but from a cross sample of the few examples i provided, you can see that when the price was dropped to be reflective of at or about $1000/sq ft, the listing soon went into contract. those apts that were newly listed at or near $1000/sq ft went into contract fairly quickly.

you can make any statement now and use the economy as an example, but of course, reality is often different. I wish Mercedes Benz would reduce the cost of the S class to $20,000 due to the economy, but I doubt that is a reality.

facts are stronger proof than what any of us think.

rbs, be careful about the data supplied by real estate brokers and streeteasy.

Many RE brokers with co-ops (which are extremely common in Manhattan) will artifically inflate the price per square foot for apartments, as there are no legal consequences to accurately represent the square footage in co-ops. If a co-op is around 720 sq ft accurately, the RE broker will advertise it as being 800 sq ft, giving the illusion of a lower price per sq ft. It could be advertised at 800 sq ft, significantly altering the price per square foot.

Condos are usually more reliable with price per square foot, as they cannot lie about the square feet and legally are bound to be accurate.

kingdeka, if you are vain enough to think that i am going to diligently look at every single link you post in detail... well, i'll be polite and say don't hold your breath. virtually all of your posts are for 1 beds under $1mm. maybe a few of them are not, but you seriously think someone is going to look at every single link out of 15? gimme a break. i can easily post a TON of links for apartments downtown that are ASKING way less than $1000 and still are not selling.

if you think $1,000 is a fair price, buy a place. you don't need to convince me. $1,000 is a rip-off in my mind and i think those people will be underwater before they even close!

kingdeka, just show us the link to the 1 bed you are trying to sell...

Newb question here: "there is no way you can find out what the in contract price is."

But what's the price they show in Acris?

Kingdeka - several of your listings are a month or more old in contract time. However, here are moy counter comps. ANd we should all keep in mind that anything going to contract in the last 5 months is going to close for at least $10-30K under the listed ask at contract. Also, an honest assessment of comps from summer 08 onwards will show prices downtown co-op prices going from $1000/psf down to about $900-850 in September/October and continuing down to the $600/700K psf range. Also, several of the buildings you listed, such as 250 Mercer have condop rules with renting, which is why there is a premium over a typical co-op with sublet restictions that prevent a shareholder from generating income. That's why it's more relevant to separate analyses of the co-op and condo markets.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/155670-coop-3-hanover-square-financial-district-new-york

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/364511-coop-142-east-16th-street-gramercy-park-new-york

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/229171-coop-145-east-15th-street-gramercy-park-new-york

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/357448-coop-333-east-14th-street-gramercy-park-new-york

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/300988-coop-7-east-14th-street-flatiron-new-york

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/365182-coop-20-east-9th-street-greenwich-village-new-york

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/55931-coop-210-sixth-avenue-soho-new-york

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/360896-coop-145-east-15th-street-gramercy-park-new-york

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/357438-coop-142-east-16th-street-gramercy-park-new-york

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/164797-coop-88-bleecker-street-noho-new-york

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/351678-coop-60-east-9th-street-greenwich-village-new-york

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/292836-coop-50-east-8th-street-greenwich-village-new-york

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/345799-coop-225-west-25th-street-chelsea-new-york - the closing for this will end up making the ppsf under 800

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/377104-coop-245-east-24th-street-kips-bay-new-york

nycjunior1, how about condos?

As I said earlier, co-ops manipulate square footage and are not true reflectives of price per square foot. Can you supply condos? Or are they all going to be co-ops that are not held accountable to square footage?

Waiting...

nycjunior1, none of my examples were more than 3 months old, meaning they were all in contract AFTER the September economic meltdown. This is not Florida, closings do not happen in 30 days here.

Nice try, though.

acris is closing price.

nycjunior1,
i just randomly chose one of your co-ops as an example:

225 west 25th street apt 2J:

In contract price: $595,000
LISTED sq ft: 725
LISTED ppsf: $820

however, as it is a co-op, the listing price per sq ft is not accurate. If you take the measurements from the floorplan, add up the room dimensions and calculate the bathroom as being about 8x7, which is being generous, the ACTUAL SQ FT IS only 603, meaning the apt is more accurately $1000/sq ft.

I do not have the time, energy or care to analyze every other one, but you see what's going on.
That was completely randomly selected.

And these are pretty much all closed or in contract listings, so they are delayed info on the market. Current listings reflect lower ppsf or similar. At least the ones that are moving do.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/345799-coop-225-west-25th-street-chelsea-new-york

go ahead, add up the square footage yourself.

I'm not making this stuff up.
I prefer facts to show me what the market is doing, not what some people on streeteasy wish or want the market to do.

that's contract. it will close for at least 29K less

20k

COndos are irrelevant from my argument. I'm only commenting on co-ops because co-ops have more restrictions and less possibibility of rental income - hence the lower price. I already said you were completely correct with condos.

