Change of perspective to get sellers to wake up is what we need

" I prefer, we are 10% higher than higher than 2003 comps, or we 80% above the beginning of the rally in 1999."

Putting lipstick on a pig is not going to accomplish anything.

Look, if sellers don't want to sell at these prices and they don't need to, you can't force them to sell. Due to the coops I don't think there are that many distressed sellers.

Speaking as a buyer, I say "good idea", let's look at the price appreciation since say 1999, because that will show that going back to 2004 is not enough. I don't begrudge anyone inflation gains, but a bubble is a bubble, and even 40% off the peak may still be too high. Who knows...the market will tell.

I wonder if the coop requirements for financial stability , large money down etc. really protect Manhattan from a crash. Presumably the same rules were in place in the last crash in late 80s,

I like the perspective.

In behavioral finance this is what is referred to as "framing." Putting the price in perspective.

One of the toughest things a good broker has to do is to convince their sellers that 2008 prices just won't work in 2009. Sellers hate to think prices are now down 20%. So yes, emphasize to their clients, the sellers, that prices are still up 200%+ since 1997. Note how much better they have done versus hapless stock market investors over the same period. Lock in that profit before it withers away like what has happened with stocks.

Any broker worth his or her salt must be at least one part psychologist.

Yeah Topper, but equally, as a buyer, one can say be wary if the potential sales price, even if off peak substantially, still reflects an enormous (arguably unsustainable bubble) price increase since the late 90s. This cuts both ways.

Yup.

I'm a potential buyer as well.

But if I were a seller...

I don't think you need to tell sellers anything. Time will work against them.

It may speed things up slightly for brokers to say to sellers "you will not see 2005-2008 prices again anytime soon", but I think most sellers understand that now. At least sellers I talk to. Every owner or seller who I've spoken to recently understands that (i) pricing is down 20% or more and (ii) it's still falling.

That said, I also know two sellers who have pulled their listings. NOT because they want to, but because they have to. They are stuck in their apartments. They wanted to trade up, but because they are underwater it is unfeasible. Similar to Alpine's situation, I would guess. They unfortunately don't have the cash to trade up.

I think the problem now is a serious dearth of offers, at any price. The offers that are coming in, granted, are probably at 2004-2005 levels, but even those pricing levels won't hold given inventory of 11,000 and growing.

There is no way to determine market value in a falling market with rising inventory. People guess and some bite but that's not a market. If they guess aggressively, more will bite. If enough sellers price sufficiently low to entice enough buyers we may then begin to see signs of appreciation. Then we begin to determine new market value. Is capitulation the word I'm looking for?

Anyway I'm, no expert, but I do have a strong sense that all the indicators point to a market in collapse. Sorry, sellers.

patient - I am so tired of hearing the discussion,

You can't force anyone to sell you their apartment. Free market on both sides.

Many people will just pull their listing and sell at a better time, when buyers are more realistic about NYC's global importance and high quality of life and decide to stop waiting and pony up the bucks. Personally, I think prices will be at or above last year's high in a few years again. There is only one New York.

Did you hear they are going to start rebuilding the World Trade Center soon. Wow!!

"when buyers are more realistic about NYC's global importance and high quality of life and decide to stop waiting and pony up the bucks"

Wowee. You can't medicate away this kind of denial.

Watching NY real estate right now is like watching a slow-moving train wreck. The first few cars have derailed, more derailing everyday (ie selling at lower prices), but there are hundreds of cars still moving toward derailment but the happy passengers (owners) apparently can't see what's happening ahead on the tracks. (I am working on putting this in stanzas with music, quiet violins and the occasional ka-boom of symbols, which ka-booms shall come more and more frequently as the cars derail).

prices will be at $250/sq foot or less when this is all said and done - would not bid more than that now - you will thank me later.

anon3

250 ? that's total nonsense or just talk of a bitter renter LOL

make that and/or talk of a bitter renter L O L