The rent-to-buy ratio...

Well, prices are down 20-30%, but so are rents it seems... so not anytime soon.

I have to figure rents will start to flatten first, maybe in 6 months, and prices will decline for a couple years after that.

So, probably at the bottom you'll have the lowest ratio... 2-3 years.

Rents are down 5% to 10% year-over-year, not 20% to 30%!

http://www.tregny.com/manhattan_rental_market_report

New York price/rent ratios are still WAY too high today - particularly in the context of commercial price/rent ratios today which are close to 10. (And the commerical rents are "net" while the residential price/ratios are "very gross!")

Bottom line: New York residential prices will fall substantially over the next couple years.

topper, that report states that the numbers don't include concessions. which i believe, particularly at the higher end, have become fairly significant.

Thanks - I didn't realize that, aboutready. (Just looked at the tables.) That's pretty interesting.

Good point - one month free is like a 8.3% discount.

Yes, a_g, but keep in mind that that discount is a one-time event. Presumably, assuming a one-year renewal that discount would not recur and you would then pay at least the full indicated 12-month rate.

although topper, i'm actually hearing of renewal leases being negotiated. i can't recall that EVER happening. and do those numbers even enter the database? they can't, right, because they never officially are rereleased as vacancies.