Nice try yourself. Pay closer attention to details. YOu sent these but actually...

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/231137-coop-50-east-8th-street-greenwich-village-new-york this one eithr closed or went to contract back in September!!

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/360544-coop-175-west-12th-street-greenwich-village-new-york - this was back in December.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/333217-coop-77-seventh-avenue-chelsea-new-york - this was back in the beginning of December, meaning offer was accepted in November.

how can you say what it will close for? are you psychic? do you have the contract in front of you?

stick with facts. when you make assumptions, you wind up looking like an even bigger idiot. There is always going to be negotiating, but the point was that $1000/sq ft is the point where movement happens.

You've already done enough damage to your point, nycjunior1. Time to call it quits on this one.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/368784-condo-100-reade-street-tribeca-new-york - this is a condo in Tribeca. Not part of my discussion. As I said, I agree with you on condo pricing.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/344476-condo-650-sixth-avenue-chelsea-new-york - high end Chelsea condo

Actually, most of your examples were condos. SO we are discussing totally different things.

DO you disagree with my comps for the co-op segment of the market?

Just wait till sellers/developers get desperate... look at what happened to Toll Brother's Williamsburg Condos (30% off sale). That's what happens when sellers get desperate :)

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/300988-coop-7-east-14th-street-flatiron-new-york

another one of your randomly selected "examples", nycjunior1

advertised as being 650 sq ft
CLOSED for $485,000

ACTUAL SQ FT: 534 (including bathroom being generously 8x7) and generous closet space

ACTUAL PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT: $908.24

AbatementBS, who knows what will happen? Probably prices will continue to drop. But that's not the story right now.

SpecialK and trompilico stated that my $1000/sq ft was not accurate. I provided numerous examples that it is. nycjunior1 attempted to match my proof with alternates, but as I said earlier, co-ops are not always accurately advertised sq ft. You have to do the math yourself.

kingdeka if your strategy of winning an argument is to make yourself look like a rude ass, you win. You happened to randomly pick the one link that was a slight exception (which I explained.) ANd yes. I can tell you with absolute certainty that any apartment that similar to the ones I've posted will close at least $10,000-$30,000 less than the asking price these days. If you look at the market you will see exactly the same thing. I've just finished successfully selling my co-op (12/31 closing) so I'm not far removed from the market and I'm paying close attention for a fast buy.

All I can say is, unless it's a building that is very special or a condop or has good sublet policy, no co-op is moving unless it's much less than $1000 psf.

word.

This duel of links is getting a bit thick. Frankly, kingdeka, there's only one thing left to say: Mercedes S series didn't appreciate 400% in 13 year, so there's no reason for them to fall precipitously. Although they're not selling like warm cookies these days, either. Whereas real estate in NYC... you either know how to spell B-U-B-B-L-E or not.

As you yourself would agree floor plans are not accurate. Why do you put so much faith in them. You have to see the apts. I've seen several of the ones I listed and measured my self. Plus, even if all the co-ops that list close at 750 psf are really 850 psf, that still means they've come down, from a higher price point that was not accurate. My main point is that prices are declining.

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/164797-coop-88-bleecker-street-noho-new-york

another exmaple:
ADVERTISED AS 510 sq ft
IN CONTRACT $499,000
ACTUAL SQ FT: 440

price per sq ft: $1136

You can't figure out the actual square foot from that!! And I could show you hundreds of condo floor plans that don't add up too. You have no clue.

The market is always moving, and I think we can all agree that the market is not going up... so there's only one other direction I know the market can move in :)

Are you blind?!!!!

http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/164797-coop-88-bleecker-street-noho-new-york Is in contract at listing prcie of $400,000!!! Not $499,000!!!! Learn to read. ALso, that mean's it closed even lower.

nycjunior1, your main point was NOT that prices were falling, but rather to try to discredit me. You failed at that.

I don't take things personally, I rely on facts not opinion to gage what the market is doing. I am looking myself at buying, and want to know the REALITY of the real estate market, not what some people that post on streeteasy think it is, should be or will be.

You have to be an educated consumer and to block out extremes on both sides. That's why I discredit streeteasy bloggers who claim $500/sq ft is reality and the real estate brokers who claim that the market is picking up and that I shouldn't try to time the market, blah blah blah. You have the responsibility to yourself to know what's really going on.

I don't like when people say things and pass it off as a matter of fact, when there is no proof to back up their statements.

I would hope that people see right now, what I have...that $1000/sq ft for most of downtown is a very accurate gage of the market right now. Who knows what that will be in 6 months or a year, but it is accurate right now.

I offered you tons of proof and you not only ignored it, but then decided to make up new data to suit your own ends, and you didn't even quote the correct numbers that were right in front of you. You are correct though - I did not discredit you, you discredited yourself. And I never set out to do so. Don't be so vain.

I never said floor plans were not accurate. I said what the brokers say in regards to square foot is not accurate. Most of the floorplans are supplied by the bldg, taken by an appraiser, etc, so has more credibility and accuracy than what the broker says.

Most of the time, they have to be more accurate than just what the sq ft that the broker says it is. Don't trust them. Take measurements yourself. Then you can find out what the price per square foot is.

And tromplico, your statement about Mercedes Benz S class doesn't make any sense. It's not about bubbles or appreciation. It's about supply and demand. If there were always a demand for prime Manhattan real estate, no matter what the price, bubbles would be irrelevant.

It's not always what goes up, must come down. It's about supply and demand. If there's no longer the demand at the price level, then it will come down.

nycjunior1, I really feel sorry for you. Now I know who the bottom 10% of everything is.

I showed how your proof was erroneous, that the numbers were not accurate. I randomly chose 3 of your "rebuttals" and showed that the sq feet being advertised was NOT accurate and skewed the price per square foot.

But nevermind, any rational, intelligent person would have seen that.

Real estate brokers will see you coming a mile away. You'll walk right into their trap. They'll say a co-op is 1000 square feet, prices it at $525,000, and you will think you're getting the price you've been waiting for, around $525/sq ft. They'll even give you a floorplan with fairly accurate measurements that only add up to 500 sq ft, but you'll ignore that and think you're getting a deal.

Really, I have nothing to say. You are either so blinded by your argument that you can't see or are really really dumb. Either way, I do not envy you. Good luck in life.

A lot of factors go into the projected square footage of apartments. Kingdeka, according to your square foot calculations based on floor plans... many of the links you posted for coops are actually close to $1,300 psf (and we all know how ridiculous that would be)

OK - enough of the banter Kingdeka and nycjunior1 - you guys need to take the edge off a little.
You both have points with some validity.

I'm just trying to see if others think that 700 per sq ft is a reasonable offer for a 1500 - 2000 sq ft apartment on the UWS.
I think so but brokers are telling me I'm "bottom fishing".
I really don't care what brokers think. I just want a 5.5 to 6 room apartment for under 1.2
I'm not sure how much longer to wait - 3 months? 6 months?

Wait as long as you have to... I am not buying until the end of this year

rbs,
Don't worry, grab a drink, summer is almost here.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5hbiyctyKc8

Here Kingdeka, one of your links
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/189469-coop-2-charlton-street-soho-new-york

Contract price: 749,000
Listed sf: 700

Square footage from floor plan (including generous amounts for bathroom and closets): 550 sf

So... according to kingdeka... this co-op is in contract for $1362 psf? yea... right...

thanks abatementsBS and junkman.
we've been living in a rental for almost two years now and i'm just itching to own my own home again. There just seems to be too big a spread between the sellers perception and the reality of nyc's current real estate economy.
i'd rather wait antoher 3-9 more month and get what we really want, then move into something i regret.
its just been a long haul.

rbs: might be late to this thread, but there have been several sixes on UWS, (high WEA area) trading $850psf or so for the last several weeks.

rbs, sit tight, the market is definitely moving your way. there are a ton of people out there who are fresh listings asking for the moon. listing that have been on the block for 3-4 months or more are aggressively dropping price. i think we will see ave prices drop to about 800/sq ft by year-end and then $650-700/sq ft by 2010. beyond that is anyone's guess.

rbs:
1 example of what has traded, I think would have met your specs.
http://www.streeteasy.com/nyc/sale/375930-coop-334-west-86th-street-upper-west-side-new-york

I'm a buyer...
I'm making a wish....(500sq/ft,500sq/ft,500sq/ft)
I'm blowing out the candles.
Bring me my prizes!!!

Watch what you wish for...with this wish comes a curse. (blood,murain,locust,boils, well you know the drill) We better start packing, we might be leaving Egypt after all! WHERE YOUR G-D NOW CORCORAN!!!

kingdeka, you make me laugh. seriously. I am laughing out loud at how silly you are. thank you for your comedy. you truly are a foole of the highest caliber.

I apologize to the rest of the board for that back and forth non-sense, I know the rest of you can see the evidence plainly and understand the point I was trying to make.

I don't understand what you're laughing at. I followed the conversation and he made you look like a fool.

Although I think he was too quick to call you an idiot, I see now that he was probably right.

He made me look by a fool by contradicting himself every step of the way? By making up sizes of apts by incomplete floor plans to suit his own ends, by not even understanding what we were discussing? Wow. I'm a little worried about you too.